Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[strawbs]

i think china would have been the biggest factor in them saying no. now that's being brought to heel the chances are higher.

100% agree with this.  In fact, it's interesting that China exchanges being reigned in magically happened 4 weeks prior to the ETF announcement, no?  Seems like someone at the SEC might have made a few phone calls...   

I think unregulated exchanges will be a major concern for SEC.

[JayJuanGee]

or you can take the view that the last 8 years have had a party in power who has traditionally been attached to the east coast banking cartel and therefore not interested in anything new.

maybe, but regulators aren't in the business of running headfirst towards innovation. they should be conservative. in the great scheme of things there's really no hurry to get a bitcoin etf approved. it's only a tiny subset of people who are waiting for it.

the gld etf took long enough to approve and that was the definition of no brainer.

I agree with your general inclination here, ECB.  Generally, government officials are going to attempt to call balls and strikes rather than attempting to side with one side or another.  If the ETF seems practical and matters are going in a kind of stable direction, and all the shenanigans and risk factors are reasonably accounted, then they will approve the matter.

Sure, some SEC officials from the USA could have made some attempts to investigate into the matter regarding what is going on in China, but that would not mean that SEC officials have any kind of hard-on to attempt to get BTC in such a place that ETF approval would be more likely.  On the other hand, on the margins, all kinds  of shit can happen and hints can be made regarding the SEC thinking that could cue in PBOC folks to take action - yet even though these kinds of various interventions and investigations take place, none of that adds up to any kind of premeditation or consipiracy to attempt to get the ETF approved - because when push comes to shove, overall the US government is luke warm, at best, regarding any kind of legitimacy of BTC, including jumping into a scenario that recognizes BTC in the form of an ETF.

[r0ach]

Yes, that's the one. Years ago, I shouted down bitcoin disbelievers telling them that 'of course the block size will be increased by the time they get full'. I didn't dream that there would be others who would resist this idea. Mea culpa.

If you accept my thesis that bitcoin is not a store of value, any block size in which the function of bitcoin is to act as a settlement network is useless because:

1)  the main point of a settlement network is acting as a store of value

2)  precious metals function as a store of value far superior than bitcoin does

This means there is virtually zero difference between 1 MB and 10 MB blocks.  I did some calculations to try and quantify how much TPS bitcoin needs in order to not be a settlement network (since it has no value as a settlement network), and came up with the number 5000.  I then looked up how much TPS Visa pushes and...low and behold, peaks at 4000 TPS a day.

So my general conclusion on this entire mess is, bitcoin has no value without a functioning lightning network type of system that allows it to expand beyond a settlement network into the neighborhood of something like 5000 TPS.  This means arguing over 1 MB, 2 MB, and 4 MB blocks has no relevance to anything.  However, someone would need to figure out a safe base block size in order to support 5000 TPS for when numerous people all close channels simultaneously.

[DieJohnny]

bitcoin has no value without a functioning lightning network type of system

Might I refer you to..... THE LAST 8 YEARS......

[r0ach]

bitcoin has no value without a functioning lightning network type of system

Might I refer you to..... THE LAST 8 YEARS......

Of speculation...just like...



The rubber has to meet the road eventually.  Bitcoin's main use was the drug market, which would give each coin a value of something like $10-100 at most.  The rest of that is all expectation of future growth.  For those expectations to be realized, it will have to expand TPS beyond that of a settlement network or blow up.

[slap]

My teenage niece bought shoes with btc. So. Moon?

[AlexGR]

i think china would have been the biggest factor in them saying no. now that's being brought to heel the chances are higher.

I think the chances are actually closer to 2-5% than "<25%" of the market analysts etc etc.

The establishment / authorities / countries, have traditionally never done anything to pump BTC and that's not going to change now. But they have hammered it down hundreds of times.

BTC is rising by itself, slowly but surely, *despite* the fact that it faces government and regulatory resistance. And it will continue to do so - even when the ETF is denied (which I consider almost certain).

[arcanaaerobics]

My teenage niece bought shoes with btc. So. Moon?

What the Fart.  
Where can you buy shoe with bitcoin?
Overstock still taking our bits for shoes?

[becoin]

even when the ETF is denied (which I consider almost certain).

I hope it'll be denied. Dump will be excellent opportunity to buy cheap coins.

[arcanaaerobics]

even when the ETF is denied (which I consider almost certain).

I hope it'll be denied. Dump will be excellent opportunity to buy cheap coins.

My thinking exactly.
Lets get it denied so us poor guys can keep getting our coins and not drive us further into the poor house.
ETF will only make the rich richer and the semi poor guy to try and buy over 1 bitcoin unreachable.

[r0ach]

I think the chances are actually closer to 2-5% than "<25%" of the market analysts etc etc.

It depends.  The wildcard variable in this situation is how badly the malevolent, enemy of mankind, Jewish bankers want to try and force everyone into a digital cash only slave system.  If they believe people getting accustomed to bitcoin helps them in this process to fiscally rape you, then hello bitcoin ETF.

It's possible they might believe adding a bitcoin ETF will also keep people out of the metals market and prevent a run on their fractional reserve Comex.  I think that would be a stupid assumption since if Bitcoin went to like $10,000, people like me would be wiping out all the metals that exist, but you never know what goes on in the mind of the shylock.

[prophetx]

or you can take the view that the last 8 years have had a party in power who has traditionally been attached to the east coast banking cartel and therefore not interested in anything new.

maybe, but regulators aren't in the business of running headfirst towards innovation. they should be conservative. in the great scheme of things there's really no hurry to get a bitcoin etf approved. it's only a tiny subset of people who are waiting for it.

the gld etf took long enough to approve and that was the definition of no brainer.

just another reason for dismantling the bureaucracy

[r0ach]

just another reason for dismantling the bureaucracy

Make world great again

[AlexGR]

I think the chances are actually closer to 2-5% than "<25%" of the market analysts etc etc.

It depends.  The wildcard variable in this situation is how badly the malevolent, enemy of mankind, Jewish bankers want to try and force everyone into a digital cash only slave system.  If they believe people getting accustomed to bitcoin helps them in this process to fiscally rape you, then hello bitcoin ETF.

All the systems that act as intermediaries to people actually owning their bitcoins, are quite vulnerable from state intervention. I think China is big because people used exchanges as they would a broker account. Few moved their coins to their wallets - if they ever had one (aside from the exchange interface they used). So this made exchanges vulnerable. An ETF could present a similar situation / danger, although it could make it easier for people to buy.

It's possible they might believe adding a bitcoin ETF will also keep people out of the metals market and prevent a run on their fractional reserve Comex.  I think that would be a stupid assumption since if Bitcoin went to like $10,000, people like me would be wiping out all the metals that exist, but you never know what goes on in the mind of the shylock.

I don't really think BTC has the dynamic to reduce metal demand, as its marketcap is way too small. Even at 10x current price it's too small... Gold production (only mines / no recycled) requires more than 120 billion $$$ per year to absorb while bitcoin production (~650k coins) only takes 0.7bn usd. It's a drop in the ocean in comparison (all BTCs mined per year can be bought with the money needed for ~2 days worth of global gold mining). And we are not even counting silver, palladium, platinum, etc.

The fluctuations on metal price and metal production put a much bigger strain on buyers capacity (=wallet) to absorb production. A "small" increase of annual production in the range of 100 extra tons, can require a further 4bn USD in cash to buy that. Or a price spike of 50$, can make the annual production require 5+ bn USD extra cash. If you combine events like +200 tons output and +100$ in price within a year (both quite possible scenarios from year-to-year), you are suddenly dealing with increased cash requirements of an extra 20bn to buy the annual gold mine production - which is an amount that ...eclipses the BTC marketcap. And it's just a "small" fluctuation, in the market dynamics (supply/price), of just one metal.

These type of markets and their dynamics make BTC look pretty damn small to have any serious impact on their demand. Which is good for ...upward potential.

[afbitcoins]

I think any denial of a Bitcoin ETF would be nearly 100% politically-motivated.  It would mean that they (Governments? World Powers?) simply don't want Bitcoin recognized as a legitimate long term financial instrument.  But that would be fine by me, as I think ETFs over time become corrupt, eventually holding back the underlying assets as opposed to supporting them.

This is what I think too. Who cares about an ETF? Why pay to have an IOU instead of an actual bitcoin in your wallet? If you can buy shares but can't be arsed to find out how to buy bitcoin directly then your loss.

[Karpeles]

number of unconfirmed transactions increasing pretty quickly, guess people will be talking about and block size again very soon

[HI-TEC99]

number of unconfirmed transactions increasing pretty quickly, guess people will be talking about and block size again very soon

Bitcoin price is relatively flat and it's gone back down to 4676 unconfirmed-transactions now. That leaves nothing to talk about.

[Karartma1]

According to Bitcoin Wisdom Bitcoin values still differ significantly across exchanges even if trading seems still.
Bitstamp $1059.03  BTC-e $1036  Bitfinex $1060.8  OKCoin $1045.76 Kraken $1058,10
China volume is so tiny on BTCC and OKCoin

[JayJuanGee]

number of unconfirmed transactions increasing pretty quickly, guess people will be talking about and block size again very soon

Bitcoin price is relatively flat and it's gone back down to 4676 unconfirmed-transactions now. That leaves nothing to talk about.

Yeah..

It is like we have to make shit up to talk about...

O.k... let me give this price discussion a shot.  This kind of flat price still seems kind of exciting with ongoing upwards price pressures.. maybe we have been largely recovering all the way up from the mid $700s, from early January, and the correction from that big correction in early January looks like currently we are floating in the $1045 to $1070 for the last few days.. O.k.. and then about 10 days ago we had the second smaller correction, which seems to cause a considerable decent fuel for continuing our upwards price movements.

So, from here, in the $1045 to $1070 territory, is the break going to be up or down?  and when will the breakout be?  

I am thinking that the correction attempts have already taken place and there is ongoing buying pressure, and I am saying that the odds appear a little bit better for up than down.  60% for up and 40% for down.. and that is a pretty strong sentiment from me... .. o.k. sure I could be wrong... also regarding timing, I am thinking our breakout will continue by no later than mid week, maybe Tuesday and Wednesday at the latest.  

I am also starting to think that we could get a good 50% or more above our previous ATH before we experience any 15% or more correction... maybe close to the $1800 territory.

Edit: As I type and in the past hour or so,  the price has been bouncing between 1057 and 1060, and with a current attempt of dumping down to $1050 and maybe could go lower.  I actually could see a quicky 2-3% correction (or even an attempt to test $1000 that only makes it down to $1020) before proceeding up... but yeah, if we are talking about price movements of 10% or more, then I would suggest that 10% up has a bit better chance than 10% down... that is my sense of ongoing buying pressure when I provide the 60% chance of up and 40% down.

[JayJuanGee]

According to Bitcoin Wisdom Bitcoin values still differ significantly across exchanges even if trading seems still.
Bitstamp $1059.03  BTC-e $1036  Bitfinex $1060.8  OKCoin $1045.76 Kraken $1058,10
China volume is so tiny on BTCC and OKCoin

We are going to have to start looking at the Japanese Bitflyer volume too.   It seems to be a pretty big deal.

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/japanese...-exchange/

 The above article from a few days ago is discussing the fact that three of Japan's largest banks are investing in Bitflyer.

It seems that Bitflyer is a legit and regulated exchange, but the article discusses, the BTC trade volumes on there as 5x to 10x the trade volumes of other major exchanges.

There have been some theories thrown out there about Japan taking over Chinese fake volume, but I don't think that there is actual evidence that the Japanese exchange volume is actually fake... I think that the fact of the matter is that Japan is creating a kind of regulated but friendly atmosphere for bitcoin.. at least currently.

If these BTC trade volumes are correct, then it will definitely put upwards price pressures on BTC including the USD/BTC pairs.