Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[gentlemand]

I think at least a few of the major ones like OKCoin and Huobi.
http://www.newsbtc.com/2017/01/17/bitcoin-price-thrives-despite-china-curbing-margin-trading/

What's the deal with their international iterations? I assume okcoin.com stayed open and .cn was hobbled but haven't been paying much attention.

[bitserve]

I am a bit surprised that noone has mentioned one of the consecuences a split between CORE and BU would have, apart from the AMAZINGLY HUGE volatility lower combined price etc...

1) If Bitcoin is split in two, core side will be at 1MB max block size at that time, and BU with an undetermined but bigger max block size.

2) Both "parties" will start dumping each other strongly. Chaos will reign and volatility could be so huge as to wipe ENTIRE order books up and down. (mainly down, even to 0).

3) All leveraged positions will be wiped on the peaks and valleys.

4) The difficulty will be much higher than the hashrate which, by itself, will create big delays between blocks. It is uncertain how big though.

And this is what I haven't seen anyone mention:

5) There will be a huge spike in transactions with people sending his coins to the exchanges. And I mean an unprecedently HUGE number of transactions. Orders of magnitude higher than anything we have ever seen.

6) Core with its 1MB max block and difficulty over hashrate combined will take ages to move the coins (which is not that bad because there will be less BTC coins arriving at the exchanges to be dumped), BU blocksize...well, I am not sure what it will do in that scenario, but it is possible that it will lead to additional hard forks/blocksize adjustment. Also Orphan blocks will be everywhere.

7) Even if in that scenario it seems that BU would be at an advange with its increased TPS over BTC, that will lead to more BUcoins arriving at the exchanges and being dumped by BTC supporters. The price of BUcoin will be much lower than BTC, at least for some time (days, weeks, months, maybe forever).

I could go on... but the only reasonable conclusion is that all this chaos and confussion will benefit noone (maybe to exchanges in the short period, due to the extreme volatility and huge number of trades) and that all this nonsense must come to and end now.

[Killerpotleaf]

I am a bit surprised that noone has mentioned one of the consecuences a split between CORE and BU would have, apart from the AMAZINGLY HUGE volatility lower combined price etc...

1) If Bitcoin is split in two, core side will be at 1MB max block size at that time, and BU with an undetermined but bigger max block size.

2) Both "parties" will start dumping each other strongly. Chaos will reign and volatility could be so huge as to wipe ENTIRE order books up and down. (mainly down, even to 0).

3) All leveraged positions will be wiped on the peaks and valleys.

4) The difficulty will be much higher than the hashrate which, by itself, will create big delays between blocks. It is uncertain how big though.

And this is what I haven't seen anyone mention:

5) There will be a huge spike in transactions with people sending his coins to the exchanges. And I mean an unprecedently HUGE number of transactions. Orders of magnitude higher than anything we have ever seen.

6) Core with its 1MB max block and difficulty over hashrate combined will take ages to move the coins (which is not that bad because there will be less BTC coins arriving at the exchanges to be dumped), BU blocksize...well, I am not sure what it will do in that scenario, but it is possible that it will lead to additional hard forks/blocksize adjustment. Also Orphan blocks will be everywhere.

7) Even if in that scenario it seems that BU would be at an advange with its increased TPS over BTC, that will lead to more BUcoins arriving at the exchanges and being dumped by BTC supporters. The price of BUcoin will be much lower than BTC, at least for some time (days, weeks, months, maybe forever).

I could go on... but the only reasonable conclusion is that all this chaos and confussion will benefit noone (maybe to exchanges in the short period, due to the extreme volatility and huge number of trades) and that all this nonsense must come to and end now.

it all depends on which chain satoshi dumps on...
that chain will die.
not because he crashed its price
but because he expressed his preference

[arklan]

I am a bit surprised that noone has mentioned one of the consecuences a split between CORE and BU would have, apart from the AMAZINGLY HUGE volatility lower combined price etc...

1) If Bitcoin is split in two, core side will be at 1MB max block size at that time, and BU with an undetermined but bigger max block size.

2) Both "parties" will start dumping each other strongly. Chaos will reign and volatility could be so huge as to wipe ENTIRE order books up and down. (mainly down, even to 0).

3) All leveraged positions will be wiped on the peaks and valleys.

4) The difficulty will be much higher than the hashrate which, by itself, will create big delays between blocks. It is uncertain how big though.

And this is what I haven't seen anyone mention:

5) There will be a huge spike in transactions with people sending his coins to the exchanges. And I mean an unprecedently HUGE number of transactions. Orders of magnitude higher than anything we have ever seen.

6) Core with its 1MB max block and difficulty over hashrate combined will take ages to move the coins (which is not that bad because there will be less BTC coins arriving at the exchanges to be dumped), BU blocksize...well, I am not sure what it will do in that scenario, but it is possible that it will lead to additional hard forks/blocksize adjustment. Also Orphan blocks will be everywhere.

7) Even if in that scenario it seems that BU would be at an advange with its increased TPS over BTC, that will lead to more BUcoins arriving at the exchanges and being dumped by BTC supporters. The price of BUcoin will be much lower than BTC, at least for some time (days, weeks, months, maybe forever).

I could go on... but the only reasonable conclusion is that all this chaos and confussion will benefit noone (maybe to exchanges in the short period, due to the extreme volatility and huge number of trades) and that all this nonsense must come to and end now.

i think plenty of people agree with that sentiment - chaos is bad, contentious hard fork = chaos.

the problem, i think arises with HOW to stop the divide. as in, "ok, we're not gonna fork, but we're also not going to give in! our way or nothing!" which... well, stagnation, which is what we have, solution wise.

it all depends on which chain satoshi dumps on...
that chain will die.
not because he crashed its price
but because he expressed his preference

damn... if that happened ... wow. just, wow.

[BinaryReign]

I am a bit surprised that noone has mentioned one of the consecuences a split between CORE and BU would have, apart from the AMAZINGLY HUGE volatility lower combined price etc...

1) If Bitcoin is split in two, core side will be at 1MB max block size at that time, and BU with an undetermined but bigger max block size.

2) Both "parties" will start dumping each other strongly. Chaos will reign and volatility could be so huge as to wipe ENTIRE order books up and down. (mainly down, even to 0).

3) All leveraged positions will be wiped on the peaks and valleys.

4) The difficulty will be much higher than the hashrate which, by itself, will create big delays between blocks. It is uncertain how big though.

And this is what I haven't seen anyone mention:

5) There will be a huge spike in transactions with people sending his coins to the exchanges. And I mean an unprecedently HUGE number of transactions. Orders of magnitude higher than anything we have ever seen.

6) Core with its 1MB max block and difficulty over hashrate combined will take ages to move the coins (which is not that bad because there will be less BTC coins arriving at the exchanges to be dumped), BU blocksize...well, I am not sure what it will do in that scenario, but it is possible that it will lead to additional hard forks/blocksize adjustment. Also Orphan blocks will be everywhere.

7) Even if in that scenario it seems that BU would be at an advange with its increased TPS over BTC, that will lead to more BUcoins arriving at the exchanges and being dumped by BTC supporters. The price of BUcoin will be much lower than BTC, at least for some time (days, weeks, months, maybe forever).

I could go on... but the only reasonable conclusion is that all this chaos and confussion will benefit noone (maybe to exchanges in the short period, due to the extreme volatility and huge number of trades) and that all this nonsense must come to and end now.

Essentially BU is a Kamikaze attack on Bitcoin..  and the funny part is it's the bigger blocks that rek them in your scenario haha

[Torque]

it all depends on which chain satoshi dumps on...
that chain will die.
not because he crashed its price
but because he expressed his preference

[tk3609]

First, removing 100X margin trading was great in that the FOMO buying bubble leading up to the ETF announcement could only go so high. It would have been ALOT higher if 100X margin trading had been enabled.

Which Chinese exchanges had 100x leverage?

I think at least a few of the major ones like OKCoin and Huobi.
http://www.newsbtc.com/2017/01/17/bitcoin-price-thrives-despite-china-curbing-margin-trading/

Hm, maybe on okcoin.cn because okcoin.com has only 20x. Thanks for the link

[BinaryReign]

it all depends on which chain satoshi dumps on...
that chain will die.
not because he crashed its price
but because he expressed his preference

and if he doesn't dump either? 

[gentlemand]

it all depends on which chain satoshi dumps on...
that chain will die.
not because he crashed its price
but because he expressed his preference

Personally I think Satoshi would create a burn address along the lines of yOufUcKinGBratsruInedEveryThingFu2KokSukkAzzz69 and burn his holdings on both chains.

[york780]

Is crypto done 

[alexeft]

Is crypto done 

No, only the ones that have big blocks are!

[Biodom]

I am a bit surprised that noone has mentioned one of the consecuences a split between CORE and BU would have, apart from the AMAZINGLY HUGE volatility lower combined price etc...

1) If Bitcoin is split in two, core side will be at 1MB max block size at that time, and BU with an undetermined but bigger max block size.

2) Both "parties" will start dumping each other strongly. Chaos will reign and volatility could be so huge as to wipe ENTIRE order books up and down. (mainly down, even to 0).

3) All leveraged positions will be wiped on the peaks and valleys.

4) The difficulty will be much higher than the hashrate which, by itself, will create big delays between blocks. It is uncertain how big though.

And this is what I haven't seen anyone mention:

5) There will be a huge spike in transactions with people sending his coins to the exchanges. And I mean an unprecedently HUGE number of transactions. Orders of magnitude higher than anything we have ever seen.

6) Core with its 1MB max block and difficulty over hashrate combined will take ages to move the coins (which is not that bad because there will be less BTC coins arriving at the exchanges to be dumped), BU blocksize...well, I am not sure what it will do in that scenario, but it is possible that it will lead to additional hard forks/blocksize adjustment. Also Orphan blocks will be everywhere.

7) Even if in that scenario it seems that BU would be at an advange with its increased TPS over BTC, that will lead to more BUcoins arriving at the exchanges and being dumped by BTC supporters. The price of BUcoin will be much lower than BTC, at least for some time (days, weeks, months, maybe forever).

I could go on... but the only reasonable conclusion is that all this chaos and confussion will benefit noone (maybe to exchanges in the short period, due to the extreme volatility and huge number of trades) and that all this nonsense must come to and end now.

OR...you can chill out for a year or 18 mo and wait until the dust settles while mining alts.
In btc mining the biggest question would be WHERE as different pools would probably setup differently.

[springgers]

Looks like we are going for sub 800$, thank you BU FUD for cheap coins

Where are you getting your info from friend?
I said $725 as york780 said he is predicting but now I see him saying 900EUR which is over $1000. So I don't know where he is pulling these numbers from.
And now people are taking about splitting it just like ETH did with the ETClassic crap but with BU?
This is madness.
 

[Killerpotleaf]

This is madness.

[Holliday]

7) Even if in that scenario it seems that BU would be at an advange with its increased TPS over BTC, that will lead to more BUcoins arriving at the exchanges and being dumped by BTC supporters. The price of BUcoin will be much lower than BTC, at least for some time (days, weeks, months, maybe forever).

There is already several 10s of thousands transactions waiting for confirmation at most times. As you said, the chaos of a contentious hard fork would possibly increase transaction rates for a time (there will definitely be a lot of people disassociating their bitcoins coins from BUtcoins, which requires transactions). Also, there is the potential for additional spam attacks on both chains. I expect that should BU fork, they will go with the default size of 16 MB at first, just because who changes default settings? I fully expect those BU blocks to be full for a long time (they may even increase soon because of that, I mean, that is their MO). That means, in 60 days the BU chain will have doubled the size of the existing 8 year old chain, plus some.

Just something to ponder.

[york780]

Honey badger destroyed , so 900 EUR confirmed. It looks like we wont see the price go below 1000$ Congrats USA hodlers, we europeans got rekt once again !

[Ted E. Bare]

At 30m and 1h; could that be a W-shaped bottom forming?

[springgers]

This is madness.

I was just thinking of that saying and am going to rebuke it with.....

This is SPARTAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Ethereum should know this of BITCOINNNNNNN!

Do not mess with the beast!
 or you will get your head chopped off.
Let Dash hear this now!

[york780]

W shaped bottom already occured, still going down so that means a C wave !

[Killerpotleaf]

7) Even if in that scenario it seems that BU would be at an advange with its increased TPS over BTC, that will lead to more BUcoins arriving at the exchanges and being dumped by BTC supporters. The price of BUcoin will be much lower than BTC, at least for some time (days, weeks, months, maybe forever).

There is already several 10s of thousands transactions waiting for confirmation at most times. As you said, the chaos of a contentious hard fork would possibly increase transaction rates for a time (there will definitely be a lot of people disassociating their bitcoins coins from BUtcoins, which requires transactions). Also, there is the potential for additional spam attacks on both chains. I expect that should BU fork, they will go with the default size of 16 MB at first, just because who changes default settings? I fully expect those BU blocks to be full for a long time (they may even increase soon because of that, I mean, that is their MO). That means, in 60 days the BU chain will have doubled the size of the existing 8 year old chain, plus some.

Just something to ponder.

default setting for BU is 1MB