Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitserve]

I have a hard time believing he does not realize that Layer 2 solutions will result in increased fees for miners, not decreased.

i think providing a test version or thorough demonstration of some of this second layer stuff would clear a lot of things up and maybe open enough eyes.

i've read a bunch about lightning networks. i still don't really know what it'll mean for the average user or miner.

maybe what the miners are objecting to is voting for something that very few people actually know anything about. everyone knows what a bigger block does, or rather the theory of them, as long it doesn't break bitcoin. i'm sure there'd be some unintended effects with them too.

For the average user:

- Alternative to use either on-chain transactions (just as now) or side-chain ones.
- When using side-chain/LN/L2 whatever: Lower fees and, most importantly, INSTANT transactions/payments.

FOr the miners:

- On launch.. mostly the same revenue from fees as now.
- Once the market develops, maybe a bit higher fees and, more important, as Bitcoin grows the price should do so = higher revenue from mined coins.

Also, nothing stops mining pools/miners to run L2 hubs as a side business.

[york780]

i hope it all pans out that way.

but perhaps segwit and litecoin is now directly influenced by bitcoin players who see it as a proxy. their activation is flat too.

SegWit hasnt been activated on litecoin yet right?

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

I am speculating on miners finally coming back to their senses and start signaling for segwit activation. The ball is now on Jihan BU's court.

i believe that's unlikely myself. until recently most miners didn't signal for anything other than the status quo.

what do you think would convince him to do so?

Several factors:

- He has made an strategically wrong move when he decided to start signaling BU making him personally (and ANTMINER) in the focus of this mess. Now all the darts are going to him instead of CORE. He is considered responsible of this situation and everyone is expecting him to solve the mess he has created. And BU is no solution but a bigger mess (as recent bugs and horrible public opinion is demonstrating).

If a HF occurs because of BU, he will be the scapegoat. SO he better avoid it now.

- Unless he is much more insane and obtuse than I would think he is, he should realise he has much more to gain making himself the SOLUTION of this deadlock instead of the problem. He could even be the "hero" if he know how to "sell" it.

- He can hold for some time his mined coins, then start signaling for segwit, then sell after the big spike upwards (=profit).

- The status quo was, until recently, the logical position as miners. For them it is better 1MB blocksize than higher blocksize. When they say otherwise they are just lying. But 1MB is not sustainable anymore, not for much longer.

- BU is not gonna happen. Not after the recent events.

- CORE is not going to increase the blocksize just now. Not BEFORE Segwit.

- There is a high probability that Litecoin will activate Segwit soon. Increasing the chances that Bitcoin follows next.

So... Only logical outcome is Segwit, and if that's gonna happen, it's better to be a promoter than keep fighting against it.

You make some well reasoned points. However Litecoin is lagging Bitcoin in SegWit adoption according to https://twitter.com/Softforks

[bitserve]

I am speculating on miners finally coming back to their senses and start signaling for segwit activation. The ball is now on Jihan BU's court.

i believe that's unlikely myself. until recently most miners didn't signal for anything other than the status quo.

what do you think would convince him to do so?

Several factors:

- He has made an strategically wrong move when he decided to start signaling BU making him personally (and ANTMINER) in the focus of this mess. Now all the darts are going to him instead of CORE. He is considered responsible of this situation and everyone is expecting him to solve the mess he has created. And BU is no solution but a bigger mess (as recent bugs and horrible public opinion is demonstrating).

If a HF occurs because of BU, he will be the scapegoat. SO he better avoid it now.

- Unless he is much more insane and obtuse than I would think he is, he should realise he has much more to gain making himself the SOLUTION of this deadlock instead of the problem. He could even be the "hero" if he know how to "sell" it.

- He can hold for some time his mined coins, then start signaling for segwit, then sell after the big spike upwards (=profit).

- The status quo was, until recently, the logical position as miners. For them it is better 1MB blocksize than higher blocksize. When they say otherwise they are just lying. But 1MB is not sustainable anymore, not for much longer.

- BU is not gonna happen. Not after the recent events.

- CORE is not going to increase the blocksize just now. Not BEFORE Segwit.

- There is a high probability that Litecoin will activate Segwit soon. Increasing the chances that Bitcoin follows next.

So... Only logical outcome is Segwit, and if that's gonna happen, it's better to be a promoter than keep fighting against it.

You make some well reasoned points. However Litecoin is lagging Bitcoin in SegWit adoption according to https://twitter.com/Softforks

But you must take into account that it was only a month ago that it was possible to signal for Segwit (http://www.coindesk.com/litecoin-moves-to-adopt-bitcoins-segwit-scaling-upgrade/)

And Litecoin mining pools are organised differently as in Bitcoin. Charlie Lee explains it:

 
Charlie Lee‏Verified account @SatoshiLite Mar 21

@jmoarg Most of the Chinese pools act as one unit. So they either all for it or all against it. So it can happen quickly. I'm working on it.

It is not that Litecoin *needs* Segwit for its increased TPS, but it fixes transaction malleability among other fixes plus it could mean some pump to its price... so why not? Litecoin has nothing to lose and something to gain.

Also, the threshold for Segwit activation in Litecoin is 75% instead of 95% as in Bitcoin.

[Cassius]

95% hashrate activation seems crazy. I can't understand why they ever thought that was going to happen.

[infofront]

95% hashrate activation seems crazy. I can't understand why they ever thought that was going to happen.

Agreed. You can't even get 95% of people to agree that the sky is blue.
I think 67% is a good threshold.

[arklan]

95% hashrate activation seems crazy. I can't understand why they ever thought that was going to happen.

Agreed. You can't even get 95% of people to agree that the sky is blue.
I think 67% is a good threshold.

WELL EXCUSE ME FOR BEING COLORBLIND, YOU ABLEIST BASTARD!

if you can't tell, that's meant jokingly. though i am colorblind. but i still see the sky as blue. purple though? doesn't exist. red? sure. pink? yea. blue? totally. pale blue, like the sky? yea! any kind of blending... doesn't exist. one or the other. and neon green and yellow? same thing.

[David48l]

95% hashrate activation seems crazy. I can't understand why they ever thought that was going to happen.

They know it  .  and remember....

to artificially limit the scaling up in favor of the private blockchain of companies and banks. This is your job.

Then alternatives appear .... private blockchains

[European Central Bank]

95% hashrate activation seems crazy. I can't understand why they ever thought that was going to happen.

wasn't 95% the threshold for previous soft forks like the child pays for parent thing? i might be totally wrong.

i guess they assumed it wouldn't be controversial...

[york780]

LOL. That ethereum pump&dump. I switched all my btc for ethereum just before the pump. And i just dumped everything for btc again. Feels good to be a trader. A nice 0,5 btc profit for today. Not bad. Please dont crash the bitcoin price while i am a sleep. Thanks 

[Biodom]

LOL. That ethereum pump&dump. I switched all my btc for ethereum just before the pump. And i just dumped everything for btc again. Feels good to be a trader. A nice 0,5 btc profit for today. Not bad. Please dont crash the bitcoin price while i am a sleep. Thanks 

not really...most trades are bad, so if you trade a lot, you are bound to lose money.
in a bull market you might survive and even have some gains, but bear will finish the job, most likely.
how wall street calls daytraders gains: a loan.

[york780]

I am trading for over a year now, and i cant complain about the profits that i made. But yes you are right, sometimes i am wrong. Biggest mistake is that i sold all my eth at 11 dollar lol. This is just a little revenge. But to many wrongs and you are out for ever.

[JimboToronto]

There is no fork. Is this the bottom?

You are the worst. Just a baghodler who want other people getting burned so that you can cash out when they are getting rekt. Bitcoin needs a fork because they have to fix some serious scaling isues.

??

I do not need anyone to do anything. I've invested in bitcoin and I'm very happy that I did. Go ahead and sell your coins, I couldn't care less. Actually I hope that you leave bitcoin because you're a troll.

troll troll troll

You sound like a NLC shill account.

Don't worry Ted. This nonsense will seem so silly in a few years.

I agree that common sense will probably prevail, especially when there's so much at stake, but even if a hard fork does occur, Bitcoin will be fine.

Don't sweat the trolls.

[Biodom]

I am trading for over a year now, and i cant complain about the profits that i made. But yes you are right, sometimes i am wrong. Biggest mistake is that i sold all my eth at 11 dollar lol. This is just a little revenge. But to many wrongs and you are out for ever.

one year is nothing...tell me about it in five-seven.
The best idea (from experience) is to take profits into something more tangible and/or memorable: a car, a vacation, condo/house down-payment, payment toward a school loan, etc.

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

And that's because I think it is unlikely the scaling problem won't be addressed. The situation is already heated enough as to assume it will be addressed before end of year. If it wasn't then we would have a real problem.

or you could look at it the other way and perceive that a fork back down is an endorsement for core to carry on as they are. they can point to their solution and say the only thing holding it back is miners. those miners will also know that forcing through a fork ain't gonna go down well.

more deadlock. i really hope not though.

I am speculating on miners finally coming back to their senses and start signaling for segwit activation. The ball is now on Jihan BU's court.

That wont happen unless core capitulate on scale. Core wont capitulate ( they are in slash and burn mode now) Their future depends on fee market and LN ( which is still miles off) They might as well fight on or burn bitcoin.

I suspect they may fail at both.

[Ted E. Bare]

Last day to vote:
SegWit, Unlimited, both, neither, etc

[JayJuanGee]

And that's because I think it is unlikely the scaling problem won't be addressed. The situation is already heated enough as to assume it will be addressed before end of year. If it wasn't then we would have a real problem.

or you could look at it the other way and perceive that a fork back down is an endorsement for core to carry on as they are. they can point to their solution and say the only thing holding it back is miners. those miners will also know that forcing through a fork ain't gonna go down well.

more deadlock. i really hope not though.

I am speculating on miners finally coming back to their senses and start signaling for segwit activation. The ball is now on Jihan BU's court.

That wont happen unless core capitulate on scale. Core wont capitulate ( they are in slash and burn mode now) Their future depends on fee market and LN ( which is still miles off) They might as well fight on or burn bitcoin.

I suspect they may fail at both.

There is no reason for Core to capitulate on anything.

Why would you want to compromise and incorporate some kind of code that absolutely unnecessary?

It's not about being biased or financially dependent on lightning network  - that's all bullshit.  The main point is that there is no facts or logic to back up making an increase in the blocksize limit at this time.

[Killerpotleaf]

i'll be buying tomorrow.

but i won't enjoy it.

[Ted E. Bare]

Did you see that whale buying at Bitfinex just now?

[Arcteryx]

i'll be buying tomorrow.

but i won't enjoy it.

It's down to 1017 now so maybe the good time to buy a little now.
From the whales buying up now is going to cause it to surge tomorrow and by time you wake up it will be just too late for buying near $1000 again until something big happens.
And we all know what that is.