Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[mestar]

You are right. I expressed my thought sloppily.
"Half of the BTC value at the time of the split has been traded..."
Ultimately implying that the mere existence of a new chain does not mean there is actual value stored in it.

Lets say that 10 million BCH have been traded in the next week, and price ends up at $5.   At this point the selling pressure will stop, and it could be a good moment to buy.  After all, all those 10 million did find somebody interested in buying them.

As for actual value,  there is no other value other than somebody willing to buy them from you, and this is true for both BTC and BCH.

[d_eddie]

You are right. I expressed my thought sloppily.
"Half of the BTC value at the time of the split has been traded..."
Ultimately implying that the mere existence of a new chain does not mean there is actual value stored in it.

Lets say that 10 million BCH have been traded in the next week, and price ends up at $5.   At this point the selling pressure will stop, and it could be a good moment to buy.  After all, all those 10 million did find somebody interested in buying them.

As for actual value,  there is no other value other than somebody willing to buy them from you, and this is true for both BTC and BCH.

Exactly. Well said. By a 50/50 split, I meant the BCH price = BTC price (fiat-wise), or BTC:BCH=1:1.

[julian071]

HitBit accepted my shitcoins after only 1 confirmation ! And withdrawal was limitless, got my Btcs just a minute after withdrawal. Best exchange experience ever.

What price did you sell? I donno if I should wait for the next pump.... It is half than this morning.

0.15/BTC. This coin is DoA, never expected more than 5% and now I got 15% ! On the other exchanges it's just trader pumping and dumping air to each other. Wait till the flood gates are open and see the price crash. The blockchain is practically frozen. Nevertheless, crazy last 48h hours. I need drinks and/or sleep.

Could not have said it better. Also sold @ 0.15.

Mining Bitcoin Crash has resumed btw, so hopefully I can get my profits out.

[becoin]

As for actual value,  there is no other value other than somebody willing to buy them from you, and this is true for both BTC and BCH.

There is big difference! Everybody is willing to buy BTC. Only Ver and Wu are willing to buy BCH. Hope that clears your confusion.

[mestar]

That's a good explanation. But what happens if 51% of hashpower want bigger blocks but Core Developers refuse?

Then 51% can go to war and hope to get lucky to create the longest chain, and this is one of the basic Bitcoin facts, longest chain wins.

This is almost exactly what is going on right now, but with 10% of hashrate instead of 51%.

[FractalUniverse]

omg almost 20 new pages since i left. Did this thread become BTH observer thread?

[d_eddie]

As for actual value,  there is no other value other than somebody willing to buy them from you, and this is true for both BTC and BCH.

There is big difference! Everybody is willing to buy BTC. Only Ver and Wu are willing to buy BCH. Hope that clears your confusion.

It is also not a 0/1 matter of "will buy/won't buy". Price does matter.

I am not a BCH believer, but I would buy say, 1000 BCH for 0.01 BTC, just for the heck of it and the remote possibility of profiting off some future pump that might or might not happen. I wouldn't, on the other hand, buy BCH at the fake prices suggested by the exchanges that actually (say they) deal with BCH. I could sell some though, if it was actually possible (or easy).

[Ibian]

omg almost 20 new pages since i left. Did this thread become BTH observer thread?

Yes. Long may it prosper.

[d5000]

I see we're still going sideways... currently $2725USD (Bitcoinaverage). Not bad, considering the fact that we all just got gifted an equal number of altcoin (BCH) tokens.

Exactly my feelings, I'm pleasantly surprised by the price evolution. Although it dips sometimes below $2700, I had expected a large dump coming from Big Blockers that simply want to harm the original Bitcoin. Now it seems the largest dump was before the split - in anticipation of a move that didn't happen.

Maybe the BCH adherents are still not sure if their coin will survive and therefore dump'd only a little fraction of their BTC, to scare us. But nobody panicked

I don't think the drama is done quite yet. Let's at least wait until segwit is fully activated.

I think the activation will be flawless. The "extreme" group of Big Blockers has now their altcoin to play with, so they wouldn't try to influence Jihan and other miners that sympathize with the big block idea. And I think most miners are expecting high prices or even a new ATH if Segwit is activated, so they won't be interested in turbulences that could harm this scenario they would massively benefit from.

[mestar]

That's a good explanation. But what happens if 51% of hashpower want bigger blocks but Core Developers refuse?

Miners can then just recompile with one constant changed.  In practice, they would have a hard time organizing, and finding someone trustful enough to create a new version and compile it for them,  so, "current state" always has a huge advantage.

But now that this has been done, it would be really interesting to see what would happen if majority of miners switched, even if for no other reason but because they are all Chinese.

[infofront]

Can we get a new poll for the thread? 

What kind of poll do you want?
I'm tempted to make a poll regarding BCC price, but this isn't supposed to be an altcoin thread.

[Dafar]

ETH splits = combined value lower than value before split

BTC splits = combined value higher than value before split


ETH shills are so mad right now LOL



(I hate ethereum shills)

[williamuk]

I had expected a large dump coming from Big Blockers that simply want to harm the original Bitcoin. Now it seems the largest dump was before the split - in anticipation of a move that didn't happen.
Maybe the BCH adherents are still not sure if their coin will survive and therefore dump'd only a little fraction of their BTC, to scare us.

You are speculating that people with money behave like kids. They don't.

[mestar]

Exchanges, on the other hand...

Lets say there is a miner underground movement to recompile the client with 8MB block limit.  They can do it, and they don't even have to tell anyone.   However, the first ones to do it are risking it, because their big blocks will probably not end up in the longest chain. 

However, if more than 50% do it, we get a hard fork, and small block miners are forced to switch.

And, believe me, exchanges would be first ones to switch, as they have most to lose.

[d_eddie]

ETH splits = combined value lower than value before split

BTC splits = combined value higher than value before split

Combined value higher? Let's wait until transfers work almost normally. Let's plug the BTC price before the split into the equation. Let's recalculate. Higher still?

I'm not defending ETH shills, by the way. Only predicting red BCH candles given a sufficiently long time frame.

[julian071]

Can we get a new poll for the thread? 

What kind of poll do you want?
I'm tempted to make a poll regarding BCC price, but this isn't supposed to be an altcoin thread.

I agree, all that is interesting about BCC is what it means for the price of BTC.

If you do want to make a poll related to BCC, maybe you could ask something pertaining to that, so e.g. whether people think this fork will a) show that the governance model of BTC is working as it should or b) shows the inherent weakness of the governance model of BTC etc. Just thinking out loud here.

Thanks again infofront for maintaining this thread, it's running very well! We can discuss developments that both in the short term and the long term influence the market value of BTC. Walls may not be the most important things in that respect anymore.

[d_eddie]

Exchanges, on the other hand...

Lets say there is a miner underground movement to recompile the client with 8MB block limit.  They can do it, and they don't even have to tell anyone.   However, the first ones to do it are risking it, because their big blocks will probably not end up in the longest chain. 

However, if more than 50% do it, we get a hard fork, and small block miners are forced to switch.

And, believe me, exchanges would be first ones to switch, as they have most to lose.

Yes: if all miners switch, there's only one way things can go. However, if a minority stubbornly sticks to the old chain, we have 2 chains. The exchanges will probably list both coins and let the market do the rest. Which the market is doing right now. Let's give it some time.

[traincarswreck]

Can we get a new poll for the thread? 

What kind of poll do you want?
I'm tempted to make a poll regarding BCC price, but this isn't supposed to be an altcoin thread.

I agree, all that is interesting about BCC is what it means for the price of BTC.

If you do want to make a poll related to BCC, maybe you could ask something pertaining to that, so e.g. whether people think this fork will a) show that the governance model of BTC is working as it should or b) shows the inherent weakness of the governance model of BTC etc. Just thinking out loud here.

Thanks again infofront for maintaining this thread, it's running very well! We can discuss developments that both in the short term and the long term influence the market value of BTC. Walls may not be the most important things in that respect anymore.

there is no better poll than the long run of the aggregated exchange prices. But Bach prices are not matured enough yet.

[mestar]

It currently stands at $460 BCH  / 2700 BTC at Kraken, and $720 BCH  /2700 BTC at Bitterx.   Such a high price is definitely unexpected.

[traincarswreck]

Exchanges, on the other hand...

Lets say there is a miner underground movement to recompile the client with 8MB block limit.  They can do it, and they don't even have to tell anyone.   However, the first ones to do it are risking it, because their big blocks will probably not end up in the longest chain.  

However, if more than 50% do it, we get a hard fork, and small block miners are forced to switch.

And, believe me, exchanges would be first ones to switch, as they have most to lose.

Yes: if all miners switch, there's only one way things can go. However, if a minority stubbornly sticks to the old chain, we have 2 chains. The exchanges will probably list both coins and let the market do the rest. Which the market is doing right now. Let's give it some time.

its fucked how people have been screaming at small blockers to read the white paper when literally they themselves stoped at the title