Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[sarc]

  I don't want ANYONE to lose.  This whole convo is simply a glimpse of the sentiment of some not buying or waiting for lower prices.

Unfortunately I think that is the least likely outcome  
But yes, the convo is a bit of the other side of why some of us are not buying now. A lot of people have been speculating as to why some may or may not buy, and that we would all chase after the train if we rally from here. Been hearing a lot of that the last few days.

1. because big players created feeling of fear and pain by pumping and dumping.
2. they will collect cheap coins now. No one was willing to sell before :-)

yes, but also irritated and disillusioned by the market for being so very easily led.

[phoenix1]

 I don't want ANYONE to lose.  This whole convo is simply a glimpse of the sentiment of some not buying or waiting for lower prices.

Unfortunately I think that is the least likely outcome  
But yes, the convo is a bit of the other side of why some of us are not buying now. A lot of people have been speculating as to why some may or may not buy, and that we would all chase after the train if we rally from here. Been hearing a lot of that the last few days.

1. because big players created feeling of fear and pain by pumping and dumping.
2. they will collect cheap coins now. No one was willing to sell before :-)

yes, but also irritated and disillusioned by the market for being so very easily led.

I am disillusioned by just how much manipulation is going on ... it has not cost me anything, but it gives me less faith in Bitcoin and raises the risk premium

Seems to me that hypothetically if fiat was replaced with Bitcoin we would just we changing one set of masters for another. And I am not yet convinced that these new ones would be any better.

[oda.krell]

CASE STUDY - I bought in at 235. Pure greed. Before I even understood what bicoin truely was.

stop loss sold on the way down, luckily played the bounce from about $77 - $159... lost money in Bitcoin-24 fiasco, lost some profit in continued crashes after the $165 high.

BUT I'm not about to leave the market now that I know what bitcoin is... it's not about leaving the market and cutting losses... as far as I'm concerned once you are in you are in, once you understand bitcoin you have no real reason to totally leave the market. It's too much of a mental investment as well as financial.

After a month of chart watching, following news and learning more and more about the past and potential future of bitcoin, I decided that trading is not for me, it's a small part of the game. I just took 1/3 of my (now 25% up) money out of Gox via coins to Bitstamp and hopefully fiat in my account next couple weeks. The rest is all in, for the mid/long term. If Bitcoin-24 resolves it's banking issues and the market continues to price bitcoin lower, I'll use that money to buy more coins lower (as many people definitely want to do).

To me, unless you really think it's worth day trading bitcoin in the long term (which is probably the case for many in this subforum I know), that's the sort of thing anyone who's recently got involved with Bitcoin should be doing, making an investment and holding onto it, allowing the next 6 months to take it's course now that the world is paying attention and the infrastructure truely starts to develop.

Personally I'm emotionally and physically exhausted from my bitcoin discovery but there is no way I'm leaving the market, and this price seems fair... even if it drops to $50 it will most likely go up again anyway (touch wood). Even if it's not legitimised and the regulatory grey area resolved in the next 6 months, I'm sure there will be some use for it in the long run. But given the strength of the community and it's word wide nature, bitcoin will not fade away and I think many people should recognise that after having invested the time to understand what they are investing money in.


excuse the long fairly off topic post

engaging story. thanks

And in a way, it sounds like a slightly unluckier version of my own story. Difference no.1 is that my fiat took a few days longer to arrive, so I saw the 26x bubble pop before I could buy in (and to be honest, I probably would have bought in :/). Difference no.2 is that I had narrowed down the possible exchanges to bitcoin-24, bitcentral and bitstamp. I was lucky to pick the third. (although I am aware that no exchange is really secure)

[michaelGedi]

 I don't want ANYONE to lose.  This whole convo is simply a glimpse of the sentiment of some not buying or waiting for lower prices.

Unfortunately I think that is the least likely outcome  
But yes, the convo is a bit of the other side of why some of us are not buying now. A lot of people have been speculating as to why some may or may not buy, and that we would all chase after the train if we rally from here. Been hearing a lot of that the last few days.

1. because big players created feeling of fear and pain by pumping and dumping.
2. they will collect cheap coins now. No one was willing to sell before :-)

yes, but also irritated and disillusioned by the market for being so very easily led.

I am disillusioned by just how much manipulation is going on ... it has not cost me anything, but it gives me less faith in Bitcoin and raises the risk premium

what do you expect from an unregulated market populated with a fairly large number of intelligent members? EDIT - I mean: populated by a decent demographic of early adopters with large number of coins, who, if they decided they wanted to manipulate the market probably have the brains and the skills to do so.

how much manipulation do you think goes on in regulated markets?

[phoenix1]

I am disillusioned by just how much manipulation is going on ... it has not cost me anything, but it gives me less faith in Bitcoin and raises the risk premium

what do you expect from an unregulated market populated with a fairly large number of intelligent members? EDIT - I mean: populated by a decent demographic of early adopters with large number of coins, who, if they decided they wanted to manipulate the market probably have the brains and the skills to do so.

how much manipulation do you think goes on in regulated markets?

Fully aware of the manipulation in 'regulated' markets ... took a while to learn enough to understand that the dynamics of Bitcoin were at least as bad

[ChartBuddy]

[fitty]

I've seen all the $500, $1000 and even $300k coin statements.  I truly hope that happens for people but if that's the case, who are these people paying $500-$300k per coin?  Because I know who it's not going to be.   

As far as I understood this, your problem is the psychological barrier of "one unit for over 100 dollar", right? But does it really matter? I don't care if I get 1 BTC for 100 $ or only 1 for 1000 $, all that matters for me is the relative value and it's change: 20 % value gain is 20 % value gain, even if I pay 300k $ for "one unit", isn't it?

But I feel with you. I support that mBTC "movement".

Sweet Jesus it brings a tear to my eye to see weak bears leave.

That's like saying, “I used to invest $5,000 in BTC when it got me 65 coins, but now it only buys me 40 coins, that sucks!”. If you’re investing in BTC, that’s a good thing. It means they’re worth more. Lets say you take $10,000 to invest on NASDAQ. Hmm, Google, $880? Fuck that. Groupon, $6? Much better.  But wait, you could buy penny stocks and own 50,000 shares! Holy shit ballz!

BTC has been over $100 most of the last 2 months. People didn’t have a problem when we had plenty of volatility. People don’t like it now, because woops, the volatility didn’t bail you out. So you’re faced with buying back at a higher price point and having fewer coins. Then you’d have to deal with the realization you shouldn’t have sold. Instead of facing that fact, you’d rather go trade another Cryptocoin. I could use $5000 to buy 44 BTC, or I could buy 1,500 Litecoins! FUCK YAH IMMA MAKE IT RAIN LITECOINS!

If that 44 vs 1,500 makes it look like a better deal, heading to litecoins is probably a good idea. However I’d suggest instead of $5,000, drop your investment pool down to like $5. Emotionally that’s a much easier number to deal with when trading.

This is how I imagine weak bears moving to other markets to trade because triple digit BTC rocks their world.

[Odalv]

I am disillusioned by just how much manipulation is going on ... it has not cost me anything, but it gives me less faith in Bitcoin and raises the risk premium

what do you expect from an unregulated market populated with a fairly large number of intelligent members? EDIT - I mean: populated by a decent demographic of early adopters with large number of coins, who, if they decided they wanted to manipulate the market probably have the brains and the skills to do so.

how much manipulation do you think goes on in regulated markets?

Fully aware of the manipulation in regulated markets ... took a while to learn enough to understand that the dynamics of Bitcoin were at least as bad

lol, are you different ?  Do you want to buy high and sell low ?
1. if you believe in Bitcoin buy and hold.
2. if you want more btc/usd then trade but some win and other must lose.  
3. wait until price rise high enough and will be stable and hard to manipulate it ( maybe 5-10 years )

[sarc]

I am disillusioned by just how much manipulation is going on ... it has not cost me anything, but it gives me less faith in Bitcoin and raises the risk premium

what do you expect from an unregulated market populated with a fairly large number of intelligent members? EDIT - I mean: populated by a decent demographic of early adopters with large number of coins, who, if they decided they wanted to manipulate the market probably have the brains and the skills to do so.

how much manipulation do you think goes on in regulated markets?

Fully aware of the manipulation in regulated markets ... took a while to learn enough to understand that the dynamics of Bitcoin were at least as bad

lol, are you different ?  Do you want to buy high and sell low ?
1. if you believe in Bitcoin buy and hold.
2. if you want more btc/usd then trade but some win and other must lose.  
3. wait until price rise high enough and will be stable and hard to manipulate it ( maybe 5-10 years )

4. Wait for a price drop to justify buying back in, or else leave it behind. Oh, wait a minute...

[phoenix1]

I am disillusioned by just how much manipulation is going on ... it has not cost me anything, but it gives me less faith in Bitcoin and raises the risk premium

what do you expect from an unregulated market populated with a fairly large number of intelligent members? EDIT - I mean: populated by a decent demographic of early adopters with large number of coins, who, if they decided they wanted to manipulate the market probably have the brains and the skills to do so.

how much manipulation do you think goes on in regulated markets?

Fully aware of the manipulation in regulated markets ... took a while to learn enough to understand that the dynamics of Bitcoin were at least as bad

lol, are you different ?  Do you want to buy high and sell low ?
1. if you believe in Bitcoin buy and hold.
2. if you want more btc/usd then trade but some win and other must lose.  
3. wait until price rise high enough and will be stable and hard to manipulate it ( maybe 5-10 years )

Like I said, it gives me less faith in Bitcoin ... that's all
Also not convinced that a higher price means stability and less manipulation. As I see it, it assumes that the biggest players significantly reduce the number of Bitcoins they hold. Why do that if you can keep manipulating the market with them ? Why not just cash out a small amount as the price rises and keep playing the same game ?

[phoenix1]

4. Wait for a price drop to justify buying in, or else leave it behind.

^^ This
As I said in my original post re my sentiments right now

[Missionary]

Looking forward to the day when people will refuse to buy [insert random 4-digit dollar value] coins. "It's just not right, it can't be worth more than [insert random 3-digit dollar value]!".

[Richy_T]

The idea that people are "slowly" fleeing the market and "slowly" panic selling and that it's just an extended collapse is turning into a bad punchline. The only people left saying that are people trying to get back in at a discount.

I agree with about the oxymoronic use of 'slow' panic   ... that don't make much sense ...
However, I dont agree that anyone who wants to buy in at a lower level than this is trying to get in at a discount. There are a lot of assumptions in that. I know that is not exactly what you said, but similar things have been said by many people, so I am just pointing it out that it ain't necessarily so. I am sure there are people running round trying to scare people so they can buy cheaper something they believe to be worth more (I see them!). Some others amongst us just don't want to buy at these prices and see too much risk here and now.

In a bubble collapse, there are often bag holders who are wary to sell at a big loss so hang on for a while and those who attempt to double-down. I got involved in one once (on the advice of someone else. I should have known better) and watched as it took about four months for my shares to drop from 40c to 1c or so after the bust.

I don't think that's what's happening with Bitcoin at all but it's simply not necessarily the case that the deflation after a bubble burst is all that quick.

[Rampion]

The idea that people are "slowly" fleeing the market and "slowly" panic selling and that it's just an extended collapse is turning into a bad punchline. The only people left saying that are people trying to get back in at a discount.

I agree with about the oxymoronic use of 'slow' panic   ... that don't make much sense ...
However, I dont agree that anyone who wants to buy in at a lower level than this is trying to get in at a discount. There are a lot of assumptions in that. I know that is not exactly what you said, but similar things have been said by many people, so I am just pointing it out that it ain't necessarily so. I am sure there are people running round trying to scare people so they can buy cheaper something they believe to be worth more (I see them!). Some others amongst us just don't want to buy at these prices and see too much risk here and now.

Bitcoin has always being risky, hence the high rewards for the bold ones. Now is less risky than ever -  it was much riskier after the 2011 bubble,  when it looked like it was never going to recover.

The point is to get the cheapest coins possible in a certain time frame. But in absolute terms,  $115 coins is super cheap. If you really believe that these are expensive coins, it can only be because you think that Bitcoin will never develop further potential -  this was its peak in use.  

ATM, that looks as a foolish statement - if you really understand Bitcoin, you will see that you really cannot afford to lose the opportunity to invest in it.

[Odalv]

4. Wait for a price drop to justify buying in, or else leave it behind.

^^ This
As I said in my original post re my sentiments right now

That is fine. I'm doing same with my small part of speculative bitcoins. You can keep your $ in bank account or in order book :-)

[Jaques]

another false breakout eminent?

[phoenix1]

In a bubble collapse, there are often bag holders who are wary to sell at a big loss so hang on for a while and those who attempt to double-down. I got involved in one once (on the advice of someone else. I should have known better) and watched as it took about four months for my shares to drop from 40c to 1c or so after the bust.

I don't think that's what's happening with Bitcoin at all but it's simply not necessarily the case that the deflation after a bubble burst is all that quick.

I think you are pointing out the difference between 'panic' and 'hold and hope' ... quick vs slow deflation being the differing outcomes. No idea how this applies to Bitcoin right now, but I agree with the point you are making

The point is to get the cheapest coins possible in a certain time frame. But in absolute terms,  $115 coins is super cheap. If you really believe that these are expensive coins, it can only be because you think that Bitcoin will never develop further potential -  this was its peak in use.  

ATM, that looks as a foolish statement - if you really understand Bitcoin, you will see that you really cannot afford to lose the opportunity to invest in it.

Like I said, if I miss the train, I'm cool with that ... extrapolate it as you wish and read into it what you will. Those are your thoughts, beliefs  and statements, not mine.
Right now I wait ...

[ChartBuddy]

[Richy_T]

In a bubble collapse, there are often bag holders who are wary to sell at a big loss so hang on for a while and those who attempt to double-down. I got involved in one once (on the advice of someone else. I should have known better) and watched as it took about four months for my shares to drop from 40c to 1c or so after the bust.

I don't think that's what's happening with Bitcoin at all but it's simply not necessarily the case that the deflation after a bubble burst is all that quick.

I think you are pointing out the difference between 'panic' and 'hold and hope' ... quick vs slow deflation being the differing outcomes. No idea how this applies to Bitcoin right now, but I agree with the point you are making

I don't think it really does. This was a no-hope company with not really much going for it. I knew the mechanics of a pump & dump but thought my friend knew what he was talking about. I held because I was mentally incapable of locking-in my losses. Now it's not even worth my time to sell what I have. Bitcoin is pretty solid under the hood (in my opinion) and I'm holding less for the chance to "cash out" in the future but more because I believe it will be expensive to "cash in" once the full potential starts unfolding.

[molecular]

The idea that people are "slowly" fleeing the market and "slowly" panic selling and that it's just an extended collapse is turning into a bad punchline. The only people left saying that are people trying to get back in at a discount.

I agree with about the oxymoronic use of 'slow' panic   ... that don't make much sense ...
However, I dont agree that anyone who wants to buy in at a lower level than this is trying to get in at a discount. There are a lot of assumptions in that. I know that is not exactly what you said, but similar things have been said by many people, so I am just pointing it out that it ain't necessarily so. I am sure there are people running round trying to scare people so they can buy cheaper something they believe to be worth more (I see them!). Some others amongst us just don't want to buy at these prices and see too much risk here and now.

In a bubble collapse, there are often bag holders who are wary to sell at a big loss so hang on for a while and those who attempt to double-down. I got involved in one once (on the advice of someone else. I should have known better) and watched as it took about four months for my shares to drop from 40c to 1c or so after the bust.

I don't think that's what's happening with Bitcoin at all but it's simply not necessarily the case that the deflation after a bubble burst is all that quick.

In the bubble burst from $32 to $2.50 I did not sell a single coin. Instead I've been buying increasingly more thinking: "you idiots, it's just bad press, the fundamentals are sound" and so on. A bit green behind the ears I was back then.

Of course in hindsight it would've been better to sell all and buy back in at $2.50.

On the other hand I recently talked to a guy I got to know in early 2011. He had been mining and sold everything in late 2011 only to discover bitcoin had gone to 3 digits. He now says: I won't buy, it's too expensive.

Just holding on to your coins is not the best thing to do, but not the worst thing either.