Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[MickeyT2008]

Often when trading is slow this thread descends into a petty flame war, it's very boring.

Hmm, I'm new here, but IMHO when trading is fast the price is moving fast and most of what happens is a mother load of redundant posts about the price change. I've been reading for a month before my registration date btw.

I'm not saying that boring flame wars don't happen when trading is slow. What I am saying is that when trading is slow I find the ratio of interesting information to noise in this speculation thread is much easier consume than when trading is fast.

So I dispute your proposition that slow trading results in a boring thread. Unless I have misunderstood that the point is excitement rather than speculation.

I'm not saying that the thread itself is boring, just that pointless flame wars can be.  (I admit that sometimes they are amusing).  I'm here to try to gain some insight into trading better as opposed to an insight into how some people don't like other people, that I couldn't care less about.  Different people have different views, which is to be expected but let's keep it (reasonably) polite, hey?

What I do like is reading other people's analysis of the BTC situation, that's what I'm here for.  I try to take in what everyone is saying and then draw my own conclusions about it, rather than following what's written in a sheeplike way.  If someone says that the price is crashing and I sell out, but it goes up then that's not their fault as they were just giving their opinion - it's my fault as it would be my own decision to have sold at that point.  There always seems to be people saying opposite things, with the unpredictability of BTC that's to be expected but all views and charts are welcome information so far as I'm concerned.

[bito]

Often when trading is slow this thread descends into a petty flame war, it's very boring.

Hmm, I'm new here, but IMHO when trading is fast the price is moving fast and most of what happens is a mother load of redundant posts about the price change. I've been reading for a month before my registration date btw.

I'm not saying that boring flame wars don't happen when trading is slow. What I am saying is that when trading is slow I find the ratio of interesting information to noise in this speculation thread is much easier consume than when trading is fast.

So I dispute your proposition that slow trading results in a boring thread. Unless I have misunderstood that the point is excitement rather than speculation.

I'm not saying that the thread itself is boring, just that pointless flame wars can be.  I'm here to try to gain some insight into trading better as opposed to an insight into how some people don't like other people, that I couldn't care less about.  Different people have different views, which is to be expected but let's keep it (reasonably) polite, hey?

Hey, I am being polite! Maybe I forgot a smilie somewhere???

But I suppose here begins a pointless point - I stand by my original statement, and your response amounts to a straw man argument, because you have misinterpreted my point.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

Don't take it personally my friend, no offence meant, I just disagree with what you have said.

[MickeyT2008]

You have the right to disagree, all I'm suggesting is that we get on with discussing the topic of this forum rather than bitching at each other, there might not be any arguing going on now but there has been over the last few days.  However, I haven't noticed you doing this with anyone so please understand that I wasn't referring to you, nor am I going to point the finger at anyone else either.

The people who actually were arguing don't even seem to be here any more, which means there's no point us discussing it so let's move on...

Anyway, as I said, let's get back on topic here.  Having said that things are moving so slowly that there isn't much to say anyway, it just seems to be mostly bots swapping satosis at the moment.  Hopefully things will pick up a bit later, but it's the weekend so maybe not.  Maybe by Monday the trader bots will have gone insane and made multimillionaires of us all, hey?

[Coinseeker]

On topic, I nailed the speculation last night and looks like more of the same today, especially with the low volume.  Does anybody see anything other than this same flat trend, that could very well last through the weekend?  Up, down, sideways?

[ChartBuddy]

[bito]

You have the right to disagree, all I'm suggesting is that we get on with discussing the topic of this forum rather than bitching at each other, there might not be any arguing going on now but there has been over the last few days.  However, I haven't noticed you doing this with anyone so please understand that I wasn't referring to you, nor am I going to point the finger at anyone else either.

The people who actually were arguing don't even seem to be here any more, which means there's no point us discussing it so let's move on...

Anyway, as I said, let's get back on topic here.  Having said that things are moving so slowly that there isn't much to say anyway, it just seems to be mostly bots swapping satosis at the moment.  Hopefully things will pick up a bit later, but it's the weekend so maybe not.  Maybe by Monday the trader bots will have gone insane and made multimillionaires of us all, hey?

Of course I have the right to disagree, we all have that.

What I am trying to say is that I prefer petty flame wars which happen when volumes are low, over the endless repetitive pointless posts (and images) when the price is moving.

Speculation is about talking about something that might happen, not when it IS HAPPENING.

[MickeyT2008]

You have the right to disagree, all I'm suggesting is that we get on with discussing the topic of this forum rather than bitching at each other, there might not be any arguing going on now but there has been over the last few days.  However, I haven't noticed you doing this with anyone so please understand that I wasn't referring to you, nor am I going to point the finger at anyone else either.

The people who actually were arguing don't even seem to be here any more, which means there's no point us discussing it so let's move on...

Anyway, as I said, let's get back on topic here.  Having said that things are moving so slowly that there isn't much to say anyway, it just seems to be mostly bots swapping satosis at the moment.  Hopefully things will pick up a bit later, but it's the weekend so maybe not.  Maybe by Monday the trader bots will have gone insane and made multimillionaires of us all, hey?

Of course I have the right to disagree, we all have that.

What I am trying to say is that I prefer petty flame wars which happen when volumes are low, over the endless repetitive pointless posts (and images) when the price is moving.

Speculation is about talking about something that might happen, not when it IS HAPPENING.

Can we stop discussing this now please?  It's all been said already

[bito]

Can we stop discussing this now please?  It's all been said already

Sure! If you're not sure press reply!

[Its About Sharing]

I wasn't aware of that. But, due to the design of the network, you can't do naked shorting I would think. So, shorting would mean, borrowing actual shares from someones account and then selling them and promising to buy them back at a later date. I would also think that you would have to cover the sell in cash and would be subject to margin calls as well. I don't know if shorting BTC nor derivatives, could really ever "work" at quite the same was as they do in the stock market. For one, most people don't keep their coins in the exchanges - right there you can't borrow them for sale.

It works on Bitfinex because there's a pool of USD and BTC that's lent on a P2P system in exchange for interest. USD interest is very high and BTC interest is very low.

I guess some investors would do that, but die hard BTC'ers would NEVER EVER allow their coins to be used for such purposes. In the grand scheme of things it is probably quite small at that site and I can only hope it stays that way. Again, due to the nature of the network, you are not going to see naked shorts. And, due to most keeping larger amounts of coins offline, you just won't get the short volume needed to manipulate.

What is a naked short? Bitfinex is a great example, I at least like their concept, because it's actually "from the people, for the people" due to their P2P lending system. There are margin requirements, which by the way, could be one point the CFTC could regulate. (the requirements)

I'm not sure if I like it or not, because our overall goal should be a higher price, but I'm not sure, if my thought process isn't to shortsighted and this is an valid argument at all, because they have to buy back the coins when closing the position..

Anyway, you missed one importent point when it comes to money: where money can be made, there will always be people who try to exploit that. A current example would be the "true believers", who would never ever sell a Bitcoin, vs. the speculators, who trade the swings and are selling, buying lower etc.

Another thing to think about.. when we trade, we aren't actually transfering Bitcoins on the exchanges, but I assume, all Bitcoins are backed up by real Bitcoins.

I've read that the "real" finance does that at an even greater extent - many CFD (?) brokers simulate shorts etc. within their system, which results in a state, where traders play against the house and not against the market.

Well, I don't like shorting. It is another instrument of manipulation. I know derivatives can help miners, just as how they help farmers in agriculture, but moreso they can be instruments of manipulation. Luckily we are somewhat protected by the "infrastructure"/blockchain of BTC.

Did I miss that point, really? I said a few posts ago that BTC is just an intermediary away from money as we know it. I love what BTC stands for but in the end, not that far from now, I don't see money in it's current form (with or without a central controlling entity) being an answer. When you look at it, clearly money has problems. There is still too much power involved. Something more along the lines of a time based currency, to me, seems like a better solution. But that is alongside, and after, BTC.

When we trade EVERYTHING is in the blockchain. The shorts (which are just sells in this model) are in the blockchain. That is why I said naked shorts can't work. Something to consider with the stock market, A LOT of shares of stock are fake. The stock exchange itself should implement a blockchain model to control counterfeit shares.

[dexX7]

Did I miss that point, really?

Wasn't implying that.

[BitcoinAshley]

[...] Does anybody see anything other than this same flat trend, that could very well last through the weekend?  Up, down, sideways?

I agree; I don't see much reason for any significant price action. Sideways for a while.

IMHO it's likely that some of the big players in the conference are currently using bots with stability algorithms. Either a tank or a huge spike and correction wouldn't look too good during the conference. Not that they have the power to completely protect against volatility, nor are they willing to risk more than a small percent of their bitcoins, but for people with large stashes it's not too hard to keep the market from doing crazy shit when you don't want it to, especially when your "bitcoin bros" are helping.

I don't think that's the main reason for the boring (healthy) price action. I think that's just the way it is right now. Market making could be a secondary factor, though.

[Loozik]

Does anybody see anything other than this same flat trend, that could very well last through the weekend?  Up, down, sideways?

Yes, I do. I have a magical indicator that can see into the future  I am posting what the indicator tells me.



Sorry, I couldn't resist

[adamstgBit]

 
silly bears...

[Loozik]

silly bears...

Haha, no!

I am just joking 

[Jaroslaw]

silly bears...

Get some cash and pump the price i want to short

[adamstgBit]

silly bears...

Get some cash and pump the price i want to short

why would you want to short ?

[Pale Phoenix]

Well, a 2000 BTC sale can for sure kill a rally (smaller one). I would think for shorting to really really matter, we would have to be talking in the 10's of thousands? Thoughts.

Thanks for the information by the way. We have to look at everything, even those things we don't like to see. 

As Abandon mentioned, there are already new players coming online, and we'll continue to see more opportunities for shorting as the market matures. I think that's a good thing for market stability.

Yes, IMO a realistic, dispassionate analysis of your investments (or anything really) is incredibly important. I'm definitely a long term BTC bull, but I have to put a lot of effort into staying in touch with reality because I'm my own worst enemy. I've been burnt by my own willful blindness more than a few times.

[ElectricMucus]

Does anybody see anything other than this same flat trend, that could very well last through the weekend?  Up, down, sideways?

Yes, I do. I have a magical indicator that can see into the future  I am posting what the indicator tells me.

Sorry, I couldn't resist

Is that a wavelet transform?

[adamstgBit]

what's with all this bearish sentiment.

i guess you been to busy looking at charts to see that bitcoin is on fire!

[ElectricMucus]

what's with all this bearish sentiment.

i guess you been to busy looking at charts to see that bitcoin is on fire!

Most of it comes from the Coinlab lawsuit, the DHS dwolla account freeze and satoshi dice blocking the US.
I think that is a pretty stern combination, but what do I know.