Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

Wow, I was under a rock during the doldrums and never even heard of MaxCoin.

that is....so lame, smh

[1714840437]

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[rjclarke2000]

Can't wait for R0achCoin.

Edit. It's very heavy and you have to meet in person to trade it or have it posted.

[empowering]

I kinda agree with 404Revolution on Max Keiser though, in that he had me believing he was one of us right up until that whole MaxCoin fiasco.

You can't believe in Bitcoin as a single, consolidated worldwide payment system, and then simultaneously actively seek to compete/usurp/undermine it by launching another coin version or fork with your own fkn name on it.

I mean, just how narcissistic is that guy? And it shows that all he cared about at the time was money. It forever put a stain on his rep as anti-establishment "truth teller". Just goes to show that you can't let your guard down on these tv personality types, even if they are out there preaching things that you happen to agree with.

Its not actually Max's coin though - its two chaps from London that actually created the coin - as a "tribute" to Max (and no doubt so he would shill it- which for sure he did)

But don't forget Max  was screaming at the world to buy BTC when it was $2 and he never stopped to this day.

I find the goofy chap to be quite refreshing for a TV personality (I hate sanitised television all scripted and patronising)

He ain't a god- but he does have some excellent guests, and he does come out with some  gems now and then... he ain't all bad IMO - he is not exactly a noob or a dimwit

I never touched MaxCoin

(ps Max is also just pro-crypto and blockchain- not just BTC)

(pps lumping Max Keiser and Donald Trump in with Pairs Hilton is a bit much too imo - you can dislike them both but its apples and oranges)

[Meuh6879]

[xhomerx10]

Wow, I was under a rock during the doldrums and never even heard of MaxCoin.

that is....so lame, smh

 To add to the lameness, when the coin was launched "live" on his show, the executable terminated abnormally...  

[d_eddie]

Q: So what do you do when you are large, wealthy hedge fund investors, and you want to take a large position in Bitcoin? You don't want to pay market price and enter long, as there are not enough coins in the exchange float to get a good price.

A: And the best way to 'shake the trees' is...? (Hint: it just happened) 

My thoughts exactly. Add to "wealthy hedge fund investors": people about to launch derivatives in the USA - they need real collateral, at least until the SEC eventually decides to turn a blind eye to the intricate details.

[d_eddie]

I was told cheap coins? 

These are cheap coins...

It's just that he wanted the cheaper coins.

[empowering]

I was told cheap coins? 

These are cheap coins...

It's just that he wanted the cheaper coins.

You can't always get what you want...

But if you try sometimes.... you might just find...

You get what you need.

[cAPSLOCK]

At what point would we leave "return to normal" behind?

Pretty sure it's the Despair part that happens next. :/

hmmmmm....


Can you tell  me where you think the price was at "take off" during "awareness stage"  and  then tell me exactly who those institutional buyers were at that time... as per the chart?

V curious.

Accordingly we still don't have significant "institutional money" so would this not put us somewhere far further back on the chart?

Serious question... what significant institutional investors money was getting in at say $200?  because as far as I remember - institutional money was about as interested in BTC as dogshit- until very recently -and even recently they have surely hardly even dipped their toe? or can you point to where institutional investors came in? and who  do you suppose those institutional investors are ?

Curious as to your logic.

Or do you just mean we are about to reach a despair phase in a lesser cycle?

(ps also I hear an estimate that there are 300,000 people that hold more than a whole  Bitcoin-are you saying that the "Public" have been buying already? again I don't see it yet- do you suppose it could be that we are much further back on the chart - I ask again?)

(pps- could it be that we are still taxiing on runway - prior to take off?)

(or could it be that one size fits all generic charts - just are not accurate models?)

To be honest I was just employing a little black humor.  I recently posted to another speculation thread some of the things I think are different about "this time around".

Differences from 2014...

1.  The crypto market has matured to the point that we are seeing serious coverage in the financial media
2.  We no longer have a single point of failure (darkmarkets/gox)
3.  The alt market is a serious part of the cryptosphere.  This is good and bad because:
   a.  Legitimate projects have sprung up to either blossom into their own right or at least provide a testbed for BTC (monero, litecoin)
   b.  Speculative projects have come which have an effect of being a mixed blessing in the crypto space (ETH)
   c.  ICOs.   And all the scammy pyramid schemes that are reminding us of the dotcom bubble but a sleazy version
4.  Tech has advanced with hardware wallets, payment gateways, etc.
5.  BTC is maturing as it collectively decides how to handle it's limitations.
6.  We are on the threshold of 2nd layer functionality.

So my first question is... can we really expect another 2-3 year bear?  It just seems so unlikely considering the momentum we now see... 

My second question had to do with XMR so I'll spare us here.

[Torque]

(pps lumping Max Keiser and Donald Trump in with Pairs Hilton is a bit much too imo - you can dislike them both but its apples and oranges)

Ya' know, if ol Max would just come out and publically admit that "Yeah that Maxcoin thing... that was so boneheaded and stupid. I don't know what I was thinking. Bitcoin surely is the way to go." then maybe he'd earn the respect points back in my eyes. But he never did that.

Otherwise, I agree that occasionally he has some good guests on his show.

So my first question is... can we really expect another 2-3 year bear?  It just seems so unlikely considering the momentum we now see...  

Yeah, the only way I could see another 2 year bear market is if Bitcoin got massively pumped from *here* tripling or quadrupling within 6-8 months, and then some black swan bad news came out of left field. Like a stock market crash, which could have some short term knock on effect to all markets including Bitcoin.

Other than that, I'm just not seeing it right now. The public is too fearful of Bitcoin, there is no FOMO happening, and the media keeps hammering on it daily.

[sirazimuth]

well then...
 just turned some of my free bitcoin (from free bitcoincash) into 10 silver coins here.
on sale! one time only spot price for 1st time customers only!! woopdy doo!!
I know, I know! terrible trade. But this damn volatility is killin me in my old age!!
But no worries tho. only a piddly .043btc worth and they accept btc, so what the hell, eh?
Maybe me and my 10 year old can play tiddlywinks with em... 

 And besides, gotta have some pm in my porty and make rOACH proud of me!

[Torque]

well then...
 just turned some of my free bitcoin (from free bitcoincash) into 10 silver coins here.
on sale! one time only spot price for 1st time customers only!! woopdy doo!!
I know, I know! terrible trade. But this damn volatility is killin me in my old age!!
But no worries tho. only a piddly .043btc worth and they accept btc, so what the hell, eh?
Maybe me and my 10 year old can play tiddlywinks with em... 

 And besides, gotta have some pm in my porty and make rOACH proud of me!

Hey there's no shame in diversifying bitcoin into some PMs. I would encourage anyone to hold both Bitcoin and PMs. I see PMs as more hedge insurance though.

[JayJuanGee]

Q: So what do you do when you are large, wealthy hedge fund investors, and you want to take a large position in Bitcoin? You don't want to pay market price and enter long, as there are not enough coins in the exchange float to get a good price.

A: And the best way to 'shake the trees' is...? (Hint: it just happened) 

How many coins are they able to get? 

Just to get the price to go down, they have to dump 10s of thousands of coins, because no one is selling merely based on FUD, are they?   They gotta have FUD plus significant dumping, right? 

and then they have to buy back at least the same number of coins as they had dumped plus whatever number of coins that they had wanted to acquire, right?

The total drop was from $4980 to $2970 - however, the FUD induced drop was from $4200 - yet they are not going to be able to buy back exactly at the bottom of the price, either... so they may have been able to buy back most of their coins (dumped ones plus acquisition target ones) between $3.2k and $3.6k, perhaps?  But that certainly takes some focus, because likely even the manipulators don't know how far it is going to go down, and they don't want to buy back completely and then the price drops another 20% or something like that, right?

In this case, when the up and down is so quick, I am not sure if they would have been able to achieve their objectives and to get enough weak hands to cave in nor to keep the price down long enough in order to accomplish a meaningful BTC quantity target? Really hard to know for sure, I am sure they shook a lot of coins, as you said, but I question how omnipotent and effective these manipulation folks really are, as you seem to imply.

[JayJuanGee]

I didn't expected this rebound back to $4000+ so fast 

Also, today at work some co-workers came to me asking that i should sell my coins asap because...they saw that article from JPMorgan.

I told them that's bullshit they should buy the dip with a smile on my face.

They where laughing so hard they had tears in there eyes...

Explaining why they where wrong is just talking to a wall...just pointless.

Those faces are priceless when we reach a new ATH again 

 One of these ATH's I hope not to have co-workers anymore 
(except my two gifted guys of course - you know who you are!)

1 Minute silence for the golden bitcoins dropped on the way down to be picked up by others

(having said that, a while back i sold and lost 0.5 i only have 1.2 now and 28 ltc)
Hold until 1 mill

I had weathered a big drop before, and kept my BTC, but lost interest in it for a couple of years (no mining, no posting here, etc.). Long time hodler so, but mostly invested in the stock market. When we passed 2000€ a few months ago I decided that the stock market wasn't good enough, sold all I could and more than doubled my BTC stash.

I wasn't entirely sure of my hodler resolve after that bold move, since BTC went from ATH to ATH, there was no test of it.

When it went down the other day, I can't say I was happy (for one I had no fiat to buy the dip), but dumping never even came up in my mind.

So now I'm more certain than ever, hodl !

My coworkers want me to sell too. I have told them that my goal is to leave them fending for themselves while spending my days drinking mojitos on a beach, but they don't understand, they don't believe it's possible.

aesma:     You may want to consider some form of incrementalism, and it does not need to be anything crazy.

That is if you sell a small amount as the price goes up, it will give you some better feelings when the price goes down.

I am frequently tweaking my system - yet I have found selling approximately 1% of my BTC holdings for every 10% price rise to work for me; however it does still bring questions about stacking up so much cash if the price continues going up without going down and questions regarding strategically at what price drop increments to buy back when the price inevitably is going to go down.   

There is still stress when the price goes considerably in either direction - but of course the stress is a little bit less if you are able to shave a bit off as it goes up and add a bit as it goes down.   

[JayJuanGee]

At what point would we leave "return to normal" behind?

Pretty sure it's the Despair part that happens next. :/

hmmmmm....


Can you tell  me where you think the price was at "take off" during "awareness stage"  and  then tell me exactly who those institutional buyers were at that time... as per the chart?

V curious.

Accordingly we still don't have significant "institutional money" so would this not put us somewhere far further back on the chart?

Serious question... what significant institutional investors money was getting in at say $200?  because as far as I remember - institutional money was about as interested in BTC as dogshit- until very recently -and even recently they have surely hardly even dipped their toe? or can you point to where institutional investors came in? and who  do you suppose those institutional investors are ?

Curious as to your logic.

Or do you just mean we are about to reach a despair phase in a lesser cycle?

(ps also I hear an estimate that there are 300,000 people that hold more than a whole  Bitcoin-are you saying that the "Public" have been buying already? again I don't see it yet- do you suppose it could be that we are much further back on the chart - I ask again?)

(pps- could it be that we are still taxiing on runway - prior to take off?)

(or could it be that one size fits all generic charts - just are not accurate models?)

I understand that your questions are for cAPSLOCK; however, I just cannot resist chiming in... Go figure!

Over the years, that chart has come up frequently, and it does seem to capture some aspects of various interim bubbles, and it may even capture some aspects of some speculative assets that go through a shorter life cycle and maybe just one hype cycle.

I am with you, empowering, that it does not seem to capture bitcoin very well, and it could be that we are quite early in such a life-cycle curve, if such a curve would be applicable to bitcoin in any kind of meaningful sense.

If bitcoin were to be some kind of flash in the pan that ends up dwindling, then yeah, we could see it petering out, and none of us know whether ultimately bitcoin will peter out - especially if it were to get sabotaged or coopted in some way, right?

Bitcoin has surely shown a certain level of robustness, and I think that some of us HODLers recognize that robustness, and we have been rewarded financially (and generously) for HODLing through the good and bad times of bitcoin.. while recognizing that bitcoin is still building and bitcoin has a foundation that provides a considerable amount of upside potential, which would be still putting us in the likely early stages of any growth curve that is even a bit earlier than institutional investors in the above depiction, as you say.

It is a bit unclear about whether some BIG ASS upside curve is necessary in all asset classes, and especially if their life cycle ends up being a couple hundred years, then you may have a different kind of curve.

Maybe the sum of the situation is that this particular graph does not apply very well to bitcoin - because even though we have gone through numerous hype cycles, those hype cycles may show up as blips within a larger s-curve adoption scale - and sure, what are the odds of an s-curve adoption, certainly not 100%.... but I thin that a lot of bitcoin HODLers/accumulators recognize that there are decent chances in bitcoin to go through s-curve adoption, and that we remain in early years in the lower levels of such an s-curve slope.  

Personally, I am quite satisfied with my investment, and I would even be content if BTC prices were to languish between $1k and $4k for several years; however, many of us likely recognize that it is more likely that we are going up from here (at least if we consider the longer term), and we have decent chances of continuing to be rewarded generously for our bitcoin investment, whether we are just beginning to establish a stake or if we have already established a decent stake.

Edit: In the meantime, some of the Chinese might get left out, if they do not take actions to protect their bitcoin investments, and if they have been a longer term bitcoin investor, they will likely figure out ways to store their bitcoin and to exchange them in the future, or perhaps, just become longer term HODLers, until the regulatory regime becomes more friendly - and like many folks said, a lot of this may just be FUD that changes chinese options, without completely removing their options (including use of local bitcoins and other direct means).

[mymenace]

At what point would we leave "return to normal" behind?

Pretty sure it's the Despair part that happens next. :/

hmmmmm....


Can you tell  me where you think the price was at "take off" during "awareness stage"  and  then tell me exactly who those institutional buyers were at that time... as per the chart?

V curious.

Accordingly we still don't have significant "institutional money" so would this not put us somewhere far further back on the chart?

Serious question... what significant institutional investors money was getting in at say $200?  because as far as I remember - institutional money was about as interested in BTC as dogshit- until very recently -and even recently they have surely hardly even dipped their toe? or can you point to where institutional investors came in? and who  do you suppose those institutional investors are ?

Curious as to your logic.

Or do you just mean we are about to reach a despair phase in a lesser cycle?

(ps also I hear an estimate that there are 300,000 people that hold more than a whole  Bitcoin-are you saying that the "Public" have been buying already? again I don't see it yet- do you suppose it could be that we are much further back on the chart - I ask again?)

(pps- could it be that we are still taxiing on runway - prior to take off?)

(or could it be that one size fits all generic charts - just are not accurate models?)

I understand that your questions are for cAPSLOCK; however, I just cannot resist chiming in... Go figure!

Over the years, that chart has come up frequently, and it does seem to capture some aspects of various interim bubbles, and it may even capture some aspects of some speculative assets that go through a shorter life cycle and maybe just one hype cycle.

I am with you, empowering, that it does not seem to capture bitcoin very well, and it could be that we are quite early in such a life-cycle curve, if such a curve would be applicable to bitcoin in any kind of meaningful sense.

If bitcoin were to be some kind of flash in the pan that ends up dwindling, then yeah, we could see it petering out, and none of us know whether ultimately bitcoin will peter out - especially if it were to get sabotaged or coopted in some way, right?

Bitcoin has surely shown a certain level of robustness, and I think that some of us HODLers recognize that robustness, and we have been rewarded financially (and generously) for HODLing through the good and bad times of bitcoin.. while recognizing that bitcoin is still building and bitcoin has a foundation that provides a considerable amount of upside potential, which would be still putting us in the likely early stages of any growth curve that is even a bit earlier than institutional investors in the above depiction, as you say.

It is a bit unclear about whether some BIG ASS upside curve is necessary in all asset classes, and especially if their life cycle ends up being a couple hundred years, then you may have a different kind of curve.

Maybe the sum of the situation is that this particular graph does not apply very well to bitcoin - because even though we have gone through numerous hype cycles, those hype cycles may show up as blips within a larger s-curve adoption scale - and sure, what are the odds of an s-curve adoption, certainly not 100%.... but I thin that a lot of bitcoin HODLers/accumulators recognize that there are decent chances in bitcoin to go through s-curve adoption, and that we remain in early years in the lower levels of such an s-curve slope.  

Personally, I am quite satisfied with my investment, and I would even be content if BTC prices were to languish between $1k and $4k for several years; however, many of us likely recognize that it is more likely that we are going up from here (at least if we consider the longer term), and we have decent chances of continuing to be rewarded generously for our bitcoin investment, whether we are just beginning to establish a stake or if we have already established a decent stake.

Edit: In the meantime, some of the Chinese might get left out, if they do not take actions to protect their bitcoin investments, and if they have been a longer term bitcoin investor, they will likely figure out ways to store their bitcoin and to exchange them in the future, or perhaps, just become longer term HODLers, until the regulatory regime becomes more friendly - and like many folks said, a lot of this may just be FUD that changes chinese options, without completely removing their options (including use of local bitcoins and other direct means).

 we are at the bear trap phase, ignition has been lit, be prepared to see something that is the complete opposite of the last 3 years

[Torque]

Life imitates art, or..?

https://twitter.com/JimBTC/status/909531979015708672

[realr0ach]

Hey there's no shame in diversifying bitcoin into some PMs. I would encourage anyone to hold both Bitcoin and PMs. I see PMs as more hedge insurance though.

It is said the purpose of metals is a hedge against government.  Since the transaction validators of all cryptocurrency are designed to centralize, and thus inevitably be controlled by the govt directly or indirectly, just what the fuck is bitcoin supposed to be a hedge against?  It's sure as fuck not a hedge against government.

[Last of the V8s]

[Dakustaking76]

At what point would we leave "return to normal" behind?

Pretty sure it's the Despair part that happens next. :/

hmmmmm....


Can you tell  me where you think the price was at "take off" during "awareness stage"  and  then tell me exactly who those institutional buyers were at that time... as per the chart?

V curious.

Accordingly we still don't have significant "institutional money" so would this not put us somewhere far further back on the chart?

Serious question... what significant institutional investors money was getting in at say $200?  because as far as I remember - institutional money was about as interested in BTC as dogshit- until very recently -and even recently they have surely hardly even dipped their toe? or can you point to where institutional investors came in? and who  do you suppose those institutional investors are ?

Curious as to your logic.

Or do you just mean we are about to reach a despair phase in a lesser cycle?

(ps also I hear an estimate that there are 300,000 people that hold more than a whole  Bitcoin-are you saying that the "Public" have been buying already? again I don't see it yet- do you suppose it could be that we are much further back on the chart - I ask again?)

(pps- could it be that we are still taxiing on runway - prior to take off?)

(or could it be that one size fits all generic charts - just are not accurate models?)

I understand that your questions are for cAPSLOCK; however, I just cannot resist chiming in... Go figure!

Over the years, that chart has come up frequently, and it does seem to capture some aspects of various interim bubbles, and it may even capture some aspects of some speculative assets that go through a shorter life cycle and maybe just one hype cycle.

I am with you, empowering, that it does not seem to capture bitcoin very well, and it could be that we are quite early in such a life-cycle curve, if such a curve would be applicable to bitcoin in any kind of meaningful sense.

If bitcoin were to be some kind of flash in the pan that ends up dwindling, then yeah, we could see it petering out, and none of us know whether ultimately bitcoin will peter out - especially if it were to get sabotaged or coopted in some way, right?

Bitcoin has surely shown a certain level of robustness, and I think that some of us HODLers recognize that robustness, and we have been rewarded financially (and generously) for HODLing through the good and bad times of bitcoin.. while recognizing that bitcoin is still building and bitcoin has a foundation that provides a considerable amount of upside potential, which would be still putting us in the likely early stages of any growth curve that is even a bit earlier than institutional investors in the above depiction, as you say.

It is a bit unclear about whether some BIG ASS upside curve is necessary in all asset classes, and especially if their life cycle ends up being a couple hundred years, then you may have a different kind of curve.

Maybe the sum of the situation is that this particular graph does not apply very well to bitcoin - because even though we have gone through numerous hype cycles, those hype cycles may show up as blips within a larger s-curve adoption scale - and sure, what are the odds of an s-curve adoption, certainly not 100%.... but I thin that a lot of bitcoin HODLers/accumulators recognize that there are decent chances in bitcoin to go through s-curve adoption, and that we remain in early years in the lower levels of such an s-curve slope.  

Personally, I am quite satisfied with my investment, and I would even be content if BTC prices were to languish between $1k and $4k for several years; however, many of us likely recognize that it is more likely that we are going up from here (at least if we consider the longer term), and we have decent chances of continuing to be rewarded generously for our bitcoin investment, whether we are just beginning to establish a stake or if we have already established a decent stake.

Edit: In the meantime, some of the Chinese might get left out, if they do not take actions to protect their bitcoin investments, and if they have been a longer term bitcoin investor, they will likely figure out ways to store their bitcoin and to exchange them in the future, or perhaps, just become longer term HODLers, until the regulatory regime becomes more friendly - and like many folks said, a lot of this may just be FUD that changes chinese options, without completely removing their options (including use of local bitcoins and other direct means).

 we are at the bear trap phase, ignition has been lit, be prepared to see something that is the complete opposite of the last 3 years

Who are you ?
Your saying were in a bull trap..
you can see the future?

What i can see is that bitcoin goes up healthy..
Recovered from the China fud what happend..