Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[RoomBot]

So way back in 2013, I devised a little unscientific theory as a way to measure the growth of Bitcoin and thus it's supported price floor.

I didn't have an accurate way to measure the exact number of participants and accounts across the world, so I just used Coinbase as a reference.

I surmised that for each 5X multiple in number of accounts, the price would be supported at around a 10X from the last price floor.

In 2015, Coinbase had around 2M accounts, and the price floor was found ~$250/btc.

Now they have approximately 10M accounts, and the price floor probably sits around $2500/btc (a rough guess).

So to extrapolate, in order to reach a support of $25k/btc, Coinbase would need to hit around 50M accounts.

Can we do it in the next 2-3 years?  I think it's possible. In 4-5 years I think it's a lock.

not bad for having some clue, but i think you should make some adjustments for diminishing supply as well

Well, my unscientific back-of-the-napkin model does kind of take havings roughly every 4 years into account. It sort of assumes that we have a halving event 6-12 months before a new major run up. Otherwise, I think it would take roughly 10X more accounts for a 10X increase in price floor.

Even with an exponential growth model, it seems that there is a throttle bottleneck to how fast Bitcoin popularity and usage will ramp. I think it has a lot to do with the fact that participating in the Bitcoin ecosystem is neither free (must pay-to-play) nor currently open to everyone (e.g., in order to get access to btc through main brokerage channels you must be 18+ years old, you must have a bank account, you must supply proper identification, etc., etc.). As well as the skeptical, tentative nature of an emerging new asset class, so much media press negativity, draconian regulations, etc.

There are still plenty of ways to get around all that.

www.localbitcoins.com-type services.  Peer-to-peer gifts, sales, trades & exchanges on the Blockchain.

[1714481819]

1714481819

[1714481819]

1714481819

[Ibian]

Fiat system has been broken for decades.

Not merely for decades, from the very beginning. Fiat systems always fail, without exception. They are designed that way. And this time will be the biggest fiat bubble in all of history. It will be glorious.

[Torque]

Just have to say, I really enjoy seeing posts from JayJuanGee and also Torque - thank you both for continuing to post. Now, with that out of the way:
....

Bitcoin, systemically, is free from these burdens.[/size]

This is what happens when corruption goes awkward and it doesn 't matter what ideology, has nothing to do with it... . So just wait and see for the first of the "Other" systems country 's going all the way... .
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-24/insiders-view-bitcoinization-venezuela

I would add that citizens of all countries tend to be completely, 100% reactive to what is happening to them, as opposed to being proactive. They wait until things get really bad before outright defying their government and looking for other options. That is why right now Bitcoin is suddenly being seen as a more serious option to their native fiat in places like Venezuela, Greece, Italy, and Spain. In other countries, it's still being regarded as a strange novelty.

The oil EROI has turned a corner and is on a very serious and possibly rapid decline. But just because the oil barons and central banking oligarchs of the world can push their socialized losses to the countries with the least productive GDP output first, doesn't mean that countries like the U.S., U.K, China, Japan, and Germany are forever impervious. First deflation will kick in (what we are experiencing now), then rising inflation (next 10-15 years), then hyperinflation will finally kick in. This won't get fixed until all the world's major economies all default together, and then a global reset will happen. At that point, deflationary assets will reset much higher in relative fiat value terms. Hopefully at that point, the Fed and central banking will collapse altogether.

I for one see where the puck is heading, which is why I chose to get involved with Bitcoin four years ago to protect my wealth, instead of waiting until it gets really bad in my country. Which could still be a decade or two away.

[Ludwig Von]

Just have to say, I really enjoy seeing posts from JayJuanGee and also Torque - thank you both for continuing to post. Now, with that out of the way:
....

Bitcoin, systemically, is free from these burdens.[/size]

This is what happens when corruption goes awkward and it doesn 't matter what ideology, has nothing to do with it... . So just wait and see for the first of the "Other" systems country 's going all the way... .
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-24/insiders-view-bitcoinization-venezuela

I would add that citizens of all countries tend to be completely, 100% reactive to what is happening to them, as opposed to being proactive. They wait until things get really bad before outright defying their government and looking for other options. That is why right now Bitcoin is suddenly being seen as a more serious option to their native fiat in places like Venezuela, Greece, Italy, and Spain. In other countries, it's still being regarded as a strange novelty.

The oil EROI has turned a corner and is on a very serious and possibly rapid decline. But just because the oil barons and central banking oligarchs of the world can push their socialized losses to the countries with the least productive GDP output first, doesn't mean that countries like the U.S., U.K, China, Japan, and Germany are forever impervious. First deflation will kick in (what we are experiencing now), then rising inflation (next 10-15 years), then hyperinflation will finally kick in. This won't get fixed until all the world's major economies all default together, and then a global reset will happen. At that point, deflationary assets will reset much higher in relative fiat value terms. Hopefully at that point, the Fed and central banking will collapse altogether.

I for one see where the puck is heading, which is why I chose to get involved with Bitcoin four years ago to protect my wealth, instead of waiting until it gets really bad in my country. Which could still be a decade or two away.

Well, the native fiat from Italy, Spain and Greece happens to be the same as for Germany... . So we have inflation (lower real income for the working people) and deflation (lower cost of capital thanks to free funny money from the central banks) all at the same time. It is so bizarre there even is no term for, stagflation is not adequate. Debtflation might be closest... .

[RoomBot]

Fiat system has been broken for decades.

Not merely for decades, from the very beginning. Fiat systems always fail, without exception. They are designed that way. And this time will be the biggest fiat bubble in all of history. It will be glorious.

At 40% interest, the Federal Reserve will keep it going as long as possible.

What a deal!  They get $1.40 for every dollar they print.

When US can't pay for all of that, they just print more.
at 40% interest.

Guess who really pays for it?

I    BTC

[Arriemoller]

JPM/Daimon reported for market manipulation.

"The company says it has filed a ‘market abuse’ report with the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, after JP Morgan’s team purchased bitcoin derivative notes for clients on the Stockholm-based exchange Nasdaq Nordic. Schweitzer says the fact that JP Morgan purchased the bitcoin exchange-traded notes before and after the chief executive’s public statements, it “smells like market manipulation.”"

https://news.bitcoin.com/jamie-dimons-bitcoin-statements-reported-as-market-abuse-in-sweden/?utm_source=Bitcoin.com+Subscribers&utm_campaign=d3595050b1-Daily+Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_ea978414cb-d3595050b1-215678221&goal=0_ea978414cb-d3595050b1-215678221&mc_cid=d3595050b1&mc_eid=6b9c845fce

[chennan]

-snip-

Fiat around the world is heavily infested and broken from the burdens of:
-regulatory burden on fiat banks & system (incredibly costly)
-insurance fraud
-unemployment & other welfare costs
-inflating fiat to keep stock market rising and to keep house-prices from collapsing
-frivolous legal costs (lawsuits bogging the system down)
-financing conflicts, bombs, and "aid"
-keeping monopolies with internet access centralized and search engine crawlers centralized
-money laundering
-false claims (outside of insurance)
-chargebacks
-state-sponsored corruption and unofficial corruption (governments and gangs, banks and conartists)
-retirement obligations (debasement in value to keep up with payments from government or other retirement-obligations)
-fake credit (goods being transacted with credit-loss, replaced by inflation of monetary base rather than bringing perpetrators & source to justice)

Bitcoin, systemically, is free from these burdens.

I feel that if Bitcoin becomes the "new monetary system of the future" it will become vulnerable to get tied into those burdens you speak of.  As long as Bitcoin remains limited with a scheduled supply curve, and not have the system go back into the "gold standard notes -> fiat notes" again... we'll be fine in that future monetary system.

[JayJuanGee]

Just have to say, I really enjoy seeing posts from JayJuanGee and also Torque - thank you both for continuing to post. Now, with that out of the way:

What say any of you to the following?

Efforts by any country's central bank or government to regulate bitcoin (ie make illegal or legalizing) will accelerate that country's demise of fiat value. These costs of such attempts and many other costs are absorbed by monetary inflation - making fiat even more worthless over time. Fiat system has been broken for decades. Bitcoin however had reached escape velocity globally 4-years ago in 2013 thus will continue to rise & be adopted as it is the only escape from financial slavery and an opt-out of war-making, slave-labor producing central bank regimes.

Fiat around the world is heavily infested and broken from the burdens of:
-regulatory burden on fiat banks & system (incredibly costly)
-insurance fraud
-unemployment & other welfare costs
-inflating fiat to keep stock market rising and to keep house-prices from collapsing
-frivolous legal costs (lawsuits bogging the system down)
-financing conflicts, bombs, and "aid"
-keeping monopolies with internet access centralized and search engine crawlers centralized
-money laundering
-false claims (outside of insurance)
-chargebacks
-state-sponsored corruption and unofficial corruption (governments and gangs, banks and conartists)
-retirement obligations (debasement in value to keep up with payments from government or other retirement-obligations)
-fake credit (goods being transacted with credit-loss, replaced by inflation of monetary base rather than bringing perpetrators & source to justice)

Bitcoin, systemically, is free from these burdens.

Thanks for recognizing the posts of torque and me... You know a decent proportion of our posts battle each other... hahahahaha..   

Regarding your substantive points:  I doubt that it is logically consistent to assert that all of the items on your list are inherently bad regarding status quo fiat systems. Not only is there a mixture of good and bad, even in a kind of revolutionary scenario it is likely to take a minimum of 20 years to purge and adapt these kinds of various systems to some more equitable things that might be accomplishable through bitcoin and/or other cryptos.  I doubt that a libertarian vision that completely removes government (and or public) input would be able to accomplish a fair society.

Don't get me wrong, bitcoin is likely to play a large part in the evolution of these various systems in the direction that you suggest - but surely it is going to take a lot of time and perhaps a few battles that include lots of blood, tears and sweat... and surely no clear and/or direct path from point A to point B.

[JayJuanGee]

I would still like to see a real test of the medium term log support line in this short term bear before I am happy to call it over.  The low spike on the 14th was ~$270 shy of a real test.  Of course, that line is rising all the time, I currently put it around $2870, crossing our current downtrend on or about Oct 11.

And, if you don't get that, then what you gonna do, jojo69?  Throw a temper tantrum?  hahahaha  







just kidding... I am just kidding, come on, jojo69.  Can't you take a joke?  



O.k... let's get serious for a second:  Don't we already recognize that bitcoin does not follow any of these kinds of rules... sure, it could be true that another lower test is healthy - but even if we do not get such a test, we can be healthy also, right?  

If we don't get another test of the lower, then likely the upper will be less strong - but so what?  I doubt that failure to go down again would actually stop prices from going up, if there is such momentum.... And a question remains about what kind of confidence there is and if a lot of this China FUD is continuing to put a sufficient amount of damper on the margins regarding the quantity of BTC that bull whales and the masses are willing to purchase at these prices and higher prices?

Actually, the quantity of bear FUD causes me a bit more bullishness in my own personal perspective - even though I am still kind of teetering on more or less a 50/50 perspective, with maybe only slight leanings on the bullish side of the ledger.

[bankpower]

3669$ and yet no signs of upcoming pumps...

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

3669$ and yet no signs of upcoming pumps...

You're supposed to be shuffling through the alt market. Don't you follow people on the Twitter?

[Ibian]

3669$ and yet no signs of upcoming pumps...

You're supposed to be shuffling through the alt market. Don't you follow people on the Twitter?

Twitter is cancer.

[conspirosphere.tk]

But just because the oil barons and central banking oligarchs of the world can push their socialized losses to the countries with the least productive GDP output first, doesn't mean that countries like the U.S., U.K, China, Japan, and Germany are forever impervious. First deflation will kick in (what we are experiencing now), then rising inflation (next 10-15 years), then hyperinflation will finally kick in. This won't get fixed until all the world's major economies all default together, and then a global reset will happen. At that point, deflationary assets will reset much higher in relative fiat value terms. Hopefully at that point, the Fed and central banking will collapse altogether.

I for one see where the puck is heading, which is why I chose to get involved with Bitcoin four years ago to protect my wealth, instead of waiting until it gets really bad in my country. Which could still be a decade or two away.

Their game is more subtle: TPTB are already defaulting gradually on selected sections of the population (typically the younger and disorganized) by slashing their current and future benefits and loading them with debt while keeping every sort of benefits for the older generations (boomers, retired) who tend to be more organized, relatively insider, and who keep voting for their free sh*t and for screwing their nephews.  Same for inflation/deflation: TPTB will keep pumping the assets of the 1% (blue chip stocks and bonds) and let the typical assets of the masses (residential real estate to say one) boom and bust going with the cycle.

But maybe it's always been a generational game, where the older ones try to enslave or sell in slavery the younger since biblical times. And that's why they used to try to encourage the reproduction of our specie: ultimately there is always a need of masses of slaves, ideally voluntary slaves, blind to their chains.

[Torque]

Well, the native fiat from Italy, Spain and Greece happens to be the same as for Germany... . So we have inflation (lower real income for the working people) and deflation (lower cost of capital thanks to free funny money from the central banks) all at the same time. It is so bizarre there even is no term for, stagflation is not adequate. Debtflation might be closest... .

We have that in the U.S. too. Most people haven't see a wage increase here for 8 years, and if they have they got a little 2-3% bump last year maybe. But since 2009, the price of things like houses, cars, electronics, and utilities has drifted up along with a fake stock market recovery but not in relation to wages. Wages have for the most part remained flat for the better part of 8 years. Health care premiums have doubled from a decade ago. Internet access is up 200%. Cell phones are up 300% and cellular plans are up 200%. Utilities are easily 30-40% higher than they were in 2009. Now we are starting to things like food drift up higher a little bit. Of course, the Fed doesn't count things like utilities and food in their inflation calculations.

Most people are loaded with debt (house, cars, credit cards, student loans, etc.) and have hit peak debt. So they are just grateful to have a job where their wage isn't really increasing than no job at all. Some are probably trying to pay their debts down. But the question becomes, when are most people going to have that light bulb moment when they realize "OMG, my salary is not going up! It may never go up again from here. At this rate, I am never going to pay off my debts. Meanwhile, my health care premium continues to go up. I can also see that the price of things like houses, cars, food, utilities, internet, cell phone, entertainment like movie tickets, vacations, etc. are drifting higher every year. By the time I am old, I will have no retirement saved up at all."

Eventually, inflation of everyday things will accelerate while wages continue to remain flat or perhaps even decrease. Inflation is like an insidious disease, and when it begins to run away, it quickly eats away at all your saved hard work. The analogy of the frog in the boiling pot comes to mind... you don't notice until it is too late (you're dead).

[El duderino_]

END list, good luck!

19/9 rayx12 
24/9 kidbitter*
25/9 binaryreign*
26/9 player99
27/9 xhomerx10
28/9 khufuking
29/9 jhayzxenon*
30/9 yermom
01/10 teamtarp*
02/10 bitchick *
03/10 ^BuTcH^
04/10 minermannc
05/10 punisher1314*
06/10 jimbo Toronto*
07/10 player514*
09/10 Oinas*
10/10 bikerlezno*     LAST WINNER
11/10 ted e. bare
12/10 harrymmmm*
13/10 cryptoqueeen*
14/10 bitcoinaire*
15/10 ludwigvon*
16/10 BitchicksHusband*
17/10 shroomskit_disgrace
18/10 dakustaking76
19/10 birobob*
20/10 leowonderful
21/10 paashaas
22/10 cmacwiz*
23/10 spaceman_spiff_original*
24/10 colonel panic
25/10 soullyG
26/10 weltmaster*
27/10 vroom
28/10 entons*
29/10 roombot*
30/10 notme*
31/10 twocorn
01/11 YamashitaRen
02/11 orpington
03/11 Haciendo*
04/11 lilloboy
05/11 jojo69*
06/11 d_eddie*
07/11 empowering*
08/11 northyplole*
09/11 podyx*
10/11 u9y42*
11/11 starving_marvin
12/11 sirazimuth*
13/11 dotto*
14/11 hazukison*
15/11 organic*
16/11 Heater*
17/11 foxygoxy*
18/11 600watt
19/11 arriemoller
20/11 drbrockcoin*
21/11 icygreen*
22/11 rakessh
23/11 erisdiscordia
24/11 oblox*
25/11 mfort312*
26/11 globbo*
27/11 lfc_bitcoin
28/11 conspirosphere.tk*
29/11 rjclarck2000
30/11 last of the v8s *
01/12 newworldcoiner*
02/12 souspeed*
03/12 jaapgvk
04/12 sgk*
05/12 fluidjax
07/12 free-bit.co.in
08/12 imbatman
09/12 yonton
10/12 fragout*
11/12 itod
12/12 lontonbit*
13/12 CistaCista
14/12 cAPSLOCK
15/12 philivey
16/12 marcus_of_augustus*
17/12 mattimann
18/12 coincube*
24/12 bones261*
25/12 mndan
26/12 karatma1*
28/12 deathangel*
30/12 erre
31/12 elwar
01/01/2018 lewis pirenne*
02/01/2018 addressed*
03/01/2018 bathy
05/01/2018 bitcoin psycho
06/01/2018 chowhan
07/01/2018 fabiorem*
18/01/2018 raja_mbz*
21/12 2dogs
22/01/2018 _javi_
26/01/2018 kurious*
28/01/2018 steelboy*
29/01/2018 alcohodl
01/02/2018 cristitcm
18/02/2018 in the silence
20/04/2018 fractal universe*
15/03/2018 Carl85
15/05/2018 oldtimegin*
15/06/2018 samson
16/08/2018 samarkand

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

ATH is tomorrow. Because Twitter.

[profitgenerator212]

A few days ago, lots of the twitter peeps that I follow were encouraging people to go on over to BitMEX and short the crap out of BTC. Many people ended up getting rekt with dead cat bounces. Good luck to you. I hope that your "system" is a real harpoon whale killer. Needless to say, many of those same twitter peeps now have the wind knocked out of their sails.  Reminds me of Moby Dick. The whale wins in the end.

I'm not shorting via a CFD position on an exchange, via margin trading.

I am doing a manual short using SBD to keep my purchasing power while BTC/USD potentially goes down. It's less risky that way (and no counterparty risk either):

https://steemit.com/money/@profitgenerator/profit-from-crypto-crash

[savetherainforest]

Is Catalonia going to adopt bitcoin and replace the Euro??    

[conspirosphere.tk]

I'm not shorting via a CFD position on an exchange, via margin trading.

I am doing a manual short using SBD to keep my purchasing power while BTC/USD potentially goes down. It's less risky that way (and no counterparty risk either):

https://steemit.com/money/@profitgenerator/profit-from-crypto-crash

Good look with shorting at the bottom. Enjoy hodling your fiat.

[TwoCorn]

Well, the native fiat from Italy, Spain and Greece happens to be the same as for Germany... . So we have inflation (lower real income for the working people) and deflation (lower cost of capital thanks to free funny money from the central banks) all at the same time. It is so bizarre there even is no term for, stagflation is not adequate. Debtflation might be closest... .

We have that in the U.S. too. Most people haven't see a wage increase here for 8 years, and if they have they got a little 2-3% bump last year maybe. But since 2009, the price of things like houses, cars, electronics, and utilities has drifted up along with a fake stock market recovery but not in relation to wages. Wages have for the most part remained flat for the better part of 8 years. Health care premiums have doubled from a decade ago. Internet access is up 200%. Cell phones are up 300% and cellular plans are up 200%. Utilities are easily 30-40% higher than they were in 2009. Now we are starting to things like food drift up higher a little bit. Of course, the Fed doesn't count things like utilities and food in their inflation calculations.

Most people are loaded with debt (house, cars, credit cards, student loans, etc.) and have hit peak debt. So they are just grateful to have a job where their wage isn't really increasing than no job at all. Some are probably trying to pay their debts down. But the question becomes, when are most people going to have that light bulb moment when they realize "OMG, my salary is not going up! It may never go up again from here. At this rate, I am never going to pay off my debts. Meanwhile, my health care premium continues to go up. I can also see that the price of things like houses, cars, food, utilities, internet, cell phone, entertainment like movie tickets, vacations, etc. are drifting higher every year. By the time I am old, I will have no retirement saved up at all."

Eventually, inflation of everyday things will accelerate while wages continue to remain flat or perhaps even decrease. Inflation is like an insidious disease, and when it begins to run away, it quickly eats away at all your saved hard work. The analogy of the frog in the boiling pot comes to mind... you don't notice until it is too late (you're dead).

Hit the nail on the head. I haven't seen a raise in my 'job' in 9 years, not to mention they cut my hours just enough so that I could no longer get health insurance. Fortunately I have other income and in fact I'm on the verge of ditching that job forever in favor a crypto-based venture. But most people are years away from seeing or even understanding what is happening to them. They're still looking to politicians to fix things.