Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

meh, I don't even consider $100 swing tradable, my buy and sell positions are $800 apart

Maybe I am trading too much... hahahaha.. mine are currently $100 apart, and they will go to $200 by $5400 and then maybe I gotta work my way up to $800?.. maybe I can be at $800 when we are around $12k-ish?  then you will be at $3k increments, right?

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[JayJuanGee]

Not from me. I have been bullish on BTC until 2017. Now I think the bullish trend is about to end.

It is quite likely that you are premature in your supposed assessment about the end of the bull market...

You could be correct by guessing, but the odds are that you are premature in your assessment about the end of the bull market.

Don't be ridiculous.  No one is saying that the market is going go up forever, even though we are currently in an upwards trajectory and currently in a bull market.  Still way too fucking early to be saying that the bull market has come to an end, even though it could come to an end at any time...

They do. People are fantasizing here, on the /bitcoin subreddit and even in news publications about 1,000,000$ /BTC prices.

How is that not a silly exageration?

People say all kinds of shit.. and sounds like you are being selective in your attempt to spin what people are saying... and maybe even misreading them in your selective little spin.

There is such a thing as cut and paste, and there is also such a thing as explanation..  Apparently you are too good to attempt either one.

I really hate to explain myself multiple times, and I really dont care what you believe. I have made my case, now we wait and see what happens.

You have made no case.  You merely asserted some conclusions, and you ascribed a certain level of high certainty to your conclusions and you are likely both premature and ascribing too much certainty to your conclusions without backing them up with anything - either facts or logic.

[Searing]

They do. People are fantasizing here, on the /bitcoin subreddit and even in news publications about 1,000,000$ /BTC prices.
How is that not a silly exageration?

Now imagine Bitcoin is the new global currency. How many USD are there in paper + "virtual"? 5 trillion? Maybe even more?

We all know that Bitcoin supply is limited to 21 million. Now the $1m/BTC forecast doesn't seem so crazy anymore?  

You are not taking in the 300 to 400 forks (like bitcoin cash) that would come into play (evil hairless primates that we are all..you can bet on it) at those sky high prices

what a cluster and wow what FUD if Bitcoin went to 10k by the 1st of the year...bankers running in the street tearing hair out ..would be a hoot....

Meanwhile...btc seems to want to go sideways and slink for a bit..price wise that is.....(people being mean to btc now .....sad)...

(bicoin, you mesmerizing wench...playing hard to get are you?)....

[FractalUniverse]

So way back in 2013, I devised a little unscientific theory as a way to measure the growth of Bitcoin and thus it's supported price floor.

I didn't have an accurate way to measure the exact number of participants and accounts across the world, so I just used Coinbase as a reference.

I surmised that for each 5X multiple in number of accounts, the price would be supported at around a 10X from the last price floor.

In 2015, Coinbase had around 2M accounts, and the price floor was found ~$250/btc.

Now they have approximately 10M accounts, and the price floor probably sits around $2500/btc (a rough guess).

So to extrapolate, in order to reach a support of $25k/btc, Coinbase would need to hit around 50M accounts.

Can we do it in the next 2-3 years?  I think it's possible. In 4-5 years I think it's a lock.

not bad for having some clue, but i think you should make some adjustments for diminishing supply as well

[gembitz]

They do. People are fantasizing here, on the /bitcoin subreddit and even in news publications about 1,000,000$ /BTC prices.
How is that not a silly exageration?

Now imagine Bitcoin is the new global currency. How many USD are there in paper + "virtual"? 5 trillion? Maybe even more?

We all know that Bitcoin supply is limited to 21 million. Now the $1m/BTC forecast doesn't seem so crazy anymore?  

You are not taking in the 300 to 400 forks (like bitcoin cash) that would come into play (evil hairless primates that we are all..you can bet on it) at those sky high prices

what a cluster and wow what FUD if Bitcoin went to 10k by the 1st of the year...bankers running in the street tearing hair out ..would be a hoot....

Meanwhile...btc seems to want to go sideways and slink for a bit..price wise that is.....(people being mean to btc now .....sad)...

(bicoin, you mesmerizing wench...playing hard to get are you?)....

there is no fork... there can only be one bitcoin brah :-D~monero im finally starting to see hella radarz tho+ethics of the original bitcoiners?..hmmm

[Ibian]

A retard I'm dealing with just sent me a transfer with a fee of 5 sat/byte. With an unconfirmed parent. Fuck.

[Meuh6879]

https://bitcoincore.org/en/releases/0.14.0/

Minimum Fee Rate Policies

Since the changes in 0.12 to automatically limit the size of the mempool and improve the performance of block creation in mining code it has not been important for relay nodes or miners to set -minrelaytxfee.

With this release the following concepts that were tied to this option have been separated out:

- incremental relay fee used for calculating BIP 125 replacement and mempool limiting. (1000 satoshis/kB)
- calculation of threshold for a dust output. (effectively 3 * 1000 satoshis/kB)
- minimum fee rate of a package of transactions to be included in a block created by the mining code.

If miners wish to set this minimum they can use the new -blockmintxfee option. (defaults to 1000 satoshis/kB)

[Torque]

So way back in 2013, I devised a little unscientific theory as a way to measure the growth of Bitcoin and thus it's supported price floor.

I didn't have an accurate way to measure the exact number of participants and accounts across the world, so I just used Coinbase as a reference.

I surmised that for each 5X multiple in number of accounts, the price would be supported at around a 10X from the last price floor.

In 2015, Coinbase had around 2M accounts, and the price floor was found ~$250/btc.

Now they have approximately 10M accounts, and the price floor probably sits around $2500/btc (a rough guess).

So to extrapolate, in order to reach a support of $25k/btc, Coinbase would need to hit around 50M accounts.

Can we do it in the next 2-3 years?  I think it's possible. In 4-5 years I think it's a lock.

not bad for having some clue, but i think you should make some adjustments for diminishing supply as well

Well, my unscientific back-of-the-napkin model does kind of take havings roughly every 4 years into account. It sort of assumes that we have a halving event 6-12 months before a new major run up. Otherwise, I think it would take roughly 10X more accounts for a 10X increase in price floor.

Even with an exponential growth model, it seems that there is a throttle bottleneck to how fast Bitcoin popularity and usage will ramp. I think it has a lot to do with the fact that participating in the Bitcoin ecosystem is neither free (must pay-to-play) nor currently open to everyone (e.g., in order to get access to btc through main brokerage channels you must be 18+ years old, you must have a bank account, you must supply proper identification, etc., etc.). As well as the skeptical, tentative nature of an emerging new asset class, so much media press negativity, draconian regulations, etc.

[conspirosphere.tk]

it's getting boring. We need an intervention by... Dildoman!

[fabiorem]

Bankster shills are funny.

We dont need hyperinflation for bitcoin to reach 1m each.

We only need market capitalization.

And as long as there are derivatives, capitalization can go on to infinity, with a minimal inflation.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Alts are a sea of green. This is no bear market.

[Meuh6879]

Prediction.

[bones261]

But I don't even care if you believe in me or not. I have put out my opinions, everyone does what he wants with them. I don't care if you lose or win money at this point. I know I will make money if the market goes down.

You really think that you can outmaneuver DCG and other whales? I certainly hope that you don't plan on margin shorting this shit. Rest assured, the whales will quietly close their shorts before you and then squeeze you out of your short to buy their expensive coins at the top of the next sucker's rally. Good luck trying to figure out this volatile and illiquid market, that can be manipulated at the whim of whales. These "whales" don't even need to have a billion USD in fiat/BTC. A few 10s of millions of USD worth should do the trick, if that.  

It would be easy.

A few days ago, lots of the twitter peeps that I follow were encouraging people to go on over to BitMEX and short the crap out of BTC. Many people ended up getting rekt with dead cat bounces. Good luck to you. I hope that your "system" is a real harpoon whale killer. Needless to say, many of those same twitter peeps now have the wind knocked out of their sails.  Reminds me of Moby Dick. The whale wins in the end.

[fluidjax]

re: $800 rise a few days back, former financial services regulator Bart Chilton says

There’s no rational reason for such moves other than some are efforting (successfully, to date) to buoy prices and calm otherwise edgy and excitable bitcoin investors.

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-volatility-due-regulatory-blind-spot-claims-fmr-cftc-official/

If the manipulation is true, and its not a natural bounce, it means shorting or expecting cheaper coins anytime soon may not be a good strategy, expect in the unlikely event we get another catastrophic news event and the manipulators refuse to double down.

[gembitz]

re: $800 rise a few days back, former financial services regulator Bart Chilton says

There’s no rational reason for such moves other than some are efforting (successfully, to date) to buoy prices and calm otherwise edgy and excitable bitcoin investors.

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-volatility-due-regulatory-blind-spot-claims-fmr-cftc-official/

If the manipulation is true, and its not a natural bounce, it means shorting or expecting cheaper coins anytime soon may not be a good strategy, expect in the unlikely event we get another catastrophic news event and the manipulators refuse to double down.

what he doesn't get is that bitcoin enhances transparency enabling investors to see their coins(shares) actually move !!  ~fool missed the dip?

[centralbanksequalsbombs]

Just have to say, I really enjoy seeing posts from JayJuanGee and also Torque - thank you both for continuing to post. Now, with that out of the way:

What say any of you to the following?

Efforts by any country's central bank or government to regulate bitcoin (ie make illegal or legalizing) will accelerate that country's demise of fiat value. These costs of such attempts and many other costs are absorbed by monetary inflation - making fiat even more worthless over time. Fiat system has been broken for decades. Bitcoin however had reached escape velocity globally 4-years ago in 2013 thus will continue to rise & be adopted as it is the only escape from financial slavery and an opt-out of war-making, slave-labor producing central bank regimes.

Fiat around the world is heavily infested and broken from the burdens of:
-regulatory burden on fiat banks & system (incredibly costly)
-insurance fraud
-unemployment & other welfare costs
-inflating fiat to keep stock market rising and to keep house-prices from collapsing
-frivolous legal costs (lawsuits bogging the system down)
-financing conflicts, bombs, and "aid"
-keeping monopolies with internet access centralized and search engine crawlers centralized
-money laundering
-false claims (outside of insurance)
-chargebacks
-state-sponsored corruption and unofficial corruption (governments and gangs, banks and conartists)
-retirement obligations (debasement in value to keep up with payments from government or other retirement-obligations)
-fake credit (goods being transacted with credit-loss, replaced by inflation of monetary base rather than bringing perpetrators & source to justice)

Bitcoin, systemically, is free from these burdens.

[Ludwig Von]

Just have to say, I really enjoy seeing posts from JayJuanGee and also Torque - thank you both for continuing to post. Now, with that out of the way:

What say any of you to the following?

Efforts by any country's central bank or government to regulate bitcoin (ie make illegal or legalizing) will accelerate that country's demise of fiat value. These costs of such attempts and many other costs are absorbed by monetary inflation - making fiat even more worthless over time. Fiat system has been broken for decades. Bitcoin however had reached escape velocity globally 4-years ago in 2013 thus will continue to rise & be adopted as it is the only escape from financial slavery and an opt-out of war-making, slave-labor producing central bank regimes.

Fiat around the world is heavily infested and broken from the burdens of:
-regulatory burden on fiat banks & system (incredibly costly)
-insurance fraud
-unemployment & other welfare costs
-inflating fiat to keep stock market rising and to keep house-prices from collapsing
-frivolous legal costs (lawsuits bogging the system down)
-financing conflicts, bombs, and "aid"
-keeping monopolies with internet access centralized and search engine crawlers centralized
-money laundering
-false claims (outside of insurance)
-chargebacks
-state-sponsored corruption and unofficial corruption (governments and gangs, banks and conartists)
-retirement obligations (debasement in value to keep up with payments from government or other retirement-obligations)
-fake credit (goods being transacted with credit-loss, replaced by inflation of monetary base rather than bringing perpetrators & source to justice)

Bitcoin, systemically, is free from these burdens.

This is what happens when corruption goes awkward and it doesn 't matter what ideology, has nothing to do with it... . So just wait and see for the first of the "Other" systems country 's going all the way... .
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-24/insiders-view-bitcoinization-venezuela

[Wekkel]

Bitcoin, systemically, is free from these burdens.[/size]

To rhyme with this article, Bitcoin:

• is not held as a reserve yet (we are slowly making steps in this direction, for instance with solutions like TenX whereby people hold in crypto but can spend in fiat)
• is not used to take out loans (the reason is simple: much to risky for a debtor to take a debt denominated in Bitcoin, as the price may rise astronomically

The price of Bitcoin should be much higher and the rate much more stable before both these elements become more prevalent. Bitcoin is taking baby steps in that direction on its journey to a grown-up currency.

And debt denominated in Bitcoin will probably never be very popular, because monetary inflation will - in the end - be nearly absent.

[triads]

Or then again, maybe the bounce was just a perfect
touch of the .786 retracement level at $3,000...

[jojo69]

I would still like to see a real test of the medium term log support line in this short term bear before I am happy to call it over.  The low spike on the 14th was ~$270 shy of a real test.  Of course, that line is rising all the time, I currently put it around $2870, crossing our current downtrend on or about Oct 11.