At what point would we leave "return to normal" behind?
Pretty sure it's the Despair part that happens next. :/
hmmmmm....
Can you tell me where you think the price was at "take off" during "awareness stage" and then tell me
exactly who those institutional buyers were at that time... as per the chart?
V curious.
Accordingly we still don't have
significant "institutional money" so would this not put us somewhere far further back on the chart?
Serious question... what significant institutional investors money was getting in at say $200? because as far as I remember - institutional money was about as interested in BTC as dogshit- until very recently -and even recently they have surely hardly even dipped their toe? or can you point to where institutional investors came in? and who do you suppose those institutional investors are ?
Curious as to your logic.
Or do you just mean we are about to reach a despair phase in a lesser cycle?
(ps also I hear an estimate that there are 300,000 people that hold more than a whole Bitcoin-are you saying that the "Public" have been buying already? again I don't see it yet- do you suppose it could be that we are much further back on the chart - I ask again?)
(pps- could it be that we are still taxiing on runway - prior to take off?)
(or could it be that one size fits all generic charts - just are not accurate models?)
To be honest I was just employing a little black humor. I recently posted to another speculation thread some of the things I think are different about "this time around".
Differences from 2014...
1. The crypto market has matured to the point that we are seeing serious coverage in the financial media
2. We no longer have a single point of failure (darkmarkets/gox)
3. The alt market is a serious part of the cryptosphere. This is good and bad because:
a. Legitimate projects have sprung up to either blossom into their own right or at least provide a testbed for BTC (monero, litecoin)
b. Speculative projects have come which have an effect of being a mixed blessing in the crypto space (ETH)
c. ICOs.
And all the scammy pyramid schemes that are reminding us of the dotcom bubble but a sleazy version
4. Tech has advanced with hardware wallets, payment gateways, etc.
5. BTC is maturing as it collectively decides how to handle it's limitations.
6. We are on the threshold of 2nd layer functionality.
So my first question is... can we really expect another 2-3 year bear? It just seems so unlikely considering the momentum we now see...
My second question had to do with XMR so I'll spare us here.
You are using a lot of descriptions of maturity or budding maturity or suggesting that the bitcoin space is becoming more developed.
I agree that the bitcoin space is becoming more developed, but it is a whole hell-of-a long way from being anywhere close to maturing.
One of the only mature things about bitcoin is that it had started with a very strong foundation, and the bitcoin developers have not been able to be bought out.. which caused bitcoin to be very fucking difficult to change, and furthermore, somehow the whole ecosystem was able to come to consensus (by hook or by crook) about seg wit.. HOLY FUCKING SHIT... that is very bullish for bitcoin in spite of the various ongoing attacks and sabotage attempts, including the recent forking phenomenon, which is just another so far unsuccessful method to attempt to dilute the power of bitcoin and/or to attempt to siphon off some of its community, whether that is developer talent or consumers - and in the end, it seems that the vast majority of the folks behind bitcoin have seen through the ruse.
Regarding your points about alts coming into the space, there is the additional phenomenon of just a lot of fucking money coming into the crypto space, which one way or another, a considerable percentage of that is likely going to end up flowing into bitcoin, whether directly or indirectly... and even if a certain considerable sum of money does not end up flow into bitcoin, such in flowing money is likely not going to be too bearish regarding bitcoin, since bitcoin continues to possess the strongest fundamentals that is likely going to be recognized in one way or another - even if there are 10 year long battles between various alts attempting to siphon off some of the bitcoin limelight.
Regarding an upcoming 2-3 year bear market, that could happen at any time, but it seems fairly unlikely in the short term given the total context of what is going on in bitcoin and going on in crypto, overall. Sure things can change a whim, and viola, bear market.... however, it is not healthy to bet against the more likely scenario, which is that a bear market remains a bit further into the distance... and usually we would not recognize for sure that we have entered into a bear market until the signs are quite clear about either a quick downtrend or one that plays out over a longer period... so for now, we remain clearly in a bitcoin bull market... despite the playing out of our 40% correction in the past couple of weeks.. and our currently, more than 50% rebound from the extremes of such correction.
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