Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ParabellumLite]

Crucial support has been broken around 3800 USD. The 'back to normal' phase is drawing to an end.
The large move down is about to begin, the one that will confirm the bear market in the coming days and weeks.

We will go down slowly to $1500.

This bear market will last for five months.

Beartrolls hoping to shake some more BTC from weak hands?  

I wish it was that easy of an explanation .  Also, I left BTC years ago already.

No, I have been fascinated with Bitcoin for years, and consider the attitude on this forum - especially the permabullism and the constant and ever encompassing rage against criticism - as an interesting social experiment. I have little doubt people will read  the history of these boards in years to come, to see how group think can lead to catastrophic results.

Especially the tribalism here (strong hands vs weak hands, bulls vs bears) is so ridiculously narrow minded that it actually gets intriguing at some point.

Out of interest before you were interested in Bitcoin and Bitcoin trading, have you had much prior exposure to trading in any other markets? or visited any other trading/investment forums? PMs? Forex? etc

None

I don’t have time to try to convince you, sorry

Come on, that's rather low of you. I fairly answered your question: I could've bluffed my way through it, ignored it, or done something else, but opted to not do so.
At least have the courtesy to respond back.

Also, do you have a background in any of the things you named?

[empowering]

Yes

[ParabellumLite]

Yes

Mind sharing your criticism then?
Apparantly you want to claim some kind of authority here, so why not share your knowledge? I am not interested in a long drawn out argument here anyways: people are too entrenched in their positions here anyways which will result in it being a waste of time regardless.

[Torque]

You are a believer Torque, nothing more. The simple fact that you tend to suggest you are something else than that, doesn't change it. You have put your faith  in this thing, and that's fine by me.

Of course I'm a believer. That's why I'm here.

And with no bitcoin (and thus no skin in the game), and a firm belief that Bitcoin has no viable future, you are a non-believer.

So would you mind explaining to everyone why you are here again? I'm starting to smell troll.

[JimboToronto]

Amazing, simply amazing.

People who claim to have no btc and are huge skeptics of Bitcoin's long term success. But somehow still manage to find time in their busy daily schedule to pontificate their negativity on the Bitcoin forum!

Thank god for these people. Whatever would we do without their insight and wisdom?

Very well put . Butt hurt comes to mind

Indeed, but don't discount the possibility that there could be conflicting vested interests.

To some, Bitcoin's success merely represents a missed opportunity. To others it represents an ongoing threat.

[SERVERIA]

But even without that, I think Bitcoin has entered a bear market already - with the bubble being ready to pop right now.

How about there's no bubble? It's just the next global currency, as simple as that. 

[ParabellumLite]

You are a believer Torque, nothing more. The simple fact that you tend to suggest you are something else than that, doesn't change it. You have put your faith  in this thing, and that's fine by me.

And with no bitcoin (and thus no skin in the game), and firm belief that Bitcoin has no viable future, you are a non-believer.

So would you mind explaining to everyone why you are here again? I'm starting to smell troll.

I call you a believer, because you seem to show no doubt, at all, including not acknowledging (at least, I never caught you at doing so!) the possibility that Bitcoin might fail in the long run. That is what makes you a believer, not the fact that you invested in Bitcoin in the past and present. Maybe cultist is in place as well, no matter how loaded that piece of terminology is.

About the second part: this is another example of what is wrong with this board. Throw around some criticism about Bitcoin, and immediatly be labeled as a 'troll', or at least be confronted with the suspicion you are one.  It fits in the pattern of this board, longtime members in particular, not being able to deal with criticism. At this point, I am still surprised you haven't accused me of spreading FUD (another popular smear tactic here!).  It has always been this way here in my memory, which is one of the main reasons for the existence of a herd mind here.

That is the main reason why I called this place an interesting social experiment: people here have closed their minds for truly open discussion and like crabs they keep each other in the bucket. If Bitcoin were to fail in the mid to long term, I can see those people still claiming that everything is fine around 500 USD (mind you: I am not claiming Bitcoin will go there) and that Bitcoin will appreciate again. After all, it did so in the past as well, right?

[Last of the V8s]

[yermom]

None: I did pick up some things in the meanwhile. I did some research on trading and everything associated with it, got some books on the shelf here, but in the end it is pseudo-science at best in my view.  Sometimes charts might give an important clue, which I think is the case now, but in the long run there is no point in trusting on TA and the like.

So, there's no point in trusting TA, EXCEPT in this particular case?

Why don't you try it again with the next moniker, instead of talking bs

[Wekkel]

As long as there is nothing around that clearly trumps Bitcoin, I do not foresee it wither away, whether going to $2,500 or $500 short term. Transferring 'value' over the Internet is simply to powerful to go away soon. This will not be uninvented and left for death.

[ParabellumLite]

None: I did pick up some things in the meanwhile. I did some research on trading and everything associated with it, got some books on the shelf here, but in the end it is pseudo-science at best in my view.  Sometimes charts might give an important clue, which I think is the case now, but in the long run there is no point in trusting on TA and the like.

So, there's no point in trusting TA, EXCEPT in this particular case?

What part of 'in the long run' did you not understand? Or the part about 'might', that precedes 'give an important clue'.
At least try to properly quote someone next time.

As long as there is nothing around that clearly trumps Bitcoin, I do not foresee it wither away, whether going to $2,500 or $500 short term. Transferring 'value' over the Internet is simply to powerful to go away soon. This will not be uninvented and left for death.

Of course not: the internet of value will highly likely become a real thing, we agree on that. There is however no certainty that Bitcoin will be leading the spearhead or even be playing a role of importance in the future. None, at all. And by saying that, I also include the possibility of governments cracking down on any cryptocurrency that makes money laundering, financing of illegal activitities, etc. easier. The regulatory aspect is just systematically overlooked by the crowd here.

Also, there's a difference between the broader notion of an internet of value and Bitcoin itself. Both are not the same.

[Karartma1]

i just put the last 2 names on this guess list ( normal over time but now it stays like how it is )   

AGAIN GL

Torque had quoted me. You put him on my place.

mistake fixed  

You deserved a thread on your own
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2196999.0

[Last of the V8s]

https://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2017/09/21/the-future-will-be-decentralized/
Catalonia--bitcoin
https://www.blackhat.com/eu-17/briefings/schedule/#how-to-hack-a-turned-off-computer-or-running-unsigned-code-in-intel-management-engine-8668
goodbye Intel?
https://ledgerx.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LedgerX-40.2a-Certification-DABS-Final.pdf sorry for pdf
moon soon stuff
http://www.ofnumbers.com/2017/09/21/eight-things-cryptocurrency-enthusiasts-probably-wont-tell-you/
newsflash Tim Swanson still a twat.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-15/before-you-spend-2-billion-on-your-own-submarine-read-this
new boat

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

As high as the price is and knowing there is likely going to be a correction, when my friends ask me if they should buy bitcoins I just say...

I just say I have no idea what they're talking about. It's better this way.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Electric coins, you say? Sounds charming.

[Arriemoller]

Are you liking the current bear market, gentlemen?

We will go down slowly to $1500.

This bear market will last for five months.

You're sort of like Nostradamus, aren't you?

THIS IS THE LAST UPDATE OF THE LIST

Ok, you win. Put me on 7th of January, 2018.

I think it will be sidelined until them, going up and down in the 4000's.

Thank you torque.

[UnDerDoG81]

As long as there is nothing around that clearly trumps Bitcoin, I do not foresee it wither away, whether going to $2,500 or $500 short term. Transferring 'value' over the Internet is simply to powerful to go away soon. This will not be uninvented and left for death.

Sure, Ill even expect single digits short term...

[rjclarke2000]

So what's with this little bleed out then?

[yonton]

Sold at 4k, saw this coming. Im getting ready for a bounce off 3500! Who's in with me?

[xhomerx10]

From what I have seen, it seems as though the skyward shots are directly preceded by two or more weekly red candles.  I think it's time to strap in again. HODLn'!

edit: sorry...cant attach an image since I'm on an old tablet with bad memory (both of ours)

Well you are NOT fucking going to get two or more preceding weekly red candles, because currently, under present facts, we only have one preceding red weekly candle and we are in the middle of a second weekly candle that happens to currently be red (and price needs to go above $4250 for this week's currently red candle to transform into green - and we are only about half way into this week's candle)...


Your point about returning up on a kind of rocket (from here), may or may not happen...  I would not be surprised either way, at this point.  It seems a bit unclear at this point whether the bears are exhausted and whether enough FUD has been effectively disseminated in order to cause regular folks to panic dump, after already going through an approximately 25% correction...  as we stand, currently.

 You speak as if I WANT 2 weekly red candles and I don't really care so much for the red as I prefer the green.  Also, what if my  chart is set up such that a week started on August 28th?  I am seeing red... More specifically, 2 red weekly candles and if those lead to a rocketing skyward if only by coincidence, I will still celebrate.
 

You don't select your own week.. we tend to use standards.. .such as bitstamp and bitcoinwisdom...   If you are using some other standard, then you should point that out in order that others understand what you are saying.  right?

 If I pull up bitcoinwisdom and select weekly, I see two red candles and one is getting bigger.  What do you see?!

O.k.. at least we are on the same page, then.

One red candle is for last week and the other red candle is for the week that we are currently in.

The weekly candle on that platform closes at midnight sunday Universal Time (UT).

By the way, it would not be accurate to talk about past weekly candles when referring to a current week, even if odds might be pretty decent that this week will turn out red.  Actually the odds of this week's candle remaining red are greater now, then they were when you had made the first post in this thread of discussion.

Thanks, I understand now.  I'm not a trader; I'm a hodler.  I know just enough about a technical chart to be dangerous.

 So, we got our (at least) 2 weekly red candles.   Moon in 3...2...1...

Yes. Agreed.  It appears that last week's candle closed at about $3670, so this week's candle will remain green, unless the price drops below $3670, and at this point, it seems pretty decent odds that this week's candle will be green, no?  We still have nearly 6 days, to find out (and we know that a lot can happen in bitcoinlandia in 6 days -    )

By the way, xhomerx10, I understand that you were talking about the color of the weekly candles, and I have had other threads of discussions with posters about trade volume too, and how that trade volume is depicted in weekly candles.

And, part of my point has frequently been that we will frequently come to faulty conclusions if we attempt to look at trade volume in short intervals, even on the daily.  However, the weekly candles (Stamp on bitcoinwisdom), show that trade volume has been  up for about 20 weeks in a row (sure there were a couple of less dramatic volume levels in there but overall UP).  So we see that there was a bit of an extra trade volume spike in the past couple of weeks, and usually trade volume will not necessarily just suddenly drop off - however, if we were to see a sudden drop off and prices were to trickle up this week, then that could be a bullish sign that bears are kind of exhausted of the battle - yet we know that some of the fuck-twad bears might be connected to a large amount of unlimited printable dollars, but still sooner or later, we could run out of folks willing to sell their coins. 

My thinking of the most logical conclusion is that this price battle and decent trade volume is going to continue in the near future - yet since I continue to have few clues about the intermediate price direction, I continue to prepare for either direction.... and I would not be surprised by a trickling up and then some kind of additional attempts to keep the price from going up, which may be tough for bears to battle off, even if they might be willing to lose some money to achieve their goals of keeping the price down.

 
 Thanks for the tips.  I'm not sure I'll ever have the confidence to do anything but hold though I have thought about playing around with the B_itCH coins I converted to Bitcoin to see if I can't turn that free Bitcoin into more