Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[wachtwoord]

shits getting deep.

Some are holding coins in order to spend them later when it's easier and safer and they can buy the normal things they would buy in their everyday life without a second thought, and without having to change back to fiat... yes that doesn't account for the transactions now, but as merchants accept more and infrastructure develops, if the speculation does drive the price up, I am assuming people will want to spend their (now more valuable) coins... obviously this comment also doesn't have much to do with the transaction volume affecting the price on the exchanges now, but on that subject I will also put forward the idea that it may not have much impact on the exchanges, as day to day purchases of coins to spend coins would be inefficient, I will assume that many people already have large stashes of coins they might spend.... finally also bear in mind that some of the philosophy of bitcoin (for some people, and anecdotally a majority) is not to spend spend spend to drive a consumerist economy. As mentioned before, just because the economy is not full of high volume transactions, doesn't mean it's not living and breathing.

Stream of consciousness waffle here so take it or leave it

Do you know what merchants do with payment solution that don't generate any sales?

If you get only a sale / month you wil drop it just because it's more of a hassle to work with it than the outcoming profit.

My fear is this might happen first.

later edit:
As usual people see my point of view as a bitcoin enemy and a non-believer.

For me , bitcoin is just an experiment , quite a funny one. I ended up using bitcoin by necessity and I have no god damn interest in price (besides making fun of bulls or bears).

For me its use is far more interesting.

Dude, stop the Keynesian "deflationary currency leads to hoarding and hoarding is bad"-crap. People buy things, because they both want and need things. You cannot delay a purchase forever (post-mortem anyone?) so the fact that the underlying currency gains in value isn't going to stop economic traffic in the least *.

*Although in the beginning people might need to get used to this, but it will be temporary. People will need to get used that merely holding currency isn't voluntarily paying more taxes and that saving can actually be a good thing as opposed to the credit hungry society the west is these days. I don't have any debt, but I can assure you I'm a vast minority ....

Keynesians are like cockroaches

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[niothor]

And of course if i show you one of this charts

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions
http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd

which are in total contradiction of the MASS adoption and people spending more and more bitcoins on different merchandise your gonna go in a denial phase.

Well , good luck with your bitcoin going from currency to commodity or .. collectibles.

I prefer another of the excellent blockchain.info charts. Excluding distortions such as Satoshi Dice, this one clearly illustrates the long term growth of the underlying bitcoin economy. The drawn support line indicates a growth rate of 10x every 14 months which approximately agrees with the corresponding long term support line for bitcoin prices.

check the gambling section , cause I saw a 100x growth in gambling websites. and most of them aren't in the top 100.

but shoudn't we have a huge growth , with 100 merchants/day and 13k restaurants accepting bitcoins in the last two months.

[SlipperySlope]

Using smoothed log data for the blockchain.info chart on USD transaction volume, it is harder to draw a support trendline.

My rough effort gives a an increase of 100x every 20 months. By including all transactions we include speculation on the exchanges as well as commercial transactions.

[niothor]

Dude, stop the Keynesian "deflationary currency leads to hoarding and hoarding is bad"-crap. People buy things, because they both want and need things. You cannot delay a purchase forever (post-mortem anyone?) so the fact that the underlying currency gains in value isn't going to stop economic traffic in the least *.

*Although in the beginning people might need to get used to this, but it will be temporary. People will need to get used that merely holding currency isn't voluntarily paying more taxes and that saving can actually be a good thing as opposed to the credit hungry society the west is these days. I don't have any debt, but I can assure you I'm a vast minority ....

Keynesians are like cockroaches

Let me explain why I feel hoarding is bad , and not because of this keynesian b*** which i don't give a crap about.

Worst case scenario
We have people accumulating bitcoins , people not using bitcoins , price skyrocketing because bitcoin is such a great idea, and there are fewer and fewer bitcoins (people are stashing them)  until , some moroon realizes

Why the f*** is a bitcoin so pricey when you can't do anything with it.

You know what happens next. And this won't be a bubble burst.It's going a total bearpocalypse.

[nmersulypnem]

Dude, stop the Keynesian "deflationary currency leads to hoarding and hoarding is bad"-crap. People buy things, because they both want and need things. You cannot delay a purchase forever (post-mortem anyone?) so the fact that the underlying currency gains in value isn't going to stop economic traffic in the least *.

*Although in the beginning people might need to get used to this, but it will be temporary. People will need to get used that merely holding currency isn't voluntarily paying more taxes and that saving can actually be a good thing as opposed to the credit hungry society the west is these days. I don't have any debt, but I can assure you I'm a vast minority ....

Keynesians are like cockroaches

People have this all backwards.  Its not merchants that we need - it's earners.  We need to PAY people in BTC.  That's how you drive an economy.  Give people something valuable, and merchants will flock follow the money.  If those with millions of BTC would start paying hoards of programmers in BTC only, they will need spend that income, and that will drive the economy.  

If you want to make a river, pour water on the mountain top.

[adamstgBit]

Dude, stop the Keynesian "deflationary currency leads to hoarding and hoarding is bad"-crap. People buy things, because they both want and need things. You cannot delay a purchase forever (post-mortem anyone?) so the fact that the underlying currency gains in value isn't going to stop economic traffic in the least *.

*Although in the beginning people might need to get used to this, but it will be temporary. People will need to get used that merely holding currency isn't voluntarily paying more taxes and that saving can actually be a good thing as opposed to the credit hungry society the west is these days. I don't have any debt, but I can assure you I'm a vast minority ....

Keynesians are like cockroaches

People have this all backwards.  Its not merchants that we need - it's earners.  We need to PAY people in BTC.  That's how you drive an economy.  Give people something valuable, and merchants will flock follow the money.  If those with millions of BTC would start paying hoards of programmers in BTC only, they will need spend that income, and that will drive the economy.  

If you want to make a river, pour water on the mountain top.

yup!

[barbs]

Dude, stop the Keynesian "deflationary currency leads to hoarding and hoarding is bad"-crap. People buy things, because they both want and need things. You cannot delay a purchase forever (post-mortem anyone?) so the fact that the underlying currency gains in value isn't going to stop economic traffic in the least *.

*Although in the beginning people might need to get used to this, but it will be temporary. People will need to get used that merely holding currency isn't voluntarily paying more taxes and that saving can actually be a good thing as opposed to the credit hungry society the west is these days. I don't have any debt, but I can assure you I'm a vast minority ....

Keynesians are like cockroaches

People have this all backwards.  Its not merchants that we need - it's earners.  We need to PAY people in BTC.  That's how you drive an economy.  Give people something valuable, and merchants will flock follow the money.  If those with millions of BTC would start paying hoards of programmers in BTC only, they will need spend that income, and that will drive the economy.  

If you want to make a river, pour water on the mountain top.

This is when you have faith in Silk Road's transaction and services. You gotta hand it to them they're still up and running.

I'm not trying to get into a back and forth about it but fact is but people love getting drugs in the mail, and with examples such as royal mail in the UK turning record profits thanks to amazon and ebay parcels flying through internet sales to customer's home.. the sheer volume of that.. so successfull it will be privatised, this is being experienced by many well run mail services and bitcoin is right at home for better of for worse to enable it..

So i hate to say but if you have faith in drug addiction keeping buyers coming .. not exactly the worst support for the economy.

You can also get fake IDs and range of other services. Underage kids always want to get fake IDs to buy booze. etc.

I dunno, for now the fact that is the currency of choice for these traders and has been despite the swings in price makes me somewhat confident in the long term success but indeed now is a bear market and I'm going to sleep full FIAT position doubtful I'm going to regret it..

[Miz4r]

Dude, stop the Keynesian "deflationary currency leads to hoarding and hoarding is bad"-crap. People buy things, because they both want and need things. You cannot delay a purchase forever (post-mortem anyone?) so the fact that the underlying currency gains in value isn't going to stop economic traffic in the least *.

*Although in the beginning people might need to get used to this, but it will be temporary. People will need to get used that merely holding currency isn't voluntarily paying more taxes and that saving can actually be a good thing as opposed to the credit hungry society the west is these days. I don't have any debt, but I can assure you I'm a vast minority ....

Keynesians are like cockroaches

Let me explain why I feel hoarding is bad , and not because of this keynesian b*** which i don't give a crap about.

Worst case scenario
We have people accumulating bitcoins , people not using bitcoins , price skyrocketing because bitcoin is such a great idea, and there are fewer and fewer bitcoins (people are stashing them)  until , some moroon realizes

Why the f*** is a bitcoin so pricey when you can't do anything with it.

You know what happens next. And this won't be a bubble burst.

I think you're just impatient and expect bitcoin to be a fully fledged currency right away. Bitcoin needs time to grow on many levels, it will take some more years before you can actually use them to buy everything you need. Until then this is what it is and the price is based mostly on speculation and will fluctuate wildly. Deal with it or come back in a few years if you can't stand to see it slowly mature.

[giszmo]

shits getting deep.

Some are holding coins in order to spend them later when it's easier and safer and they can buy the normal things they would buy in their everyday life without a second thought, and without having to change back to fiat... yes that doesn't account for the transactions now, but as merchants accept more and infrastructure develops, if the speculation does drive the price up, I am assuming people will want to spend their (now more valuable) coins... obviously this comment also doesn't have much to do with the transaction volume affecting the price on the exchanges now, but on that subject I will also put forward the idea that it may not have much impact on the exchanges, as day to day purchases of coins to spend coins would be inefficient, I will assume that many people already have large stashes of coins they might spend.... finally also bear in mind that some of the philosophy of bitcoin (for some people, and anecdotally a majority) is not to spend spend spend to drive a consumerist economy. As mentioned before, just because the economy is not full of high volume transactions, doesn't mean it's not living and breathing.

Stream of consciousness waffle here so take it or leave it

Do you know what merchants do with payment solution that don't generate any sales?

If you get only a sale / month you wil drop it just because it's more of a hassle to work with it than the outcoming profit.

My fear is this might happen first.

later edit:
As usual people see my point of view as a bitcoin enemy and a non-believer.

For me , bitcoin is just an experiment , quite a funny one. I ended up using bitcoin by necessity and I have no god damn interest in price (besides making fun of bulls or bears).

For me its use is far more interesting.

Dude, stop the Keynesian "deflationary currency leads to hoarding and hoarding is bad"-crap. People buy things, because they both want and need things. You cannot delay a purchase forever (post-mortem anyone?) so the fact that the underlying currency gains in value isn't going to stop economic traffic in the least *.

*Although in the beginning people might need to get used to this, but it will be temporary. People will need to get used that merely holding currency isn't voluntarily paying more taxes and that saving can actually be a good thing as opposed to the credit hungry society the west is these days. I don't have any debt, but I can assure you I'm a vast minority ....

Keynesians are like cockroaches

Amen. Why do we have planned obsolescence in about 110% of all stuff you can buy? It's the same spirit. If people only would care about tomorrow a bit more, people would realize how "hoarding" is not bad. If your currency appreciates in value, you will not buy stuff that looses all its value by tonight.

[niothor]

People have this all backwards.  Its not merchants that we need - it's earners.  We need to PAY people in BTC.  That's how you drive an economy.  Give people something valuable, and merchants will flock follow the money.  If those with millions of BTC would start paying hoards of programmers in BTC only, they will need spend that income, and that will drive the economy.  

If you want to make a river, pour water on the mountain top.

+1

But count me out!
The workers in my fathers company are making a fuss that they are charged .25 usd when they withdraw money from their debit card.
If i'm going to tell them about how to convert bitcoins into cash and food/goods and what fees are right now for this I'm onna get killed for sure.

[Frozenlock]

I see important walls starting at $106 and below.

*wild subject change*

[Le Happy Merchant]

We need to PAY people in BTC.  

If you want to make a river, pour water on the mountain top.

I asked to be paid in Bitcoin, they said no. So I'll just do it myself.

[niothor]

I see important walls starting at $106 and below.

*wild subject change*

clarkmoody down here , so, how important?

[SlipperySlope]

People have this all backwards.  Its not merchants that we need - it's earners.  We need to PAY people in BTC.  That's how you drive an economy.  Give people something valuable, and merchants will flock follow the money.  If those with millions of BTC would start paying hoards of programmers in BTC only, they will need spend that income, and that will drive the economy.  

If you want to make a river, pour water on the mountain top.

I generally believe the bitcoin economy will unfold as Rick Falkvinge outlined back in 2011 ...

1. Unlawful trade - e.g. Silk road, criminal currency transfers.
2. International trade - wire transfers are too expensive, and credit cards are not accepted uniformly worldwide.
3. Merchant trade, e.g. credit card fees and fraud are too expensive.
4. Investment, e.g. like precious metals but no storage costs and supply is strictly limited.

It is shortsighted in my opinion, to focus on just one of these.

Risto Pietilä, who as a precious metals dealer frequented this forum a month ago, could make a great case for the last category. By the way, Risto I miss your commentary and wish you well.

[420]

I pay people in bitcoin

[yefi]

Never , Satoshi got killed by a bear !

Satoshi would outsmart the bear. He would play dead.

[SlipperySlope]

clarkmoody down here , so, how important?

Works for me.

[niothor]

clarkmoody down here , so, how important?

Works for me.

that's why I said "here" . I know my isp is playing tricks , making half of websites in the world unavailable.
Third time this week this is happening.

[ChartBuddy]

[favelle75]

Bought all back in at $112......wondering if I made a mistake.  Obviously missed the bottom, but was that just a false bottom?