Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[realr0ach]

After launch of bitcoin at CBOE futures

Then bitcoin becomes a casino gulag where the house always wins and there is no reason to go near it instead of metals.  In metals they can only naked short it to cost of production.  In bitcoin, cost of production is fully floating and recursive based on it's own demand via hashrate, so they can literally naked short it to 0 instead of some type of cost of production floor because no such thing even exists in bitcoin.  Shorting metals below cost of production causes miners to stop bringing gold and silver to market, so it's counterintuitive because it would just create scarcity, so they don't do it (or at least not for long periods of time).  Shorting bitcoin below cost of production forces miners to turn off, thus lowering the temporary cost of production floor even further while the supply from miners recirculating coins remains unchanged.  This is why naked shorting is FAR MORE detrimental to bitcoin than metals.

[savetherainforest]

After launch of bitcoin at CBOE futures

Then bitcoin becomes a casino gulag where the house always wins and there is no reason to go near it instead of metals.  In metals they can only naked short it to cost of production.  In bitcoin, cost of production is fully floating and recursive based on it's own demand via hashrate, so they can literally naked short it to 0 instead of some type of cost of production floor because no such thing even exists in bitcoin.  Shorting metals below cost of production causes miners to stop bringing gold and silver to market, so it's counterintuitive because it would just create scarcity, so they don't do it (or at least not for long periods of time).  Shorting bitcoin below cost of production forces miners to turn off, thus lowering the temporary cost of production floor even further while the supply from miners recirculating coins remains unchanged.  This is why naked shorting is FAR MORE detrimental to bitcoin than metals.

If "the house" consists of the "hodlers" and the money comes from the banks. I'm fine with that.

[gembitz]

 

BTCBTC astronomical price explained^

[realr0ach]

After launch of bitcoin at CBOE futures

Then bitcoin becomes a casino gulag where the house always wins and there is no reason to go near it instead of metals.  In metals they can only naked short it to cost of production.  In bitcoin, cost of production is fully floating and recursive based on it's own demand via hashrate, so they can literally naked short it to 0 instead of some type of cost of production floor because no such thing even exists in bitcoin.  Shorting metals below cost of production causes miners to stop bringing gold and silver to market, so it's counterintuitive because it would just create scarcity, so they don't do it (or at least not for long periods of time).  Shorting bitcoin below cost of production forces miners to turn off, thus lowering the temporary cost of production floor even further while the supply from miners recirculating coins remains unchanged.  This is why naked shorting is FAR MORE detrimental to bitcoin than metals.

If "the house" consists of the "hodlers" and the money comes from the banks. I'm fine with that.

No, "the house" is not the hodlers, because the transactions are settled in USD, so the house is the US govt, the fed, or something like the BIS/cult of usury jews if you go up the totem pole. 

[becoin]

After launch of bitcoin at CBOE futures

Then bitcoin becomes a casino gulag where the house always wins and there is no reason to go near it instead of metals.  In metals they can only naked short it to cost of production.  In bitcoin, cost of production is fully floating and recursive based on it's own demand via hashrate, so they can literally naked short it to 0 instead of some type of cost of production floor because no such thing even exists in bitcoin.  Shorting metals below cost of production causes miners to stop bringing gold and silver to market, so it's counterintuitive because it would just create scarcity, so they don't do it (or at least not for long periods of time).  Shorting bitcoin below cost of production forces miners to turn off, thus lowering the temporary cost of production floor even further while the supply from miners recirculating coins remains unchanged.  This is why naked shorting is FAR MORE detrimental to bitcoin than metals.

This is nonsense for a very simple reason. If there is gold price increase there will be increase in supply by opening more gold mines. if there is bitcoin price increase you can't increase supply by opening more bitcoin mines!

[PoolMinor]

This is nonsense for a very simple reason. If there is gold price increase there will be increase in supply by opening more gold mines. if there is bitcoin price increase you can't increase supply by opening more bitcoin mines!

Really?

How many blocks are normally produced each day?

[Heater]

CBOE futures launch in 24 hours.

Each contract is for a US$ cash payment equal to 1 Bitcoin at the Gemini price at the Settlement Time, which is 4 pm Central Time on the Settlement Date.  Minimum price tick is $10.  Contracts settle in January, February and March.

XBT/F8 January

XBT/G8 February

XBT/H8 March

Please place your price predictions for the opening price of each of the three futures contracts.  Note:   I am still trying to work out the Settlement Date in each month. If someone has that info I will edit this post.

The expiration dates are here:

http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

Symbol   Expiration   Last   Change   High   Low   Settlement   Volume
GXBT      16250.00   -572.59   16350.10   14500.00      
XBT/F8   01/17/2018   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0
XBT/G8   02/14/2018   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0
XBT/H8   03/14/2018   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0

I feel sorry for the poor sod trying to price these. If any of you are reading this - good luck!


This is the lol part:

XBT futures provides a way for you to buy and sell bitcoin futures in a highly regulated marketplace nearly 24 hours a day, five days per week. This gives you the flexibility to invest and divest at the optimal time for your specific trading strategy.

So flexible!

[Ludwig Von]

After launch of bitcoin at CBOE futures

Then bitcoin becomes a casino gulag where the house always wins and there is no reason to go near it instead of metals.  In metals they can only naked short it to cost of production.  In bitcoin, cost of production is fully floating and recursive based on it's own demand via hashrate, so they can literally naked short it to 0 instead of some type of cost of production floor because no such thing even exists in bitcoin.  Shorting metals below cost of production causes miners to stop bringing gold and silver to market, so it's counterintuitive because it would just create scarcity, so they don't do it (or at least not for long periods of time).  Shorting bitcoin below cost of production forces miners to turn off, thus lowering the temporary cost of production floor even further while the supply from miners recirculating coins remains unchanged.  This is why naked shorting is FAR MORE detrimental to bitcoin than metals.

This is nonsense for a very simple reason. If there is gold price increase there will be increase in supply by opening more gold mines. if there is bitcoin price increase you can't increase supply by opening more bitcoin mines!

The whole futures narative will be a turd and fizzle into the coke filled brains of Wallstreet in a few days. Nothing to see in Coinlandia.

[TERA2]

BitThumb looks just like Huobi...

[Heater]

After launch of bitcoin at CBOE futures

Then bitcoin becomes a casino gulag where the house always wins and there is no reason to go near it instead of metals.  In metals they can only naked short it to cost of production.  In bitcoin, cost of production is fully floating and recursive based on it's own demand via hashrate, so they can literally naked short it to 0 instead of some type of cost of production floor because no such thing even exists in bitcoin.  Shorting metals below cost of production causes miners to stop bringing gold and silver to market, so it's counterintuitive because it would just create scarcity, so they don't do it (or at least not for long periods of time).  Shorting bitcoin below cost of production forces miners to turn off, thus lowering the temporary cost of production floor even further while the supply from miners recirculating coins remains unchanged.  This is why naked shorting is FAR MORE detrimental to bitcoin than metals.

This is nonsense for a very simple reason. If there is gold price increase there will be increase in supply by opening more gold mines. if there is bitcoin price increase you can't increase supply by opening more bitcoin mines!

The whole futures narative will be a turd and fizzle into the coke filled brains of Wallstreet in a few days. Nothing to see in Coinlandia.

Agree. The only valid use case I can think of would be a whale protecting their position at the top of the market when they know they have a large fiat expense coming up (eg tax) and they don't want to cash out yet. The problem is they can't use BTC to underwrite the trade (it has to be Fiat) so it's useless even for simple hedging.

Tone's recent interview with Ugly Goat explains the whole scenario well:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXUEfZY4zRk

[600watt]

After launch of bitcoin at CBOE futures, I'm predicting many would sell it off and money from bitcoin will flow towards alt-coins. This might have never happened in the past, but I'm sure it'd happen this time, when bitcoin would crash a bit, wealthy and healthy alts like ETH/ETC will steal the spotlight.

Let's wait and watch the graphs though, things are getting very interesting.

lol.

[Torque]

To all those geniuses out there saying that the Futures market will be the end of Bitcoin.

If they really wanted to crash and end Bitcoin, then there wouldn't be a "future" to the Futures market that they have worked so hard and so diligently to create in the first place. Now would there?

Capisce?

Long term, it's going up. Guaranteed.

[HairyMaclairy]

This is nonsense for a very simple reason. If there is gold price increase there wr

Agree. The only valid use case I can think of would be a whale protecting their position at the top of the market when they know they have a large fiat expense coming up (eg tax) and they don't want to cash out yet. The problem is they can't use BTC to underwrite the trade (it has to be Fiat) so it's useless even for simple hedging.

Tone's recent interview with Ugly Goat explains the whole scenario well:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXUEfZY4zRk

CBOE rules allow the futures to be linked to trades of underlying positions held on Gemini, called an “Exchange of Contract for Underlying Position”.  So you can trade BTC on Gemini for BTC futures on CBOE.  And you can sell your future for real bitcoin.  


Thank

[Heater]

This is nonsense for a very simple reason. If there is gold price increase there wr

Agree. The only valid use case I can think of would be a whale protecting their position at the top of the market when they know they have a large fiat expense coming up (eg tax) and they don't want to cash out yet. The problem is they can't use BTC to underwrite the trade (it has to be Fiat) so it's useless even for simple hedging.

Tone's recent interview with Ugly Goat explains the whole scenario well:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXUEfZY4zRk

CBOE rules allow the futures to be linked to trades of underlying positions held on Gemini, called an “Exchange of Contract for Underlying Position”.  So you can trade BTC on Gemini for BTC futures on CBOE.  And you can sell your future for real bitcoin. 

Then it can be useful.

The CME one doesn't have that AFAIK.

[zoinky]

CBOE trades tomorrow?
CME Next week?

I guess it's time to bait trash talkers into shorting so heavily that they think they control things? Will be interesting to see where the hidden bull lies. I doubt 10k could be destroyed.

The dip here will be a memory to people who thought they could control bitcoin, the liquidation will be what gets to unimaginable numbers.

[HairyMaclairy]

Thank you for the expiration dates.  

No I don’t think the CME one allows direct back to backs. But I am sure all sorts of hedge funds will pop up offering back to backs.

Anyone who wanted to short has been able to do so for years on BFX. They get rekted all the time.

As for the dip, I spent the last of my budgeted fiat at $9200.  The price is going to have to come down a lot more for me to buy more. $13,000 isn’t low enough to lure me back. 

[Rosewater Foundation]

This is nonsense for a very simple reason. If there is gold price increase there wr

Agree. The only valid use case I can think of would be a whale protecting their position at the top of the market when they know they have a large fiat expense coming up (eg tax) and they don't want to cash out yet. The problem is they can't use BTC to underwrite the trade (it has to be Fiat) so it's useless even for simple hedging.

Tone's recent interview with Ugly Goat explains the whole scenario well:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXUEfZY4zRk

CBOE rules allow the futures to be linked to trades of underlying positions held on Gemini, called an “Exchange of Contract for Underlying Position”.  So you can trade BTC on Gemini for BTC futures on CBOE.  And you can sell your future for real bitcoin. 

Then it can be useful.

The CME one doesn't have that AFAIK.

This thread is useful. Thanks.
The collective intelligence of the WO is dangerous.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Useful infos: we're currently pumping backwards

[Globb0]

Threatening a bit of down again, what would be the correction that would make everyone happy?

Its not far off for me already. at somewhere between about 11-9

It dipped to 12.7 its trying.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Threatening a bit of down again, what would be the correction that would make everyone happy?

Its not far off for me already. at somewhere between about 11-9

It dipped to 12.5 its trying.

I'm fine with this. We can go up now. Thanks