Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[alexeft]

Proof?

https://www.ccn.com/bitmain-funded-mining-pool-viabtc-launches-bitcoin-ethereum-exchange/

Bitmain is the primary investor in VaiBTC. The Bitcoin.com pool is owned by Mr.Ver who is hand in hand with Bitmain's plans. It's not exactly Watergate levels of conspiracy.

Still, even if that is true, they don't want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. It's better for them to just admit that they haven't been so smart. At least admit it to themselves.

[1715093601]

1715093601

[gentlemand]

Still, even if that is true, they don't want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. It's better for them to just admit that they haven't been so smart. At least admit it to themselves.

They want to drive everyone to Bcash. It's not going to work but they'll give it a whirl. If that fails they still have a stranglehold over BTC. If it works then they own BCH lock stock and barrel.

[alexeft]

Talking about spam, let's not forget that all exchanges have been fighting with heavy traffic (new users etc). That is not spam. That is just hitting the limit.

[elg]

Guys... subject of this thread is "Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion"

[alexeft]

Still, even if that is true, they don't want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. It's better for them to just admit that they haven't been so smart. At least admit it to themselves.

They want to drive everyone to Bcash. It's not going to work but they'll give it a whirl. If that fails they still have a stranglehold over BTC. If it works then they own BCH lock stock and barrel.

If they have it and it works, they stand to lose a lot! Like really really a lot! Again, why kill the goose that lays the golden eggs?

[Raja_MBZ]

Alright, so it's clear that bitcoins future trading at CME will be rolling out in approximately 3 hours and 5 minutes from now. Things are going to get interesting, I don't know why but I'm sensing $22k-$25k within first couple of hours. CBOE is nothing like CME, CME has a much larger volume than CBOE. So we can go more wilder than before.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin_contract_specifications.html

[HanvanBitcoin]

Bought the dip  

[alexeft]

Guys... subject of this thread is "Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion"

Of course! And.........................we are getting pooper!  

[realr0ach]

They want to drive everyone to Bcash. It's not going to work but they'll give it a whirl. If that fails they still have a stranglehold over BTC. If it works then they own BCH lock stock and barrel.

The Chinese do not give a shit about anything besides pumping and dumping for profit.  Attempting to nullify the currently higher value chain and forcing people to buy the lower value chain while they front run the market and buy up the low value coins beforehand is about as good of a pump and dump as you can get.  (This is not an endorsement of either chain as both chains are completely centralized and valueless with no fundamentals)

[savetherainforest]

Bought the dip  

Respect!

[alexeft]

BTW, I can't wait to see the new altcoin inventor that will mine it till it stands on its feet and then just "move on to other things"! Come on people! Who has the balls?  

[realr0ach]

Anyone remember when UN troops on the streets of the US was called a conspiracy theory?  Here's the trial balloon for international bankers using foreign armies to prevent their regime in America from being overthrown when the economy blows up:

https://www.intellihub.com/chicago-commissioner-requests-u-n-troops-patrol-fight-violent-crime-genocide-on-the-streets/

Probably why they've been going balls to the wall trying to ban guns lately, because the US population has enough guns to easily defeat the foreign troops.

[infofront]

The crowd wins again. The $18,000-$20,000 price range was the #1 most picked choice in the poll.
Now being reset.

[Hawkix]

Alright, so it's clear that bitcoins future trading at CME will be rolling out in approximately 3 hours and 5 minutes from now. Things are going to get interesting, I don't know why but I'm sensing $22k-$25k within first couple of hours. CBOE is nothing like CME, CME has a much larger volume than CBOE. So we can go more wilder than before.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin_contract_specifications.html

I read that message as they say TODAY that trading will start TOMORROW.

[gentlemand]

Talking about spam, let's not forget that all exchanges have been fighting with heavy traffic (new users etc). That is not spam. That is just hitting the limit.

Yes. It's quite possible that this time around it's pure demand. It certainly wasn't in the past.

[RejectedBanana]

The average cost of electricity in the US is 12 cents per kWh which works out to $30 per transaction or 0.0015 BTC at $20k. This is the break-even transaction fee in terms of energy usage. Any less, you're getting a deal and should be happy to wait for confirmation, any more and hopefully your premium speeds things up.

Your calculations are way off. Here are exact figures, you can check them in multiple places. I'll put them in per/hour base:
- BTC networks consumes 113.000 US$ of electricity per hour, based on 0.12 US$/KWh price
- during that hour it generates 1.800.000 US$ worth of BTC, based on 19.500 US$/BTC price
- of that amount, 360.000 US$ are transaction fees and 1.440.000 US$ block rewards
- on that proportion, 22.600 US$ electricity is spent on transaction fees and, 90.400 US$ of electricity is spent on block rewards
- since there are on average 13.800 Transactions/hour, price of electricity spent for each transaction is 1.63 US$

This is the minimal price of transaction BTC network can not afford to go bellow, and it will not go down before the Lightning networks are introduced. Everything above that we are paying now is because saboteurs and spammers are polluting the blockchain in their failed attempt to prove BCash is better than BTC.

Your energy assumption is only 22.6 million kWh per day. That is only 1/4th estimated by this source, at nearly 100 million kWh:

https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption

I am curious, what is your source?

I agree, spamming is a problem and I don't know if anything clever can be done to abate in the near term.

The problem with your calculations is that it does not include the 12.5 BTC reward the miners get with each block. That alone rewards the miners about 90.00 USD per tx at the current price. At this point in the game, the tx fees are just extra profit padding. Furthermore, Litecoin is a competitor. What kind of enterprise recommends that you just use a competitor if you want it cheaper, faster and of the same quality? 

I don't know that Charlie would promote Litecoin as a direct competitor but rather occupying a different market niche. Besides, in every other industry, competition is what keeps entities honest and efficient, no? Once users realize they can save on time and fees on another crypto network, transaction demand and fees on the Bitcoin network should drop. But again, I don't know how to handle spamming transaction fee inflation. How do we keep transactions honest?

[d_eddie]

Why would a system that allows cheating be needed?

Sorry, I don't understand the question.

Unless you meant LN is a system that allow cheating. Well, with LN you can give a try at cheating, but only if you have a stake (a channel open) and you are ready to risk the whole stake should your cheat fail.

Yes that is what I meant. So LN is intended to allow small payments, at low cost, that do not overload the base of the network. The most important feature of the base is tht it is trustless, so uncheatable. This is a bit difficult for me.

This is the price to pay for instant transactions (no onchain confirmation), but I'd say LN's anti-cheating mechanism is near perfect. Anyone who spots a cheating transaction within 24 hours (I think - or was it 48?) of its timestamp can give the cheaters what they deserve and pocket a handsome reward. My bet is the network will be swarming with bounty hunters.

So the system that must allow us, average Joe 's to use BTC as money for everyday spending needs bounty hunters to avoid cheating?

Short reply: Yes - just as the system that currently allows us to use BTC for not-everyday spending needs full nodes and miners and lots of electrical power.

Elaborating more. LN might need bounty hunters just to make sure every cheating attempt makes the "cheated" part end in profit (as well as the bounty hunter). I think the way it will work is that you open a channel with Starbucks, or Amazon, or some other reputable entity who has no interest at all in being labeled as a provable fraud (the cheat requires settling the channel on the blockchain, where it will be there for all to see forever). I guess most people who run full nodes will start a Lightning hub on the side, if it is even marginally profitable. There willl probably be blacklists and feedback scores for Average Joes who want to invest in facilitating channel opening without being Starbucks.

Why not ask the FBI or any of the alphabet agencies, they will be glad to do so... . I do not believe we need this kind of system... .

You're answering yourself. We don't need alphabet agencies for that. That's why not.

Moreover, the hunter easily becomes the cheater in this kind of arrangements... .

Have you read some documentation on how LN works? I don't mean the full technical spec - that's a lot and it requires a highly degree of techno competence in crypto. There was a good, accurate but simple explanation that I can't locate right now. Maybe reading that could help you feel more at ease. Now if someone could be so kind to link a suitable web page...

EDIT - found a good source. Here it is.
https://coinjournal.net/a-simple-explanation-of-the-lightning-network/
Let's get back to the discussion when you have a more detailed understanding of how LN works.

[Raja_MBZ]

Alright, so it's clear that bitcoins future trading at CME will be rolling out in approximately 3 hours and 5 minutes from now. Things are going to get interesting, I don't know why but I'm sensing $22k-$25k within first couple of hours. CBOE is nothing like CME, CME has a much larger volume than CBOE. So we can go more wilder than before.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin_contract_specifications.html

I read that message as they say TODAY that trading will start TOMORROW.

Well I re-read that and seems like you're correct. Today they notified that tomorrow the trading will begin.

I think the next 28 hours can go in a big pump-mode, and then the market will calm down. I still think it can cross $22k to $25k within or right after this period.

[Ludwig Von]

Why would a system that allows cheating be needed?

Sorry, I don't understand the question.

Unless you meant LN is a system that allow cheating. Well, with LN you can give a try at cheating, but only if you have a stake (a channel open) and you are ready to risk the whole stake should your cheat fail.

Yes that is what I meant. So LN is intended to allow small payments, at low cost, that do not overload the base of the network. The most important feature of the base is tht it is trustless, so uncheatable. This is a bit difficult for me.

This is the price to pay for instant transactions (no onchain confirmation), but I'd say LN's anti-cheating mechanism is near perfect. Anyone who spots a cheating transaction within 24 hours (I think - or was it 48?) of its timestamp can give the cheaters what they deserve and pocket a handsome reward. My bet is the network will be swarming with bounty hunters.

So the system that must allow us, average Joe 's to use BTC as money for everyday spending needs bounty hunters to avoid cheating?

Short reply: Yes - just as the system that currently allows us to use BTC for not-everyday spending needs full nodes and miners and lots of electrical power.

Elaborating more. LN might need bounty hunters just to make sure every cheating attempt maked the "cheated" part end in profit (as well as the bounty hunter). I think the way it will work is that you open a channel with Starbucks, or Amazon, or some other reputable entity who has no interest at all in being labeled as a provable fraud (the cheat requires settling the channel on the blockchain, where it will be there for all to see forever). I guess most people who run full nodes will start a Lightning hub on the side, if it is even marginally profitable. There willl probably be blacklists and feedback scores for Average Joes who want to invest in facilitating channel opening without being Starbucks.

Why not ask the FBI or any of the alphabet agencies, they will be glad to do so... . I do not believe we need this kind of system... .

You're answering yourself. We don't need alphabet agencies for that. That's why not.

Moreover, the hunter easily becomes the cheater in this kind of arrangements... .

Have you read some documentation on how LN works? I don't mean the full technical spec - that's a lot and it requires a highly degree of techno competence in crypto. There was a good, accurate but simple explanation that I can't locate right now. Maybe reading that could help you feel more at ease. Now if anyone would be so kind to link a suitable web page...

Thanks for the extra info and I will be glad to read the laymans explanation.
I am always sceptical towards solutions that tend to be more complicated than the problem. And as far as it concerns broad adoption, that is the single most important aspect.

About the system, I meant we do not need a system that needs policing of any kind.

[Anabetsi]

Goes up like a rocket.   Cheesy