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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26451354 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
bones261
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December 23, 2017, 03:13:53 AM

It was no joke, I actually did the calculation:

Current Bitcoin price: $15.000
Reasonable Average Lambo Price: $300.000

So for 1 BTC to be worth $300.000 we would need a 20x

If you have a somewhat fragmented wallet you can end with a $100 fee right now for "premium delivery". Note: You are a Lambo purchaser, so you don't want to look cheap, you go for premium of course.

$100*20x=$2000

Well, I have seen good condition second hand Fiats for less. So, there you go, 1 Fiat fee for a 1 Lambo purchase.

P.S.: Some figures slightly rounded for easy of comprehension. Some additional factors that could worsen or alleviate network congestion not taken into consideration. No animals were harmed during the making of the calculations. This is not investment advice.

I do not know whether to laugh or cry. I also do not know what to expect at this point: whether to accept the situation and resign myself to thinking that bitcoin has turned into digital gold and money from large financial institutions, or to continue waiting for some "solution"; and I'm not just talking about LN, because if we continue like this, inevitably opening and closing a channel will cost $ 1000 in fees.

If I spend all of the BTC that I have in a channel, I don't need to worry about closing it. That would be the other guy's problem. No? LN is not for HODLs. It's for people wanting to either use it as a cheap and easy arb channel or because they want coffee. I definitely wouldn't HODL my BTC in a LN channel. Are you kidding?
realr0ach
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December 23, 2017, 03:17:41 AM

Listen, I know these are difficult times. But let's try to remain civil. Remember why we're here.
To crush souls and steal their money? Yeah, most of us seem to have forgotten.

To make sure (((Goldman Sachs))) is left holding the bag on completely valueless, imaginary assets like bitcoin and ethereum while the goyim sell retardedly overvalued craptocurrency to buy up the whole silver and gold market.

Do you really think the minnows that hang out here can possibly make even a dent in the PM supply?  Cheesy Maybe you ought to hit up the Winklevoss twins. However, I don't think even they could muster enough to make a dent. Maybe you can get Barry to suddenly change the investment strategy of DCG.  Cool

2 billion oz above ground silver = $32 billion
bitcoin market cap = $242 billion



Come on man.  Peru alone has 120,000 MT of silver reserve.  That's 3.85 billion troy ounces.  I think your numbers are way off.

I'm talking about above ground investment grade silver that can be delivered to market.  You're talking about so called "deep storage" silver, which isn't even economical to extract.  Even so, you referenced (the largest below ground silver reserve in the world?) and it's only $60.8 billion.  But that's like saying trees aren't valuable because I saw a tree over there we haven't cut down and dragged to market yet.  

It requires two neutron stars colliding to make that silver, so unlike the tree, once that largest in the world silver reserve is gone, you aren't getting another one.  And mostly unlike gold, civilization actually needs that silver to function and uses it up all the time.  It also might take some astronomical time span like 20 years to extract the silver you referenced, and might cost an order of magnitude higher silver prices for it to happen.  When you say the world has so and so amount of silver below ground, the number is meaningless because it might cost $100+ an ounce to extract the stuff you're talking about.
bitserve
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December 23, 2017, 03:19:26 AM

It was no joke, I actually did the calculation:

Current Bitcoin price: $15.000
Reasonable Average Lambo Price: $300.000

So for 1 BTC to be worth $300.000 we would need a 20x

If you have a somewhat fragmented wallet you can end with a $100 fee right now for "premium delivery". Note: You are a Lambo purchaser, so you don't want to look cheap, you go for premium of course.

$100*20x=$2000

Well, I have seen good condition second hand Fiats for less. So, there you go, 1 Fiat fee for a 1 Lambo purchase.

P.S.: Some figures slightly rounded for easy of comprehension. Some additional factors that could worsen or alleviate network congestion not taken into consideration. No animals were harmed during the making of the calculations. This is not investment advice.

I do not know whether to laugh or cry. I also do not know what to expect at this point: whether to accept the situation and resign myself to thinking that bitcoin has turned into digital gold and money from large financial institutions, or to continue waiting for some "solution"; and I'm not just talking about LN, because if we continue like this, inevitably opening and closing a channel will cost $ 1000 in fees.

If I spend all of the BTC that I have in a channel, I don't need to worry about closing it. That would be the other guy's problem. No? LN is not for HODLs. It's for people wanting to either use it as a cheap and easy arb channel or because they want coffee.

Do you expect the other end to settle the channel and not to repeat the fee + profit to you? What kind of world do you think we live in? Smiley
bones261
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December 23, 2017, 03:25:44 AM


I'm talking about above ground investment grade silver that can be delivered to market.  You're talking about so called "deep storage" silver, which isn't even economical to extract.  Even so, you referenced (the largest below ground silver reserve in the world?) and it's only $60.8 billion.  But that's like saying trees aren't valuable because I saw a tree over there we haven't cut down and dragged to market yet.  

It requires two neutron stars colliding to make that silver, so unlike the tree, once that largest in the world silver reserve is gone, you aren't getting another one.  And mostly unlike gold, civilization actually needs that silver to function and uses it up all the time.  It also might take some astronomical time span like 20 years to extract the silver you referenced, and might cost an order of magnitude higher silver prices for it to happen.

Silver can be produced through the s-process in larger stars and can also be produced in normal supernova through the r-process. The two neutron stars colliding is just an extreme way to get the r-process going.
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December 23, 2017, 03:31:36 AM

Silver can be produced through the s-process in larger stars and can also be produced in normal supernova through the r-process. The two neutron stars colliding is just an extreme way to get the r-process going.

Unless you plan to hold a cup out on earth while standing in the blast zone of a supernova raining down on you, the semantics of that equation are not so important concerning the mostly closed ecosystem of this planet.
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December 23, 2017, 03:31:47 AM

Is it just me or the 1d Bitstamp chart looks VERY bullish?
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December 23, 2017, 03:34:36 AM

Is it just me or the 1d Bitstamp chart looks VERY bullish?

The 4 hour looks to be turning bullish
bones261
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December 23, 2017, 03:42:48 AM

Silver can be produced through the s-process in larger stars and can also be produced in normal supernova through the r-process. The two neutron stars colliding is just an extreme way to get the r-process going.

Unless you plan to hold a cup out on earth while standing in the blast zone of a supernova raining down on you, the semantics of that equation are not so important concerning the mostly closed ecosystem of this planet.
It is possible to synthesize silver with modern equipment, though. Although I concede that the production cost would end up being magnitudes of order greater than any value received. Our civilization would have to be on the Dyson Sphere level to even come close to making that economical.
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December 23, 2017, 03:56:28 AM


It is possible to synthesize silver with modern equipment, though. Although I concede that the production cost would end up being magnitudes of order greater than any value received. Our civilization would have to be on the Dyson Sphere level to even come close to making that economical.

I think the fact that years ago, everyone knows that solar energy requires massive amount of silver and yet silver failed to stage even a meaningful rally is quite bearish.  Even China, which is on Silver Standard for a millennium and was one of the largest silver producer in the world (still is), doesn't care about silver.  It just means that silver has been demonetized.  A study on why something would be monetized (like bitcoin) or demonetized (like silver) is an interesting topic in itself.  But now days, I just give away those silver maples/eagles as souvenirs.  Pretty much no one has a clue on how much these lovely coins are worth.

As for Dyson Sphere, I suspect that if they are ever built, they would be for powering bitcoin hashing rather than synthesizing silver at the rate we are going with hashrate.   Wink
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December 23, 2017, 03:59:01 AM

Inverse H+S forming on 30 minute Stamp (target $14,900)






https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inverseheadandshoulders.asp

Creeping up on it!
bones261
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December 23, 2017, 04:05:21 AM


It is possible to synthesize silver with modern equipment, though. Although I concede that the production cost would end up being magnitudes of order greater than any value received. Our civilization would have to be on the Dyson Sphere level to even come close to making that economical.

I think the fact that years ago, everyone knows that solar energy requires massive amount of silver and yet silver failed to stage even a meaningful rally is quite bearish.  Even China, which is on Silver Standard for a millennium and was one of the largest silver producer in the world (still is), doesn't care about silver.  It just means that silver has been demonetized.  A study on why something would be monetized (like bitcoin) or demonetized (like silver) is an interesting topic in itself.  But now days, I just give away those silver maples/eagles as souvenirs.  Pretty much no one has a clue on how much these lovely coins are worth.

As for Dyson Sphere, I suspect that if they are ever built, they would be for powering bitcoin hashing rather than synthesizing silver at the rate we are going with hashrate.   Wink

If silver is required for solar energy, than a Dyson Sphere would need lots of it. You can't build massive solar collectors (which are what dyson spheres are), out of Bitcoins.  
LewisPirenne
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December 23, 2017, 04:13:44 AM


I think the fact that years ago, everyone knows that solar energy requires massive amount of silver and yet silver failed to stage even a meaningful rally is quite bearish.  Even China, which is on Silver Standard for a millennium and was one of the largest silver producer in the world (still is), doesn't care about silver.  It just means that silver has been demonetized.  A study on why something would be monetized (like bitcoin) or demonetized (like silver) is an interesting topic in itself.  But now days, I just give away those silver maples/eagles as souvenirs.  Pretty much no one has a clue on how much these lovely coins are worth.

As for Dyson Sphere, I suspect that if they are ever built, they would be for powering bitcoin hashing rather than synthesizing silver at the rate we are going with hashrate.   Wink

If silver is required for solar energy, than a Dyson Sphere would need lots of it. You can't build massive solar collectors (which are what dyson spheres are), out of Bitcoins.  

Like those permanent magnet based on rare earth, as soon as rare earth elements price spike a few years back, all sorts of cost saving process are researched and implemented.  So not a surprise that as silver is like I think 20% (?) cost of solar panel, people immediately shift to thin-film process.  So I presume that future process may not use any silver at all, just like there are permanent magnet without rare earth elements now days, since they are crucial for electric cars. 
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December 23, 2017, 04:25:25 AM


It is possible to synthesize silver with modern equipment, though. Although I concede that the production cost would end up being magnitudes of order greater than any value received. Our civilization would have to be on the Dyson Sphere level to even come close to making that economical.

I think the fact that years ago, everyone knows that solar energy requires massive amount of silver and yet silver failed to stage even a meaningful rally is quite bearish.  Even China, which is on Silver Standard for a millennium and was one of the largest silver producer in the world (still is), doesn't care about silver.  It just means that silver has been demonetized.  A study on why something would be monetized (like bitcoin) or demonetized (like silver) is an interesting topic in itself.  But now days, I just give away those silver maples/eagles as souvenirs.  Pretty much no one has a clue on how much these lovely coins are worth.

As for Dyson Sphere, I suspect that if they are ever built, they would be for powering bitcoin hashing rather than synthesizing silver at the rate we are going with hashrate.   Wink

Silver is demonetized because the sovereign wants it to be demonetized. Similarly to how the UK drivers use the side of the road opposite to the side of the road used by the US. Different rulers; to a degree.
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December 23, 2017, 04:26:06 AM

It looks like it secretly might want to do one more to somewhere between $8K and $12K. There still wasn't enough volume.
bones261
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December 23, 2017, 04:29:13 AM

Any particular reason why Arb bots are not buying BTC from finex and selling them on Bitstamp, Gdax and Gemini. Surely a spread of 5% plus that Finex had for quite some time would be worth it. I would think the arb bots would be bringing these markets closer together. What is Spoofy up to?  Huh
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December 23, 2017, 04:30:40 AM

Take a peek into the inner workings. Technical discussion on address format is strangely compelling.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2624630.0

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December 23, 2017, 04:32:44 AM

It looks like it secretly might want to do one more to somewhere between $8K and $12K. There still wasn't enough volume.

I think you secretly want that to happen, not Bitcoin
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December 23, 2017, 04:35:33 AM

I think the fact that years ago, everyone knows that solar energy requires massive amount of silver and yet silver failed to stage even a meaningful rally is quite bearish.

That has zero to do with it.  The US produces BARELY ANY silver at all.  They rigged the price of silver to both try and prop up the debt based scam dollar, plus it means the US pays nothing for all the silver it imports.  It also means nations like Mexico give away some of their most precious assets for nothing.  All that is now changing.

Many of these other nations they tried to impoverish on purpose started hoarding gold (like India and numerous arab states).  So now there is no real incentive for organizations like the Pilgrim society to prop up gold and suppress silver.  If anything, there's now more incentive to let silver rise and suppress gold.  None of the world powers want places like India to all become millionaires overnight.  That would just mean the other nations are their slaves, and why would anyone be a slave to India?  The fact India has lots of gold means the price of gold is capped at a certain point but silver can moonshot.

Fort Knox doesn't have the gold there either and JP Morgan has acquired an enormous amount of silver on behalf of the US govt as part of their plan B, C, D, E, F, G when the monetary system blows up; that and strategic reserve. So as you can see, silver is not going to be suppressed much longer since there's no real reason to.  When the metals sector breaks free, they aren't going to try and stop silver from ripping people's faces off.

Even China, which is on Silver Standard for a millennium and was one of the largest silver producer in the world (still is), doesn't care about silver.

There is a reason China now issues silver in the same acrylic, protective capsules as they do gold.  You just haven't seen why yet.
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December 23, 2017, 04:37:15 AM

Hear ye, fair citizens...

What's crackin'?

FOLLOW THE ORANGE BRICK ROAD!

FOLLOW THE ORANGE BRICK ROAD!

HODL HODL HODL HODL!

FOLLOW THE ORANGE BRICK ROAD!
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December 23, 2017, 04:38:08 AM

Take a peek into the inner workings. Technical discussion on address format is strangely compelling.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2624630.0



Are addresses going to be longer because there is a concern they can be cracked with quantum computers within the next 10-20 years?  I think I read this somewhere.
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