Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LewisPirenne]

This is just to note that just as people can pump and manipulate BTC price, they can pump and manipulate fee market too.  So now if people don't want to get fleeced, they got to look at distribution of pending tx in mempool too.  

Since now we have people still sending out large batches of 1K satoshi/byte txs when mempool was down to 140 satoshi/byte range.  So fee estimator can be way off.  Also, there is only a handful of block found 2~4 hours ago, in fact only 1 block was found in the entire hour, that will screw up the fee estimator even more as those 1K satoshi fee tx do come out in batches and if no blocks are found regularly, they eat up more and more of space in the next block.  But BTC.TOP did just shift back most of their hashrate to BTC chain now, so more blocks will probably be found.  But it's kind of scary just to see how much hashrate Chinese mining cartel controls now and it is still going up fast.

P.S.  This is a good site to see the fee distribution of TX, check it before sending out tx so that people don't overpay.

https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

Naturally as many people pointed out, a visual version is here.

https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/more/#24h

There are also fee estimators directly on Chinese mining pool websites.  Necessary because people might want to use their tx accelerator to pay those "out of band" fee.

As people can see, those 1K satoshi tx is sitting at one end, with almost nothing in between, but as network clogs up, it will "help" to shift the fee back up again.

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[milkshock100]

Looks like bitcoin is giving us our Christmas presents

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Looks like bitcoin is giving us our Christmas presents

Still seems sort of dumpy from this angle.

[jbreher]

Merry Xmas, WO!

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Merry Xmas, WO!

Deck all the halls!

[svdleer]

For a moment it looked the price was increasing, but many new sell orders are inserted below the walls

[milkshock100]

Looks like bitcoin is giving us our Christmas presents

Still seems sort of dumpy from this angle.

Higher lows....

[TERA2]

[milkshock100]

That looks bullish to me

[TERA2]

It is being a little too aggressive about challenging that line. it might break and go to a different slower line i didnt I draw.

[milkshock100]

It is being a little too aggressive about challenging that line. it might break and go to a different slower line i didnt I draw.

My view is the immediate danger has now passed. Any catastrophic collapse down to below 10k looks off the table completely.

[TERA2]

My view is different. I think the daily chart looks pretty ugly compared to previous drops. The best case scenario is that it goes back up for a double top at 20k before the real crash. More realistically it only makes it to 16K.

[Wekkel]

My view is different. I think the daily chart looks pretty ugly compared to previous drops. The best case scenario is that it goes back up for a double top at 20k before the real crash. More realistically it only makes it to 16K.

I am also cautious. Usually, that is a contra-indicator 

[HairyMaclairy]

I agree the daily is ugly.  But it’s also close to breaking the trend.  Whether it goes up or down from here is the $2 question.   Hard to read anything into it - price just seems to be drifting aimlessly for the past 5 hours.

[milkshock100]

I agree the daily is ugly.  But it’s also close to breaking the trend.  Whether it goes up or down from here is the $2 question.   Hard to read anything into it - price just seems to be drifting aimlessly for the past 5 hours.

We’ve been nowhere seriously near fridays nightmare since and that gives me confidence.

[TERA2]

I think Friday was catalyzed by some kind of failure with the Bitfinex trading engine so it's hard to match that kind of momentum without that still going on.

[HairyMaclairy]

I agree the daily is ugly.  But it’s also close to breaking the trend.  Whether it goes up or down from here is the $2 question.   Hard to read anything into it - price just seems to be drifting aimlessly for the past 5 hours.

We’ve been nowhere seriously near fridays nightmare since and that gives me confidence.

Yes Friday was bad.  I was mentally ready to go back to cryptowinter even though I knew at an intellectual level this is nothing like 2014.  I still think the whales have got at least one good shake down in them before business restarts in January - probably two.  If I had to place a bet I would go with a shakedown on 28 January with the Segwit 2X fork (it’s actually 4x but no one is counting at this point).  I bet it doesn’t have replay protection so the trolls will make a big fuss about that.

Block 501451.

[orpington]

I think Friday was catalyzed by some kind of failure with the Bitfinex trading engine so it's hard to match that kind of momentum without that still going on.

That doesn't make much sense.

How so exactly?

[milkshock100]

I think Friday was catalyzed by some kind of failure with the Bitfinex trading engine so it's hard to match that kind of momentum without that still going on.

That doesn't make much sense.

How so exactly?

He wants to avoid the elephant in the room that doesn’t support his argument.

FWIW he’s a good poster and I respect him but I think he’s running away from the Friday issue. And that is we took a beating on Friday but the market didn’t blink.

[TERA2]

I was watching the tape and it was really wierd. Trades going off in intervals and long periods of virtually no volume, and that huge gap. Almost like gox getting ddosed.