Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA2]

I have to admit my calls about altcoins are much better than my calls about usd. You could made tremendous profits listening to every one of my altcoins calls including emc, bch at 0.07, and doge when it was still at 20 sat.

Where's the Tether calls?

I didn't make any Tether calls. I might have joked "tether to the moon" but I'm scared to death having to hold tethers instead of fiat.

[realr0ach]

I didn't make any Tether calls. I might have joked "tether to the moon" but I'm scared to death having to hold tethers instead of fiat.

The Eth scammers allow you to hedge your tether scam with another scam!

https://www.reddit.com/r/Tether/comments/7lx3bw/introducing_the_tether_default_swap/

[AlcoHoDL]

I'm going to take a stab at explaining why bigger blocks are a bad solution to the vending machine problem.

Eventually ( and SOON(tm)) the demands on the worlds premier blockchain will cause it to be impossible to run fully L1 transactions on pedestrian hardware.  And the more demands we make on the hardware that run full nodes (users and miners), the more we shift that job to the hands of the powerful and rich (mostly the miners).  They will be incentivized to build cartels as the validation of transactions on the network become more and more centralized.  



This recent twitter conversation should give a big blocker pause.  Let's just say Microsoft decides to use the BITCOIN blockchain to handle decentralized identity validation.  If this were to happen we would see possibly tens of MILLIONS of transactions a second.  And this kind of stuff WILL happen.  If the blockchain is to remain uncensored it HAS to.

Anyone care to do the math to see how big the BCH block size would have to be to handle this increase?  Suffice it to say nothing close to 8MB will cut it.  And this smashes Moore's law.  Instantly we need drive space, network bandwidth, and computational power to handle MUCH bigger block sizes.  And the time constant stays the same.  We have to be able to do this in 10 minutes for each block.

Instantly we have a small number of people controlling the Bitcoin network.  Will make a 51% attack a piece of cake among other things.

Making Bitcoin blocks 8MB so you can buy a bag of weed with it (why the HELL are you buying weed using a transparent blockchain by the way?  Use Monero for this?) is like putting a bandaid on a bullet wound.

Sidechains are needed, powerful, and INEVITABLE.  The use of sidechains will not preclude transaction made directly on the base chain.  The real Bitcoin will have all this power soon.  Soon enough, believe it or not...  This is why people are saying to use Litecoin, or Monero until the mempool cools down.

BCASH is part of an planned and orchestrated power grabbing attack on Bitcoin.

There is only one Bitcoin.

Well said.

[JayJuanGee]

So anyone buying their other half or family members some BTC for Christmas?

I've given each of the progeny (3 kids, 2 inlaws, 2 grandkids) 1 BTC each of the last three xmases. I see no reason to divert. This year, they'll be wrapped in Ledger Nano Ss.

O.k.

I understand that each of us have our proclivities for generousity, or not, but that sounds financially ridiculous for normal people.

I am presuming that you and I have similar quantities of bitcoin, and it seems ridiculous to me to give away gifts that are valued at about 40x more than they were two years ago and three years ago - merely because it is your tradition to give away the unit value of bitcoin, but bitcoin is measured in terms of dollars - and 40x just seems too outrageous.

 Awww come on JJG lighten up.  The man can do what he wants with his Bitcoin and it's family for crying out loud!
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that jbreher doesn't fall into the financially normal category anyway.

edit: to correct grammatical error

I know that I am being judgmental, but I do think that it is a bad practice to give away too much value for free and even to deviate nearly 20x from last year, and about 40x from when the practice started.  It comes off as just crazy-ass psychotic, from my conservative charlie perspective.

[HairyMaclairy]

I didn't make any Tether calls. I might have joked "tether to the moon" but I'm scared to death having to hold tethers instead of fiat.

Do you think there is a difference between holding $50 in Tether and Bittrex showing an unsecured credit in in its books in your name for US$50?

[JayJuanGee]

So anyone buying their other half or family members some BTC for Christmas?

I've given each of the progeny (3 kids, 2 inlaws, 2 grandkids) 1 BTC each of the last three xmases. I see no reason to divert. This year, they'll be wrapped in Ledger Nano Ss.

O.k.

I understand that each of us have our proclivities for generousity, or not, but that sounds financially ridiculous for normal people.

I am presuming that you and I have similar quantities of bitcoin, and it seems ridiculous to me to give away gifts that are valued at about 40x more than they were two years ago and three years ago - merely because it is your tradition to give away the unit value of bitcoin, but bitcoin is measured in terms of dollars - and 40x just seems too outrageous.

 Awww come on JJG lighten up.  The man can do what he wants with his Bitcoin and its family for crying out loud!
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that jbreher doesn't fall into the financially normal category anyway.

I have always presumed jbreher is probably at least in the 4 digits BTC, maybe even in the (low) 5's.... Which is one of the reasons I have always wondered and tried to understand why he decided to go the "wrong way" (Jihan/Ver/Bcash) with so much at stake.

JJG is most probably in the (low) three digits.

... Of course that are just my estimations I take out my ass. Might perfectly be wrong.

And anyone can do whatever he feels like with his stuff!

Ok.  Sure we can speculate about how many BTC that folks have here, and no one needs to admit anything...  and therefore, I am going to suggest to you, bitserve, that you are way off in your estimations of jbreher.  His behavior is not consistent with someone who owns 5 digits or even 4 digits for that matter.  You even indicated that there is a bit of irony in his "going the wrong way" with Bcash bullshit - and furthermore, if you consider his methodology in trading, that would certainly not be consistent with folks having either 5 digits or even 4 digits of BTC.

Regarding the point about anyone can do what they like with their BTC, I surely do agree; however, I stick with my point that giveing away so much value and lack of consistency to be "crazy ass" unless he lives in some kind of commune type of culture, and in that regard, it would be a kind of thing that everyone in that community does... yet I really doubt that is the case with jbreher.  Instead, I think that he is inconsistently giving away such BTC in an inconsistent manner because there is some kind of screw loose in the whole logic, and really it is kind of unbelievable that a rational person would do this - even though I am a bit inclined to believe that he is not making it up, for some strange reason, I believe that he really is doing this irrational and outrageous thing that he claims to be doing.   

[JayJuanGee]

so every shitcoin is pumping hugely but BTC is only moving slowly. What the fuck, all of a sudden BTC is shit or something.

You should actually try to use Bitcoin and make your own decision.

"using" bitcoin also includes holding it in a wallet or an exchange.  Have you ever heard of that kind of "use"? 

I will repeat:  You are simply ridiculous with your ongoing trolling, shilling and bitcoin simplicity/negativism, BayAreaCoins!!!!!!       

[RoomBot]

                                                                                       -Roombot                !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

09/03/2018

Thanks!   

[JayJuanGee]

I am still waiting for the Bitcoin price to really fall, so I can buy some more..

What is "really fall"?

Do you realize that we already had about a 43% correction from $19,666 to $11,160, and surely we had some decent rebound from that $11,160 low point, and surely, there is no guarantee that support at $11,160 will not be tested again, but you certainly have no guarantees of any such retest or prices going below that $11,160 level. 

O.k. I understand that you might have some kind of primary target of what you believe to be a "real fall", yet do you have a back up strategy in case your primary target is not too likely to play out?  Further, what kind of odds are you placing on this "really fall" outcome?

[savetherainforest]

                                                                                       -Roombot                !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

09/03/2018

Thanks!   

Good for you! But I don't think it will be that late.

I based my prediction on a new global financial crisis... And I'm still thinking I made a bearish prediction.

When something is possible to go wrong, then something will go wrong!!!

[Fakhoury]

Just came to say Hi and to share something euphoric about the future

What the hell happened to you, since about May-ish?

I have read many speculations about you no longer being with us?

Another extreme dear brother showing up, my dear JJG.

Have been drowning into the crypto twitter ocean and IRL issues.

But finally back and gave our bullish thread a push 

I've missed you all brother, hopefully I won't fade away again 

EXACTAMENTE!!!

Even though each of us have our differing styles, your style has been missed - yet it seems a bit extreme, too, of you, to post 2-10 bullish media articles per day for several months (and spoil many of us), and then completely disaparecer for 6 months -ish.

In any event, I am glad to see you back, and I look forward to posts and your perspective.

O..k..  One other point that I would like to make is that I had frequently asserted that you were much more bullish than me regarding short term BTC price performance - especially if we look back to our interactive posts in the late 2015 time frame and even the ones in the mid-to-late 2016 time frame.  So, it seems that you were much closer in your assessment than me, because current BTC prices are running about 3x to 4x higher than my most likely bullish assessments of those times.

I confess my brother, I'm an extremist.

I'm not a moderate person and an insane risk taker, so let it be whatever it meant to be.

I did you miss you a lot my dear brother and missed our talks a lot and here they are back again

My new targets are as follows, and you are free to call me an insane/crazy person, I know I'm mentally mad :

2018 will end at $100,000
2020 will end at $1,000,000

We are just warming up and we ain't seen anything yet, wait to witness 2018, it's will be a mind-blowing year.

I am going to call you insane/crazy, perhaps with a couple of conditions.  First condition:  What you are saying does not seem to be out of the range of contemplation - however, each of those numbers under those time lines seem like  long shots - however, if the first one is met, then the second one would become more probable.  Second condition:  I hope that you are careful in terms of your own investment - because without revealing details, it seems to me that you should have a lot of value right now, whether you hold that value in crypto or fiat or alts or some combination, so in that regard, I hope that you are hedging what I perceive to be (and you seem to admit) your extreme thoughts.  hahahaha.. you and MacAfee...   I just realized ---- John, is that you?   

Well, what I've figured from living on this planet for 27 years that all of my life is based on "bets" and not a normal bets, it's a "take-all-lose-all" bets as I've a major issue in my personality called "Perfection!!!!"

Regarding cryptocurriences, I guess I've said it before, I'm "all-in".

So let it be what is was destinated to be, I'm here for the long haul and for the perfect me.

Actually I din't see those number long shots.

These year we did nearly a 20x, it we make another 20x, we will end 2018 at $400,000, so can't end at $100,000 ?

2018 will the start of the real fireworks.

I suppose that if your self-assessment of your perspective and methodology seem to be working out pretty good for you overall, then it would be difficult to change, and as you suggest, there would likely not be any need to change a system that is working and does not seem to be broken.

I will admit that the BTC price performance of about the past 4 months has been about 3x to 4x more bullish than amongst my most bullish of perspectives, in the early to mid part of 2017 and previously.  Accordingly, such bullish performance has caused me to tweak my BTC expectations even further upwards. 

Personally, I don't think that my tweaking of my BTC price expectations further upwards is some kind of pie in the sky getting caught up in hoopla, but instead is based on a kind of solid evidence based reassessment of the situation based on such evidence.  I surely doubt that we are at the top of the current trend, and we will be testing the resistance of ATH price points in the near future (within 1 week to 3 months); however, I still think that another 2x is a bit much to expect in the coming year or so. 

Think about it Fakhoury, we should not be measuring BTC performance merely within the bounds of our current calendar year, but we should be considering the whole upwards price performance, which is largely a more than two year phenomenon and a bouncing off of support that was largely in the mid $200s from 2015.  So, o.k.  If we look at $250-ish as the start off point, then we have a bit more than a 78x price increase from $250 to $19666.  Furthermore, we have a bit of an increasing exponential curve, especially since about August 2017, yet at the same time, we have a lot of bullish fundamentals, including Segwit and including increased financialization and including increasing world adoption, so much better liquidity, but even with all of these positive things going on in bitcoin, buying pressure still has to keep up with the exponential increases in price, so yeah, I can see another 65% to 7x price increase in the coming year (I mean beyond our current ATH of $19666); however, I have a bit more difficult time appreciating any kind of meaningful likelihood of another 20x within about the next year.  That would be fucking amazing, and not completely impossible from my perspective, but surely on the low end of probabilities, perhaps less than 2% in my current thinking... but hey, call me a conservative charlie.       

At first I'm sorry for my broken English in my last reply, when I read it, I sounded like a drunk guy  

I will call you a contradictory Charile, why ? Read those two sentences from your reply

"however, I still think that another 2x is a bit much to expect in the coming year or so."
"so yeah, I can see another 65% to 7x price increase in the coming year (I mean beyond our current ATH of $19666)"

I don't prefer we do another 20x as I will really be afraid from a serious bubble and NO, we are not in a bubble now, we are in a S-adoption curve as well as S-price curve.

There was an simple analysis made by a friend of mine on twitter talked about topping the S-curve at $2.4m which makes sense although it can go beyond that figure when we go past that point, why would it stop there ?

What you didn't get from me is that in 2017 we made nearly 20x, and IF we make another 20x we will be at $400K and my predication is at $100K which is simply 5x, can't we do ONLY 5x next year ?

Don't underestimate the power of the institutional money and still the mainstream is far away from Bitcoin, yes they are hearing about it, but not acting towards it yet.

[Dunkelheit667]

I am taking some time now to transfer to segwit addresses. ( From my non Armory holdings.)

I used a 140 satoshis per byte. It went through in 3 blocks as a test. ( maybe I overpaid?)

Fees appear to be coming down at the moment.
https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

So, I got a lot of transactions through quickly at 120-131 Sat / byte, many around $4.35. Not cheap by 2014 standards, but not too bad, I guess. I am leaving my legacy paper wallets alone for the moment.

Guess the spam attack will restart tomorrow and took my chance as well to transfer some 'dust'. Three (!) inputs, 484 Bytes, 125 Sat/Byte, ~ 7.5 € as fee = confirmed within two minutes, guess that's okay in times of war.

[RoomBot]

                                                                                       -Roombot                !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

09/03/2018

Thanks!  

Good for you! But I don't think it will be that late.

I based my prediction on a new global financial crisis... And I'm still thinking I made a bearish prediction.

When something is possible to go wrong, then something will go wrong!!!

I don't think so either!  I tried for Feb.

No worries, I won .1 BCH on Twitter!!!!1111  

Gonna dump it and the rest of my BCH for the lovely BTC dip tomorrow.

BTW I think Coinbase must be using the Lightning Network.... they are speeding up txs.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

At first I'm sorry for my broken English in my last reply, when I read it, I sounded like a drunk guy  

I had not noticed.  I was mostly reading for substantive points, anyhow.

I will call you a contradictory Charile, why ? Read those two sentences from your reply

"however, I still think that another 2x is a bit much to expect in the coming year or so."
"so yeah, I can see another 65% to 7x price increase in the coming year (I mean beyond our current ATH of $19666)"

I'm sorry, I made a typo there.  I had meant to refer back to your 20x assertion, and I accidentally typed 2x.  I went back and fixed that in my original post because I had really meant to say 20x.  I am glad that you caught that.   

I don't prefer we do another 20x as I will really be afraid from a serious bubble and NO, we are not in a bubble now, we are in a S-adoption curve as well as S-price curve.

I agree with both of those assertions.  Yes....

So in essence you are admitting, if we did happen to do another 20x, that would likely be a kind of "blow off" top that would likely end up in a kind of prolonged period of correction... Maybe we are kind of on a similar page, here, but I am kind of thinking that anywhere between another 4x and 7x price appreciation within the next year would be a "blow-off" top too, and anything beyond 7x would be beyond any kind of reasonable expectations that I could conceive.

There was an simple analysis made by a friend of mine on twitter talked about topping the S-curve at $2.4m which makes sense although it can go beyond that figure when we go past that point, why would it stop there ?

I hope that he is not referring to a 1 or 2 year scenario because 2.4m in that kind of timeframe would be in the territory of absolute insanity, and personally, I would think that a 2.4m scenario would be quite difficult to achieve before 2024-ish.... not impossible, but quite a bit in the "slim chance" arena.

What you didn't get from me is that in 2017 we made nearly 20x, and IF we make another 20x we will be at $400K and my predication is at $100K which is simply 5x, can't we do ONLY 5x next year ?

O.k.  Perhaps, I read too much zealousness in your earlier response, and sorry that was my wrong interpretation.  I do think that $100k is more possible in 2018 - but even that seems a bit on the difficult to achieve scenarios.. probably less than 25%, but surely much more achievable than $400k.

Also, yeah, we already know that bitcoin has tendencies to outperform expectations, so surely I doubt that either of us are locked into our current prognosis, because, for example, if, in the next six months, events unravel in one direction or another that is outside of expectations, then those events could also cause a need to tweak price predictions for the subsequent six months or so.

Don't underestimate the power of the institutional money and still the mainstream is far away from Bitcoin, yes they are hearing about it, but not acting towards it yet.

EXACTLY!!!!!   Those are two factors that remain BIG in this whole influential formula... Let's continue to monitor these factors, and I surely find these two factors to be quite exciting and also ongoingly difficult to quantify with any kind of precision.

[jojo69]

At first I'm sorry for my broken English in my last reply, when I read it, I sounded like a drunk guy  

I like this guy already

in other news, Bitcoin; slow, expensive, and annoying...just the way I like it

https://tomluongo.me/2017/11/16/the-foundation-of-the-next-cryptocurrency-bull-market/

Over time the market will decide how much of a true free-market economy should hold as its reserves a pool of real savings versus at-risk liquid capital.

We don’t have this now in the ‘real world’ because central banks distort risk assessment through the manipulation of interest rates, the cost of money.  They do this to minimize the amount of savings to promote money velocity versus wealth creation.

[Arriemoller]

Is there still a chance bitcoin breaks ath before the new year? Is CME, CBOE and other old financial company traders trying to kill bitcoin's growth slowly?

Perhaps 38.6317928%-ish?  hahahahaha.... more conservative charlie from me?

JJG, are you on drugs during the holidays? Or just drunk?

[Fakhoury]

[edited out]

At first I'm sorry for my broken English in my last reply, when I read it, I sounded like a drunk guy  

I had not noticed.  I was mostly reading for substantive points, anyhow.

I will call you a contradictory Charile, why ? Read those two sentences from your reply

"however, I still think that another 2x is a bit much to expect in the coming year or so."
"so yeah, I can see another 65% to 7x price increase in the coming year (I mean beyond our current ATH of $19666)"

I'm sorry, I made a typo there.  I had meant to refer back to your 20x assertion, and I accidentally typed 2x.  I went back and fixed that in my original post because I had really meant to say 20x.  I am glad that you caught that.   

I don't prefer we do another 20x as I will really be afraid from a serious bubble and NO, we are not in a bubble now, we are in a S-adoption curve as well as S-price curve.

I agree with both of those assertions.  Yes....

So in essence you are admitting, if we did happen to do another 20x, that would likely be a kind of "blow off" top that would likely end up in a kind of prolonged period of correction... Maybe we are kind of on a similar page, here, but I am kind of thinking that anywhere between another 4x and 7x price appreciation within the next year would be a "blow-off" top too, and anything beyond 7x would be beyond any kind of reasonable expectations that I could conceive.

There was an simple analysis made by a friend of mine on twitter talked about topping the S-curve at $2.4m which makes sense although it can go beyond that figure when we go past that point, why would it stop there ?

I hope that he is not referring to a 1 or 2 year scenario because 2.4m in that kind of timeframe would be in the territory of absolute insanity, and personally, I would think that a 2.4m scenario would be quite difficult to achieve before 2024-ish.... not impossible, but quite a bit in the "slim chance" arena.

What you didn't get from me is that in 2017 we made nearly 20x, and IF we make another 20x we will be at $400K and my predication is at $100K which is simply 5x, can't we do ONLY 5x next year ?

O.k.  Perhaps, I read too much zealousness in your earlier response, and sorry that was my wrong interpretation.  I do think that $100k is more possible in 2018 - but even that seems a bit on the difficult to achieve scenarios.. probably less than 25%, but surely much more achievable than $400k.

Also, yeah, we already know that bitcoin has tendencies to outperform expectations, so surely I doubt that either of us are locked into our current prognosis, because, for example, if, in the next six months, events unravel in one direction or another that is outside of expectations, then those events could also cause a need to tweak price predictions for the subsequent six months or so.

Don't underestimate the power of the institutional money and still the mainstream is far away from Bitcoin, yes they are hearing about it, but not acting towards it yet.

EXACTLY!!!!!   Those are two factors that remain BIG in this whole influential formula... Let's continue to monitor these factors, and I surely find these two factors to be quite exciting and also ongoingly difficult to quantify with any kind of precision.

Regarding the blow-off, I highly guess we've achieved it with the latest bull run FOR NOW. For sure it will occur once and twice in the parabolic trend we are in. And what is happening in terms of the correction, is extremely healthy to continue our bull-run in healthy manners as well.

I agree that we won't see $2.4m before the 2022-2024 but from numbers perspective, when you go higher in value, those high number, although they seem big, but they are mathematically achievable PLUS you are seen by the world eyes that you are serious as heck and the game becomes more and more serious.

Lets take this small example :

From $1 to $50 is a 50x move WHICH IS THE SAME MOVE from $20,000 to $1,000,000, it's just physiological difficult to the human brain to interpret those high numbers and digest them easily.

Don't forget that the G7 central banks and other central banks of all, if not all or most of them, will be buying Bitcoin excessively where some of them already started and this was and will be in the darks but it will reflect on the price no matter what happens due the scarcity of the coin.

I would like you, JJG, to take a look at the following inforgraph and see how we achieved nearly $20,000 without achieving / merely achieving anything in that infograph



Do you see the potential we've left ?

LONG way to go still my dear brother and friend

[Fakhoury]

At first I'm sorry for my broken English in my last reply, when I read it, I sounded like a drunk guy  

I like this guy already

in other news, Bitcoin; slow, expensive, and annoying...just the way I like it

https://tomluongo.me/2017/11/16/the-foundation-of-the-next-cryptocurrency-bull-market/

And I like you as well my friend

You've a great point here, it's extremely bullish that we are those prices and still Bitcoin is slow, expensive and annoying, we are still at a 9 years old technology and we've a plenty of room to expand within.

[realr0ach]

JJG, are you on drugs during the holidays? Or just drunk?

JayJuanGee isn't a person, it's a Google AI bot.  You didn't know this?

[triads]

Regarding the blow-off, I highly guess we've achieved it with the latest bull run FOR NOW. For sure it will occur once and twice in the parabolic trend we are in. And what is happening in terms of the correction, is extremely healthy to continue our bull-run in healthy manners as well.

Retracements are essential to further price gains. It shakes out the weaker hands and holders who were waiting for any excuse to sell. Remove the sellers and it sets the stage for the next climb. The price is already equilibrating nicely around $14,000.