Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[vokain]

Vokain I agree, what I am trying to say is that Bitstamp changed soooo much since Bitfinex started using them and one should expect unrationality (there were so many examples when I was screaming "what a stupid buy").

Is it a stupid buy if they think on the time frame of a few weeks/months that we're going to eventually correct from the bubble deflation? Perhaps with the crazy long margin interests yes...but perhaps it's worth it to them? Consider that we are at 96 on Bitstamp, when one year ago, BTC prices were around 15 or less, and another year ago, BTC was recovering from a bubble that brought prices down to $1.998/BTC. With Bitfinex USD interest rates currently at 0.25%/day*365 days=91.25%APR, I'd  seriously consider taking it. Either way, any of your perceived irrationality on Bitfinex's part will be countered by people taking advantage of the disequilibrium via shorts.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2826898#msg2826898
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2840689#msg2840689

[gog1]

103.15 proven to be a fake wall, after getting 500 coins dump, the rest of the bid pull away.

[Cablez]

I thought it might have been there to make the weekend less bleak. Guess I will have to see now what Sunday brings.

[notme]

I thought it might have been there to make the weekend less bleak. Guess I will have to see now what Sunday brings.

Can we finish Saturday first?  11.25 hours left in UTC.

[ChartBuddy]

[oda.krell]

We're about to enter a (short-term, at least, but tradeable IMO) trend reversal, downwards, judging by what I look at. Still avoidable though if price picks up, to 104, 105 maybe.

Interestingly, mtg and bit are decoupled to a degree right now, with bit looking slightly more positive. The two exchanges are still strongly linked of course, but I noticed that there's at least some instances in the past 2 months were bit actually lead mtg. Not the norm though, usually still the other way round.

[gizmoh]

We're about to enter a (short-term, at least, but tradeable IMO) trend reversal, downwards, judging by what I look at. Still avoidable though if price picks up, to 104, 105 maybe.

Interestingly, mtg and bit are decoupled to a degree right now, with bit looking slightly more positive. The two exchanges are still strongly linked of course, but I noticed that there's at least some instances in the past 2 months were bit actually lead mtg. Not the norm though, usually still the other way round.

There are only traders selling and eventually trying to buy back lower, the base investors and miners aware of Gox issues won't sell for USD in limbo.
I am confident the available coins on Gox will continue to decrease the more the hiatus continues, creating price inflation at Gox.
Unless whales decide to induce a panic, but they are also aware of those issues.

[ChartBuddy]

[S3052]

We're about to enter a (short-term, at least, but tradeable IMO) trend reversal, downwards, judging by what I look at. Still avoidable though if price picks up, to 104, 105 maybe.

Interestingly, mtg and bit are decoupled to a degree right now, with bit looking slightly more positive. The two exchanges are still strongly linked of course, but I noticed that there's at least some instances in the past 2 months were bit actually lead mtg. Not the norm though, usually still the other way round.

the increasingly better technicals on bitstamp could be driven by the fact that by now, enough traders moved left mtg and moved to bitstamp and now start actively trading there - and not only use bitstamp as withdrawing funnel

[vokain]

Interestingly, mtg and bit are decoupled to a degree right now, with bit looking slightly more positive. The two exchanges are still strongly linked of course, but I noticed that there's at least some instances in the past 2 months were bit actually lead mtg. Not the norm though, usually still the other way round.

the increasingly better technicals on bitstamp could be driven by the fact that by now, enough traders moved left mtg and moved to bitstamp and now start actively trading there - and not only use bitstamp as withdrawing funnel

[oda.krell]

We're about to enter a (short-term, at least, but tradeable IMO) trend reversal, downwards, judging by what I look at. Still avoidable though if price picks up, to 104, 105 maybe.

Interestingly, mtg and bit are decoupled to a degree right now, with bit looking slightly more positive. The two exchanges are still strongly linked of course, but I noticed that there's at least some instances in the past 2 months were bit actually lead mtg. Not the norm though, usually still the other way round.

There are only traders selling and eventually trying to buy back lower, the base investors and miners aware of Gox issues won't sell for USD in limbo.
I am confident the available coins on Gox will continue to decrease the more the hiatus continues, creating price inflation at Gox.
Unless whales decide to induce a panic, but they are also aware of those issues.

I don't think we talk about the same thing. I'm not talking about the fundamental situation, the general buying/selling situation on either of the exchanges.

I'm talking about short-term *tradeable* (by my metric) dips or upswings. Like those that happen all the time. Like the on that just happened two days ago, where (theoretically) you could have sold at 110 and bought back at 101 (on mtg).

Anyway, like I said, not fully crystallized yet in my opinion, but I'm holding my finger on the trigger, so to speak.

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[Kazu]

Wow absolutely nothing is happening.

[Tzupy]

Actually, a lot is happening. Buyer pressure has increased, so now we have 2 scenarios:
1) a large whale dump that would take advantage of the buy walls, meaning we are deep in bearish scenario.
2) the start of the middle Elliot wave, in which case we'll see peaks of 110, 115, maybe 120.
Without the buy walls who hold for now at 101 - 102, the price would have dropped below 101, possibly below 100.
The walls have been steadily growing, but who knows if they are real or not (they could be pulled).

[vokain]

weekend dip effect (or expectation of) might be in effect a bit  this weekend as well

[derpinheimer]

Actually, a lot is happening. Buyer pressure has increased, so now we have 2 scenarios:
1) a large whale dump that would take advantage of the buy walls, meaning we are deep in bearish scenario.
2) the start of the middle Elliot wave, in which case we'll see peaks of 110, 115, maybe 120.
Without the buy walls who hold for now at 101 - 102, the price would have dropped below 101, possibly below 100.
The walls have been steadily growing, but who knows if they are real or not (they could be pulled).

Where do you pull this shit from? Buyer pressure is unchanged until someone significant makes a move.

[Tzupy]

Without increased buyer pressure, we would have dropped to 101 by now.
Just small players for now, but enough to delay or maybe revert (too early to tell) the drop to 101.

[vokain]

Without increased buyer pressure, we would have dropped to 101 by now.
Just small players for now, but enough to delay or maybe revert (too early to tell) the drop to 101.

101 is cheap, 99 is expensive?