Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Manna]

But then, having knowledge of the size of deposits as they are made, they could have done much better than that with a little front running.

But Gox would not do that, it would be unethical.

and it would be insider trading, but of course we are in an nearly unregulated market, SEC cannot investigate in that case because Mt.Gox is in Japan. Or can they ?

[oda.krell]

If you are fine to withdraw via other measures (SEPA, JPY domestic, BTC), MtGox should be alright given you don't mind the premium. Only risk I would see is whether or not they are even liquid in light of the 10 million USD lacking.

Completely separate from customer funds, if Gox collected .5% in BTC fees and .5% in USD fees, and held them as such they would have

257143 BTC and $7,627,194

The question of the actual balances is how much trading they have done, and when?

What would we find in Schrödinger's Gox?

If Gox sold just 20% of their coin from fees as it came in then those balances look more like:

205,714 BTC and $9,152,626

If it was 50% then...

128,571 BTC and $11,440,775

80%...

51429 BTC and $13,728,924

I'll be that guy and say it:

That's still surprisingly little money.

If seen in context, I mean. So they earned something north of 10M, and we know about a 10M gap. Doesn't mean there aren't other debts ramped up (lawyers for the coinlab lawsuit, for example).

[prophetx]

But then, having knowledge of the size of deposits as they are made, they could have done much better than that with a little front running.

But Gox would not do that, it would be unethical.

and it would be insider trading, but of course we are in an nearly unregulated market, SEC cannot investigate in that case because Mt.Gox is in Japan. Or can they ?

here's my advice on the matter...

[rampantparanoia]

probably this thread could merge into an overall orderbook and wall tracker

bitstamp has more volume now and there is one 3000 btc bid wall left. if this falls.. good night bitcoin for a deeper fall

looks more like 2000 to me.

Good night, Bitcoin.

Good morning, Blightcoin.

1000 btc was probably already whale food (plankton) .. eaten away...

Wall still stands strong @ 1784

[Patel]

so who thinks we are heading for a correction or another bear trap now?

To be honest, looks like a bear trap.

If its not, then Bitstamp will probably dip down to the 110's because their is no buying power after that wall up.

[prophetx]

so who thinks we are heading for a correction or another bear trap now?

To be honest, looks like a bear trap.

If its not, then Bitstamp will probably dip down to the 110's because their is no buying power after that wall up.

usually when it is hard to tell i turn to fundamentals, i came to the conclusion that the rise in price was in part driven by asic demand in the 1st half of the year, people holding off on selling so they could put in their orders for asics and people putting more money into the system to put in orders.

internet was getting swamped with BFL ads

anyway i'm not going to go into my thoughts on this further, but people gotta get an roi at some point to pay for all that hardware they've been waiting up to 1 year for

[romerun]

last year the wedding news of mtgox and coinlab pumped btc to $250, it remains in 100 range even after divorced. This year the NEO/BEE thing is about to happen in cyprus, do you think it will have the similar effect ?

[derpinheimer]

last year the wedding news of mtgox and coinlab pumped btc to $250, it remains in 100 range even after divorced. This year the NEO/BEE thing is about to happen in cyprus, do you think it will have the similar effect ?

If people think it will, then it will. But does the event itself have any real effect on the price? No.

[S3052]

probably this thread could merge into an overall orderbook and wall tracker

bitstamp has more volume now and there is one 3000 btc bid wall left. if this falls.. good night bitcoin for a deeper fall

looks more like 2000 to me.

Good night, Bitcoin.

Good morning, Blightcoin.

1000 btc was probably already whale food (plankton) .. eaten away...

Wall still stands strong @ 1784

973 left...

[molecular]

last year the wedding news of mtgox and coinlab pumped btc to $250, it remains in 100 range even after divorced. This year the NEO/BEE thing is about to happen in cyprus, do you think it will have the similar effect ?

NEO/BEE? Anyone care to enlighten me?

[molecular]

probably this thread could merge into an overall orderbook and wall tracker

bitstamp has more volume now and there is one 3000 btc bid wall left. if this falls.. good night bitcoin for a deeper fall

looks more like 2000 to me.

Good night, Bitcoin.

Good morning, Blightcoin.

1000 btc was probably already whale food (plankton) .. eaten away...

Wall still stands strong @ 1784

973 left...

Let me guess... your newsletter yesterday evening said it might be profitable to sell some BTC for LTC?

If that was what caused the slight drop we experienced I doubt it was able to build enough downward momentum. Even the wall on bitstamp falling wouldn't result in a drop below $115. Buyback at $115 would be good profit, though.

I admit: I sold some coins because I'm such an emotional animal and experienced some angst the price might drop significantly. But really, I don't believe so.

[hlynur]

I admit: I sold some coins because I'm such an emotional animal and experienced some angst the price might drop significantly. But really, I don't believe so.

I recommend a subscription to adam's bitmovements newsletter.
It gives me a well-balanced sentiment of deep and omnipresent bullishness. almost feels like trading in Zen mode 

[molecular]

I admit: I sold some coins because I'm such an emotional animal and experienced some angst the price might drop significantly. But really, I don't believe so.

I recommend a subscription to adam's bitmovements newsletter.
It gives me a well-balanced sentiment of deep and omnipresent bullishness. almost feels like trading in Zen mode 

Remember when he was a bear? Wouldn't want that to happen right after I subscribe :-)

[S3052]

I admit: I sold some coins because I'm such an emotional animal and experienced some angst the price might drop significantly. But really, I don't believe so.

I recommend a subscription to adam's bitmovements newsletter.
It gives  me a well-balanced sentiment of deep and omnipresent bullishness. almost feels like trading in Zen mode 

this is why bitcoinbullbear avoids emotions

[hlynur]

Remember when he was a bear? Wouldn't want that to happen right after I subscribe :-)

when was that? I only know the 180-Adam.

[StarenseN]

Remember when he was a bear? Wouldn't want that to happen right after I subscribe :-)

when was that? I only know the 180-Adam.

That's because you subscribed on the board the day of the bubble LOL

[hlynur]

Remember when he was a bear? Wouldn't want that to happen right after I subscribe :-)

when was that? I only know the 180-Adam.

That's because you subscribed on the board the day of the bubble LOL

jup, i probably chose the shittiest point in time to get into the game. (bought first coins some weeks before I registered here and then it was exactly on my birthday when value crashed down to 50 )
got properly burnt several times during the aftermath but the dip in July helped to get back on track and by listening to the right people in this thread I even made a small profit.

*turnsonminelight*
well then, time to go deep down into adam's archive to find more evidence for bearish mutations in the past. I hope I don't get lost in there.  

this is why bitcoinbullbear avoids emotions

this "Zen-like" state is without any emotions but only a confidence that next rally/dump will come anyway and only some whales will decide if it goes ok with their charts. (perhaps i just got used to watch from the sideline and hold lately)
to be honest I find betting on sports games more predictable than development of btcvalue atm especially with the deformation of gox' withdrawal situation.

[Adrian-x]

... They are agents in the market and rather than complain about them it would be more productive to understand their influence by the evidence. So far I do not see a lot of that happening.

I see cause and effect and what I think is evidence, however I may be limited by my own judgment, (the mass less trolling aside) what evidence based influence, are you not seeing happening? 

[derpinheimer]

Manipulator battle!

[rampantparanoia]

Manipulator battle!