Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[wopwop]

Straight lines is how this world works

[ChartBuddy]

[JimboToronto]

Straight lines is how this world works

On a log graph.

[ChartBuddy]

[NewLiberty]

I am seeing a repeat of last year; And I doubt we will ever see prices around 50 again. I'd say we are on track to see 200 sometime in November.

when there's a bit too much bullish sentiment around..  i get this urge to start selling

Makes sense generally, though Bitcoin price is more rigid downward than upward.

[uyo]

I think you guys are looking too narrow, any day now we could see a blowup. The market is not very mature yet... $1.5B market cap is not much in all actuality. There really are many people out there with hundreds of millions of dollars that can severely shock the market. All it takes is someone like my friend's grandma (who has about $200 million dollars) to decide to put 10 percent into Bitcoin...and BAM! the price is driven over $1,000  instantly, shocks the whole community and market, and you will have wilder volatility than you could ever imagine.    We haven't seen nothing yet!   If you think April was volatile, just wait...   I'm sure it will happen again.

You're a little confused if you think 20 mill would take the price over 1000.

Our friendly whale who put in about 4 mill brought the price up from $1XX to $148.90. And thats with a few more million from other people. So, 8 mill -> $40

But 20 mill [and lets say, 40 mill] -> +900? Dont think so.

Of course if your friend grandma is braindead and clicks market order 20millUSD, then yes, around 10kUSD/BTC spike.

There must be a reason most mega-wealthy people have bothered to put a couple million into bitcoin.

LOL yeah! Well the people I know are of the kind of personality that would so something like that (buy $20 mil market order) just to see the affect and have fun with it haha. I'm sure they'd get a good laugh about it. Although she is the kind of person who has her assets in money markets and stuff, and is not so risk averse, so it might not happen anytime soon until she passes away or something and the inheritance is passed on to her children/grandchildren.

That would be a very dumb decision, since the investor could get much better price for most of the coins by buying it gradually and systematically. People acting like you've described never make big money or quickly lose it. They aren't doing haha while getting worse deal than they could have. Sorry, but your posts sound like childish nonsense.

[ChartBuddy]

[carpetbagger]

All it takes is someone like my friend's grandma (who has about $200 million dollars) to decide to put 10 percent into Bitcoin...and BAM!

[ChartBuddy]

[mccorvic]

when there's a bit too much bullish sentiment around..  i get this urge to start selling

If you make your decisions based on what a couple people post on one forum on the Internet then yes, please sell.

[ag@th0s]

Gox's new trading engine and all of the upcoming exchanges (ex, Coinsetter) are completely unnecessary given the total volume on all current exchanges.

What a magnificent engine this is that a trader can't even put a protective stop loss, not to mention a trailing stop!

Gox will still maintain the lead [...]

unless someone who has experience in exchange / brokerage business finally sets up a quality exchange. If this happens Gox and others will die in 6 months.

Don't you think that the only reason for BTC exchanges not to offer this facility is because they're all playing there own markets?  I can't understand it otherwise.  If your commission rate is based on volume and tied to price, you'd think they'd want you to trade often.  I can put a limit order on buys at Bitstamp but because I can't stop loss I don't do it overnight, so they lose those trades.  It doesn't make sense to me that they would turn down that margin unless that's not there business model.  Profit comes from manipulation - the commission fees are just gravy.

[thezerg]

Ok, I'll give it a shot:

let's say you wanted to buy a huge number of coins in the near term, but the ask volume means if you buy them all at once, the end price is more than you want to pay.  How do you shake some bitcoins loose from the ask tree?

Maybe, you buy ~1/2 of what you mean to buy in one fell swoop, and then put up some large bids and wait.

People sitting higher up on the ask side think "Hm, looks like the activity has peaked and may start to go down.  Nice looking bid wall going, guess I'll grab some quick profit." and proceed to sell to the exact same whale that started the whole thing off.

Which raises the question of exactly how many more coins does the whale actually want to buy and at what price.  I think if they have a target price north of $135, there are going to be some very unhappy bears soon.

(If my past prediction record is any indication, this means you should sell immediately.)

That's my guess; the whale(s) are buying about a million $ a week.  That's probably all that they trust on Gox at one time.  The pullback on Gox is pretty natural after the kind of runup we've seen, OR maybe it is just that arbitrage is finally happening.  This whale put up that wall at 135 because that was his average buy in price.  He put it near the money.  HE WANTED it to be eaten.  He WANTS coins. 

The whale is NOT supporting the price during the week.  He is happy to disappear for a week and hope the price goes down.  This is the behavior of a real long term investor...

Right now, I think it is very risky to sell.  But at the same time, there's lots of coins being mined and in theory these ASIC owners need to sell to recoup their investment.  There may be a large hidden ask at this price and this whale is only eating half the generated coins per week... but of course there are a lot of smaller investors adding demand.

What do you mean 135 was his average price? It wasnt. It was more like 132. A bid wall at the top of your market order, when moving the price that much, doesnt make sense. Doesnt mean it was manipulated or anything, just that he would have gotten sold into at 134, 133, and probably even 130.

You're probably right although it would depend on the ask curve at that time but it doesn't really matter.  I didn't bother to actually calculate it.  Point is that buy wall was right near where the trades happen.  You think that 134 or 133 would get hit, but the whale or more likely the whale's investment adviser must have thought that that was too low.  This person is likely getting a commission -- so its more important to him to acquire the coins than it is to save < 1% on the purchase.

It'll be interesting to see how long this purchasing strategy lasts...

[sukiho]

Gox's new trading engine and all of the upcoming exchanges (ex, Coinsetter) are completely unnecessary given the total volume on all current exchanges.

What a magnificent engine this is that a trader can't even put a protective stop loss, not to mention a trailing stop!

Gox will still maintain the lead [...]

unless someone who has experience in exchange / brokerage business finally sets up a quality exchange. If this happens Gox and others will die in 6 months.

Don't you think that the only reason for BTC exchanges not to offer this facility is because they're all playing there own markets?  I can't understand it otherwise.  If your commission rate is based on volume and tied to price, you'd think they'd want you to trade often.  I can put a limit order on buys at Bitstamp but because I can't stop loss I don't do it overnight, so they lose those trades.  It doesn't make sense to me that they would turn down that margin unless that's not there business model.  Profit comes from manipulation - the commission fees are just gravy.

I thought they didnt do it for legal reasons

[thezerg]

Gox's new trading engine and all of the upcoming exchanges (ex, Coinsetter) are completely unnecessary given the total volume on all current exchanges.

What a magnificent engine this is that a trader can't even put a protective stop loss, not to mention a trailing stop!

Gox will still maintain the lead [...]

unless someone who has experience in exchange / brokerage business finally sets up a quality exchange. If this happens Gox and others will die in 6 months.

Don't you think that the only reason for BTC exchanges not to offer this facility is because they're all playing there own markets?  I can't understand it otherwise.  If your commission rate is based on volume and tied to price, you'd think they'd want you to trade often.  I can put a limit order on buys at Bitstamp but because I can't stop loss I don't do it overnight, so they lose those trades.  It doesn't make sense to me that they would turn down that margin unless that's not there business model.  Profit comes from manipulation - the commission fees are just gravy.

I thought they didnt do it for legal reasons

Market's often very thin... and when it crashes it goes down amazingly fast.  What happens if Gox can't meet your stop loss?  Better to not offer the feature than to get sued over it.

[ag@th0s]

Gox's new trading engine and all of the upcoming exchanges (ex, Coinsetter) are completely unnecessary given the total volume on all current exchanges.

What a magnificent engine this is that a trader can't even put a protective stop loss, not to mention a trailing stop!

Gox will still maintain the lead [...]

unless someone who has experience in exchange / brokerage business finally sets up a quality exchange. If this happens Gox and others will die in 6 months.

Don't you think that the only reason for BTC exchanges not to offer this facility is because they're all playing there own markets?  I can't understand it otherwise.  If your commission rate is based on volume and tied to price, you'd think they'd want you to trade often.  I can put a limit order on buys at Bitstamp but because I can't stop loss I don't do it overnight, so they lose those trades.  It doesn't make sense to me that they would turn down that margin unless that's not there business model.  Profit comes from manipulation - the commission fees are just gravy.

I thought they didnt do it for legal reasons

Bitcoin/Legal - does not compute.

[ChartBuddy]

[xxjs]

Look like MtGox have stopped for some minutes - or is it I that is offline?

[xxjs]

Look like MtGox have stopped for some minutes - or is it I that is offline?

Ok BTC China - have a go at it.

[RationalSpeculator]

Gox's new trading engine and all of the upcoming exchanges (ex, Coinsetter) are completely unnecessary given the total volume on all current exchanges.

What a magnificent engine this is that a trader can't even put a protective stop loss, not to mention a trailing stop!

Gox will still maintain the lead [...]

unless someone who has experience in exchange / brokerage business finally sets up a quality exchange. If this happens Gox and others will die in 6 months.

Don't you think that the only reason for BTC exchanges not to offer this facility is because they're all playing there own markets?  I can't understand it otherwise.  If your commission rate is based on volume and tied to price, you'd think they'd want you to trade often.  I can put a limit order on buys at Bitstamp but because I can't stop loss I don't do it overnight, so they lose those trades.  It doesn't make sense to me that they would turn down that margin unless that's not there business model.  Profit comes from manipulation - the commission fees are just gravy.

I thought they didnt do it for legal reasons

Market's often very thin... and when it crashes it goes down amazingly fast.  What happens if Gox can't meet your stop loss?  Better to not offer the feature than to get sued over it.

If you offer a stop loss would you not simply put the coins for sale at the stop loss? How can they end up not being sold then?

[ChartBuddy]