Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[nanobrain]

Tasty day, this week's forecast?

Blood pressure pills all round

[jatajuta]

Tasty day, this week's forecast?

A lot of rich people with heart attack.

[theonewhowaskazu]

High volatility will be expected today.

Yea no shit, sdev be wack yo.

[ChartBuddy]

[bnjmnkent]

High volatility will be expected today.

Yea no shit, sdev be wack yo.

sdev?

[theonewhowaskazu]

High volatility will be expected today.

Yea no shit, sdev be wack yo.

sdev?

Standard Deviation.

[bnjmnkent]

High volatility will be expected today.

Yea no shit, sdev be wack yo.

sdev?

Standard Deviation.

Thank you.

[gizmoh]

I usually follow this trader signals, name is Enky
He usually put conservative forecast  but he now turns ubber bull predicting for a possible $3,600 top  

http://btctrading.wordpress.com/author/enky1974/

Bull! Bull! Bull! BUY BUY BUY! Yes i know you are reading this all the time on many bitcoin related forums where there is the perma-bull or his alter ego “the perma-bearish guy” crying all the time that we are in a bubble.
Well, personally i consider a stock or whatever you want in a bubble when it is very far away from a long term regression line. What does it mean “very far away”? When the observation  is outside a statistically significant “prediction interval”. In statistical inference, specifically predictive inference, a prediction interval is an estimate of an interval in which future observations will fall, with a certain probability, given what has already been observed. Prediction intervals are often used in regression analisys like the one i’m presenting here.

I drew a straight line on the graph represents the linear regression of the average prices recorded since August 2010. I added a prediction interval represented by the two lines above and below the linear regression. Bitcoin is in a  price bubble whenever it goes above the upper deviation, on the contrary we can talk about prices significantly lower when we are under the line of the lower deviation, but so far it never happened for bitcoin to be so undervalued.

I’ve noticed that most of the time, important price swing are similar in size if we use a logarithmic scale to measure them, i have shown in the  logarithmic graph the major movements of similar size and i used them to project what could be the next important long term top.

It may be noted that the next top might reach the $3600 price level, just above the current forecast that gives us the second deviation line of the linear regression, a perfect top in a buying climax situation which usually creates the market condition for a rapid fall in the price. At the moment to enter “bubble territory” we need to go above the 1100-1200$ price zone, just above the upper deviation line i’ve plotted on the chart. It is interesting also to note that the April 2013 top at 266$ has been under the upper deviation line while the 2011 top at 32$ has been well above and a true bubble which was followed by a bear market that has brought prices down to $ 2 in November 2011.

 

Because this market has been stronger then expected i revised my monthly range forecast to:

Bitstamp: 450$ – 750$
BTC-e: 430$ – 770$
BTCchina: 3270 CNY – 5600 CNY
Strong support is always on the VWAP now at 320$-330$ or 2400 CNY.

[nanobrain]

Guys i usually follow this trader signals, name is Enky
He usually put conservative forecast  but he now turns ubber bull predicting for a possible $3,600 top   

http://btctrading.wordpress.com/author/enky1974/

Go back some considerable number of pages you'll find this has already been commented on...folks getting priapic 

[jatajuta]

Predictions these days...

[bito]

Does anyone know if it takes just as long to get goxbux out of gox/AUD?

is it only Us dollars which are the problem? or does that extend to Australian goxbucks too?

I have a friend who initiated his withdrawal about 7 weeks ago, AUD in his account to an Australian bank.

I told him to just buy back in 2 weeks ago but he really needs the cash.

Does anyone have any knowledge of how long swift transfers take from stamp to AU?

And in case anyone is thinking, my friend is not me, I am 100% in BTC.

[pera]

Everything I read is literally bullshit, still nobody can explain why we went from 3000 to 7000 in 26hs

[Boxman90]

Everything I read is literally bullshit, still nobody can explain why we went from 3000 to 7000 in 26hs

Bots and manipulation by fraudulent chinese exchange.

Hey it's an explanataion you don't have to like it.

[adamstgBit]

Everything I read is literally bullshit, still nobody can explain why we went from 3000 to 7000 in 26hs

its funny i predicted this exact market behavior would happen, months ago.

i should dig up that post..

i call it " the dash for digital cash "


you have to understand that USD can still buy things and their are early adopts.... but Bitcoin is the future and Fiat isn't going to last forever.

[pera]

Everything I read is literally bullshit, still nobody can explain why we went from 3000 to 7000 in 26hs

its funny i predicted this exact market behavior would happen, months ago.

i should dig up that post..

i call it " the dash for digital cash "


you have to understand that USD can still buy things and their are early adopts....

that's your explanation?

[mvidetto]

It seems like the US market is overbought already and following China.  Any downturn there and gg... $200 coins...

[adamstgBit]

Everything I read is literally bullshit, still nobody can explain why we went from 3000 to 7000 in 26hs

its funny i predicted this exact market behavior would happen, months ago.

i should dig up that post..

i call it " the dash for digital cash "


you have to understand that USD can still buy things and their are early adopts....

that's your explanation?

yes.

but i edited it to add more hints...

"
you have to understand that USD can still buy things and their are early adopts.... but Bitcoin is the future and Fiat isn't going to last forever.
"

[gizmoh]

Everything I read is literally bullshit, still nobody can explain why we went from 3000 to 7000 in 26hs

There lives 1 billion chinese my bear friend. consider 0.0001% knows and buy bitcoin just to get rich quick. There lies the explanation to this mania.

[sveetsnelda]

Everything I read is literally bullshit, still nobody can explain why we went from 3000 to 7000 in 26hs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jh4Mpgbi4A

[hyphymikey]

Man do I regret selling 250 coins in the last peak .

Putting half of what is left in a paper wallet now, and going long on a BFX margin with the rest.