Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[600watt]

THIS TIME IT´S DIFFERENT !!!


i have proof ! i sold some coins yesterday night.

to my complete surprise the price hasn´t moved since. usually price jumps up big after i sold. (and crashes after i bought)

so this time it´s different! new paradigm! the game has changed ! SELLBUYHOLDBUYHOLDSELL !

[Coinseeker]

So many here wishes and feels that the crash is coming. Well sry to inform you guys, but what you wish or feel has very little or nothing to do with the price today or tomorrow. Price is going up, because people have not stopped buying. In fact people are buying shitloads of coins every day and if you sell to them, there's a big possibility that you have to buy back at loss if you want be in the train when we hit 1000, 2000 and maybe even 3000.

Actually, what people "wish or feel" is a really good indicator.  It's called sentiment and by itself is not a fool proof indicator but combined with good TA can tell you a lot about future movements. I think we're going down.  Not an April crash but just something reasonable and sustainable.  $400-$500's I'd say.  Which is still a big win for Bitcoin.

Maybe, but what people generally wish or feel has very little to do with what people write here in this forum. We're clearly in "bubble-mode" and we are not going to stay here under important support and then just go lower. We're going to see fight for $1000 and there's a big possibility that it will break rather easily which will shift a new gear to this rally once again.

I think this forum has little to do with anything.  Just because it doesn't auto-refresh, doesn't mean it's not still a trollbox.  Just saying.  People talk whatever is in their best interest.  Logic and rational thought be damned.    

[windjc]

So many here wishes and feels that the crash is coming. Well sry to inform you guys, but what you wish or feel has very little or nothing to do with the price today or tomorrow. Price is going up, because people have not stopped buying. In fact people are buying shitloads of coins every day and if you sell to them, there's a big possibility that you have to buy back at loss if you want be in the train when we hit 1000, 2000 and maybe even 3000.

Actually, what people "wish or feel" is a really good indicator.  It's called sentiment and by itself is not a fool proof indicator but combined with good TA can tell you a lot about future movements. I think we're going down.  Not an April crash but just something reasonable and sustainable.  $400-$500's I'd say.  Which is still a big win for Bitcoin.

Maybe, but what people generally wish or feel has very little to do with what people write here in this forum. We're clearly in "bubble-mode" and we are not going to stay here under important support and then just go lower. We're going to see fight for $1000 and there's a big possibility that it will break rather easily which will shift a new gear to this rally once again.

I agree. The holiday week in the US changes things a bit, but if this stays flat for awhile, then that is going to be bullish.

The bears seem to make two arguments. The first, that since we went up and back down 3 times since 2011, that we are going to do the same thing here. But none of the technicals right now look like they those other times. They just don't add up.  The second argument is more of a wish, they don't want it to go higher then crash and burn and tarnish bitcoin. But that's just part of it. Bitcoin has survived much worse than a another potential crash/black eye.

[Davyd05]

They said : "bitcoin went too high too fast, big bubble danger, stay away"

That's pretty bearish, especially if you believe China has been leading this huge rally to near $1k.  Hmm...not going to say it's time to sell but this certainly isn't a good entry point.  

Bitcoin is currently not sustained by people who are influenced by mainstream media. Even in China. So I don't see this as bearish, it only reflects where we are at right now. The media is right to warn people, but the intelligent person knows that the media more or less doesn't have a clue.

Is this a serious comment?  Where do you think new money learns about Bitcoin?  This certainly isn't your earliest adopters buying BTC up to $900.  

The vast majority of our friends (not techies or by any means "early adopters") were not interested in investing at $60, they were bored of us and our Bitcoin rambling.

Now that we're at $800 and Bitcoin is in the media, they are desperate to buy. If they all do, we will shoot up to $2000 or $3000 -- I absolutely agree with the bulls. However, be careful what you wish for. We may well crash in a blaze of glory, and most will be burned. TBH I have much higher hopes for bitcoin. Something that appreciates more sensibly  year-on-year is much more valuable to all of us. $3000+ by the end of next year, for example would be very exciting. $500 and restrictive BTC regulation in China -- not so much.

A certain someone called a 2300 top with a 500-600 range bottom might be lower can't remember the exact numbers.. I can't know if we're overbought but it feels that way a bit, this kiddie coaster as I call it is growing in to a calmer period since..october, with a fairly large but stable window of 770-850...I think a combination of arbitrage account setups and new money coming soon has the market holding its breath..

[BitPirate]

They said : "bitcoin went too high too fast, big bubble danger, stay away"

That's pretty bearish, especially if you believe China has been leading this huge rally to near $1k.  Hmm...not going to say it's time to sell but this certainly isn't a good entry point.  

Bitcoin is currently not sustained by people who are influenced by mainstream media. Even in China. So I don't see this as bearish, it only reflects where we are at right now. The media is right to warn people, but the intelligent person knows that the media more or less doesn't have a clue.

Is this a serious comment?  Where do you think new money learns about Bitcoin?  This certainly isn't your earliest adopters buying BTC up to $900.  

The vast majority of our friends (not techies or by any means "early adopters") were not interested in investing at $60, they were bored of us and our Bitcoin rambling.

Now that we're at $800 and Bitcoin is in the media, they are desperate to buy. If they all do, we will shoot up to $2000 or $3000 -- I absolutely agree with the bulls. However, be careful what you wish for. We may well crash in a blaze of glory, and most will be burned. TBH I have much higher hopes for bitcoin. Something that appreciates more sensibly  year-on-year is much more valuable to all of us. $3000+ by the end of next year, for example would be very exciting. $500 and restrictive BTC regulation in China -- not so much.

Don't you see how you confuse your hopes with your predicts of future? Lets first decide where the price might go and then talk is't a good or bad thing for bitcoin. These two are clearly different things.

Sure, $3000 then $50. Most will cash out at the latter.

Or should we paint an alternative picture?

Remember, the pictures are painted by the big holders, not (only) the new money coming in.

[kurious]

Yes, this warning is good for bitcoin and for the chinese. It's maybe short term bearish. I didn't witness the mania in China and the public concerned by this mania so I cannot judge.

It crossed Y1,000 in Oct 19, and (almost) hit Y7,000 in Nov 19.

+600% in one month, followed by a -50% initial reaction and now struggling to consolidate high in 5,000s.

So many here wishes and feels that the crash is coming. Well sry to inform you guys, but what you wish or feel has very little or nothing to do with the price today or tomorrow. Price is going up, because people have not stopped buying. In fact people are buying shitloads of coins every day and if you sell to them, there's a big possibility that you have to buy back at loss if you want be in the train when we hit 1000, 2000 and maybe even 3000.

Now this reeks of desperation. I feel ( )that in the end the bears are right after all. They can sit on both the fiat gains and the bitcoin gains, whereas the bulls will rush to the exits when we go south because their portfolio is all-in and it is consuming them.

It takes roughly the same amount of new money entering in, to raise the price from $200 to $800 than it takes from $800 to $1400. In the October runup, we had undervalued starting point, stellar news and China mania. For December, we have "to the moon" from people who have no fiat in their bank account that could possibly lift it to(wards) the moon, short-term overvaluation, and an overhang of pending sales from rational investors who diversify as price rises.

You dream of exponential new money flowing in. Yeah, long term you are right. Just hold onto your coins while we dig deeper  

He has a point - the diehard bulls are all in, waiting for $1000. Anyone speculating has both fiat and coins, and will play both sides.  New money needs to be very big to climb up the price wall in front.   The support is not under the BTC price it looks heavier at price points above.  

I think long term it's up - but it will be a bumpy ride and big speculators will do better than diehard bulls if they are clever (which, one has to assume, they are).

[Joenaes]

https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc1/1450876_577402505662999_1819292537_n.jpg

[niothor]

They said : "bitcoin went too high too fast, big bubble danger, stay away"

That's pretty bearish, especially if you believe China has been leading this huge rally to near $1k.  Hmm...not going to say it's time to sell but this certainly isn't a good entry point.  

Bitcoin is currently not sustained by people who are influenced by mainstream media. Even in China. So I don't see this as bearish, it only reflects where we are at right now. The media is right to warn people, but the intelligent person knows that the media more or less doesn't have a clue.

Is this a serious comment?  Where do you think new money learns about Bitcoin?  This certainly isn't your earliest adopters buying BTC up to $900.  

The vast majority of our friends (not techies or by any means "early adopters") were not interested in investing at $60, they were bored of us and our Bitcoin rambling.

Now that we're at $800 and Bitcoin is in the media, they are desperate to buy. If they all do, we will shoot up to $2000 or $3000 -- I absolutely agree with the bulls. However, be careful what you wish for. We may well crash in a blaze of glory, and most will be burned. TBH I have much higher hopes for bitcoin. Something that appreciates more sensibly  year-on-year is much more valuable to all of us. $3000+ by the end of next year, for example would be very exciting. $500 and restrictive BTC regulation in China -- not so much.

Don't you see how you confuse your hopes with your predicts of future? Lets first decide where the price might go and then talk is't a good or bad thing for bitcoin. These two are clearly different things.

Sure, $3000 then $50. Most will cash out at the latter.

Or should we paint an alternative picture?

Remember, the pictures are painted by the big holders, not (only) the new money coming in.

How about 50$ and then 3000$.
With me buying at 50 and selling at 3000.
I'm offering you 1btc if the picture is oil based.

[MahaRamana]

Is this a serious comment?  Where do you think new money learns about Bitcoin?  This certainly isn't your earliest adopters buying BTC up to $900. 

They might learn about it in the media, but they will create their own opinion about it.

Earliest adopters not - but last adopters ?

There is not even 10 ridiculous billion of dollars in bitcoin...

[EuroTrash]

Well it's undeniable that this is the first Monday that China has stopped pumping.

And - not that TA matters that much, but anybody else sees a pennant on the 15 min 2 hour chart right now?

EDIT: corrected

[gandhibt]

Yes, this warning is good for bitcoin and for the chinese. It's maybe short term bearish. I didn't witness the mania in China and the public concerned by this mania so I cannot judge.

It crossed Y1,000 in Oct 19, and (almost) hit Y7,000 in Nov 19.

+600% in one month, followed by a -50% initial reaction and now struggling to consolidate high in 5,000s.

So many here wishes and feels that the crash is coming. Well sry to inform you guys, but what you wish or feel has very little or nothing to do with the price today or tomorrow. Price is going up, because people have not stopped buying. In fact people are buying shitloads of coins every day and if you sell to them, there's a big possibility that you have to buy back at loss if you want be in the train when we hit 1000, 2000 and maybe even 3000.

Now this reeks of desperation. I feel ( )that in the end the bears are right after all. They can sit on both the fiat gains and the bitcoin gains, whereas the bulls will rush to the exits when we go south because their portfolio is all-in and it is consuming them.

It takes roughly the same amount of new money entering in, to raise the price from $200 to $800 than it takes from $800 to $1400. In the October runup, we had undervalued starting point, stellar news and China mania. For December, we have "to the moon" from people who have no fiat in their bank account that could possibly lift it to(wards) the moon, short-term overvaluation, and an overhang of pending sales from rational investors who diversify as price rises.

You dream of exponential new money flowing in. Yeah, long term you are right. Just hold onto your coins while we dig deeper  

You keep trying I have very clear plan if we go south and there's no panic even if I have to wake up middle of the night after smoking weed all evening... I gave you clear reason for my argument: People have not stopped buying and If you ask your whale friends, most of them are holding like mofo so... (or buying more).

Keep dreaming sub $500, ofc there's a possibility for that also and I say after: "I was wrong", but the possibility of rise is just bigger.

I'm not here rambling to maximize my profit (like you are). I'm gandhi.

[UnDerDoG81]

Too many people are waiting till the price drops. So the price never drops. And also never gets up. If you look at the order book on bitstamp, there are order with middle range five figures at 770$. And nobody is buying because they hope the price will go down. We will last in the 800´s forever  

I sold at 820$ yesterday, bought back at 800$... You can play this game since 2 days. But the fees are ruining it. As I made 340$ with 17 coins and the price difference of 20$, they charged 140$ on fees. 200$ win is may be not bad but the risk is very high that something happens after you sold.

[Coinseeker]

Is this a serious comment?  Where do you think new money learns about Bitcoin?  This certainly isn't your earliest adopters buying BTC up to $900. 

They might learn about it in the media, but they will create their own opinion about it.

Earliest adopters not - but last adopters ?

There is not even 10 ridiculous billion of dollars in bitcoin...

It's good to see you backtracking from that ridiculous comment. 

[rpietila]

Well it's undeniable that this is the first Monday that China has stopped pumping.

China is still 6.5% higher than west. At that rate there is some but not much flow. I expect it to close totally this week, which means that China demand no more supports western orderbooks. Then we'll see how much new western money can influence the price.

We need 5 times more sustained fiat inflow, to go on from here, compared to 2 months ago. The exponential trend shows that, on average, the money inflow grows only 50% in that period of time.

[San1ty]

Too many people are waiting till the price drops. So the price never drops. And also never gets up. If you look at the order book on bitstamp, there are order with middle range five figures at 770$. And nobody is buying because they hope the price will go down. We will last in the 800´s forever  

I sold at 820$ yesterday, bought back at 800$... You can play this game since 2 days. But the fees are ruining it. As I made 340$ with 17 coins and the price difference of 20$, they charged 140$ on fees. 200$ win is may be not bad but the risk is very high that something happens after you sold.

How do you have such a high fee? To trade about 20 BTC I pay a MAXIMUM of 30 Dollars...

[UnDerDoG81]

Too many people are waiting till the price drops. So the price never drops. And also never gets up. If you look at the order book on bitstamp, there are order with middle range five figures at 770$. And nobody is buying because they hope the price will go down. We will last in the 800´s forever  

I sold at 820$ yesterday, bought back at 800$... You can play this game since 2 days. But the fees are ruining it. As I made 340$ with 17 coins and the price difference of 20$, they charged 140$ on fees. 200$ win is may be not bad but the risk is very high that something happens after you sold.

How do you have such a high fee? To trade about 20 BTC I pay a MAXIMUM of 30 Dollars...

I trade on stamp and they charge me 70$ for selling and 70$ for buying. Fee´s are 0,5% even though on the landing page of Bitstamp they say 0,2%.

Where do you trade? I need some alternative.

[Shak]

Too many people are waiting till the price drops. So the price never drops. And also never gets up. If you look at the order book on bitstamp, there are order with middle range five figures at 770$. And nobody is buying because they hope the price will go down. We will last in the 800´s forever  

I sold at 820$ yesterday, bought back at 800$... You can play this game since 2 days. But the fees are ruining it. As I made 340$ with 17 coins and the price difference of 20$, they charged 140$ on fees. 200$ win is may be not bad but the risk is very high that something happens after you sold.

How do you have such a high fee? To trade about 20 BTC I pay a MAXIMUM of 30 Dollars...

I trade on stamp and they charge me 70$ for selling and 70$ for buying. Fee´s are 0,5% even though on the landing page of Bitstamp they say 0,2%.

Where do you trade? I need some alternative.

Bullshit-Bingo

Code:

Fee %	30 days USD volume
0.50%	< $500
0.48%	< $1,000
0.46%	< $2,000
0.44%	< $4,000
0.42%	< $6,500
0.40%	< $10,000
0.38%	< $15,000
0.36%	< $20,000
0.34%	< $25,000
0.32%	< $37,500
0.30%	< $50,000
0.28%	< $62,500
0.26%	< $75,000
0.24%	< $100,000
0.22%	< $150,000
0.20%	> $150,000 

[rpietila]

I'm not here rambling to maximize my profit (like you are). I'm gandhi.

Haha, fail. Gandhi would never pay attention to ramblers.

[UnDerDoG81]

Too many people are waiting till the price drops. So the price never drops. And also never gets up. If you look at the order book on bitstamp, there are order with middle range five figures at 770$. And nobody is buying because they hope the price will go down. We will last in the 800´s forever  

I sold at 820$ yesterday, bought back at 800$... You can play this game since 2 days. But the fees are ruining it. As I made 340$ with 17 coins and the price difference of 20$, they charged 140$ on fees. 200$ win is may be not bad but the risk is very high that something happens after you sold.

How do you have such a high fee? To trade about 20 BTC I pay a MAXIMUM of 30 Dollars...

I trade on stamp and they charge me 70$ for selling and 70$ for buying. Fee´s are 0,5% even though on the landing page of Bitstamp they say 0,2%.

Where do you trade? I need some alternative.

Bullshit-Bingo

Code:

Fee %	30 days USD volume
0.50%	< $500
0.48%	< $1,000
0.46%	< $2,000
0.44%	< $4,000
0.42%	< $6,500
0.40%	< $10,000
0.38%	< $15,000
0.36%	< $20,000
0.34%	< $25,000
0.32%	< $37,500
0.30%	< $50,000
0.28%	< $62,500
0.26%	< $75,000
0.24%	< $100,000
0.22%	< $150,000
0.20%	> $150,000 

Ok thanks for info. So I need to trade six figures ^^

[San1ty]

Too many people are waiting till the price drops. So the price never drops. And also never gets up. If you look at the order book on bitstamp, there are order with middle range five figures at 770$. And nobody is buying because they hope the price will go down. We will last in the 800´s forever  

I sold at 820$ yesterday, bought back at 800$... You can play this game since 2 days. But the fees are ruining it. As I made 340$ with 17 coins and the price difference of 20$, they charged 140$ on fees. 200$ win is may be not bad but the risk is very high that something happens after you sold.

How do you have such a high fee? To trade about 20 BTC I pay a MAXIMUM of 30 Dollars...

I trade on stamp and they charge me 70$ for selling and 70$ for buying. Fee´s are 0,5% even though on the landing page of Bitstamp they say 0,2%.

Where do you trade? I need some alternative.

Bullshit-Bingo

Code:

Fee %	30 days USD volume
0.50%	< $500
0.48%	< $1,000
0.46%	< $2,000
0.44%	< $4,000
0.42%	< $6,500
0.40%	< $10,000
0.38%	< $15,000
0.36%	< $20,000
0.34%	< $25,000
0.32%	< $37,500
0.30%	< $50,000
0.28%	< $62,500
0.26%	< $75,000
0.24%	< $100,000
0.22%	< $150,000
0.20%	> $150,000 

I'm at bitstamp and I'm at the 0.2% ratio.

If you trade 20 BTC (16000 USD) Your fee should be:
32 USD To Buy or Sell...

You just haven't traded enough yet.