Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Voodah]

TA is taking in all available info and predicting price movement

weekend dips myth, triangles myth, news, market sentiment, most probable early adopt positions etc....

Really? I was working under the impression the Wikipedia definition was more or less correct:


"In finance, technical analysis is a security analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. [...] Technical analysis is frequently contrasted with fundamental analysis, the study of economic factors that influence the way investors price financial markets. Technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all such trends before investors are aware of them. Uncovering those trends is what technical indicators are designed to do, imperfect as they may be." (emphasis mine)

Exactly. It's the other way around.

Events affect price instantaneously. TA comes after.

By visualizing all those events in previous price fluctuations, we are able to identify them/their effect in the form of patterns.

When recognizing a triangle or cup and handle or whatever, we are simply acknowledging a common behavior pattern and using it's past performance in combination with the current market sentiment to extrapolate into the future.

[spooderman]

lol sorry about the weird quoting

Don't you run something called "bitmovements"?

yes.

I think i have a solid understanding about how markets work.
and I like to pretend i know where price is going.
if you subscribed and read my commentary on recent moves & my predictions, maybe you'd understand where i'm coming from .

people place value on my thoughs on the market I love it!

Thing is your predictions come with a high chance of becoming self fulfilling prophecies given that your thread is the presumably the most active thread on the official BTC forum.

[molecular]

It is always shocking to see how easy the price can be manipulated. Without any volume the price went up 50$ in minutes. As the price was at 840$ somebody bought 13 coins for 895$ each and bang there we are now at 884$...

You're looking at the wrong exchange. The volume on the runup was huge on btcchina. Also: we had just come down through that area, so asks were weak.

[StarenseN]

all i'm saying is TA is BS

only an all knowing god can predict the future.

Quote of the year.

[adamstgBit]

lol sorry about the weird quoting

Don't you run something called "bitmovements"?

yes.

I think i have a solid understanding about how markets work.
and I like to pretend i know where price is going.
if you subscribed and read my commentary on recent moves & my predictions, maybe you'd understand where i'm coming from .

people place value on my thoughs on the market I love it!

Thing is your predictions come with a high chance of becoming self fulfilling prophecies given that your thread is the presumably the most active thread on the official BTC forum.

if you honestly believe that, subscribe to bitmovements!  

[macsga]

all i'm saying is TA is BS

only an all knowing god can predict the future.

Quote of the year.

+1

No certainty on chaotic systems.

[spooderman]

lol sorry about the weird quoting

Don't you run something called "bitmovements"?

yes.

I think i have a solid understanding about how markets work.
and I like to pretend i know where price is going.
if you subscribed and read my commentary on recent moves & my predictions, maybe you'd understand where i'm coming from .

people place value on my thoughs on the market I love it!

Thing is your predictions come with a high chance of becoming self fulfilling prophecies given that your thread is the presumably the most active thread on the official BTC forum.

if you honestly believe that, subscribe to bitmovements!  

I don't need to. They just tip the balance in the favor of whatever it is you say. Just like a news article etc.

Also, I don't trade, I'm long baby 

Traded once, lost 5 btc, traded again made 4 back. Never traded again.

[Voodah]

It is always shocking to see how easy the price can be manipulated. Without any volume the price went up 50$ in minutes. As the price was at 840$ somebody bought 13 coins for 895$ each and bang there we are now at 884$...

You're looking at the wrong exchange. The volume on the runup was huge on btcchina. Also: we had just come down through that area, so asks are weak.

Indeed. People keep forgetting we're now working with a lot more exchanges, and how much the volumes have changed:

btcchina       64392.620
mtgox           14323.340
bitstamp        11403.840
btce             11393.550

check out these other two chinese ones which are seldom mentioned:

okcoin          42990.150
fxbtc            21509.410

[molecular]

all i'm saying is TA is BS

only an all knowing god can predict the future.

TA works to an extent because people think it works and act accordingly.

Oh and also: even an all-knowing god might not be able to predict the future. If he could, why would he even run the world. Makes no sense.

[spooderman]

all i'm saying is TA is BS

only an all knowing god can predict the future.

TA works to an extent because people think it works and act accordingly.

Oh and also: even an all-knowing god might not be able to predict the future. If he could, why would he even run the world. Makes no sense.

Exactly. If we say BTC correlates with ice cream sales, then it will!

all i'm saying is TA is BS

only an all knowing god can predict the future.

Quote of the year.

+1

No certainty on chaotic systems.

How can you be certain of this?

[gandhibt]

all i'm saying is TA is BS

only an all knowing god can predict the future.

TA works to an extent because people think it works and act accordingly.

Oh and also: even an all-knowing god might not be able to predict the future. If he could, why would he even run the world. Makes no sense.

Exactly. If we say BTC correlates with ice cream sales, then it will!

all i'm saying is TA is BS

only an all knowing god can predict the future.

Quote of the year.

+1

No certainty on chaotic systems.

How can you be certain of this?

Well you can't, but the paradox is only in our heads, in our language, but not in our world. (ofc you can't be sure of this either)

[molecular]

It is always shocking to see how easy the price can be manipulated. Without any volume the price went up 50$ in minutes. As the price was at 840$ somebody bought 13 coins for 895$ each and bang there we are now at 884$...

You're looking at the wrong exchange. The volume on the runup was huge on btcchina. Also: we had just come down through that area, so asks are weak.

Indeed. People keep forgetting we're now working with a lot more exchanges, and how much the volumes have changed:

btcchina       64392.620
mtgox           14323.340
bitstamp        11403.840
btce             11393.550

check out these other two chinese ones which are seldom mentioned:

okcoin          42990.150
fxbtc            21509.410

wow! Those 3 china-based exchanges account for 147,000 BTC volume? That's 10 times gox!

I know, I know... no fees. Maybe time for the Western exchanges to lower fees, too?

What timeframe are those volume numbers?

[windjc]

Did bitcoin REALLY survive this weekend with practically no price dip?

I can't believe this. Where is the bear market??!!  Is it coming on Monday?

[mb300sd]

Did bitcoin REALLY survive this weekend with practically no price dip?

I can't believe this. Where is the bear market??!!  Is it coming on Monday?

Come monday...

CHOO CHOO TO THE MOON MOTHERFUCKERS

[molecular]

Did bitcoin REALLY survive this weekend with practically no price dip?

I can't believe this. Where is the bear market??!!  Is it coming on Monday?

You might have been listening to the wrong people.

[ChartBuddy]

[Voodah]

Oh and also: even an all-knowing god might not be able to predict the future. If he could, why would he even run the world. Makes no sense.

Now that's worth a whole new thread.

But I will simply say no. You're thinking in human terms. I might argue an all-knowing god would not be subjected to the Time dimension.

Furthermore, if the string theory "confirmation" that propped up last week turns out to be valid, we could eventually in a very remote and distant future all be looking into a single-dimensional universe for our TA (where strings are vibrating and things are actually happening and then being "echoed" in a holographic manner to our 10-dimensional universe, which would be just a projection of said one-dimensional universe).

But yeah, best leave it there......

[manfred]

It is always shocking to see how easy the price can be manipulated. Without any volume the price went up 50$ in minutes. As the price was at 840$ somebody bought 13 coins for 895$ each and bang there we are now at 884$...

You're looking at the wrong exchange. The volume on the runup was huge on btcchina. Also: we had just come down through that area, so asks are weak.

Indeed. People keep forgetting we're now working with a lot more exchanges, and how much the volumes have changed:

btcchina       64392.620
mtgox           14323.340
bitstamp        11403.840
btce             11393.550

check out these other two chinese ones which are seldom mentioned:

okcoin          42990.150
fxbtc            21509.410

wow! Those 3 china-based exchanges hav 147,000 BTC volume? That's 10 times gox!

I know, I know... no fees. Maybe time for the Western exchanges to lower fees, too?

What timeframe are those volume numbers?

You forgot the 3rd largest Chinese exchange btctrade http://www.btctrade.com/
BTCTrade has a 24h volume of 23103  and not to forget Okcoin has a  5,799,141 litecoin 24h volume aswell.

[adamstgBit]

all i'm saying is TA is BS

only an all knowing god can predict the future.

TA works to an extent because people think it works and act accordingly.

Oh and also: even an all-knowing god might not be able to predict the future. If he could, why would he even run the world. Makes no sense.

there is no such thing as an all knowing god
our god is the universe
he is completely oblivious of our existence because in his eyes our universe is a small sub atomic particle in his body.

now you know the secret.


 

[molecular]

It is always shocking to see how easy the price can be manipulated. Without any volume the price went up 50$ in minutes. As the price was at 840$ somebody bought 13 coins for 895$ each and bang there we are now at 884$...

That why I - incorrectly - call it penny stock. A few big players can totally control this with a penny.

Imagine when governments get in. They can easily melk the folks with manipulating the prices. I´m really not sure if Bitcoin is really the future...

Ok they do the same with FIAT and Gold but everybody was saying BTC cant ever get controlled by banks and governments. I dont think so...

I do think so. FIAT is controlled directly by the CBs and gold by a fake paper market they can short-sell to their pleasure in and give people fiat instead of gold... an absolute joke. Something like this being established is quite unlikely in XBT, because it's easy to secure and transact in itself, so there is really not a good reason to buy paper-XBT instead of the real thing. Governments directly manipulating gox/btcchina/... is out of the question in my mind. There's only so many coins and they need to actually have them (or the cooperation of gox to be able to sell coins they don't have).