Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[arepo]

6h and 4h StochRSI looks bad, altho not sure how good is it for predicting the future

i'm not sure either. they look bad because what just happened was bad. there was prior warning though.

[1714775824]

1714775824

[1714775824]

1714775824

[1714775824]

1714775824

[FenixRD]

Anyone knows about that new china taobao crypto ban? Could it be the cause?

no.

guys... this is what happens when we go parabolic above a trendline after a bubble. the same thing happened in April-May.

i hope all of the newer traders who were confused as to why i was unsettled by this weekends rally, and the multiple warnings of "we'll pay for this later" understand now.

we will pay ?? to hell with that, it is great show, popcorn ready

+1 

haha you're obviously not a merchant trying to actually use bitcoin as a currency, or anything like that

like i said, sometimes i believe the crap about speculators being good for a market, but then again this bullshit happens with frightening regularity...

I've been wondering about this. It's not the conventional wisdom, but (absent constantly-updating LED price stickers or some unsettling thing like that) is it not possible, if you are a merchant, or a user, trading for goods that are fairly normal (bread, eggs, milk, detergent, etc.) to just kinda price things at the trendline, and not give a shit about the instantaneous cost? Basically, price things in BTC, along a trend. So, for me, with my analysis, despite all this, let's say we plot with a trend using a weighting system that accounts for good and bad news, weekend movements, etc. for maybe a 9-day weighting period. So, maybe the present FMV of 1.0 BTC is just $900. So, price everything accordingly and don't care about the movement. Even in USD, gasoline fluctates about almost as much as BTC does. You just don't have people waiting to buy gas for the right rate, or rates flipping around on the signs several times per second. I feel like it is possible.

[arepo]

Arepo can I ask in all seriousness... do you have a technical term for this kind of pattern?

it is sinusoidal. not necessary a technical name from the trading world, but it can be modeled with the sine function. why do you ask? it is rather pretty isn't it?

[FenixRD]

do you have a technical term for this kind of pattern?

I would call it the bitch-slap pattern.

Whipsaw.

[wachtwoord]

i'm not sure either. they look bad because what just happened was bad.

Nothing bad happened sir.

[arepo]

6h and 4h StochRSI looks bad, altho not sure how good is it for predicting the future

No, it Looks good.Because we are oversold now and buying should beginn

not after all of that time spent in the overbought zone. we'll likely "double-dip". generally speaking, a crossover of the midline is also an important signal for oscillators.

[medialab101]

Anyone knows about that new china taobao crypto ban? Could it be the cause?

no.

guys... this is what happens when we go parabolic above a trendline after a bubble. the same thing happened in April-May.

i hope all of the newer traders who were confused as to why i was unsettled by this weekends rally, and the multiple warnings of "we'll pay for this later" understand now.

we will pay ?? to hell with that, it is great show, popcorn ready

+1 

haha you're obviously not a merchant trying to actually use bitcoin as a currency, or anything like that

like i said, sometimes i believe the crap about speculators being good for a market, but then again this bullshit happens with frightening regularity...

Arepo can I ask in all seriousness... do you have a technical term for this kind of pattern?

A classic 'grab your ankles' pattern...

[FenixRD]

Arepo can I ask in all seriousness... do you have a technical term for this kind of pattern?

it is sinusoidal. not necessary a technical name from the trading world, but it can be modeled with the sine function. why do you ask? it is rather pretty isn't it?

Sorta. It's a modified sine. It follows the look of a capacitor's voltage charging and discharging about a mean. The direction of the exponential portion tells you where the mean is located, by current market consensus. The market seeks that consensus. But then there are external factors as well.

[T.Stuart]

6h and 4h StochRSI looks bad, altho not sure how good is it for predicting the future

i'm not sure either. they look bad because what just happened was bad. there was prior warning though.

There was also this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=397534.0

1. So far we have popped up as stated would happen.

2. And we have come back down to around the green line as stated would happen.

3. Now I believe we will ride just above the green line following its trend but likely pop up again in the days to come.

[JorgeStolfi]

I strongly suspect that at least 5000 BTC/day of MtGox volume is fake (the ping-pong I mentioned earlier). Then there are spurts of higher volume when the price is changing fast, obviously due to speculation.

The non-speculative (commercial) trade seems to be less than 5000 BTC/day. How much less?

[Miz4r]

I don't do this very often, but this time I actually sold 10% of my stash at $890 on Stamp. Take this as a warning from a superstrong hand.

[wachtwoord]

I don't do this very often, but this time I actually sold 10% of my stash at $890 on Stamp. Take this as a warning from a superstrong hand.

Needed liquidity?

[T.Stuart]

I don't do this very often, but this time I actually sold 10% of my stash at $890 on Stamp. Take this as a warning from a superstrong hand.

Needed liquidity?

I think he might be saying he panicked?

[Jren]

I don't do this very often, but this time I actually sold 10% of my stash at $890 on Stamp. Take this as a warning from a superstrong hand.

Thanks. Sold all my coins

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/11/13/kuwait_2.jpg

[T.Stuart]

I strongly suspect that at least 5000 BTC/day of MtGox volume is fake (the ping-pong I mentioned earlier). Then there are spurts of higher volume when the price is changing fast, obviously due to speculation.

The non-speculative (commercial) trade seems to be less than 5000 BTC/day. How much less?

I hope you don't mind my asking, but I've seen you make a dozen posts about this. I'm interested to know, do you own any BTC or are you waiting to buy, or neither?

[outofservice]

Is this the bottom or we just stopping to let some ppl off before we continue down? The charts indicate still going down, am I reading that right?

[Miz4r]

I don't do this very often, but this time I actually sold 10% of my stash at $890 on Stamp. Take this as a warning from a superstrong hand.

Needed liquidity?

Nah I just want to increase my BTC stash when I see a clear opportunity to do so.

[mellowyellow]

I don't do this very often, but this time I actually sold 10% of my stash at $890 on Stamp. Take this as a warning from a superstrong hand.

Needed liquidity?

I think he might be saying he panicked?

10% is not panicking in my book, when I panic I go 100% idiot mode

Not panicking today though, today is all remarkably predictable with a few trend lines.

[T.Stuart]

...today is all remarkably predictable with a few trend lines.

I think so too (minus the jiggery pokery with the sell walls) that's why I put a question mark against "panicked?"

[magicmexican]

I wasnt even watching gox during the peak of the drop. And was kinda surprised that it went down to only 950-960'ish? While btc-e went to 827. So either btc-e overpanicked, or Gox didnt react at all.