Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ducky1]

no new wires at gox today, it's a holiday in japan

So the Stamp/ btc-e  holiday deposits will arrive today, starting in a couple of hours.

Gox won't have any new ones today because it's a holiday, what about tomorrow?

tomorrow should be fine again.

stamp/btce wires will start soon but i don't know how far we can go without gox.

that's ok .. we can just chill here for a while ... back to trend now, feels mellow

This can't be right! You are predicting $1mil by the end of 2014!

Since I made that chart, i'll say use it with caution. If you make any trading decisions based on that chart you are on your own. It only contains data for part of the period, after the first large bubble in 2011. It also has to be expanded with a S-kind of ending at the top since it will obviously flatten out when saturation is reached. But it gives the best fit to the data for that time period.

[1714546726]

1714546726

[1714546726]

1714546726

[fotosonics]

Coinbase back up. That was a near heart attack that everyone missed.

In other news, oh look, steepest dive in 24 hrs. I know this is unpopular, but I hope it goes back down to 600s by Wed. Because then, when I have some $ to buy more, it can only go up like crazy some more.

PS Time to change to poll already. How about favorite t-shirt for Major Tom?

[ardana123]

So why is no one working that 100$ gap between gox and stamp?

[fotosonics]

So why is no one working that 100$ gap between gox and stamp?

That freakin avatar. It's 4:48 AM here. Not gonna sleep now thx

[Davyd05]

So why is no one working that 100$ gap between gox and stamp?

asking questions to things you should already know.

same things that generally stop it, goxbux.

[600watt]

http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/05/bitcoins-future-foretold-by-developer-momentum/

good news continues...

[ardana123]

So why is no one working that 100$ gap between gox and stamp?

asking questions to things you should already know.

same things that generally stop it, goxbux.

I wonder how much longer this can go on. It's been like this for like 6 months. 40 million USD on the books and god knows how much on the sidelines, all not possible to get out. People must be getting impatient/worried right? Not my problem though, I'm euro...

[oda.krell]

[...]

This can't be right! You are predicting $1mil by the end of 2014!

Since I made that chart, i'll say use it with caution. If you make any trading decisions based on that chart you are on your own. It only contains data for part of the period, after the first large bubble in 2011. It also has to be expanded with a S-kind of ending at the top since it will obviously flatten out when saturation is reached. But it gives the best fit to the data for that time period -- under the assumption that a single function generated the data during the entire period.

Fixed :D

Not attacking you, by the way, I appreciate your input.  Just that it's a pet peeve of mine: pointing out that despite all the other assumptions (remove outliers or not?, which period to use for input?, exponential function? double exponential?), the assumption that it is exactly one function we're looking for is perhaps the biggest (simplifying) assumption of them all.

[Davyd05]

what the deuce stamp

[Ashitank]

what the deuce stamp

I expect stamp & BTC-e to go down to 920 ~ 899 level before start going back-up.

[Davyd05]

what the deuce stamp

I expect stamp & BTC-e to go down to 920 ~ 899 level before start going back-up.

they going to run out of bear coins?

[Ducky1]

Since I made that chart, i'll say use it with caution. If you make any trading decisions based on that chart you are on your own. It only contains data for part of the period, after the first large bubble in 2011. It also has to be expanded with a S-kind of ending at the top since it will obviously flatten out when saturation is reached. But it gives the best fit to the data for that time period -- under the assumption that a single function generated the data during the entire period.

Fixed

Not attacking you, by the way, I appreciate your input.  Just that it's a pet peeve of mine: pointing out that despite all the other assumptions (remove outliers or not?, which period to use for input?, exponential function? double exponential?), the assumption that it is exactly one function we're looking for is perhaps the biggest (simplifying) assumption of them all.

Yes, I agree. It's the best "simple" function I have found that best represent the data in this period. I'm sure there is more to it than this. Maybe step functions and dampening underdamped oscillators could be added to have a more detailed description including the bubbles since there seems to be a time pattern to them. Some others have suggested steepening linear log functions (http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=394221.0, and others stick to the full range linear function with monthly price averages (rpietila https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0). And maybe the double exponential plot suggested in my graph is even to conservative, only time will tell. It's meant as an input for debate.

[oda.krell]

Since I made that chart, i'll say use it with caution. If you make any trading decisions based on that chart you are on your own. It only contains data for part of the period, after the first large bubble in 2011. It also has to be expanded with a S-kind of ending at the top since it will obviously flatten out when saturation is reached. But it gives the best fit to the data for that time period -- under the assumption that a single function generated the data during the entire period.

Fixed

Not attacking you, by the way, I appreciate your input.  Just that it's a pet peeve of mine: pointing out that despite all the other assumptions (remove outliers or not?, which period to use for input?, exponential function? double exponential?), the assumption that it is exactly one function we're looking for is perhaps the biggest (simplifying) assumption of them all.

Yes, I agree. It's the best "simple" function I have found that best represent the data in this period. I'm sure there is more to it than this. Maybe step functions and dampening underdamped oscillators could be added to have a more detailed description including the bubbles since there seems to be a time pattern to them. Some others have suggested steepening linear log functions (http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=394221.0, and others stick to the full range linear function with monthly price averages (rpietila https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0). And maybe the double exponential plot suggested in my graph is even to conservative, only time will tell. It's meant as an input for debate.

I've seen them both. gbianchi models price as a function of total no. of btc addresses unless I'm mistaken. Not totally dumb I'd say, but in the end, I'd bet no. of addresses and price are not independent. And rpietila is using the most "traditional" way of a log linear model (line of best fit) unless I'm mistaken. I strongly doubt that approach is useful for active trading, it's shown itself to be off by more a factor of 10 (!!!) at times.

I understand the desire to find the *one* function that fits them all, but even trying to find a more complex function like an (under)damped oscillator is perhaps not the best way to go about it: I personally believe there is no way around the idea that, at different time periods, different functions govern btc price. The trick is of course to limit that number in a systematic way, and to avoid overfitting.

[gentlemand]

I wonder how much longer this can go on. It's been like this for like 6 months. 40 million USD on the books and god knows how much on the sidelines, all not possible to get out. People must be getting impatient/worried right? Not my problem though, I'm euro...

This is an enduring mystery to me as well.

You want to pay more for your coins and you don't want to be able to get any cash out? Surely people have researched it enough to know not to bother. Perhaps not.

[Davyd05]

well selling has become the theme of this eastern morning

[ardana123]

I wonder how much longer this can go on. It's been like this for like 6 months. 40 million USD on the books and god knows how much on the sidelines, all not possible to get out. People must be getting impatient/worried right? Not my problem though, I'm euro...

This is an enduring mystery to me as well.

You want to pay more for your coins and you don't want to be able to get any cash out? Surely people have researched it enough to know not to bother. Perhaps not.

Gox hasn't exactly been forthcoming to new customers about their withdrawal situation. Gox is still the first thing you see when you google "buy bitcoins".

That said, I do hope they get their shit together. Would be a terrible blow to bitcoin if they were to shut down, holding customer funds in captivity and at the whim of government agencies.

[wobber]

CRASH!

[Ducky1]

Since I made that chart, i'll say use it with caution. If you make any trading decisions based on that chart you are on your own. It only contains data for part of the period, after the first large bubble in 2011. It also has to be expanded with a S-kind of ending at the top since it will obviously flatten out when saturation is reached. But it gives the best fit to the data for that time period -- under the assumption that a single function generated the data during the entire period.

Fixed

Not attacking you, by the way, I appreciate your input.  Just that it's a pet peeve of mine: pointing out that despite all the other assumptions (remove outliers or not?, which period to use for input?, exponential function? double exponential?), the assumption that it is exactly one function we're looking for is perhaps the biggest (simplifying) assumption of them all.

Yes, I agree. It's the best "simple" function I have found that best represent the data in this period. I'm sure there is more to it than this. Maybe step functions and dampening underdamped oscillators could be added to have a more detailed description including the bubbles since there seems to be a time pattern to them. Some others have suggested steepening linear log functions (http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=394221.0, and others stick to the full range linear function with monthly price averages (rpietila https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0). And maybe the double exponential plot suggested in my graph is even to conservative, only time will tell. It's meant as an input for debate.

I've seen them both. gbianchi models price as a function of total no. of btc addresses unless I'm mistaken. Not totally dumb I'd say, but in the end, I'd bet no. of addresses and price are not independent. And rpietila is using the most "traditional" way of a log linear model (line of best fit) unless I'm mistaken. I strongly doubt that approach is useful for active trading, it's shown itself to be off by more a factor of 10 (!!!) at times.

I understand the desire to find the *one* function that fits them all, but even trying to find a more complex function like an (under)damped oscillator is perhaps not the best way to go about it: I personally believe there is no way around the idea that, at different time periods, different functions govern btc price. The trick is of course to limit that number in a systematic way, and to avoid overfitting.

Yes, so how do we best limit the number in a systematic way?

[strawbs]

I wonder how much longer this can go on. It's been like this for like 6 months. 40 million USD on the books and god knows how much on the sidelines, all not possible to get out. People must be getting impatient/worried right? Not my problem though, I'm euro...

This is an enduring mystery to me as well.

You want to pay more for your coins and you don't want to be able to get any cash out? Surely people have researched it enough to know not to bother. Perhaps not.

It's pretty simple really.  Gox is primarily used by traders since it has a relatively good user-friendly platform. If you want to day-trade or hold short positions, it's easy to do on Gox.  Then if you want to cash out, you withdraw your btc to your wallet, send it to Stamp or suchlike and then withdraw fiat.  You wouldn't want to buy your first lot of btc from Gox (because of the c.10% inflated price), nor sell your final holding (because you can't withdraw fiat) but for everything in-between it's very useable.

[ft73]

11,000 BTC to 750$ ... 11,000 BTC to 2,000$ ... (Gox)

EDIT: 12,000 BTC to 10,000$ ... is that true or is bitcoinity borked?