Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[MAbtc]

Blitz is right. Many here are very badly prepared psychologically for the event of a long term bear market. Do I expect $100 coins? Lower? No. Is it a distinct possibility, outside of a fatal crash to $0? Yes, unquestionably. Dismissing the possibility out of hand, as many here do, is laughable. Queue log chart, etc. that is supposed to show me that trend break is impossible.....

[T.Stuart]

Blitz is right. Many here are very badly prepared psychologically for the event of a long term bear market. Do I expect $100 coins? Lower? No. Is it a distinct possibility, outside of a fatal crash to $0? Yes, unquestionably. Dismissing the possibility out of hand, as many here do, is laughable. Queue log chart, etc. that is supposed to show me that trend break is impossible.....

I think many may be very badly prepared for a long-term bear market because it seems rather unlikely at this stage. The only reason I can think of for this to happen over the next couple of years would be a catastrophic technical event rendering the security of the protocol unreliable. China ban, bubble-theorists, etc... none of that has the power to cause a long-term bear market considering where Bitcoin is now.

What else do you think might cause such a change in market sentiment at this stage?

[NewLiberty]

Deep packet inspection by ISPs has been going on for at least a decade.  They never needed priority as an excuse.  But keep on cheering for more centralized control of our networks.  Soon all my traffic will be encrypted on Comcast's network.

Sure it happens, but it is relatively rare and expensive to do pervasively, even in places where the government claims the authority and is uncontested to do it at will, it is still relatively rare.
Putting this financial incentive in front of it will ease the burden making it more common.
When we brought our new shiny QoS high speed ATM and MPLS switches into China, knowing what to say, and what not to say, and to whom, remained important.

[NewLiberty]

Blitz is right. Many here are very badly prepared psychologically for the event of a long term bear market. Do I expect $100 coins? Lower? No. Is it a distinct possibility, outside of a fatal crash to $0? Yes, unquestionably. Dismissing the possibility out of hand, as many here do, is laughable. Queue log chart, etc. that is supposed to show me that trend break is impossible.....

I think many may be very badly prepared for a long-term bear market because it seems rather unlikely at this stage. The only reason I can think of for this to happen over the next couple of years would be a catastrophic technical event rendering the security of the protocol unreliable. China ban, bubble-theorists, etc... none of that has the power to cause a long-term bear market considering where Bitcoin is now.

What else do you think might cause such a change in market sentiment at this stage?

Even the China ban was on the heels of China broadcasting video about the wonders of bitcoin.
Bitcoin is in China to stay, they just haven't figured out how to handle all the issues and so are putting a hold on the big business until they do.

[mestar]

What else do you think might cause such a change in market sentiment at this stage?

When the mining hardware finally catches up with the demand, we will see the selling pressure from miners that have to cover their running costs.  This selling pressure is proportional to the Bitcoin price.  With the current price, this can be an amount up to $3.6 million daily, and this will surely be your factor that can change the current up trend.

Speculators may come and go, but this selling pressure will always be there.  Or at least in the next 3 years, and then half the amount in the next 4 years.  Brace yourself, bear market is coming.

[Richard Branson]

Actually bitcoin miners are fucked.
99% of the miners (paid in BTC) won't reach ROI ever !
They hoard the coins and wait for a price increase, otherwise they all lose money.

If the mining business collapses and 5000 coins are sold daily, there will be blood (candles)  

At the moment, only a few can win. Most can't cash out or they will lose money (market collapse). That's one of the main reason for the steady uptrend. It's not market adoption or increased utility. Transactions didn't increase very much the last 3 years. The price did with only a few percentage of bitcoins traded.

[MAbtc]

Blitz is right. Many here are very badly prepared psychologically for the event of a long term bear market. Do I expect $100 coins? Lower? No. Is it a distinct possibility, outside of a fatal crash to $0? Yes, unquestionably. Dismissing the possibility out of hand, as many here do, is laughable. Queue log chart, etc. that is supposed to show me that trend break is impossible.....

I think many may be very badly prepared for a long-term bear market because it seems rather unlikely at this stage. The only reason I can think of for this to happen over the next couple of years would be a catastrophic technical event rendering the security of the protocol unreliable. China ban, bubble-theorists, etc... none of that has the power to cause a long-term bear market considering where Bitcoin is now.

What else do you think might cause such a change in market sentiment at this stage?

Likely or not, I find it is best for my mental health not to delude myself into believing the possible is impossible. I'm not thinking of catalysts in particular -- in fact, I think doing so provides no value. Just noting that trends are trends until they aren't. I get the feeling that many people are so heavily invested in the 4-year bull market continuing uninterrupted, that they might be crippled if it doesn't. And I assure you that at the bottom of a long term bear market, many of the relentless hodlers will have sold having lost immense unrealized gains. I think it's best to have a divestment strategy in place that doesn't wait for the moon to diversify some of your gains. I can't imagine the stress of holding a significant amount of BTC and not having taken out my initial investment (or many times that).

[Wekkel]

It is easier to follow simple rules, like rptielia's simple dont buy above $400 rule 

[adamstgBit]

It is easier to follow simple rules, like rptielia's simple dont buy above $400 rule 

that a stupid rule

*sick, tired, and pissed off*

[Anima]

It is easier to follow simple rules, like rptielia's simple dont buy above $400 rule 

Que skeleton meme..

[oda.krell]

It is easier to follow simple rules, like rptielia's simple dont buy above $400 rule  8)

Or, as I like to call it, the "Don't buy at all with ~80% probability" rule :D

[aminorex]

Actually bitcoin miners are fucked.

Not quite.  Or if so, then in a rather pleasant manner.

99% of the miners (paid in BTC) won't reach ROI ever !

But the majority of miners probably don't do their accounting in BTC.  They probably do it in RMB or USD.  In which case, the picture changes substantially.

They hoard the coins and wait for a price increase, otherwise they all lose money.

Only those who do their accounting in BTC.  The true believers.  And a large proportion of the true believers would mine at a loss, even in fiat accounting, just to support the network and stay involved in the protocol, keep their hand hot, awaiting new opportunities.

But yes, point taken, they will not ROI in BTC, most of them.  Some will.  Certainly mining new alt-coins is very lucrative, with GPUs, at present.

If the mining business collapses and 5000 coins are sold daily, there will be blood (candles)  

That would be nice, but I wouldn't count on it.  Mining has been this way since early 2013.  No cracks are showing.  The failures we've seen have just meant cheap mining hardware, in bankruptcy sales.  The market for virgin coins is very brisk, and has been as long as I've been involved.  Could change.  No catalyst is evident however.

At the moment, only a few can win. Most can't cash out or they will lose money (market collapse). That's one of the main reason for the steady uptrend. It's not market adoption or increased utility. Transactions didn't increase very much the last 3 years. The price did with only a few percentage of bitcoins traded.

Transactions quintupled in 2012, tripled again in 2013.  They will more than triple in 2014.  But transaction count doesn't really impact BTC value directly.  It's the volume that impacts value directly.  Price and value not being equal, of course.  A risk-free discounting of a minimum future valuation indicates that value is much higher than price at present.

I do agree that most miners will hoard in order to get break-even or better in fiat terms.   I've been mining a while, and roughly 1/4 of my hardware has been negative in fiat terms at the time of mining but eventually positive with price changes, 1/2 has been positive in fiat at the time but negative in BTC, and 1/4 has been positive in BTC.    Overall, it's fiat positive, roughly BTC neutral.  When you do win, you tend to win big.  But it is a terrible crapshoot, and I wouldn't recommend it to anyone who can't get a sweet deal on a hot chip at the right time unless, like me, you just want to keep a large exposure surface to the BTC universe, to keep your awareness keen.

[N12]

What else do you think might cause such a change in market sentiment at this stage?

When the mining hardware finally catches up with the demand, we will see the selling pressure from miners that have to cover their running costs.  This selling pressure is proportional to the Bitcoin price.  With the current price, this can be an amount up to $3.6 million daily, and this will surely be your factor that can change the current up trend.

Speculators may come and go, but this selling pressure will always be there.  Or at least in the next 3 years, and then half the amount in the next 4 years.  Brace yourself, bear market is coming.

Very important fundamental. Up until now, profit margins have been ridiculously high ever since the first ASICs came out. Obviously, this technological advancement stops soon and will adhere to Moore's law eventually. Only because of the ridiculously high profit margins have miners been able to withhold a large percentage of daily mined coins.

As the profit margins collapse, miners feel the squeeze and are forced to sell more and more not only to cover the initial hardware costs but also electricity, rental etc.

In any other market, miners hedge themselves immediately, but Bitcoin's bubble and compressed technological cycle has created a unique situation in the short term.

Anyone who understands feedback loops will immediately grasp the horrors in my mind. We don't even know much the market could handle; I'm afraid it is very susceptible to changes in supply. Supply drought, supply shock.

[hyphymikey]

How long would you guys consider "long-term" be? 

I am bearish, but only for another 2 weeks. At the longest until income tax returns come around. That is when I bought in last year, with my "free money". I suspect some people will do the same this year.

[MAbtc]

How long would you guys consider "long-term" be? 

I am bearish, but only for another 2 weeks. At the longest until income tax returns come around. That is when I bought in last year, with my "free money". I suspect some people will do the same this year.

A year. 2 years. 4 years. LOL.

Regarding tax returns, I find it very hard to believe there is any shortage of fiat ready to enter this market.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[byronbb]

What else do you think might cause such a change in market sentiment at this stage?

When the mining hardware finally catches up with the demand, we will see the selling pressure from miners that have to cover their running costs.  This selling pressure is proportional to the Bitcoin price.  With the current price, this can be an amount up to $3.6 million daily, and this will surely be your factor that can change the current up trend.

Speculators may come and go, but this selling pressure will always be there.  Or at least in the next 3 years, and then half the amount in the next 4 years.  Brace yourself, bear market is coming.

Very important fundamental. Up until now, profit margins have been ridiculously high ever since the first ASICs came out. Obviously, this technological advancement stops soon and will adhere to Moore's law eventually. Only because of the ridiculously high profit margins have miners been able to withhold a large percentage of daily mined coins.

As the profit margins collapse, miners feel the squeeze and are forced to sell more and more not only to cover the initial hardware costs but also electricity, rental etc.

In any other market, miners hedge themselves immediately, but Bitcoin's bubble and compressed technological cycle has created a unique situation in the short term.

Anyone who understands feedback loops will immediately grasp the horrors in my mind. We don't even know much the market could handle; I'm afraid it is very susceptible to changes in supply. Supply drought, supply shock.

Yes I have been thinking of this too. We are still at the early cycles of bitcoin expansion contraction. In any dynamic where money is ridiculously easy to obtain, participants will multiply: thus the massive jumps in difficulty. I expected a "miner squeeze" when ASIC emerged but I was very wrong. Perhaps such a contraction needed a further run-up and will emerge in the near future.

[Adrian-x]

Blitz is right. Many here are very badly prepared psychologically for the event of a long term bear market. Do I expect $100 coins? Lower? No. Is it a distinct possibility, outside of a fatal crash to $0? Yes, unquestionably. Dismissing the possibility out of hand, as many here do, is laughable. Queue log chart, etc. that is supposed to show me that trend break is impossible.....

I think many may be very badly prepared for a long-term bear market because it seems rather unlikely at this stage. The only reason I can think of for this to happen over the next couple of years would be a catastrophic technical event rendering the security of the protocol unreliable. China ban, bubble-theorists, etc... none of that has the power to cause a long-term bear market considering where Bitcoin is now.

What else do you think might cause such a change in market sentiment at this stage?

The unequal distribution of coins can discourage adoption, the result the Bitcoin network has less value, until an optimal distribution equilibrium is reached this bear market will always be a credible probability.

[JorgeStolfi]

One of these plots is actual hourly closing price (USD/BTC) from one exchange, the other is a series of fake prices generated by a simple "log-Brownian" model.

Can you tell which is which, without looking at other charts?
If you think you can, what difference do you see?

[slakeco]

EDIT: I seem to post on the top of the page almost every time page ends in 3 lol. Page 4043, 4023, 4013 (yeah I'm weird)

Too weird for me...selling all my coins.