Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[deadfi$h]

The only thing that worries me is the possibility of a straight shot to the moon.

It is the most frightening thing that exists. It keeps 90% of my coins off the exchange.

I'm showing moderate growth in my exchange account, but not enough to merit the risk of being light on bitcoin when this thing erupts...

I don't understand this mentality. A jump to any sort of high level of price is going to take days and weeks and months. Why not ride it up when it's going up and down when it's going down? There's always time to jump back in.

If you don't have the time or desire to pay close attention to the markets, then buy and hodl can be a decent strategy. I don't know, it just makes me nervous going to sleep with a trade open.

I'll try to explain.

I'm in a bit of an awkward position. I live in Canada. I'm a miner. The only reliable withdrawl method I've found is cavirtex. They charge me 1.5% per trade, so if I try to trade too close to the edge, I will get burned.

However, the fiat withdrawls are fast (1 or 2 days) and directly into my bank account; the withdrawls also incur only a flat 6 dollar fee. So, I guess I'm trading as more of a hedge than an opportunity.

A miners life for me  

I'm American so I'm not sure if harder to join as a Canadian but have you tried Bitfinex? Withdrawals are easy and cost $10, fees are 0.15% to start, and you can lend coin or cash sitting in your account to traders for 10-30% return per month. Also, margin and shorts.

[1714542257]

1714542257

[1714542257]

1714542257

[1714542257]

1714542257

[1714542257]

1714542257

[thms]

There will be a huge speculative sell soon... holders will sell their coins to buy later when the price drops

You speak with such authority, clearly you have seen the future.  I have sold everything.  Tell me, at what price should I buy?

Thank you. So listen, I recommend buying back at $550. If you make huge profits send me some satoshis ok  

[shmadz]

Thank you, but I can not seem to save the image as anything other than .xcf and I can't seem to make windows accept that as a background, any other options?

use "Export" rather than "Save" to save in a format other than .xcf

Thank you. It worked  

-- hold on, wait a sec, are you actually the guy that wrote the software?!!!?!

this community continues to amaze. I feel privileged to even be alive during these times!

*edit* never mind, I confused JorgeStolfi with Jernej Simoncic who was listed as the publisher of the program I installed.

also thanks to notme for helping as well.

[windjc]

The only thing that worries me is the possibility of a straight shot to the moon.

It is the most frightening thing that exists. It keeps 90% of my coins off the exchange.

I'm showing moderate growth in my exchange account, but not enough to merit the risk of being light on bitcoin when this thing erupts...

I don't understand this mentality. A jump to any sort of high level of price is going to take days and weeks and months. Why not ride it up when it's going up and down when it's going down? There's always time to jump back in.

If you don't have the time or desire to pay close attention to the markets, then buy and hodl can be a decent strategy. I don't know, it just makes me nervous going to sleep with a trade open.

I thought like you once, and waiting to buy back in after Bitcoin went north of $10, I knew I was going to nail this market.

But do you think your problem was selling in the first place or that you misjudged the market and should have bought back in sooner? You would have had some great opportunities to buy back in after that rise and crash.

There are some pretty awesome benefits of trading vs hodling though. Like for instance in that bloody day after the BTC-China news, I increased my account 60%. Hodlers did not. I'm all for hodling in a raging bull market  

Catching part a crash is easy. See the news, react to it. Wait 10 minutes to 2 hours. Buy back.

Trading the market right now? Different story. You so sure we are in a bear market? Absolutely positive? Ok, if you are then you are smarter than me.

Sure it looks heavy, but every day it doesn't go down is a day I would be worried if I was you.

Anybody who thinks they have a read on this market better have access to some specific data --> actual cash inflow/outflow into and out of all exchanges, actual volume of off exchange purchases, prototypes and development stages of current bitcoin eco-system products and apps, pending announcements from large retailers, specific EFT approval status, miner sentiment, just to name a few.

If you don't have access to these data points, then you are GUESSING right now not trading. And if you are trading the swings you better have trailing stops.

[JorgeStolfi]

-- hold on, wait a sec, are you actually the guy that wrote the software?!!!?!

I wish I was! But no, Gimp is the work of many great Gnu/Linux hackers out there...

[ShroomsKit]

Is it time to panic sell because of panic selling because of no bad news again?
And then panic buy in when it hits 950 again in a few days?

[adamstgBit]

Is it time to panic sell because of panic selling because of no bad news again?
And then panic buy in when it hits 950 again in a few days?

no no no

now is the time to strategically sell a % of your coins as risk management / possible low buyback opportunity coming soon.

[deadfi$h]

The only thing that worries me is the possibility of a straight shot to the moon.

It is the most frightening thing that exists. It keeps 90% of my coins off the exchange.

I'm showing moderate growth in my exchange account, but not enough to merit the risk of being light on bitcoin when this thing erupts...

I don't understand this mentality. A jump to any sort of high level of price is going to take days and weeks and months. Why not ride it up when it's going up and down when it's going down? There's always time to jump back in.

If you don't have the time or desire to pay close attention to the markets, then buy and hodl can be a decent strategy. I don't know, it just makes me nervous going to sleep with a trade open.

I thought like you once, and waiting to buy back in after Bitcoin went north of $10, I knew I was going to nail this market.

But do you think your problem was selling in the first place or that you misjudged the market and should have bought back in sooner? You would have had some great opportunities to buy back in after that rise and crash.

There are some pretty awesome benefits of trading vs hodling though. Like for instance in that bloody day after the BTC-China news, I increased my account 60%. Hodlers did not. I'm all for hodling in a raging bull market  

Catching part a crash is easy. See the news, react to it. Wait 10 minutes to 2 hours. Buy back.

Trading the market right now? Different story. You so sure we are in a bear market? Absolutely positive? Ok, if you are then you are smarter than me.

Sure it looks heavy, but every day it doesn't go down is a day I would be worried if I was you.

Anybody who thinks they have a read on this market better have access to some specific data --> actual cash inflow/outflow into and out of all exchanges, actual volume of off exchange purchases, prototypes and development stages of current bitcoin eco-system products and apps, pending announcements from large retailers, specific EFT approval status, miner sentiment, just to name a few.

If you don't have access to these data points, then you are GUESSING right now not trading. And if you are trading the swings you better have trailing stops.

I'm not a bear at all. Long term I'm bullish but it doesn't matter because I just trade whatever is happening at the time. Right now we're looking at this big sloppy symmetrical triangle breaking out in a downward direction. If that doesn't materialize, I'm sitting 100% fiat until something materializes up or down. I actually closed my previous trade and am sitting on my hands until there's some confirmation which looks like it'll take at least a few more hours if it happens at all.

The great thing about trading is that you don't have to play all the time. Locking in small gains and more importantly not losing money are the way to go in my opinion.

edit:
This is just how my mind works. Don't mean to be down on anyone's strategy! Lots of opportunity for us all to make good money in this crazy market.

[virtualfaqs]

That's the point I'm trying to make. Overstock.com policy is 30 days. If BTC price goes down in 30 days, there are going to be people who will refund and rebuy. Will that be fraud or policy?

Good point, the solution store credit or refund in XBT after you pay a restocking fee.

Ok so my first point wasn't too good as I realized BTC received will be proportional to price. My bad.  What about returns though? Price locked in when you they receive it and process it. But you don't know when that is unless it's the tracking delivery time. I'll have to look into their return policy to see if there's any problems with it.

[adamstgBit]

The only thing that worries me is the possibility of a straight shot to the moon.

It is the most frightening thing that exists. It keeps 90% of my coins off the exchange.

I'm showing moderate growth in my exchange account, but not enough to merit the risk of being light on bitcoin when this thing erupts...

I don't understand this mentality. A jump to any sort of high level of price is going to take days and weeks and months. Why not ride it up when it's going up and down when it's going down? There's always time to jump back in.

If you don't have the time or desire to pay close attention to the markets, then buy and hodl can be a decent strategy. I don't know, it just makes me nervous going to sleep with a trade open.

I thought like you once, and waiting to buy back in after Bitcoin went north of $10, I knew I was going to nail this market.

But do you think your problem was selling in the first place or that you misjudged the market and should have bought back in sooner? You would have had some great opportunities to buy back in after that rise and crash.

There are some pretty awesome benefits of trading vs hodling though. Like for instance in that bloody day after the BTC-China news, I increased my account 60%. Hodlers did not. I'm all for hodling in a raging bull market  

Catching part a crash is easy. See the news, react to it. Wait 10 minutes to 2 hours. Buy back.

Trading the market right now? Different story. You so sure we are in a bear market? Absolutely positive? Ok, if you are then you are smarter than me.

Sure it looks heavy, but every day it doesn't go down is a day I would be worried if I was you.

Anybody who thinks they have a read on this market better have access to some specific data --> actual cash inflow/outflow into and out of all exchanges, actual volume of off exchange purchases, prototypes and development stages of current bitcoin eco-system products and apps, pending announcements from large retailers, specific EFT approval status, miner sentiment, just to name a few.

If you don't have access to these data points, then you are GUESSING right now not trading. And if you are trading the swings you better have trailing stops.

I'm not a bear at all. Long term I'm bullish but it doesn't matter because I just trade whatever is happening at the time. Right now we're looking at this big sloppy symmetrical triangle breaking out in a downward direction. If that doesn't materialize, I'm sitting 100% fiat until something materializes up or down. I actually closed my previous trade and am sitting on my hands until there's some confirmation which looks like it'll take at least a few more hours if it happens at all.

The great thing about trading is that you don't have to play all the time. Locking in small gains and more importantly not losing money are the way to go in my opinion.

edit:
This is just how my mind works. Don't mean to be down on anyone's strategy! Lots of opportunity for us all to make good money in this crazy market.

very wize

but you really have to take a sizeable position on the long term and not play with that.

trading is fun and games

taking the bitcoin bet is a once in a life time opportunity

[virtualfaqs]

The only thing that worries me is the possibility of a straight shot to the moon.

It is the most frightening thing that exists. It keeps 90% of my coins off the exchange.

I'm showing moderate growth in my exchange account, but not enough to merit the risk of being light on bitcoin when this thing erupts...

I don't understand this mentality. A jump to any sort of high level of price is going to take days and weeks and months. Why not ride it up when it's going up and down when it's going down? There's always time to jump back in.

If you don't have the time or desire to pay close attention to the markets, then buy and hodl can be a decent strategy. I don't know, it just makes me nervous going to sleep with a trade open.

I thought like you once, and waiting to buy back in after Bitcoin went north of $10, I knew I was going to nail this market.

But do you think your problem was selling in the first place or that you misjudged the market and should have bought back in sooner? You would have had some great opportunities to buy back in after that rise and crash.

There are some pretty awesome benefits of trading vs hodling though. Like for instance in that bloody day after the BTC-China news, I increased my account 60%. Hodlers did not. I'm all for hodling in a raging bull market  

Catching part a crash is easy. See the news, react to it. Wait 10 minutes to 2 hours. Buy back.

Trading the market right now? Different story. You so sure we are in a bear market? Absolutely positive? Ok, if you are then you are smarter than me.

Sure it looks heavy, but every day it doesn't go down is a day I would be worried if I was you.

Anybody who thinks they have a read on this market better have access to some specific data --> actual cash inflow/outflow into and out of all exchanges, actual volume of off exchange purchases, prototypes and development stages of current bitcoin eco-system products and apps, pending announcements from large retailers, specific EFT approval status, miner sentiment, just to name a few.

If you don't have access to these data points, then you are GUESSING right now not trading. And if you are trading the swings you better have trailing stops.

I'm not a bear at all. Long term I'm bullish but it doesn't matter because I just trade whatever is happening at the time. Right now we're looking at this big sloppy symmetrical triangle breaking out in a downward direction. If that doesn't materialize, I'm sitting 100% fiat until something materializes up or down. I actually closed my previous trade and am sitting on my hands until there's some confirmation which looks like it'll take at least a few more hours if it happens at all.

The great thing about trading is that you don't have to play all the time. Locking in small gains and more importantly not losing money are the way to go in my opinion.

edit:
This is just how my mind works. Don't mean to be down on anyone's strategy! Lots of opportunity for us all to make good money in this crazy market.

very wize

but you really have to take a sizeable position on the long term and not play with that.

trading is fun and games

taking the bitcoin bet is a once in a life time opportunity

I think of HODLing BTC like the Deal or no Deal game show. Except the banker doesn't try to rip you off.

[shmadz]

That's the point I'm trying to make. Overstock.com policy is 30 days. If BTC price goes down in 30 days, there are going to be people who will refund and rebuy. Will that be fraud or policy?

Good point, the solution store credit or refund in XBT after you pay a restocking fee.

Ok so my first point wasn't too good as I realized BTC received will be proportional to price. My bad.  What about returns though? Price locked in when you they receive it and process it. But you don't know when that is unless it's the tracking delivery time. I'll have to look into their return policy to see if there's any problems with it.

To my knowledge, all returns have been done in BTC. Rather outstanding I must say.

What this tells me is that either they are serious about trying to keep new customers, or they are keeping a portion of their bicoin sales internal (or at least on account at coinbase)

I get the feeling that the BTC refunds are just a marketing ploy to try to hook new customers. I think the situation would change if you see bitcoin going up by $50 per day...

[Adrian-x]

The only thing that worries me is the possibility of a straight shot to the moon.

It is the most frightening thing that exists. It keeps 90% of my coins off the exchange.

I'm showing moderate growth in my exchange account, but not enough to merit the risk of being light on bitcoin when this thing erupts...

I don't understand this mentality. A jump to any sort of high level of price is going to take days and weeks and months. Why not ride it up when it's going up and down when it's going down? There's always time to jump back in.

If you don't have the time or desire to pay close attention to the markets, then buy and hodl can be a decent strategy. I don't know, it just makes me nervous going to sleep with a trade open.

I thought like you once, and waiting to buy back in after Bitcoin went north of $10, I knew I was going to nail this market.

But do you think your problem was selling in the first place or that you misjudged the market and should have bought back in sooner? You would have had some great opportunities to buy back in after that rise and crash.

There are some pretty awesome benefits of trading vs hodling though. Like for instance in that bloody day after the BTC-China news, I increased my account 60%. Hodlers did not. I'm all for hodling in a raging bull market  

I misjudged fundamentals in Bitcoin at $9, after another 50% increase I thought I would ride out the Bull Run which I grossly underestimated.  I now only trade obvious market overreactions
(kind of like a the FED )  

If you can make it work do it, but for me Bitcoin isn’t normal.

[virtualfaqs]

That's the point I'm trying to make. Overstock.com policy is 30 days. If BTC price goes down in 30 days, there are going to be people who will refund and rebuy. Will that be fraud or policy?

Good point, the solution store credit or refund in XBT after you pay a restocking fee.

Ok so my first point wasn't too good as I realized BTC received will be proportional to price. My bad.  What about returns though? Price locked in when you they receive it and process it. But you don't know when that is unless it's the tracking delivery time. I'll have to look into their return policy to see if there's any problems with it.

To my knowledge, all returns have been done in BTC. Rather outstanding I must say.

What this tells me is that either they are serious about trying to keep new customers, or they are keeping a portion of their bicoin sales internal (or at least on account at coinbase)

I get the feeling that the BTC refunds are just a marketing ploy to try to hook new customers. I think the situation would change if you see bitcoin going up by $50 per day...

Tender in = Tender out otherwise it's money laundering or leads to other problems like using overstock as an exchange. The difference is the BTC you receive is not the same as you used to pay which is completely different then any other payment system. But then again other payments don't have such fluctuation. I don't think Overstock is keeping any BTC. Coinbase is issuing BTC refunds, but Overstock deals with refund disputes rather then Coinbase mediating. However Coinbase will close a merchant's account if too many complaints I believe. There's doesn't appear to be any volatility risk on the merchant or Coinbase end since all BTC is resold instantly, but I'll have to look more closely at their policies.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[MAbtc]

The only thing that worries me is the possibility of a straight shot to the moon.

It is the most frightening thing that exists. It keeps 90% of my coins off the exchange.

I'm showing moderate growth in my exchange account, but not enough to merit the risk of being light on bitcoin when this thing erupts...

I don't understand this mentality. A jump to any sort of high level of price is going to take days and weeks and months. Why not ride it up when it's going up and down when it's going down? There's always time to jump back in.

If you don't have the time or desire to pay close attention to the markets, then buy and hodl can be a decent strategy. I don't know, it just makes me nervous going to sleep with a trade open.

I'll try to explain.

I'm in a bit of an awkward position. I live in Canada. I'm a miner. The only reliable withdrawl method I've found is cavirtex. They charge me 1.5% per trade, so if I try to trade too close to the edge, I will get burned.

However, the fiat withdrawls are fast (1 or 2 days) and directly into my bank account; the withdrawls also incur only a flat 6 dollar fee. So, I guess I'm trading as more of a hedge than an opportunity.

A miners life for me  

Why don't you trade elsewhere and only send coins to Virtex when you want to exit that position permanently? I mainly trade on BTC-E, paying .2% commission. 1.5% is crazy!

[seriouscoin]

wow.... anyone see that mtgox $900 wall got pulled or some glitches?

there was a sale bellow $900 when the wall wasnt even touched  

PS : its 2.10 btc at $898..... how the fck that happened? None of the bids above $900 and at $900 was even touched

[adamstgBit]

The only thing that worries me is the possibility of a straight shot to the moon.

It is the most frightening thing that exists. It keeps 90% of my coins off the exchange.

I'm showing moderate growth in my exchange account, but not enough to merit the risk of being light on bitcoin when this thing erupts...

I don't understand this mentality. A jump to any sort of high level of price is going to take days and weeks and months. Why not ride it up when it's going up and down when it's going down? There's always time to jump back in.

If you don't have the time or desire to pay close attention to the markets, then buy and hodl can be a decent strategy. I don't know, it just makes me nervous going to sleep with a trade open.

I'll try to explain.

I'm in a bit of an awkward position. I live in Canada. I'm a miner. The only reliable withdrawl method I've found is cavirtex. They charge me 1.5% per trade, so if I try to trade too close to the edge, I will get burned.

However, the fiat withdrawls are fast (1 or 2 days) and directly into my bank account; the withdrawls also incur only a flat 6 dollar fee. So, I guess I'm trading as more of a hedge than an opportunity.

A miners life for me  

Why don't you trade elsewhere and only send coins to Virtex when you want to exit that position permanently? I mainly trade on BTC-E, paying .2% commission. 1.5% is crazy!

cuz you're fucked if you don't get the trade right.

i do the same thing, i eat the 1.5% fee because if i get knocked out, at least i can withdraw with ease and comfort

i guess you can wait until the spread between btc-e and virtex is tight and use BTC to transfer the funds.... is it that headache worth 1.3% , not to me.

[deadfi$h]

and you can lend coin or cash sitting in your account to traders for 10-30% return per month.

How safe is that money? How is repayment enforced? I still haven't gotten around to looking into Bitfinex.

The money is only used for margin accounts so they can force close any open positions with a margin call if th margin balance goes too low. Bitcoin is loaned for shorters, cash for long positions. I haven't lent any money myself but have borrowed plenty. I guess you can pay part of your percentage return into an insurance pool so that if there is a catastrophic market crash and they can't close margin positions fast enough, then you would be covered of any potential loss.

It's great as a trader though because they offer 2.5:1 leverage (or 4:1 if you're grandfathered in) so you can stretch your money a bit farther on fast trades. The exchange is linked to Bitstamp so you can trade on Stamp for .35% or Finex for .15% or less depending on volume.

[seriouscoin]

btw i have moved from a sophisticated strategy (buy on Monday and sell on Friday) to watching Adam's post of BUY BUY BUY or SELL SELL SELL....

i hate to use this " if i can do it, you can do it"