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Question: Next Bubble Top (resulting in a new ATH):
Will never reach a new ATH - 7 (6.7%)
$20,000-$49,999 - 20 (19%)
$50,000-$99,999 - 27 (25.7%)
$100,000-$149,999 - 22 (21%)
$150,000-$199,999 - 8 (7.6%)
$200,000-$249,999 - 6 (5.7%)
$250,000-$299,999 - 1 (1%)
$300,000-$350,000 - 1 (1%)
>$350,000 - 13 (12.4%)
Total Voters: 105

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21503936 times)
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sirazimuth
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November 30, 2018, 07:49:00 PM
#437241

....study this shit nearly 24/7 like some of us active WO thread peeps.

I think that's my problem actually... (that and drinking too much)
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LFC_Bitcoin
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November 30, 2018, 07:50:08 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
#437242

What are you thinking LFC?  I recall that several days ago, you were a bit more hesitant about attempting to catch a falling knife - as many of us likely got a bit nervous about how fast the damned thing was falling and if there was going to be any bounce in the near terms.... and at least for now, it seems that we have a bit of a resting point and reconsideration of price direction.

I already bought some in the $3,500s, and $3,800s, and of course supra $4k, so probably my next buy would not be until about $3.2k... ... sometimes I will play around with my orders, and then if some sells execute, then I don't mind buying again, too, which I did have some sells in the lower $4k... so will be considering whether I need to adjust what I already have out there.  

Bottom is in?  50/50?  Hairy?  40/60?    Actually, I will admit that based on recent happenings, even I am coming around a bit to the possibility that the bottom might not be in, and maybe I am 47/53-ish.. at least, at the moment that I am typing this.

Interesting thing about bitcoin is that our predictions can change a bit on a daily or a 3 day basis or a weekly basis, depending on momentum and if whatever current consolidation range is getting pushed in one direction or another.   of course, news events too (which can reflect public sentiment)...  Maybe now, we have something like $3,800 to $4,350.. so maybe we shouldn't get too excited unless the edges of those break?

Personally I think the bottom is in Jay, I think weíll trade in the $3,500 to $5,000 range for a while though. I already have a nice stash of coins but you can never have enough. Itís a once in a lifetime opportunity so load up what you can afford to as & when you can.

I panicked a lot as we were dropping from 7k down to 3.5k (I shouldnít have, Iíve been in a worse situation in 2014 when at one point I was literally 80% down on my investment. Even now Iím over 9 x up on what Iíve invested).

Basically Iím calm & relaxed now after the initial shock of dropping so much, so fast from 7k or 8k to 3.5k.
Nothingís going to phase me now, I have strong hands & I can HODL until at least 2021 - 2022 like Iíve always said.

So itís simply time to get on with our boring jobs/businesses until moon launch.

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November 30, 2018, 07:54:20 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
#437243

]A fucking full node cost like $60 to run.

Why all that? You just need some bandwidth and some storage.

Give me 50$ that I can run one for you on my old 2010 notebook
I meant to literally get one running from scratch, a pi $35, a shit 256 gb micro SD is $22 bucks. You still have $3 for a cable (1) and $2 for a USB to wall adapter.

Micro SD cards aren't a good idea for storing blockchain data because you write down data constantly and sd cards are way more crappier than solid state disks it will end up dead in a short time.

Also they aren't $22 neither. Found this one for $45 and I fail to see the write speed which is probably shit. (probably doesn't matter tho) If you are going to spend that much just buy a 1tb or even a 500gb hdd and boot your rpi from there.

Tbh, you don't need all that pain.

Just get a netbook with an atom processor from 2010 (asus eee pc) for 100 bucks and it will do the job like kings. Netbook batteries will last 5 to 10 hours too in case some power outage happens...

Oh the price...

The price is damn boring. I guess it will be like that for a year. We may see some downside action to $3k and that's it. Now everybody says btc is dead, it is boring, from my experience, it is the best time to buy.

I remember they were nicknaming LTC as "$5 coin" look what it did during the bull run.  Cool

JayJuanGee
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November 30, 2018, 08:01:31 PM
#437244

I am a newbee in this market, my psychology when bitcoin reaches 20k$ I do not sell and wait for price increase all because of greed and ignorance  Cry, and now btc is only 4k$. This market is not for people like me. Good luck everyone

Time for buying BTC then, phitan, or at least strategizing when to buy.

The  BTC market is not for people like you, if you do the opposite of what you should, such as buying at the top and then contemplating selling at the bottom.

Also, if you are getting distracted by ICOs are alts, then that could be another problem, but so far, from this one post of yours, and since you posted in this thread, I don't have any evidence that you are getting bitcoin mixed up with alts and ICOs.
d_eddie
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November 30, 2018, 08:04:42 PM
#437245

Micro SD cards aren't a good idea for storing blockchain data because you write down data constantly and sd cards are way more crappier than solid state disks it will end up dead in a short time.

Also they aren't $22 neither. Found this one for $45 and I fail to see the write speed which is probably shit. (probably doesn't matter tho) If you are going to spend that much just buy a 1tb or even a 500gb hdd and boot your rpi from there.

Just get a netbook with an atom processor from 2010 (asus eee pc) for 100 bucks and it will do the job like kings. Netbook batteries will last 5 to 10 hours too in case some power outage happens...
Indeed my first full node was a Pi with a 256M SD and it failed really soon (a few months, maybe 2-3).
Not worth it.
The old netbook route is the way to go.
JayJuanGee
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November 30, 2018, 08:05:39 PM
#437246

Just merited a quote instead of the original.

You guys look all the same with that hats.

 ?? These hats are more unique than a Bitcoin address.



I will wear mine when this signature campaign Iím in ends. I sort of want to wear it now & wave the pay from the campaign but Iíll wait until it ends Grin

LFC hat will be worn early New Year!

Will this hat fad last until the new year?  you could become a late adopter, perhaps?
Last of the V8s
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November 30, 2018, 08:05:46 PM
#437247

https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-cboebzx-2018-040/srcboebzx2018040-4691015-176590.pdf
Meeting with Van Eck Securities Corporation, SolidX Management LLC, Patomak Global Partners, LLC, and Cboe BZX Exchange, Inc.
The discussion concerned Cboe BZX Exchange, Inc.ís proposed rule change to list and trade shares of the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust, as well as the attached presentation submitted to the Commission staff by SolidX Management LLC
.
HairyMaclairy
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November 30, 2018, 08:11:42 PM
Merited by ssmc2 (2)
#437248

The bottom is not in.

This isnít about price, itís about time.  We havenít had enough time to digest the last bull market. 

We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019.  I canít give you a price target because itís not about price. 
Last of the V8s
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November 30, 2018, 08:13:31 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), jojo69 (1)
#437249

Well it's about time.
LFC_Bitcoin
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November 30, 2018, 08:18:10 PM
#437250

The bottom is not in.

This isnít about price, itís about time.  We havenít had enough time to digest the last bull market. 

We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019.  I canít give you a price target because itís not about price. 

Do you still stand by your uber high price prediction of 280k per coin at the top of the next cycle?
PoolMinor
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November 30, 2018, 08:28:11 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
#437251

The bottom is not in.

This isnít about price, itís about time.  We havenít had enough time to digest the last bull market.  

We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019.  I canít give you a price target because itís not about price.  

Now you are just producing FUD

/S



Do you still stand by your uber high price prediction of 280k per coin at the top of the next cycle?

Why is it so difficult to comprehend? It is possible to be a realist and see a trend to a lower price and also see the bigger picture of the next ATH!
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November 30, 2018, 08:32:38 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)
#437252

Just merited a quote instead of the original.

You guys look all the same with that hats.

 ?? These hats are more unique than a Bitcoin address.



I will wear mine when this signature campaign Iím in ends. I sort of want to wear it now & wave the pay from the campaign but Iíll wait until it ends Grin

LFC hat will be worn early New Year!

Will this hat fad last until the new year?  you could become a late adopter, perhaps?
What the fuck do you mean "fad"?
JayJuanGee
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November 30, 2018, 08:34:57 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)
#437253

What are you thinking LFC?  I recall that several days ago, you were a bit more hesitant about attempting to catch a falling knife - as many of us likely got a bit nervous about how fast the damned thing was falling and if there was going to be any bounce in the near terms.... and at least for now, it seems that we have a bit of a resting point and reconsideration of price direction.

I already bought some in the $3,500s, and $3,800s, and of course supra $4k, so probably my next buy would not be until about $3.2k... ... sometimes I will play around with my orders, and then if some sells execute, then I don't mind buying again, too, which I did have some sells in the lower $4k... so will be considering whether I need to adjust what I already have out there.  

Bottom is in?  50/50?  Hairy?  40/60?    Actually, I will admit that based on recent happenings, even I am coming around a bit to the possibility that the bottom might not be in, and maybe I am 47/53-ish.. at least, at the moment that I am typing this.

Interesting thing about bitcoin is that our predictions can change a bit on a daily or a 3 day basis or a weekly basis, depending on momentum and if whatever current consolidation range is getting pushed in one direction or another.   of course, news events too (which can reflect public sentiment)...  Maybe now, we have something like $3,800 to $4,350.. so maybe we shouldn't get too excited unless the edges of those break?

Personally I think the bottom is in Jay,

Sounds like you are in the 75/25 camp, or something like that.

I never feel like it is good for my psyche to have that much confidence, that is why I just (in the last post) put myself at about 47/53... maybe if we play around in these territories for a while, I might convert into a 53/47-ish kind of guy.. but I cannot say for sure... and also, when there is a lot of movement, confidence lowers about any kind of prediction, at least for me, and it can just take a bit of time to watch it play out and to attempt to get bearings back.


I think weíll trade in the $3,500 to $5,000 range for a while though.

Fair enough on that one.

I already have a nice stash of coins but you can never have enough. Itís a once in a lifetime opportunity so load up what you can afford to as & when you can.

Actually, for us HODLers and longer time-horizon thinkers (even though I would not really consider 2021 to be a really long time horizon), or whatever the fuck we might be called, there is a kind of getting a stake in the thing that goes  on in the early stages, but then maintenance is also going to include some ongoing accumulation because it is likely that we still have some discretion over ongoing cashflow that we have, and if we did not make some bad decisions and over invest and engage in some unnecessary panic losses (which also could just be part of the learning process about these kinds of highly volatile and new asset class markets)


I panicked a lot as we were dropping from 7k down to 3.5k (I shouldnít have, Iíve been in a worse situation in 2014 when at one point I was literally 80% down on my investment. Even now Iím over 9 x up on what Iíve invested).

Of course, I had seen some of your old posts and strategies, since you were kind of a highlighted special here in WO thread in recent times, and some of our strategies differed in the early days... yet I was pretty highly down too... I believe that my max amount of down was in the 65% territory... and during that time, I was trying to figure out ways to be prudent, and I also realized that every extra dollar that I put into bitcoin would bring my cost per BTC down by quite a lot, so there was a considerable incentive to buy more BTC - even while at that same time it was scary (and perhaps seemingly lacking of prudence) to invest more into something that you already had a lot invested into and was underwater.

I am probably in around 5x up territory currently, depending upon how matters are calculated.  It can become a bit complicated to calculate sometimes... but the point for both you and me remains very similar in that there were times of considerable negative value as compared to currently having decently sized equity and cushion in the who investment.  From the outset, I considered investing into bitcoin as a kind of novel investment, and I thought that if I can get it to perform equally or even in the ballpark of my traditional investments (which tend to average in about the 5% to 6% territory), then I am doing quite well... and think about it, 5x in five years, is quite well in a kind of 100% per year arena (with a decent amount of cushion).  I am not even calculating accurately because it's not like I put all of my money in on day 1, so when dollar cost averaging in, it can be a decently greater calculation obstacle to figure out overall average return - yet some people will make attempts to take snapshots, such as where they were at at the end of each calendar year,  and then attempt to average it out from that (even though those would be kind of weighted averages since the BTC balance would be different each snapshot, too).

Basically Iím calm & relaxed now after the initial shock of dropping so much, so fast from 7k or 8k to 3.5k.
Nothingís going to phase me now, I have strong hands & I can HODL until at least 2021 - 2022 like Iíve always said.

So itís simply time to get on with our boring jobs/businesses until moon launch.

I think that part of my goal has been to attempt to make bitcoin a more boring investment for me, but having so much ongoing action and drama in the bitcoin space (and the ongoing attacks on bitcoin) seems to cause some inabilities to completely detach from some ongoing involvement in the investment... yet, at the same, time, I do believe that if BTC value does continue to go up in any kind of reasonable way (that is largely presumed to have high likelihood), then my goal to become a lot more passive in my BTC investment has decent odds of realization in the coming years.. and moreso the longer that I project out the timeline (and decent likelihood of enjoying while having some youth).
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November 30, 2018, 08:35:32 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
#437254

The bottom is not in.

This isnít about price, itís about time.  We havenít had enough time to digest the last bull market.  

We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019.  I canít give you a price target because itís not about price.  

Well, what this contention is based on, exactly?
There is no law that in bitcoin bear markets have to last the same time as bull markets (or longer).
In US stocks market, by comparison, bull markets typically last longer (in time) than bear markets (at least in the last 100-120 years).
I "digested" the last bull market just fine, so I vote for bull resumption earlier than mid 2019.

TL;DR Basically, this is just an opinion that is not based on anything else than your "gut". It could be right, but could be wrong just as well.
LFC_Bitcoin
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November 30, 2018, 08:37:39 PM
#437255

Just merited a quote instead of the original.

You guys look all the same with that hats.

 ?? These hats are more unique than a Bitcoin address.



I will wear mine when this signature campaign Iím in ends. I sort of want to wear it now & wave the pay from the campaign but Iíll wait until it ends Grin

LFC hat will be worn early New Year!

Will this hat fad last until the new year?  you could become a late adopter, perhaps?
What the fuck do you mean "fad"?

A fad is like a trend/fashion that passes. Kind of like a haircut or sneakers that arenít cool for long
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November 30, 2018, 08:38:53 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)
#437256

The bottom is not in.

This isnít about price, itís about time.  We havenít had enough time to digest the last bull market. 

We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019.  I canít give you a price target because itís not about price. 

Well, what this contention is based on, exactly?
There is no law that in bitcoin bear markets have to last the same time as bull markets (or longer).
In US stocks market, by comparison, bull markets typically last longer (in time) than bear markets (at least in the last 100-120 years).
I "digested" the last bull market just fine, so I vote for bull resumption earlier than mid 2019.

TL;DR Basically, this is just an opinion that is not based on anything else than your "gut". It could be right, but could be wrong just as well.


WheatBits has been shooting the acid directly into the balls of his eyes. I believe this was jojo's idea. We can all see through time now.

Trust us.
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November 30, 2018, 08:40:10 PM
Merited by BTCMILLIONAIRE (1)
#437257

Just merited a quote instead of the original.

You guys look all the same with that hats.

 ?? These hats are more unique than a Bitcoin address.



I will wear mine when this signature campaign Iím in ends. I sort of want to wear it now & wave the pay from the campaign but Iíll wait until it ends Grin

LFC hat will be worn early New Year!

Will this hat fad last until the new year?  you could become a late adopter, perhaps?
What the fuck do you mean "fad"?

One way to rile up folks... talk about something meaningful, hats.

hahahahahahaha
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November 30, 2018, 08:41:04 PM
#437258

Just merited a quote instead of the original.

You guys look all the same with that hats.

 ?? These hats are more unique than a Bitcoin address.



I will wear mine when this signature campaign Iím in ends. I sort of want to wear it now & wave the pay from the campaign but Iíll wait until it ends Grin

LFC hat will be worn early New Year!

Will this hat fad last until the new year?  you could become a late adopter, perhaps?
What the fuck do you mean "fad"?

A fad is like a trend/fashion that passes. Kind of like a haircut or sneakers that arenít cool for long
I'm not sure if you're trying to whoosh me or not.
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November 30, 2018, 08:50:11 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)
#437259

Here is my attempt at btc bottoming fundamental analysis:

Bitcoin mining difficulty peaked on 9/30/2018, then went flat, now rapidly declining.
The last time this happened on a sustained basis was during Nov 2011 bottom.

In 2011 it took four months before market bottomed and decline in difficulty stopped (in correlation with the price rebound).
Counting from 9/30, we are already two months into difficulty decline period.
If total decline period is to last only four months, we would need to turn around (price-wise) within a month (or already) to get to the rise again by the end of four months period.
One may argue that it could last longer, but nobody knows what the result of such decline would be on system functioning. Yes, difficulty would slowly adjust downwards and relieve the pressure on miners, but it takes two weeks for adjustment, which might be too slow for some.

IF, on the other hand, you would continue both price and difficulty decline until mid 2019, bitcoin might be in jeopardy by the time it turns around there.

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November 30, 2018, 08:54:35 PM
#437260

The bottom is not in.

This isn’t about price, it’s about time.  We haven’t had enough time to digest the last bull market. 

We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019.  I can’t give you a price target because it’s not about price. 
I believe we won't go lower than 3k or something around this and, if that will be the case, those price windows will be available just for a short time, it probably won't stabilize on those prices for a while.
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