What are you thinking LFC? I recall that several days ago, you were a bit more hesitant about attempting to catch a falling knife - as many of us likely got a bit nervous about how fast the damned thing was falling and if there was going to be any bounce in the near terms.... and at least for now, it seems that we have a bit of a resting point and reconsideration of price direction.
I already bought some in the $3,500s, and $3,800s, and of course supra $4k, so probably my next buy would not be until about $3.2k... ... sometimes I will play around with my orders, and then if some sells execute, then I don't mind buying again, too, which I did have some sells in the lower $4k... so will be considering whether I need to adjust what I already have out there.
Bottom is in? 50/50? Hairy? 40/60? Actually, I will admit that based on recent happenings, even I am coming around a bit to the possibility that the bottom might not be in, and maybe I am 47/53-ish.. at least, at the moment that I am typing this.
Interesting thing about bitcoin is that our predictions can change a bit on a daily or a 3 day basis or a weekly basis, depending on momentum and if whatever current consolidation range is getting pushed in one direction or another. of course, news events too (which can reflect public sentiment)... Maybe now, we have something like $3,800 to $4,350.. so maybe we shouldn't get too excited unless the edges of those break?
Personally I think the bottom is in Jay,
Sounds like you are in the 75/25 camp, or something like that.
I never feel like it is good for my psyche to have that much confidence, that is why I just (in the last post) put myself at about 47/53... maybe if we play around in these territories for a while, I might convert into a 53/47-ish kind of guy.. but I cannot say for sure... and also, when there is a lot of movement, confidence lowers about any kind of prediction, at least for me, and it can just take a bit of time to watch it play out and to attempt to get bearings back.
I think we’ll trade in the $3,500 to $5,000 range for a while though.
Fair enough on that one.
I already have a nice stash of coins but you can never have enough. It’s a once in a lifetime opportunity so load up what you can afford to as & when you can.
Actually, for us HODLers and longer time-horizon thinkers (even though I would not really consider 2021 to be a really long time horizon), or whatever the fuck we might be called, there is a kind of getting a stake in the thing that goes on in the early stages, but then maintenance is also going to include some ongoing accumulation because it is likely that we still have some discretion over ongoing cashflow that we have, and if we did not make some bad decisions and over invest and engage in some unnecessary panic losses (which also could just be part of the learning process about these kinds of highly volatile and new asset class markets)
I panicked a lot as we were dropping from 7k down to 3.5k (I shouldn’t have, I’ve been in a worse situation in 2014 when at one point I was literally 80% down on my investment. Even now I’m over 9 x up on what I’ve invested).
Of course, I had seen some of your old posts and strategies, since you were kind of a highlighted special here in WO thread in recent times, and some of our strategies differed in the early days... yet I was pretty highly down too... I believe that my max amount of down was in the 65% territory... and during that time, I was trying to figure out ways to be prudent, and I also realized that every extra dollar that I put into bitcoin would bring my cost per BTC down by quite a lot, so there was a considerable incentive to buy more BTC - even while at that same time it was scary (and perhaps seemingly lacking of prudence) to invest more into something that you already had a lot invested into and was underwater.
I am probably in around 5x up territory currently, depending upon how matters are calculated. It can become a bit complicated to calculate sometimes... but the point for both you and me remains very similar in that there were times of considerable negative value as compared to currently having decently sized equity and cushion in the who investment. From the outset, I considered investing into bitcoin as a kind of novel investment, and I thought that if I can get it to perform equally or even in the ballpark of my traditional investments (which tend to average in about the 5% to 6% territory), then I am doing quite well... and think about it, 5x in five years, is quite well in a kind of 100% per year arena (with a decent amount of cushion). I am not even calculating accurately because it's not like I put all of my money in on day 1, so when dollar cost averaging in, it can be a decently greater calculation obstacle to figure out overall average return - yet some people will make attempts to take snapshots, such as where they were at at the end of each calendar year, and then attempt to average it out from that (even though those would be kind of weighted averages since the BTC balance would be different each snapshot, too).
Basically I’m calm & relaxed now after the initial shock of dropping so much, so fast from 7k or 8k to 3.5k.
Nothing’s going to phase me now, I have strong hands & I can HODL until at least 2021 - 2022 like I’ve always said.
So it’s simply time to get on with our boring jobs/businesses until moon launch.
I think that part of my goal has been to attempt to make bitcoin a more boring investment for me, but having so much ongoing action and drama in the bitcoin space (and the ongoing attacks on bitcoin) seems to cause some inabilities to completely detach from some ongoing involvement in the investment... yet, at the same, time, I do believe that if BTC value does continue to go up in any kind of reasonable way (that is largely presumed to have high likelihood), then my goal to become a lot more passive in my BTC investment has decent odds of realization in the coming years.. and moreso the longer that I project out the timeline (and decent likelihood of enjoying while having some youth).
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