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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 35 (27.8%)
2020 - 51 (40.5%)
2021 - 30 (23.8%)
2022 - 5 (4%)
2023 - 1 (0.8%)
Never - 4 (3.2%)
Total Voters: 126

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21174669 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (24 posts by 13 users deleted.)
jbreher
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January 06, 2019, 01:23:46 AM
Merited by bitserve (1)

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

4 years? Maybe 80-85%

Good honest opinion. It is also in line with my thinking.

I understand some people say 100% (or over, lol)  as in it is the most probable outcome and they would be surprised if it wouldn't happen... but that's not how probabilities work. Otherwise someone would just sell all he owns and even what doesn't and go all in... which is a very risk thing to do unless it was really 100% probability/guarantee... which obviously is not nor can be.

Bitcoin has a favorable enough positive asymmetric probability without needing to exaggerate the percentages.

I guess you also would give a probability of around 10-25% to $100K in the next 4/5 years?

There's another halving in that timeframe. I'd say more like 75-80%. Not to say that it would stay there, but I think the next blowoff top will likely be well over $100K.

Quote
And maybe another 10-20% of never (in a reasonable timeframe ie 10 years) recovering its last ATH?

Maybe 5-10%

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Which is still a fucking good asymmetric probability....

::wink::
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micgoossens
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January 06, 2019, 01:31:01 AM

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

4 years? Maybe 80-85%

Good honest opinion. It is also in line with my thinking.

I understand some people say 100% (or over, lol)  as in it is the most probable outcome and they would be surprised if it wouldn't happen... but that's not how probabilities work. Otherwise someone would just sell all he owns and even what doesn't and go all in... which is a very risk thing to do unless it was really 100% probability/guarantee... which obviously is not nor can be.

Bitcoin has a favorable enough positive asymmetric probability without needing to exaggerate the percentages.

I guess you also would give a probability of around 10-25% to $100K in the next 4/5 years? And maybe another 10-20% of never (in a reasonable timeframe ie 10 years) recovering its last ATH? Which is still a fucking good asymmetric probability....



but the %'s are just a speculative thought.... like I know if I buy a let us say classic oldtimer car with only 15000km
and pay 45000€ for it just keep it for a 4 years, and still know to make 20000€ minimum profit on it
so would I buy it and keep it, yes why not its a sure thing its 100% but even in this case when its a sure thing it still can go wrong cause of many reasons, so yeah thats also not 100% cause just nothing is 100%
always the unexpected can happen, but the ODDS against it are just to big sometimes...... like the BTC story Cheesy

NOW WHEN 5 DIG, cause would hate that NR of 4 years  Roll Eyes
bones261
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January 06, 2019, 01:32:45 AM

   So, I wasn't able to visit with my family for the holidays. We exchanged gifts, today. Look what my sister gave to me.



Should I eat them, or HODL?

HODL as a hedge. If Bitcoin were to fail those "coins" would probably never produced anymore and become a collection item. OTOH, if it succeesds the market will be flooded with them.

Looks a "perfect" hedge to me Smiley

Sounds like a plan to me. I will transfer them to "cold storage."  However, what methods should I be using to make my refrigerator more secure?
micgoossens
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January 06, 2019, 01:33:21 AM

@jbreher, are you talking BTC or the bit'alts ? to hit that 100K ?

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January 06, 2019, 01:34:08 AM

    So, I wasn't able to visit with my family for the holidays. We exchanged gifts, today. Look what my sister gave to me.



Should I eat them, or HODL?

HODL as a hedge. If Bitcoin were to fail those "coins" would probably never produced anymore and become a collection item. OTOH, if it succeesds the market will be flooded with them.

Looks a "perfect" hedge to me Smiley

Sounds like a plan to me. I will transfer them to "cold storage."  However, what methods should I be using to make my refrigerator more secure?

BURROW and mark
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January 06, 2019, 01:38:32 AM

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.
100.1%
No, really. Even 100% would be way too much.

Really.

Next four years ? That's an eternity for Bitcorn.

Considering that the next block halving will occur before the next four years, it's simple math and supply/demand that we'll be above $10k before then.

I BELIEVE !!!

Yeah but 100% doesn't exist in anything. Otherwise you would just sell everything and put it into Bitcoin again. Let's just say you consider a 95% chance? That is still a fucking awesome asymmetric bet!

https://www.businessinsider.nl/didi-taihuttu-sold-everything-for-bitcoin-fans-2017-12/?international=true&r=US

He's the famous man everyone knows from the news in Belgium & the Netherlands. Sold everything (incl his house) to invest in BTC . Some think he's insane, some think he's brilliant.

I think he is sorta insane no matter what the outcome is. If Bitcoin goes to $100K and he is able to hodl until then some would say he was brilliant... not me. There is high probability the outcome will be good, but still it does look like a very risky/insane thing to do. I wish him all the luck of course!
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January 06, 2019, 01:40:43 AM
Merited by micgoossens (10), bitserve (1)

Thanks for the merits, dear sirs. Much appreciated Smiley
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January 06, 2019, 01:48:16 AM

Thanks for the merits, dear sirs. Much appreciated Smiley

F*** i have difficulties with keeping those sendables......  but you got so much activity just need some more MERIT to get it to HERO, and i was waiting to, for once be the one that could give a JUMP KICK under the ass of getting there
(also THX to marcus, otherwise i was sitting with 0Smertis as a bum as well)
also think those 10 are very very very well spend
the rest of them will flow in smaller amounts Grin
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January 06, 2019, 01:49:14 AM
Merited by bones261 (2)

   So, I wasn't able to visit with my family for the holidays. We exchanged gifts, today. Look what my sister gave to me.



Should I eat them, or HODL?

HODL as a hedge. If Bitcoin were to fail those "coins" would probably never produced anymore and become a collection item. OTOH, if it succeesds the market will be flooded with them.

Looks a "perfect" hedge to me Smiley

Sounds like a plan to me. I will transfer them to "cold storage."  However, what methods should I be using to make my refrigerator more secure?



Source: http://www.lockthefridge.com/
bitserve
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January 06, 2019, 01:51:35 AM

Thanks for the merits, dear sirs. Much appreciated Smiley

F*** i have difficulties with keeping those sendables......  but you got so much activity just need some more MERIT to get it to HERO, and i was waiting to, for once be the one that could give a JUMP KICK under the ass of getting there
(also THX to marcus, otherwise i was sitting with 0Smertis as a bum as well)
also think those 10 are very very very well spend
the rest of them will flow in smaller amounts Grin

Yup, let's just make d_eddie a more than deserved hero already!

I would give him a good push if I could. I am sure there's people with some expendables that could help here!
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January 06, 2019, 01:51:59 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), bitserve (1)

And as a single anecdotal data point, I steadfastly resisted iOS, waiting for years for Android to solve their audio latency issues. I finally gave up. Maybe today, you can run music apps such as soft synths, DAWs, drum machines, etc. on Android. Back when I made the switch, the unbounded variable latency made it impossible on Android, no matter the manufacturer.

For all I know, you still can't, at least with the stock OS. It simply wasn't designed with realtime in mind. I think there was some experimental kernel that supposedly took care of that, but I never checked it out.

However, I use my phone mostly for... uh, calls and some texts. And I much prefer hardware than obeys to me first, and to its maker second. With Apple it always feels like it's the other way around.

Agreed, you never use plugins to record, only to mix.  If you record with them, you can't undo it.  Plug-ins are purely for the mix / post-production.

And if the pre-amp/ mics are good, a laptop is perfectly fine for tracking excellent audio, I would not think twice - the data rate is minimal. The room is far more important than the computer it's tracked on.  As for 96K? Why bother? It makes it way more cumbersome (at least 4 times the file size), but IMHO is pointless since no one can hear the difference. Except maybe dogs.

One exception about plugins: a zero-latency reverb if the singer needs it to feel comfortable and you're going 100% ITB.

I have some mistrust for laptops, but maybe it's just me. 50 simultaneous tracks at 96k... it just doesn't feel right.

And I agree, the room is the first issue. Take care of that, and only then think about boutique mics, preamps or converters.
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January 06, 2019, 01:52:14 AM

Thanks for the merits, dear sirs. Much appreciated Smiley

F*** i have difficulties with keeping those sendables......  but you got so much activity just need some more MERIT to get it to HERO, and i was waiting to, for once be the one that could give a JUMP KICK under the ass of getting there
(also THX to marcus, otherwise i was sitting with 0Smertis as a bum as well)
also think those 10 are very very very well spend
the rest of them will flow in smaller amounts Grin

Yup, let's just make d_eddie a more than deserved hero already!

I would give him a good push if I could. I am sure there's people with some expendables that could help here!

Indeed Wink
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January 06, 2019, 01:56:11 AM
Merited by gentlemand (48)

Wow guys now you're pushing it too much. I feel embarrassed Smiley
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January 06, 2019, 02:01:58 AM
Merited by infofront (1), bitserve (1)

Wow guys now you're pushing it too much. I feel embarrassed Smiley

d_eddie, I was born to make you happy.

Just like Britney.
micgoossens
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January 06, 2019, 02:04:28 AM

Wow guys now you're pushing it too much. I feel embarrassed Smiley

d_eddie, I was born to make you happy.

Nice job

Thx for the help again Smiley 
I’m glad i could help a bit as wel
But ofcourse its Nice starting 2019 as a Hero member
Congrats co BTC’er Grin
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January 06, 2019, 02:05:34 AM

Wowowowowowowo!

Congrats d_eddie!!!!

And respect for the giant push gentlemand!!
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January 06, 2019, 02:06:50 AM

Wow guys now you're pushing it too much. I feel embarrassed Smiley

d_eddie, I was born to make you happy.

Nice job

Thx for the help again Smiley 
I’m glad i could help a bit as wel
But ofcourse its Nice starting 2019 as a Hero member
Congrats co BTC’er Grin

Congratz on that btw.
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January 06, 2019, 02:08:35 AM

wow
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January 06, 2019, 02:12:55 AM

Wow guys now you're pushing it too much. I feel embarrassed Smiley

d_eddie, I was born to make you happy.

Just like Britney.

Now you help arrie with the papers, D_eddie right now.....

Ok Let’s discuss how you can help me ......  Cheesy  Kiss

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January 06, 2019, 02:16:45 AM

Now you help arrie with the papers, D_eddie right now.....

Ok Let’s discuss how you can help me ......  Cheesy  Kiss

Well, my skills include - sitting around, eating sometimes, walking for up to fifteen minutes without stopping, speaking English, looking out of train windows, um...

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