Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

Ok let's speculate.  How low could we go on a Gox collapse?

Referencing Oda's earlier point about the SR bust...let's remember that before it happened the sage PoV was that it would massively impact the market.  The reality, after it happened, was the price was back on track in under a week. 

The market(s) may actually respond positively to la vie sans Gox.

Complete agreement with your last line. Medium /long term it would likely be bullish, but it might throw us into  a short period of selling frenzy, if it happens.

[JorgeStolfi]

(2) for the first time it looks to me like gox might *actually*, *really* go down in flames this time. not today, not tomorrow, but drastically lower volume plus mounting withdrawal problems mean that 2014 might (IMO) see gox go bust.

To me, the great puzzle is who could be buying those coins at 130 US$ over market price.  (It is easy to guess who is selling them.)
The only answer I can think of should scare everyone who has accounts there, in cash or bitcoins.

[farfiman]

Ok let's speculate.  How low could we go on a Gox collapse?

Referencing Oda's earlier point about the SR bust...let's remember that before it happened the sage PoV was that it would massively impact the market.  The reality, after it happened, was the price was back on track in under a week.  

The market(s) may actually respond positively to la vie sans Gox.

Complete agreement with your last line. Medium /long term it would likely be bullish, but it might throw us into  a short period of selling frenzy, if it happens.

The press would come out and say : " 1st the CEO of bitcoin is arrested and now bitcoin collapsed!"

So yeah- at least a short term impact for sure.

[runam0k]

Agreed, Gox doesn't add anything to the equation any more. We need bona fide exchanges where large amounts of fiat can move in and out relatively quickly. More liquidity, less volitility.

[hdbuck]

looks like week end rallye is over... we going down down down now. the question is.. will we break last ATL at around 725 on stamp last week?? ^^

[fonzie]

looks like week end rallye is over... we going down down down now. the question is.. will we break last ATL at around 725 on stamp last week?? ^^

 

1 week MACD about to cross, 3d MA coming down. Hell yeah, we´re going to test out new lows, lower that many of you might expect 
Choo chooo.

[ShroomsKit]

looks like week end rallye is over... we going down down down now. the question is.. will we break last ATL at around 725 on stamp last week?? ^^

What rally?

[mellowyellow]

The problem with Gox is a bit like the 31st Jan deadline for China, nobody can go fully bullish while the prospect of them going under looms over us.

I say shut it down, let's take the hit, and then move on.... to the moon.

[MatTheCat]

1 week MACD about to cross, 3d MA coming down. Hell yeah, we´re going to test out new lows, lower that many of you might expect 
Choo chooo.

If Bitcoin can hold up above $800 area for next 48 hours or so, then longer term chart indicators might start to spell out a more positive picture, although we would still be left at the other side of that bearish descending triangle which did indeed result in a break down. I believe that there are 'mighty' forces at work just now that will do what they can to uphold the Bitcoin price for as long as is required until more organic forces return to the market to allow Bitcoin to be more self-sustaining.

From watching the NY hearings, it is clear that there are a lot of monied movers and shakers in Bitcoin to whom price stability and/or killing volatility (in particular downside volatility) is essential to their broader business interests. Now unless such entities have natural enemies out there in the Bitcoin ecosystem who would like to see the exact opposite, it may not be wise to bet against these people.

[mmitech]

looks like week end rallye is over... we going down down down now. the question is.. will we break last ATL at around 725 on stamp last week?? ^^

What rally?

the first member joined September the second joined November, so the price has to crash for them to feel good so they have the chance to buy in lower, the same when I knew about bitcoin when it was around 10 and I wished if the price crash to 1 so I can buy more.... when the price will be 10K the newer members will start wishing for 1000 and every drop will be a crash and every small rise will be a rally.... as simple as that

[empowering]

Bitstamp

Upside breakout scenario.

Bitstamp

Starting point was $820/5  today at around 02:55:31 PM

I have laid out my upside possible resistance/pivots/supports from my original post for easier viewing.

If we break out from now or over the next few weeks or at least the next month
then from   $820-$825   I see the following possible resistance/pivots/supports.
 
$840-$858
$858-$880
$880-900 ($900 psychological for USD)
$900-$910/5 (could be a psychological resistance level as also $908/10 = CNY5500)
$910-$928
$928-$945
$945-$970
$991 - (could be a psychological resistance level as also $990/1 ish = CNY6000)
$Cape Canaveral

Downside scenario from this current $820 - $825 channel I can see the possible supports/pivots/resistance

$825 (this price could also be a psychological support because $825= CNY4999.99)
$817 - We dipped down to here for quite some time a good few hours February 01, 2014, 09:32:01 PM now hovering on or around $817 within plus or minus $2ish- or CNY 50 short of CNY5000 $817 first acting as support then switching to resistance - within $2-3 but $817 is quite a specific number we have been pivoting on off for quite a few hours… not $833 or $823 or  $807 - but quite strongly pivoting around $817 (+- $2-3ish) ….quite interesting to see what happens…. next….,  if there is consolidation at this level then there should be a movement one way or other…  
$800 psychological
$800 - $775 ish
$775- $757 ish
$757- $749 ($740 = CNY4500)
$725? (edit)
$710/11 (edit added 03/02/2013)
$700 psychological
$682 (edit added 03/02/2013)
$642 (edit added 03/02/2013)

$817 Still bouncing along this resistance line

February 03, 2014, 13:51
1st RS $825
Pivot   $817
1st SP $800

In past 48 hours we have touched the support at bottom of 1st channel at $800  (actual low in past 48 hours  =$800.05)
Bounced eitherside of $817 for a fair 24 hours, and before dipping down to test $800 SP)
and on the upside we touched 1st resistance level above pivot at $825 (actual high in past 48hrs = $825.21)

Looks like we may get possible retest of $800 and pos lower soon, though I still think we are going up

[hdbuck]

looks like week end rallye is over... we going down down down now. the question is.. will we break last ATL at around 725 on stamp last week?? ^^

What rally?

the first member joined September the second joined November, so the price has to crash for them to feel good so they have the chance to buy in lower, the same when I knew about bitcoin when it was around 10 and I wished if the price crash to 1 so I can buy more.... when the price will be 10K the newer members will start wishing for 1000 and every drop will be a crash and every small rise will be a rally.... as simple as that

not quite my friend. first, it is not because we joined that forum at some date that we werent aware of bitcoin before nor already had some, and second, i am just pointing out that long side trend that sees lowers high on each week ends and higher lows on every week dips. or maybe you blind?

edit: @ shroomskit yup its not a proper rally but i used this word to highlight the suddent move upward over the week end even though it was not very important

[Sitarow]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

That's what we used to call in Naval Nuclear Power School a GCE (gross conceptual error). Trade requires two parties. Few will want to trade something that's scarce for something that isn't.

“Thank you. Since we decided a few weeks ago to adopt the leaf as legal tender, we have, of course, all become immensely rich. [...]

"But we have also," continued the management consultant, "run into a small inflation problem on account of the high level of leaf availability, which means that, I gather, the current going rate has something like three deciduous forests buying one ship's peanut." [...]

"So in order to obviate this problem," he continued, "and effectively revalue the leaf, we are about to embark on a massive defoliation campaign, and...er, burn down all the forests. I think you'll all agree that's a sensible move under the circumstances.”
― Douglas Adams, The Ultimate Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

Wait, I've just had a great idea for a new alt-coin.

[spooderman]

cmon btc do smthn.

[mmitech]

Ok let's speculate.  How low could we go on a Gox collapse?

Referencing Oda's earlier point about the SR bust...let's remember that before it happened the sage PoV was that it would massively impact the market.  The reality, after it happened, was the price was back on track in under a week.  

The market(s) may actually respond positively to la vie sans Gox.

Complete agreement with your last line. Medium /long term it would likely be bullish, but it might throw us into  a short period of selling frenzy, if it happens.

something something, racism, I am a pathetic person this is why I attack races and religions, something something, I just proved I am a total idiot...

can you please stop with your racism ?  

[empowering]

huh? where the? who the? whaaat? is this the same forum ?

[San1ty]

can you please stop with your racism ? 

Can you please stop quoting him?

[Sitarow]

can you please stop with your racism ? 

Can you please stop quoting him?

see ignore only works if you don't quite or you may have to be ignored also