Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

when THAT shit hits 21,000,000 then there's a BULLISH sign WO brothers

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[jbreher]

Logically the reasons behind hes unwillingness to disclose whether or not he controls the key to the genesis block make no sense too me.

Lets look at these rationally.

What are your thoughts jb? [reordered]

Most of your list seem to speak to soft considerations such as motivation and social aspects. Not sure these are amenable to objective analysis. But I'll play along.

Pros
1) Revealing control of the genesis key basically tells the world it was never about money.

I'm not sure how this follows. (If it were...) CSW does not seem very shy about flaunting at least some of his money. Enough so that the echo chambers collectively deride his pulling out of the high-end watches, or his Lambo or whatever.

Coins could and should have been dumped many times over if it had been.

I don't get how this follows either. To accept such would seem to obviate the position of hodlers. Which many here probably ascribe to. If one is 'all about the money', and one was reasonably sure that the price next week/month/year/decade will be higher, would one not refrain from dumping? I mean... I hodl, and despite my lofty view of myself and my motivations, I need to admit that it is at least in part about self-enrichment.

2) Even controlling such a big stake of coins that there was a true belief in decentralization. A hands off approach or at least a behind the scenes one over the project direction has been encouraged.

Yes. And if satoshi would reveal his/her/themself, I think it would be natural for their opinions -- technical and social -- to be given weightier consideration by the community,.

3) The incredible social network effect that would happen to Bitcoin knowing that the creator was still around and interested in development.

Hmm. I've always assumed that satoshi's disappearance was a net positive for Bitcoin. But there are so many ways to look at this single event that any possible list of considerations would be incomplete.

4) Banishing doubt over dishonesty or fraudulent claims.

This would seem a solid Pro.

5) ?

Cons
1) Opsec becomes increasingly difficult.

Opsec would become nil.

2) The continuation or creation of a cult of personality.

Oddly, I think CSW already 'benefits' from this to some degree.

3) Becoming(more of) a known fraud and liar.
4) ?

For a temporary lie, dispelled by ultimate honesty? Perhaps.

I've already answered HairyMaclairy. Somewhat obliquely, but honestly. Sorry I don't have a better answer.

[jbreher]

A detailed argument for the bottom being in:

https://medium.com/@renato_shira/bitcoin-bottom-is-in-35ff1e2b9403

I don’t agree with it but worth considering. 

Disagree with Realized Value being an indicator? Or some other aspect?

[jojo69]

wow

guess I better keep the day job

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Wonder how many people told their boss to fuck off, then apologized, then told him to fuck off again and what the longest chain was. Bart op.

[Last of the V8s]

blearghh

[Biodom]

if we where in SCI-FI

and there is an offer to watch 1 day in the future (whenever day you wish, just to see where BTC stands)

how much would you offer to pay for that and how far would you wanna look ?

Maybe i already did; here it is (for free):

I saw bitcoin at $605,000 in 2029

The setup of my "time machine":

The number of people in US with wealth over $5 mil (5-millionares) is increasing (1997-2015) at 11.35% a year.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/300451/us-millionaire-households/
Assuming the same rate of increase between 2015 and 2019, now there are about 2.09 mil 5-millionares in US and 5.067 mil in the world (US seems to be at around 41% roughly).

It is unlikely that btc would cause statistically significant increase in total number of 5-millionares, therefore the variation from expected number should not be more than 5% or so.
In 2029 the total number of 5-millionares is expected to be 14.847 mil with 6.135 mil in US.

A 5% variation from 14.847 is 0.74mil. Therefore, not more than 0.74 mil btc owners would be 5-millionares.
It is fair to assume that btc-derived 5-millionares would have the vast majority of their wealth from btc alone, otherwise they would be in the regular 95%.

The stat data below suggest that about 0.75 mil btc owners have minimally 7.44 btc:
https://medium.com/@BambouClub/are-you-in-the-bitcoin-1-a-new-model-of-the-distribution-of-bitcoin-wealth-6adb0d4a6a95

Therefore, assuming that 90% of btc-owners wealth would come from btc and not more that 5% of global 5-millionares would come from btc wealth in 2029,
the numbers indicate an approximately $4.5 mil value (90% of 5 mil) for 7.44 btc, making it about $605,000/btc.

[Last of the V8s]

Go back here and stock up

[Last of the V8s]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIb2lmHgd5s
Joe Rogan Experience #1170 - Tulsi Gabbard
1,112,437 views

[Dakustaking76]

For fuck sake another dip? I guess it was a fucking fools rally, when the fuck are we going to finally start to recover? I am just getting fucking mad about this shit now, not really depressed just how long could a fucking bear market be.

Can i ASK something, i try to understand but everytime tether will be printer
the price of btc is going down the suplie of tether is raised tot 1,93 biljoen
and iT was 1 week ago 1,86 biljoen..

And yes were so long in this bear market when will iT stop damn it..

[Toxic2040]

<.. Sorry I don't have a better answer.>

I appreciate you taking the time to respond to my poorly articulated train of logic. Instead of going over your reply's point by point I will just say I think there is little doubt that Craig was at or near Bitcoin beginning's and that he currently controls a large bag of coins. That being said, I think you hit the nail on the head describing what I was implying and that is what was/is or could be the motivation. The primary reason for showing pros and cons is that the pro list is pretty heavy imo and the cons seem trivial except for the opsec. Which in CSW's case might be considered a pro as he's ego apparently has no bounds.

Cypherpunk's have never been about money..it was always the cause. If you believe as I do that a cadre of these giant's created Bitcoin then the first two thing's I mentioned have extreme weight in a logic tree and any continued obfuscation appears to be a zero sum game.

I will finish by stating that perhaps logic and rational thought are not my forte, I am much more comfortable in abstract and non-linear thinking. What I do have and had over many years imho is a outstanding bullshit detector...and I have to tell you jb...something stink's with all of this.  

[Majormax]

I hate to say it, but could be another year or two of Bear/ Sideways market.

We can hope not, but past experience suggests realistic scenario is 3 years between bull runs. (actually getting longer with each cycle)

[bitebits]

OK Homer, I capitulate. If you somehow manage a themed hat I will wear it with pride.

Tempted to buy some, but I told myself for the first time to be disciplined and stick to a limit order 10% below ATL.
Perhaps the sign of the bottom reached, is actually myself. Let's see, happy either way.

I think that you are correct by 1) establishing your budget and your target buy points and attempting to stick to your plan and 2) assessing, from time to time, whether you believe that market conditions might justify that you tweak your plan to some reasonable degree.  Frequently, there can be a considerable degree of ongoing tension regarding whether tweaking is prudent or just to maintain the original plan.  Furthermore, the initial thoughts about tweaking might lead you to a compromise tweak, rather than the more extreme version that initially came to you.

My apologies JJG, double capitulated.
Seems like I am slowly going the Elwar way. Just can't help myself when at prices to be able to buy whole coins at once again.

[...] Bitcoin is a new emerging asset class, in the initial throes of price discovery. To attempt to time this market is madness. Price goes up; price goes down - you can't explain that. All we really know is:
1) whether or not the world knows it or not, it needs a permissionless uncensorable form of money free from the whims of central planners; and
2) a vanishingly small percentage of the world has yet awaken to postulate 1).

From these two, we can conclude that the long term trend is up, and will remain so until such time that the world at large is onboard.

Ignore the noise. Buy today all you can conceivably afford to lose. Hodl on.

Pit pat piffy wing wang wong.

I blame you jbreher! +1

[gentlemand]

I hate to say it

Isn't this what most here are expecting anyway?

I think there is little doubt that Craig was at or near Bitcoin beginning's and that he currently controls a large bag of coins.

Wut? I've not seen anything anywhere to prove anything.

[gembitz]

For fuck sake another dip? I guess it was a fucking fools rally, when the fuck are we going to finally start to recover? I am just getting fucking mad about this shit now, not really depressed just how long could a fucking bear market be.

 

hodlers be like >> weeeee

[El duderino_]

For fuck sake another dip? I guess it was a fucking fools rally, when the fuck are we going to finally start to recover? I am just getting fucking mad about this shit now, not really depressed just how long could a fucking bear market be.

Can i ASK something, i try to understand but everytime tether will be printer
the price of btc is going down the suplie of tether is raised tot 1,93 biljoen
and iT was 1 week ago 1,86 biljoen..

And yes were so long in this bear market when will iT stop damn it..

belgium or holland as well ?

same autocorrect with =iT  iphone?

[Last of the V8s]

note that when his first tweet was posted here, people were saying 'nah that's bollox' within a short while
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg49107258#msg49107258

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

For fuck sake another dip? I guess it was a fucking fools rally, when the fuck are we going to finally start to recover? I am just getting fucking mad about this shit now, not really depressed just how long could a fucking bear market be.

Check silver or DB stock. (Decade long)

[realr0ach]

[El duderino_]

^
Hahahaha

only me and my GF

LoL

much effort thrown in to stand up agains an 80IQ person



but nicely made UPPERTROLL and sidekick