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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 156

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21291433 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
LFC_Bitcoin
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January 15, 2019, 09:16:24 AM

Bitcoin bottomed around 0400 hours GMT on 14 January 2015.  

We are now past that time in this cycle.  If the fractal holds, we have bottomed.  

I just bought again.  

Happy to hear this from yourself Hairy.



Sent you my last sMerit.

Tell me to fuck off if you want but I’m interested -

Are you British?
What’s your employment background, I’m just curious where you learnt to read charts etc

Hi LFC.  


No I am not British but for my sins I have to spend a fair amount of time in the UK.  My employment background is loosely described as helping businesses solve stupid, repetitive problems, mostly with tech.  

I learned to read charts by listening to Tera on this board and then picking up some text books on candlestick patterns.  I follow a bunch of people that do Bitcoin TA on Twitter, but think most of them are idiots.  @MustStopMurad is good and @PeterLBrandt has his moments.  Generally I try to aim for TA that is long term, on based on weekly candles with multi-year cycles, focusing on price, volume, trend lines and moving averages.  Anything else is largely noise imho.  

PS fuck off Smiley

Cheesy

Thanks man, have a nice day Smiley
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Karartma1
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January 15, 2019, 09:41:48 AM

Last year I was a millionaire (in dollars).
bitserve
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January 15, 2019, 09:43:12 AM

^ Just so you can finally shut up repeating the same old argument over and over. Yes, we are going to a cashless society. That is probably already irreversible, it's just a matter of time.
No, I don't think states are supporting Bitcoin for that nor they really need to but if that were the case it would go to the moon first.

Now just fucking stop FFS.

What do you mean we are going to a cashless society?

The only time I have used cash in the past 12 months was when I was defeated by a parking machine in a UK seaside town which would not let me out without a pound coin.  I had to go to an ATM and then to a pub to buy a beer so I could get a coin.  Fucking savages in the UK.

Well that's exactly what I mean. I still profusely use cash because of reasons. Most people don't because of convenience. But we are going onto a path where soon will come the day that we won't be able to use cash (for the most part) even if WE WANTED TO.

Most euro countries you can not even buy a high end TV set using cash. It's forbidden by law. They will keep decreasing the max limits over time.

Why?

Because cash is way harder to control than banking fiat or even Bitcoin.
I only use cash for herbs or while in Japan. Too lazy to pass by an ATM otherwise.

What's the deal with those max limits though? And how recent is that? I bought a high-end TV some 10 years ago with cash and didn't have an issue with that. Granted that was pay cash on delivery, but still.

The restrictions started a few years ago. The max limit has been gradually being lowered. It depends on each country, currently it is 2500€ in Spain. They tried to change it to max 1000€ for this year, but it didn't pass. It will eventually do. The reasoning behind is that it is a way to counter money laundering and tax "avoidance" (which makes sense indeed) among others.

Also, 500€ notes have been stopped to be printed and will be gradually be retired out of circulation during the next few years, leaving the (even more rare) 200€ note as the highest cash denomination.

Yes, we are going to a cashless society not only because people is already used and prefer to avoid it and just use credit cards, but because the states will have more control that way.

No, I don't like it. That's one of the reasons I am into Bitcoin.
micgoossens
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January 15, 2019, 09:47:21 AM

Last year I was a millionaire (in dollars).

And Maybe now a more inceased position in BTC?
Better BE

Grin
Karartma1
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January 15, 2019, 09:58:54 AM

Last year I was a millionaire (in dollars).

And Maybe now a more inceased position in BTC?
Better BE

Grin
Not much Mic, not as planned.
I had quite a few unexpected expenses that required some fiat money that then I was not able to re-acquire and re-invest.
I am good anyway since with the current prices I should have a bit more time  Wink
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January 15, 2019, 10:02:09 AM
Merited by micgoossens (1)

Still in Hong Kong today.
I'm a bit disappointed with my investigations.
It turns out I couldn't find any place that accepts BTC as payment. Also, some ATMs have disappeared as well.



My first stops were on Cameron Rd. in Kowloon.
There's a tailor there named Raja Fashion who was supposed to accept BTC... well he doesn't anymore.  Angry
Same disappointment with the "Chic Oyster Bar". There should have been an ATM there, well they took it out.  Roll Eyes
More luck with my next stop, an ATM nearby located on Kimberley Rd. in a toy shop named Color Rich.



General Bytes ATM



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January 15, 2019, 10:03:54 AM

Then I walked on the famous Nathan Rd. where I found a few more ATMs.
First one was in the lobby of the Prudential Hotel, on the side of the front desk, a bit hidden.





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January 15, 2019, 10:05:12 AM

There was also this one... and no Starbucks doesn't accept BTC here. It's just that the ATM was next to the famous shop at the Nathan Hotel.



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January 15, 2019, 10:07:08 AM

I also wanted to check a Bitcoin accessories shop named "too free to fail" but apparently... it failed at staying in business.
So my last stop was another ATM on Nathan Rd. in the W Plaza... actually there were two ATMs in there !










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January 15, 2019, 10:24:23 AM

Cryptopia's the first exchange of 2019 to get hacked.

https://twitter.com/Cryptopia_NZ/status/1085084168852291586

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January 15, 2019, 10:28:30 AM

We know of how much?

Significant doesn't mean anything :/
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January 15, 2019, 10:32:17 AM

How are exchanges still being hacked these days? Have lessons not been learnt?
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January 15, 2019, 10:35:41 AM

We know of how much?

Significant doesn't mean anything :/

Maybe:

Quote
The announcement didn’t specify the amount of the damages.

However, 43 hours ago, an ETH transaction took place, seeing 19,390 ETH moving out of Cryptopia’s tagged wallet to an unknown address. The value of the ETH transferred is a little more than $2.5 million.


How are exchanges still being hacked these days? Have lessons not been learnt?

When you ask something like that, think of r0ach Tongue
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January 15, 2019, 10:37:17 AM

We know of how much?

Significant doesn't mean anything :/

I found this in the comments. I'm not sure if they lost Bitcoins too.

https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1084442862970945536

Quote
19,391 #ETH (2,438,152 USD) transferred from #Cryptopia to Unknown wallet Tx: https://etherscan.io/tx/0x8a7c2b34f23eee02401e7c3fa1ea2ce8d3132e7ca3811d673ca35898c9535aae
bikerleszno
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January 15, 2019, 10:37:43 AM

We know of how much?

Significant doesn't mean anything :/

3,5 mil usd for sure in BTC and ETH
bikerleszno
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January 15, 2019, 10:39:23 AM

We know of how much?

Significant doesn't mean anything :/

I found this in the comments. I'm not sure if they lost Bitcoins too.

https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1084442862970945536

Quote
19,391 #ETH (2,438,152 USD) transferred from #Cryptopia to Unknown wallet Tx: https://etherscan.io/tx/0x8a7c2b34f23eee02401e7c3fa1ea2ce8d3132e7ca3811d673ca35898c9535aae


mOgliE
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January 15, 2019, 10:42:37 AM

We know of how much?

Significant doesn't mean anything :/

3,5 mil usd for sure in BTC and ETH

Ok thanks.

A few millions isn't too bad. Won't have any big market consequences.
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January 15, 2019, 10:55:12 AM
Last edit: January 15, 2019, 11:13:17 AM by D. Lerk
Merited by Globb0 (2), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), infofront (1), d_eddie (1)



Welcome to participation, D. Lerk.  

Regarding your AMA statement, what has been your BTC investment strategy since 2012?   Have you bought/sold any?  Did you get distracted by any other cryptos?  Have you changed your strategies over the years?  or have you been scared out of bitcoin based on various FUD over the years?

Basic strategy has been to view bitcoin as a far-out-of-the-money put on the dollar (as the reserve currency, the one with the most to lose) with no expiry. Whats not to like about that? Very little cost to hold compared to the potential upside.

Bought more at key confidence building points, when it seemed to me that chance of survival, or even success, increased. For example, the non-collapse after the SR takedown and crucially for me, when the US decided to auction seized coins. This is rarely mentioned, but I think those auctions were a huge 'mistake' by TPTB. From their pov, they should have destroyed the coins - instead they literally legitimised BTC.

Sold about 3% in the 5-digits for treats, but not out of scale to general lifestyle.

Played a little with alts, missed ETH though (didn't like the too-slick build-up) now just XMR. Dumped the forks for one-sixth stash boost (thanks Roger). Thought BCH an obvious take-over attempt by the corps and China and would rather have sunk with the ship than be pwned by Jihan, the CCP and fvckin Calvin forcrissakes. Surprised that jbreher bought in, respected the guy.



edit: Hi Toxic2040, and thanks for the charts. I like that you present a range. 3 shades of grey, as it were.
edit: thanks Globb0, you can be a funny guy

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January 15, 2019, 10:57:09 AM

I wonder what exchange they use. Don't tell me they use finex.

Absolutely no way in hell are they using a wild crypto.

The article repeatedly references 'blockchain' and nothing but.

there are all kinds of off the shelf commercial blockchain shit. I posted a few years back there is an option to add one into azure.
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January 15, 2019, 11:57:11 AM
Merited by soullyG (1)

Bitcoin bottomed around 0400 hours GMT on 14 January 2015.  

We are now past that time in this cycle.  If the fractal holds, we have bottomed.  

I just bought again. 

I agree with your conclusion, but on one minor point, the absolute bottom of the cycle was the probably the low on Dec 15 (3122 on Stamp).  That said if the Jan 14th proves to be the lowest point this year, you are correct in the thrust of what you say - that the turning point has been reached. It was certainly the point to look out for and pass by.

I do agree with you, as you know and am glad to see your (superior) TA-based analysis confirms my own feelings and crude trend calculations.  I have also been buying, cancelling my low-ball bids and transferring in all available fiat to mop up what I can before the end of Jan.

It will not be significantly profitable in the short term, although I do think going over 10K before the end of this year is actually very possible (by early November, to stick my neck out).

All this is based on rough overlays of 2015 to now, which have thus far proved sufficiently close to be worth betting on.  November '15 saw a spike up to over 3x the January low that year, but it was a choppy ride to there, see charts for details.

I doubt we will see an exact overlay, as if it gets any closer it will be front run, or disrupted.  But so far...?   

DYOR.
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