Repost of a classic chart (source unknown):
Leading up to halving price starts to move. Maybe it's different this time.
My major objection to that graph is that the underlying cause of cyclicality is obviously the halving process (so far).
Considering that halvings are on the same four year schedule (or about), why would bull/bear cycles suddenly increase in duration at this moment in time?
Secondly, that graph is internally inconsistent. If cycle duration is increased by roughly 40% in the next iteration, then why the bull period before the halving is not increased by the same proportion. last time bull started in Sept 2015, halving was in June 2016, so bull started 9 mo prior to halving. Applying 40% duration increase would give us roughly 12.5 mo or about April 2019 bull start, not October.
However, IMHO, next bull would probably be the last one (or penultimate) driven mostly by halvings because at some point we would have to transition to a situation where miners make money mostly from tx and not from block mining.
That could result (at some point) in a bear market being longer than preceding bull.
Hopefully, it won't happen until ATH is 200K-600K.
Plus, pretty please, with sugar on top, Mr Market, could you give us some time for distribution (on top)?
All I ask is two weeks, tops....pleeese.....<Mr Market is silent>
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