I enjoy reading JJG retirement plans... but i bet that when the price starts to move (up or down) you will quickly change them. 2017 deja vu.. greed.. you name it
The likely fact that you might change your plan does not cause any such planning to be futile.
It would be almost as bad to stick to a plan for the mere sake of it, especially if you have come across ways to tweak it and to make it better.
For example, I had never really sold any BTC before October/November 2015 - because whenever I did sell, I would replace them within a day or two. However, in mid-2015, I created a incremental sell plan, yet when the BTC price shot up from $280 to $500, I froze. I cancelled most of my sell orders between $350 and $500 because "feelings of UP"... and I even generated so many "feelings of UP" that I bought a bit more at $500 at the peak of that BTC price surge in early November 2015.
As you may recall, it took until the end of May 2016 for BTC prices to return to above $500 and to cause my late November 2015 purchase at $500 to become profitable. It seems to me that I learned a lot from that experience NOT to become so emotional and just to stick with my already existing incremental sell plan.... It takes some practice to get better at sticking with a plan and improving on the way in which and the degree to which you tweak your plan.
My supposition is that if you do not create a plan and at least attempt to learn from the plan by trying to largely carry it out, then you will likely fall into a kind of constant emotional adjustment that you suggest to "gonna happen anyhow" - which is NOT true from my perspective of my way of attempting to plan and learn.
Good to have aspirations.
100x ?? I know it happened in the past, but it sounds too good to be possible in the future. Where do i sign for a 50x or a 20x?
Yep... you know that none of those are even close to guaranteed - but if variations of such price appreciation end up happening, then it is good to be in it and prepared (or at least hedged).
Many of us in BTC for a while recognize that similar lack of certainty proclamations have happened previously, so 2015 was a pretty dire period, yet if you accumulated a decent stash of BTC during 2015, you would have already had periods of time in which portions of your BTC stash have easily surpassed 20x and even perhaps 50x and gotten pretty damned close to 100x...
Past performance does NOT guarantee future performance - but there still seem to be decent foundational aspects in place that cause good probabilities that investing in BTC is likely to pay off handsomely in the coming years.
Dunno what created 2013 bull run.. was it Willy bot?
Does it matter? We are far past the 2013 bull run, so overall, there seems to be more than just a willy bot propping up BTC prices.
2017 was retail bubble and we reached 20k usd
Are you trying to simplify matters too much? by arguing narrow reasons for BTC price appreciation bubbles?
2021 maybe will be institutional bubble with its trillions stash.. leaves me wondering about the 100x again..
surely not out of the realm of possible outcomes. I would hate to NOT have any skin in the BTC game if knowing about these kinds of underlying facts and underlying decent odds for future exponential UP.
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