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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25439286 times)
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JayJuanGee
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February 14, 2019, 04:08:09 AM

You can sell like, $50k USD worth every week, or in some not-too-distant-future, that would be about 4.3 BTC per month. If you wanted to, you could do multiple withdrawals from several different bitcoin ATMs every day. It could take you several months or years to completely deplete your stash if you had a sizable amount to begin with.

Then you can keep the rest and wait it out. In the mean time, you go play with your money and put it in all sorts of traditional fiat investments just so you have something to do. (or put it into all the crypto ETFs that are about to come out.)

If you believe in bitcoin long term, then you don't really have to rush to withdraw, but of course, no one should be planning on living forever.

Traditional investment strategies presume an ability to withdraw 4% per year without depleting principle value (that can also be considered as 1% per quarter) - so the underlying assumption is that the value of the holdings, on average, are going to gain in value at least 4% per year average to make up for the withdrawal amount.    Therefore, in theory, so long as the underlying value of the asset continues to appreciate at least 4% per year, then you can continue your withdrawal plan infinitely at those 1% per quarter levels without depleting the principle.

Therefore, in theory, you are always withdrawing appreciation of the asset rather than the principle.  I find no reason that the same practices could not be attempted to be applied to bitcoin holdings because I believe that bitcoin has a decent chance of averaging at least 4% per year in value appreciation.  So, therefore, you should be able to apply the same withdrawal of value concepts, once you get to your withdrawal stage of your life. 

Of course, if you believe that you are not going to live very long (or you have a time target that you would like to deplete your BTC holdings that is sooner than infinite), then you can plan to withdraw more than 4% per year in order to draw down on the principle as well as the appreciation.

In essence, the more bitcoins that you have accumulated, the larger the amount you will be withdrawing.  Let's say, for hypothetical purposes by 2020, you project that you will have a balance of 50 BTC, and you want to begin your withdraw of 1% per quarter at that time for the next 10 years. 

Your withdrawal projection would look something like the below table:

Year           Quarter                    Balance             Withdrawal amount
2021              1                                50                   0.5
                      2                              49.5                 0.495
                      3                                 49.005   0.49005
                      4                                 48.51495   0.4851495
2022                 1                                   48.0298005   0.480298005
                      2                                 47.5495025   0.475495025
                      3                                 47.07400747   0.470740075
                      4                                 46.6032674   0.466032674
2023                 1                                   46.13723472   0.461372347
                      2                                 45.67586237   0.456758624
                      3                                 45.21910375   0.452191038
                      4                                 44.76691271   0.447669127
2024                 1                                   44.31924359   0.443192436
                      2                                 43.87605115   0.438760511
                      3                                 43.43729064   0.434372906
                      4                                 43.00291773   0.430029177
2025                 1                                   42.57288855   0.425728886
                      2                                 42.14715967   0.421471597
                      3                                 41.72568807   0.417256881
                      4                                 41.30843119   0.413084312
2026                 1                                   40.89534688   0.408953469
                      2                                 40.48639341   0.404863934
                      3                                 40.08152948   0.400815295
                      4                                 39.68071418   0.396807142
2027                 1                                   39.28390704   0.39283907
                      2                                 38.89106797   0.38891068
                      3                                 38.50215729   0.385021573
                      4                                 38.11713572   0.381171357
2028                 1                                   37.73596436   0.377359644
                      2                                 37.35860472   0.373586047
                      3                                 36.98501867   0.369850187
                      4                                 36.61516848   0.366151685
2029                 1                                   36.2490168   0.362490168
                      2                                 35.88652663   0.358865266
                      3                                 35.52766136   0.355276614
                      4                                 35.17238475   0.351723847
2030                 1                                   34.8206609   0.348206609
                      2                                 34.47245429   0.344724543
                      3                                 34.12772975   0.341277298
                      4                                 33.78645245   0.337864525

After 10 years of withdrawals of BTC at 1% per quarter, you still would have a balance of 33.78645245 BTC.  Nothing wrong with that, and the same formula to withdraw 1% per quarter will work, no matter what your starting amount.
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February 14, 2019, 04:09:54 AM

^ Good, now you are opening. But I am not trying to "outsmart" you, unless by that you mean that I am trying to obtain an honest reply from you for a yet undisclosed (but not particularly evil or malicious) purpose... which is something so blatantly obvious that couldn't be considered anywhere near a manipulation attempt.
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February 14, 2019, 04:15:17 AM

JayJuanGee, since your grasp of the present day economic system seems to be completely comical, let me spell it out really simple for you.  You're either going to have "UBI" and full-blown communism, or the bank's balance sheets implode through cascading deflationary collapse and metals are remonetized vastly higher to have any type of continuation of a monetary system at all.  

Under communism there is no usage of bitcoin.  In the second option, there is also no use of bitcoin.  No government on the planet is basing it's reserves and monetary system around bitcoin instead of physical metals.  If they used any type of digital shitcoin, they would be printing their own out of thin air and trying to force it onto you.  The Russians, Chinese, Turkish, Iranians, now Italy, and others have already formed an unstoppable pro-metals monetary system coalition in the first place.  The die has been cast.

You sir, are a monster. I just can't tell if you are trying or not.

It's always these two star posters nobody has ever heard of coming out of the woodwork saying "don't listen to the r0ach post, it's a lie!11".  Then they can't even explain what is supposedly incorrect about that factual explanation of the current economic system.

It does not matter whether you are lying or telling the truth.

First of all, you are off topic.

Second of all, you are the one who has the burden to persuade with both facts and logic regarding the truthfulness or accuracy of your position, and like I said several times previously, no one gives a ratt's ass about whether you are actually correct because - go back to 1 - you are off topic.
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February 14, 2019, 04:22:53 AM

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/02/13/republicans-move-amendment-against-antisemitism-thru-house-unanimously/

The crooked and bought US congress passes unanimous 424-0 vote attempting to outlaw "anti-semitism", meaning illegal to criticize or boycott international Jewry because the goyim are scum and only Jews matter.  In case it wasn't obvious who controls the US govt, media, and banking system.  

What do you suppose the vote would on outlawing anti-caucasianism?  Probably 20-400?  The faster the Jewish occupied US govt, media, banking system, and everything else burns to the ground the better.  You are no patriot attempting to prop this shit up.  We might as well pray for Putin to just go ahead and launch the missiles.  He would be doing us a favor.
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February 14, 2019, 05:16:10 AM

^ Since WHEN have you been so vehemently obsessed about all that stuff? All your life? Decades? Only past few years?
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February 14, 2019, 05:35:44 AM

I lived in China for about six months.  In Shanghai, in the French concession.  I was working for a company in the Jing'an district.  This gave me the opportunity to experience first hand what it is like to live in a country with little to no environmental regulations.  It has been awhile since I have been there so things may have changed a bit since but I have my doubts.

  • I went out to the bars on Bund one night and came home piss drunk.  Hopped in the shower and was thirsty and drunk so took a big mouthful of water.  I nearly vomited and was instantly sober.  Shanghai tap water is disgusting - no one drinks it except the very poor.  It tastes like liquid metal with god knows what mixed in
  • I was driving home in a taxi one winter evening and looked out the window at the beautiful snow fall.  Then I realised it was still well above freezing.  The falling "snow" was just fly ash from the local coal fired power station
  • A friend of mine landed at the airport.  I went to collect her.  On the taxi ride into the city she commented on the moon which was high in the sky.  I told her 'no' that's the sun and its just smog that make it look dim.  We then had an argument about whether it was the sun or the moon.  I was right and she was wrong.

Here is a picture of what Shanghai looks like on a typical day



Here is a photo of Beijing, which tends to be worse than Shanghai



A pic from Shijiazhuang which is further inland





You guys might think that environmental regulations are killing the USA and UK, but I suggest the opposite.  A lack of environmental regulations are killing China and places in Asia.  All the rich Chinese establish anchor homes in the West, in part just so they can get away from the pollution.  

Think twice before you advocate for getting rid of environmental protections.  You might think that the EPA is communist, but it is truly awful living somewhere without proper environmental controls.  I was offered a pay rise if I would stay for another six months after my contract was up, but I got the fuck out of China and have never been back.  Once I got off the plane in the West and walked into the airport parking lot, all I could smell was this wall of fresh air and flowers.  That memory is absolutely seared into my brain after six months of living in smog.  




Some more information just so you don't think I am making it up:

Quote
Can I drink the tap water in China?

No, the tap water in China is not safe to drink. Unlike most western countries where there is easy access to safe tap water, in most places in China the tap water, although it looks clear, is not safe for drinking unless it has been boiled. Even in big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, water from the tap is not well filtered, sterilized, or purified, and may carry hazardous contaminants like sediments, rusts, bacteria, virus, chlorines, or other heavy metals. Sicknesses like diarrhea caused by drinking unclean water may spoil your trip.
Source: https://www.travelchinaguide.com/essential/water.htm

Quote
China's air pollution crisis shows no sign of ending as nation fails to lower coal use  10 January 2017

For the last month, severe air pollution has choked Beijing and coal is estimated to cause about 40 per cent of the smog in the nation's capital. Other cities in the north, such as Shijiazhuang, have recorded air quality of 1000 PM2.5. PM2.5 are fine particles less than 2.5 micrometres in diameter that can lodge in the lungs and get into the bloodstream. The World Health Organisation says anything over 25 PM2.5 as a health hazard
 Source:  https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-08/chinese-air-pollution-crisis-caused-by-ongoing-coal-use/8168702


Look at you, using all facts and shit, lets not have that crap get in the way of a good party line.

I have no issues with green policy. We need to be smart about it. For instance if we turned all of our cars to electric today, then we would only have a 50 year supply of lithium for batteries. My point is the earth is finite in every regard. You need rare earths for magnets for wind turbines etc. and the leaching process to refine mined metals is highly polluting. With a bit of effort you can minimize the pollution but you also use a hell of a lot of fresh water.

Let me give an example of bad policy. Natural gas is considered a clean transition fuel ( by most nations ) to get to the quote clean economy. New Zealand has passed laws to stop all new exploration /( consents by the government) to search for natural gas. This is a green labor deal. We go into a worldwide supply deficit for Natural Gas starting in 2020. China is or will be soon the world leader in renewable energy. They also realize using natural gas will help get them there. ( Good Policy ) Last time I checked they have plans to increase natural gas use while decreasing things like coal.

Green is good when it is intelligent. At any rate there is a ton of money to be made on the transition if you know what commodities will be valuable.

just sayin..
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February 14, 2019, 05:43:46 AM

I would argue shitcoiners are not nonconformists and they're just being duped by shills like Andreas Antonoplous into conforming to centralized, imaginary, valueless tokens with built-in, rent seeking middlemen and away from real decentralized money like silver and gold, but if shitcoiners actually were nonconformists, this is the type of nonconformist they would be:

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February 14, 2019, 05:49:46 AM

I worked in mining for 15 years.  We have fuck loads of lithium, rare earths, gold, copper, coal, uranium etc.  

The calculation of a mineable reserves only references quantities that are economically extractable at the current market price.  Increase the current market price by 50% and you could easily triple or quadruple known economically extractable reserves.  “Hey where did all this lithium just come from nowhere?”  It was always there, just you would lose money with every shovel full at the previous price, so it wasn’t counted as a “reserve”. 

Half the time they can get significant production by just reprocessing tailings with modern methods.

That’s what people like Roach don’t understand.  There is a massive dam wall of supply of ore just waiting for the price to creep up a bit.  Put the price of gold up 10% and bam the Chinese reopen all the mines they shuttered.

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February 14, 2019, 05:56:10 AM

^Your Jewish scam post, as usual, omits the fact that under a gold, silver, and copper based monetary system, energy in the form of things like diesel is much of the cost to extract said resource.  You cannot 'flood' the market with infinite supply if you have to pay for the gas using gold and silver in order to mine gold and silver.  

You can only strip mine plunder and waste all the world's resources overnight if you can pay for extracting them with something like fiat notes printed out of thin air.  You can't plow through them all instantly if you have to pay with actual resources to extract resources. You also don't seem to understand anything based on artificial scarcity whether it's fiat bills or bitcoins has ZERO value and is just a man-made Ponzi scam.
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February 14, 2019, 05:58:51 AM

^ Are you so scared of the truth that you do not dare to answer? SINCE WHEN?
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February 14, 2019, 05:59:07 AM

For starters all haul trucks and excavators are going electric (better torque, far less maintenance) so the price of diesel is irrelevant you dinosaur.  Put the price of gold up by 10% and you can afford to run a shiny new high voltage transmission line to your mine to power the gear and draw on renewables or whatever mix makes up your grid.

On some grids, the price of power is going negative (you get paid to take the electricity) because solar is pumping   out more power than demand can absorb.
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February 14, 2019, 06:02:37 AM

For starters all haul trucks and excavators are going electric (better torque, far less maintenance) so the price of diesel is irrelevant you dinosaur.  

Plus as much vehicles are gradually going to electric, price of gas/diesel will lower in price because of the huge demand reduction.
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February 14, 2019, 06:02:44 AM
Last edit: February 14, 2019, 06:17:06 AM by realr0ach

For starters all haul trucks and excavators are going electric (better torque, far less maintenance) so the price of diesel is irrelevant you dinosaur.  

Nice.  You believe in 18 wheeler trucks run by batteries that take as much space as the truck's entire hauling capacity...or more.  If you were actually in the mining industry, you would also know there is no way in fucking hell you are running any of these enormous vehicles on batteries.  The tires on these things are the size of a house.  

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February 14, 2019, 06:08:31 AM

Good one dinosaur.  All electric haul trucks are particularly valuable underground, but they are starting to use battery powered in open pit ops too.

Komatsu HD605: https://im-mining.com/2017/06/28/e-dumper-electric-mining-truck-becoming-reality-switzerland/

Z40:  https://www.quarrymagazine.com/Article/8646/World-first-all-battery-powered-haul-truck-unveiled

If you look at the draglines, which are 10x or 50x the size of the haul trucks, you will realise they are all electric as well.  

Big Muskie is the world's largest dragline.  Built in 1969 was all electric, ran off a power cable.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Muskie
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February 14, 2019, 06:20:46 AM

I worked in mining for 15 years.  We have fuck loads of lithium, rare earths, gold, copper, coal, uranium etc.  

The calculation of a mineable reserves only references quantities that are economically extractable at the current market price.  Increase the current market price by 50% and you could easily triple or quadruple known economically extractable reserves.  “Hey where did all this lithium just come from nowhere?”  It was always there, just you would lose money with every shovel full at the previous price, so it wasn’t counted as a “reserve”. 

Half the time they can get significant production by just reprocessing tailings with modern methods.

That’s what people like Roach don’t understand.  There is a massive dam wall of supply of ore just waiting for the price to creep up a bit.  Put the price of gold up 10% and bam the Chinese reopen all the mines they shuttered.



Right I agree! Economically ex tractable. Is the key!!!! Have a look at Lynas ( Australia rare earth producer ) and the controversy in Malaysia about its processing plant. They are upset about radioactive byproducts in the refining process.

Anyways I have not worked in the mining industry but I understand it quite well. The greens will make some people quite rich who understand the resource needs to transform the economy. My point is most greens do understand the trade offs with pollution.

I have worked in Singapore on two occasions. I think we will transition to a green economy but we will need many forms of energy production. One example I saw in Singapore was at a car park. Every time you ran over what looking like a plastic speed bump it generated energy that was stored and reused on site.

Anyways I am happy with the green proposals because it will cause a boom in certain minerals. Remember for every Prius Car you build there is a whole the size of your house in Australia dug for the 17 or so KG's of rare earths. As you know we are talking grams per ton of extracted material.
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February 14, 2019, 06:21:54 AM

Never said that "normal people" push more for organic food than they cared about money. Simply stated that money isn't the only, or even primary factor in most people's lives. If it was nobody would be buying anything besides food. People would even live on the street if they didn't need an address for jobs and whatnot. Fact is, for rich people it's rarely about money, and for poor people it's about surviving - also not about money. Nobody truly gives a shit about money.

Well..you said people and it does not matter at all in the slightest as to their normality as to whether or not they are engaged with worry about money. Everyone does it to some degree or another and I would argue that wealth in and of itself requires perhaps more primacy in ones life than being poor does. As for your last sentence I would point you to look closer at history because this concept has dominated human culture for the last ten thousand years.

(Individual) Humans are breeding beyond their economic capacities, which makes them idiots. Hence, idiots are breeding more than they should.

And I consider things to go smooth in the sense that humanity, as a whole, gets exactly what it deserves. One example would be the tribal twats in the States flinging shit at each other from left to right and back.

If that is the extent of public human discourse in the 21st century, then whatever humanity has achieved as a whole is "things going smooth". Possibly too smooth for our own good. I'm not sure if we might not need some very serious event (WW tier) for people to stop being full blown retards over the dumbest fairy tales of problems.

You cant label them as individual in one breath then lump them into a whole the next. Sorry, dosent work that way. The smoothness of society and the achievements of humanity are open to debate I am sure but the examples you have provided are poor indicators as to what most people talk or are thinking about.


Then maybe you should start listening better. I've never advocated for a "not my problem" rhetoric. If I was to advocate for anything of the like it would be for a "don't fucking tell me what to do/think and maybe I'll consider helping you out as I see fit within my capacity" rhetoric.

This pleases me. I am glad you advocate for something.

In so far as there are any real problems they're with degenerates of the like that bring up gender pronouns in politics while aging, disease and hunger are still a thing.
Your slurring degenerates here sir to lump them in with politicians! I happen to know a few worthy degenerates despite the stigma. Carry on.

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February 14, 2019, 06:53:26 AM

Good one dinosaur.  All electric haul trucks are particularly valuable underground, but they are starting to use battery powered in open pit ops too.

Komatsu HD605: https://im-mining.com/2017/06/28/e-dumper-electric-mining-truck-becoming-reality-switzerland/

Troll post?  It pulls 65 tons, is probably expensive as hell, and requires the largest lithium battery in the world, while the diesels are pulling 400-500 tons.  I guess it might become economically viable somehow if diesel goes to $20 a gallon or something.  It also falls back onto the problem that it's rather difficult to run the entire world on electric vehicles, and that is the type of paradigm you're pushing for.  

Whether you're going to claim the studies are rigged or not by big oil or whatever is another thing, but I think they said running every vehicle on electric would only reduce "greenhouse gas" by 18% or something.  And the batteries they said create 3x more toxic waste for the environment than current cars.  In a monetary metals economy, you would also need to PAY to extract that lithium using gold and silver too instead of imaginary fiat.  So once again, you can't just strip mine the entire planet bare of all materials magically under a monetary metals system and flood it with new supply of gold and silver, but you can with fiat.
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February 14, 2019, 07:14:45 AM

while the diesel-electric hybrids are pulling 400-500 tons

FTFY

jojo69
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1/21000000 , the only math you need to know


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February 14, 2019, 07:17:37 AM
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people engaging with r0ach...check

W.O.s at each other's throats arguing politics...check

price flatline...check
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February 14, 2019, 07:19:21 AM

people engaging with r0ach...check

W.O.s at each other's throats arguing politics...check

price flatline...check

Busted.
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