Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

We're gonna need a whole new internet if JJG and Shelby start discussing things.

It's happened once before. Lets hope it never happens again.

If you have a link to that i think I'd waste some time on it instead of endlessly catching up.

I went back and did some digging, just for you. It looks like it started here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg41174792#msg41174792

All of Anunymint's posts were deleted when he was banned again, I think, but you can read the quotes jay posted over several pages.

Thanks for the effort man!

I missed this post somehow, I think I was skimming at the time.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg41191926#msg41191926

and the reply

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg41206519#msg41206519

and looks like this is the last relevant one

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg41207720#msg41207720

I'm surprised I totally forgot about the anunymint acct, that didn't last long.


JOJO Wrapped it up nicely.

the JJG overcomer has appeared

the prophecy has been fulfilled

woe and pestilence is upon the land

AHH, I remember now I was Hungover!

time to get on the bike and go get drunk.

Hardly seem like activities that should naturally go together.

I remember the GPU/ASIC holocaust that happened at that time though!

Sure it might seem futile if [you are] comparing himself to other WO members or even the hypothetical bitcoin holdings of other WO members (who are largely quasi-fictitional avatars)

<-- quasi-fictional avatar

The Schroedinger event may or may not be the $100K party. Only one way to find out.

I've acquired an actual, IRL jbreher photo. It's a violation of his personal privacy and secops, but who cares?

hahahaha

That might explain your bcash schism...


OMG....

https://youtu.be/rBYlgiKGYQQ?t=23

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[dyask]

The bull market came earlier than in 2015, so we cant predict how long will be the current cycle. It could end in 2020 or 2022, despite the halving.

Lol, this is bullshit talk.  When the price of Bitcoin would go from like $200 to $400 in a few days, nobody ever called it a "bull cycle", let alone a "3 YEAR BULL CYCLE".  People called the market exactly what it was back then, a Chinese pump and dump scam that can implode at any second.  Nobody ever made these retarded claims pretending imaginary, valueless tokens in a pump and dump scam are somehow 'guaranteed' a THREE YEAR bull cycle.  The thought is just laughable.

Bitcoin HAS NO PRICE FLOOR.  The bottom can drop out at any second.  It's happened too many times to count.  As soon as it happens, miners shut off turning it into a feedback loop to plummet the synthetic price floor even more.  Cost of production in Bitcoin is recursive based on it's own demand.  It's a self-referencing system.  Cost of production in metals IS NOT recursive.  If zero people wanted to buy gold tomorrow, the cost of production would still be the same.  That's not how Bitcoin works.

There isn't any such thing as a price floor without artificial intervention.  There have been many attempts to create such a thing but none have ever worked without government enforcement. 

Your statement about gold is unbelievably unintelligent.   If no one want to buy gold the price of gold would plunge until there were people willing to buy it.   In fact that has happened many times with gold and other metals!  While gold has physical uses, those simple don't support the highly inflated value currently assigned to it.   Besides it doesn't matter if something is useful is no one wants to use it or buy it. 

Look at the value of your silver!   It was more valuable decades ago than it is now.   The value depends on buyers and sellers, not on physical vs non-physical.

While you are correct that there is a price that could at least temporary cripple BTC and probably cause demand to decease more because of lack of transactions, that is something that can be adjusted.   Miners just need to be able to pay for the cost of mining.   It is a complete doom, just a major setback.    Gold on the other hand is absolutely doomed in the long term because there is just too much of it.   Right now supply is limited, unlimited supply will doom the value of it no matter how useful it is.  It will have value but just a tiny fraction of what it currently has.   

[jbreher]

Shelby Moore believes its going to $775, and links it with the scenario of a hard fork.

I believed in a three-digit scenario last year, but then the market recovered and we got out of the "despair phase" in the standard bubble chart. As you can see, the black line marks the mean value. We are already in a new cycle, and possibly in the "first sell off" phase.

For this reason I dont believe, right now, that we will see 3k again. We can still fall to 5k, though.

Yeah, Shelby / anunymint quoted for being a pie in the sky dumb-ass might be appropriate.  There are definitely bitcoin naysayers out there, like Shelby/anunymint, jonoiv, and others, who are wishing either that bitcoin has not transitioned out of its previous bear market (of 2018) (seems like decently odds of well-less than 40% of going back into a bear market now), and/or that bitcoin will experience a convincing technical obstacle, such as the bullshit lack of segwit adoption attack scenario, that anunymint continues to spout off about (seemingly less than 5%), which will cause BTC prices to fall or some other currently stupid-ass scam coin (such as bcash or ethereum or some other largely smoke and mirrors project)  to take up some of bitcoin's networking effects to become the credibly dominant coin.

Well, I don't place as much certainty into Shelby's recently published scenarios as does he. But if you are going to criticize his ideas, you'd look a whole less stupid if you actually read what he wrote, instead of inserting your own flight of fancy and attributing your way-off-the-mark statements as his.

[jbreher]

We're gonna need a whole new internet if JJG and Shelby start discussing things.

There's room on the SV chain.

Maybe.

XD

[fabiorem]

Shelby Moore believes its going to $775, and links it with the scenario of a hard fork.

He's basing the number off Martin Armstrong, who is a complete fraud.

Shelby sent me a PM rectifying what he wrote. He said the $775 price would come in one year, but only for what he deems as the Core version of bitcoin (after his hard fork scenario). The miner version, he said, would be one million.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

 So no matter how you try to be a massive cunt (as always) If you make a prediction (and get it wrong as always) you can always ask the thread starter to delete your posts and edit the replies you were quoted in (as always).

In this forum, you don't need permission of any thread starter to edit or delete your posts.  It would be a pretty rare circumstance that I would go back and edit or delete any of my posts, and I don't really give too many shits about whether predictions were correct or not.  Why does it matter?  Are you aiming for sorcerer status or something?

You're a fucking clown with as much credibility as a paedo at a prepubescent pool party.

Oh my.  You seem to be getting desperate with the creativeness of your allegorical ad hominem attempts.

So fuck off and stop talking your constant BS.  

I am making BS?  Look at ur selfie in the mirror.

Looks like this, no?

The whole world knows you are really bad at predicting the price, so chooce a diffent thread, something like... (Cunt Observer - JJG's Mirror trackiing & movement thread).

Make it self moderated or you might be shown up as a total fraud.

Unlike you, I am far removed from any practice of predicting the short term movements of BTC price, so seemingly stupid-ass desperation state, you come off as a strawman argument creator rather than making any kind of accurate observation about anything that might be meaningful related to my WO thread posting practices.    

In other words, U R LAME, as fuck!!!!!!!!!!
     

Make a long term prediction then.  a price and an approximate date.

You are only semi-coherent half of the time, and less than semi-coherent the remainder of the time.

In other words, let me see if I can clarify your nonsense.

You are making a BTC price prediction of $1k in 2024, and you are not asking me to make a prediction, right?

I think that your 2024 BTC price prediction is pretty unlikely to happen, and it probably explains both why you don't have any bitcoin, and whenever you get your hands on bitcoin, you are inclined to sell.  To the extent that you are genuine rather than a troll/shill (which I have considerable doubts, at this time), you seem to be quite out of touch with more likely outcomes and/or any meaningful ability to assign probabilities to future events, at least in relation to bitcoin prices. 

Good luck with your holding of fiat and various shitcoins, and now that you have sold all your bitcoin, said that you were not shorting bitcoin, and said your piece, you may as well bugger the fuck off, right?  What is your interest in this thread?  You are not likely to be correct, so merely, you want to come in, from time to time and cry your pie in the sky nonsense?

[JayJuanGee]

walls snipped

Damnnnn you want those 10 HM-merits badly, cause you gonna ow him those BTC? 

I wondered why he wasn't meriting anyone. Just mean-spirited I thought, but oh no, he had a wall up his sleeve.

It does look ever more like I'll owe him that litecoin doesn't it? Good thing I suppose. I think JJG said like 40% chance just now (but who reads all that?) but it's more like 25% to my tiny mind.

I may have been trying to be charitable to assert that there is "up to" a 40% chance that the bottom is not in, and you are correct that reasonable measures of the odds of a lower bottom are probably somewhat lower than 40% and may be as low as 25%, like you said.

[JayJuanGee]

JJG, you’re right buddy. I remember very well people saying the halving was priced in before the last halving. Some people never learn do they, we’ll do donuts in our lambos, snort coke & fuck hookers laughing at them

Hey, I am all for leaving open a variety of options, and I am a bit skeptical about placing too much reliance on fractal patters, but we gotta at least consider that history has something to teach us about various probable and possible outcomes.   So, yeah, in that regard, the bitcoin naysayers preaching the same illogical points that were argued around the last halvening comes off as unconvincing (better case scenarios) or disingenuously misleading (more likely worse case interpretation of their intention/purpose). 

So, yeah, I am not going to go take out a loan or place high reliance that my dick is going to be sucked in about mid 2021 or soon thereafter by some chick who would currently consider me to be "below her" based upon the additional enormous wealth that I have acquired and all the fun that I am having with my other accessories (namely lambos and blow). 

So, whatever, I don't have any problem being used like that, and it is not above me to refuse a blowjob that would have not have otherwise been provided to me under my today's finances (which don't get me wrong, I am far from being uncomfortable or lacking in any meaningful financial way today, it is just that my wealth seems to have decent chances of multiplying in quite grandios ways in the near future based on reasons).             

Mmm JJG you forgot bots don't have dicks...  Google engineers, someone? Please fix that bot...

I am NOT talking about no bot.

What I am expressing is a kind of reality that occurs when a guy adds money to the formula....

I have already experienced some of that eagerness and willingness to please with my earlier financial status, yet I anticipate more coming my way (along with any guys holding a significant amount of BTC) in the coming years.  Hopefully, you are one of those guys, but if you are not, I don't mind reporting back to you in a couple of years with a kind of blow-job report.   

By the way, I don't do bots, and don't plan to do bots.   

[JayJuanGee]

we could go for a drink
with roach
another 3some made in heaven
no but seriously
i don't do London

The last time I went to London three noggers tried to rob me with a knife near Picadilly Circus.  They didn't succeed but the number of noggers has probably multipled to infinity now and need a Jeep-mounted M249 to go back.  Anything belt-driven will do, though.

your mental state is pretty sad, roach.

I mean the fact that you feel some kind of need to communicate your categorization of peeps.

[JayJuanGee]

Shelby Moore believes its going to $775, and links it with the scenario of a hard fork.

I believed in a three-digit scenario last year, but then the market recovered and we got out of the "despair phase" in the standard bubble chart. As you can see, the black line marks the mean value. We are already in a new cycle, and possibly in the "first sell off" phase.

For this reason I dont believe, right now, that we will see 3k again. We can still fall to 5k, though.

Yeah, Shelby / anunymint quoted for being a pie in the sky dumb-ass might be appropriate.  There are definitely bitcoin naysayers out there, like Shelby/anunymint, jonoiv, and others, who are wishing either that bitcoin has not transitioned out of its previous bear market (of 2018) (seems like decently odds of well-less than 40% of going back into a bear market now), and/or that bitcoin will experience a convincing technical obstacle, such as the bullshit lack of segwit adoption attack scenario, that anunymint continues to spout off about (seemingly less than 5%), which will cause BTC prices to fall or some other currently stupid-ass scam coin (such as bcash or ethereum or some other largely smoke and mirrors project)  to take up some of bitcoin's networking effects to become the credibly dominant coin.

Well, I don't place as much certainty into Shelby's recently published scenarios as does he. But if you are going to criticize his ideas, you'd look a whole less stupid if you actually read what he wrote, instead of inserting your own flight of fancy and attributing your way-off-the-mark statements as his.

There is no need to study all of the words of a troll/shill.  Waste of time...   I read enough of what he says to know that he is a bullshit artist and striving to 1) waste the time of others and 2) mislead by lulling folks into his largely irrelevant and highly improbable framing of the argument(s).

He's also been banned from the forum for a reason, and it is not due to censorship.  It is due to his lack of genuineness and his misleading practices.

[Biodom]

waiting for bitcoin
to dominate everywhere:
a good way to age

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good morning WO
I am up early today too.

Observing @ $7,907

Trollgoossens, you are a very stupid stupid man.

If your icon is Trump then you really are a shit Roach. Shame on you.

*Infofront hides in the corner*

🤪

[kenzawak]

Westminster Bridge.

Tower Bridge

London bleeding bridge. wait isn't that in Texas

^ Lambeth Bridge

Charles Bridge Prague

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

All across the Thames 🙂

[HairyMaclairy]

yippeeeee
thanks so much
serveria.com
and Google
and of course
dear Mr Maclairy
how very kind
looks like you had excellent weather
do give me a bell next time you're in town
we could go for a drink
with roach
another 3some made in heaven
no but seriously
i don't do London
maybe like if you can get to
Oxford?

Thanks Mr 8.  I would be delighted to have a beer with you. Oxford looks like it is very doable by train from London so will give you a holler next time I am in the region.

[serveria.com]

JJG, you’re right buddy. I remember very well people saying the halving was priced in before the last halving. Some people never learn do they, we’ll do donuts in our lambos, snort coke & fuck hookers laughing at them

What I am expressing is a kind of reality that occurs when a guy adds money to the formula....

I have already experienced some of that eagerness and willingness to please with my earlier financial status, yet I anticipate more coming my way (along with any guys holding a significant amount of BTC) in the coming years.  Hopefully, you are one of those guys, but if you are not, I don't mind reporting back to you in a couple of years with a kind of blow-job report.  

That is so true. In 2 years hodlers will only worry how to stock up on viagra as there will be a long row of hoes waiting to jump on our cocks  

[dyask]

The bull market came earlier than in 2015, so we cant predict how long will be the current cycle. It could end in 2020 or 2022, despite the halving.

Lol, this is bullshit talk.  When the price of Bitcoin would go from like $200 to $400 in a few days, nobody ever called it a "bull cycle", let alone a "3 YEAR BULL CYCLE".  People called the market exactly what it was back then, a Chinese pump and dump scam that can implode at any second.  Nobody ever made these retarded claims pretending imaginary, valueless tokens in a pump and dump scam are somehow 'guaranteed' a THREE YEAR bull cycle.  The thought is just laughable.

Bitcoin HAS NO PRICE FLOOR.  The bottom can drop out at any second.  It's happened too many times to count.  As soon as it happens, miners shut off turning it into a feedback loop to plummet the synthetic price floor even more.  Cost of production in Bitcoin is recursive based on it's own demand.  It's a self-referencing system.  Cost of production in metals IS NOT recursive.  If zero people wanted to buy gold tomorrow, the cost of production would still be the same.  That's not how Bitcoin works.

There isn't any such thing as a price floor without artificial intervention.  There have been many attempts to create such a thing but none have ever worked without government enforcement.  

Your statement about gold is unbelievably unintelligent.   If no one want to buy gold the price of gold would plunge until there were people willing to buy it.   In fact that has happened many times with gold and other metals!  While gold has physical uses, those simple don't support the highly inflated value currently assigned to it.   Besides it doesn't matter if something is useful is no one wants to use it or buy it.  

Look at the value of your silver!   It was more valuable decades ago than it is now.   The value depends on buyers and sellers, not on physical vs non-physical.

While you are correct that there is a price that could at least temporary cripple BTC and probably cause demand to decease more because of lack of transactions, that is something that can be adjusted.   Miners just need to be able to pay for the cost of mining.   It isn't a complete doom, just a major setback.    Gold on the other hand is absolutely doomed in the long term because there is just too much of it.   Right now supply is limited, unlimited supply will doom the value of it no matter how useful it is.  It will have value but just a tiny fraction of what it currently has.    

[serveria.com]

According to Grayscale, many investors are not aware of the bitcoin block reward halving.
As such, it still remains a key factor for the price and it is not completely priced in.

"We were surprised to learn that many of them were not even aware of this event." (Grayscale)

https://twitter.com/iamjosephyoung/status/1136949078879744000

This is both interesting but also scaring:

Intresting because there was a lot of debate if the recent price action was due to markets being efficient with people pricing in halving effect before halving actually happening. Public information being incorporated in current market prices is what characterise efficient markets. Something should be granted in a mature market like the one bitcoin begins to be.

This is also scaring because grayscale targets institutional investors. I would have tough this kind of investors had done the basic due diligence of the technology. How can be prepared to invest millions in BTC without even knowing what an halving is?
This is scary. They are ready to invest in something they basically don’t know about.

These "studious" investors that did their homework, do appear to have been suckered in for an 80% or more loss.  
However one glimour of hope I see, is the potential of approx 75% increse one year on from the 3rd halving,  call it the halving period average price.
So thats the potenial of an average price of about $11900 from 2021 onwards!?  

But that only applies if all is as perfect as possible!  I can't see it happening, that will be well over a decade and if still no signs of bitcoin adoption (i've still not been able to buy a single product at high street retail with bitcoin in the EU since 2012 when i got involved)

Whatever bitcoin was supposed to be, a currency or store of value, it's still not widley addpoted and heavily flawed.

Based on that and other TA and oppinions I've seen, looks like 2 more years of the bear market.  $2600 best case scenario or lower probable bottom.

Wow!!!!!   You are so prophetic, jonoiv.

Appears that you still have not given up hope to buy back some of the coins that your dumbass sold at $6k, either at a slight loss in a possible scenario or even at a profit in a better case scenario.

On the other hand, just think about the opportunity cost that you lost, already, including a lot of the stress that you could have lessened if you had not gambled your whole BTC stash (of likely less than .5 BTC) on dumb.

Will talking your book help?  Maybe it will make you feel a little bit better, but I doubt that many peeps reading this thread give you much credibility beyond perhaps some newbie readers who are like-minded wishful-thinking enough to buy into your book-talking FUD spreading attempts.

Have you seen a gambling-addict specialist, yet? or a fantasylandia correction expert, yet?    

I said by the end of the year ( that's also known as Nov/ Dec 2019)   or next year (we will call it 2020),  the price will hit around 2600 / 2500 or possibly lower.

Now do you think after the price dropped 18% in a couple of weeks, im going to revise my target?

You know like last time when i said at 11500k  it will hit as low as 3k, I had moments of bullishness during the long downtreand,  be prepared I may be short term bullish at periods in this drop, But im confident where it's going medium term.  So no matter how you try to be a massive cunt (as always) If you make a prediction (and get it wrong as always) you can always ask the thread starter to delete your posts and edit the replies you were quoted in (as always).

You're a fucking clown with as much credibility as a paedo at a prepubescent pool party.

So fuck off and stop talking your constant BS.  The whole world knows you are really bad at predicting the price, so chooce a diffent thread, something like... (Cunt Observer - JJG's Mirror trackiing & movement thread).

Make it self moderated or you might be shown up as a total fraud.

It's a no-brainer if you always predict dumps, doom and bear market then from time to time you'll also appear to be right.  

I don't always predict dumps.  I was telling people it would recover from 3-4k in Nov Dec 2018 and not to panic.  it did.   Usually when everyone is talking about lambos in 13 weeks im telling ppl it's unrealistic.  and when it drops close to 15% of ATH im telling people not to panic, it will recover.   Pretty balanced view.   I personally think this is part of the elliot wave and we are due to have another low before you can all start the party mood again.   More blood letting is needed imho. 

Really? Perhaps you could quote that post of yours predicting a "recovery from 3-4k and not to panic"?

[VB1001]

Good morning, WO,s

The graph is generating discussion, I like it.

[JayJuanGee]

JJG, you’re right buddy. I remember very well people saying the halving was priced in before the last halving. Some people never learn do they, we’ll do donuts in our lambos, snort coke & fuck hookers laughing at them

What I am expressing is a kind of reality that occurs when a guy adds money to the formula....

I have already experienced some of that eagerness and willingness to please with my earlier financial status, yet I anticipate more coming my way (along with any guys holding a significant amount of BTC) in the coming years.  Hopefully, you are one of those guys, but if you are not, I don't mind reporting back to you in a couple of years with a kind of blow-job report.  

That is so true. In 2 years hodlers will only worry how to stock up on viagra as there will be a long row of hoes waiting to jump on our cocks  

That's what I am saying.