Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

compression check on the girl's car;

165     15      180     170



no corn for me this month

[JayJuanGee]

Weekly close looks very ugly and points to a trend reversal.

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.

We might and we might not, lol.

Im more on the bearish side right now.

65% going to 6k vs 35% going to 9k.

Im looking for a short entry here.

Could be.  Your odds seem in the ballpark of reasonable, even though I continue towards 50/50 thinking because I hate to make any bets in the way that I approach my BTC holdings (which I prefer to assure that I am adding to my reserves, rather than gambling that I may or may not add to my reserves).

Anyhow, I merely buy if the BTC price goes down and sell if the price goes up.  Seems safe, no?

In this case, I have already sold all the way up to $9k, so in recent times I have been put into buying mode, so my buy orders have been executing as the BTC price has been going down.  

Seems to work a lot better than trying to guess, and even if I were to have more confidence - such as something above 60%, which you seem to have, and even if you are guessing in a kind of reasonable way, to me, it seems as if you are betting too... because one thing is to close a long by selling a little bit of BTC, but another extra risk is to add leverage onto the situation by entering into a short position (which is what you said that you are doing)... too scary for me, and too much gambling for my risk tolerance temperament in terms of my preference to preserve what BTCs I have worked so hard to accumulate over the past 5.5 years.

That slow buying is easy, however slow selling is more problematic, especially since some coins you bought 5.5 years ago, although it depends on whether you use FIFO or LIFO accounting (the latter is simpler, but maybe less common). FIFO would guarantee at least long term cap gains status, which is much lower in US vs short term gains that are taxed by your tax bracket.

In addition, in a case of an old coin sell, properly splitting off at least 3, maybe 4 meaningful forks is also an annoying task.

I will agree that accounting complicates matters; however, the point that I was making in my above post related to a practice that seems to be betting on one direction or another... namely down in the case that criptix was describing.

Accordingly, there have been a large number of folks who had been betting on down since April 1 and even before that - remember April 1 and crossing over the $4,200 threshold in a kind of violent upwards movement.  Thereafter, the bets continue to come in for DOWN, and yeah sooner or later the down bets are going to be correct... but are they ready to be correct?  I would not mind being able to buy some more bitcoin, but I also don't mind going to $12k before our inevitable meaningful correction takes place.

Just because we have a current BTC price correction thats gotten down to the 15% to 17% arena does not mean that we are going to get a 30% to 40% correction, which seems to be the arena that criptix is anticipating with a 65% confidence level.

I cannot help myself to continue to remain largely agnostic in my ways of thinking about short-term bitcoin price directions.

Sure, it was fair for criptix to select a price range of $6k to $9k because that seems to be going (in the ballpark) about the same amount of upwards or downwards price movement, of about $1,500 from our current price and assigning probabilities to those opposing directions... saying that it is decently higher likelihood that BTC's price is going down, rather than up.  Even though he is assigning a 15% higher likelihood off of my 50% thinking, he ends up having a 30% gap between his down prediction and his up prediction, which shows that the gap between up and down is greater than what it might first appear to be, and I just have difficulties assigning those kinds of high probabilities (even when they seem low) to predicting BTC's short term price direction - and further putting money on such a bet.

[soxxx]

It's nice to walk outside and be reminded just exactly where we are heading.

It's a nice place, I think that is cold weather place not like ours always summer(hot), where this located at?

I hope we're near heading soon the price of bitcoin to the moon.

#stronghands'19

NY it was actually nice today, usually not too warm though.

[Last of the V8s]

I've deleted a series of my posts from the 7th.
They sadly remain in quotes for now.
I apologise to all the good gentlemen of this thread, and will try to do better.

[VB1001]

Graph showing a measure of developer activity on Bitcoin: # of code reviews per month, for code that ended up being merged

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PYqieGQDKur2e7poxe7DD12pnmBuYxReFwNkAq8U1bo/edit#gid=643870595 …

Peer review is crucial for code quality, developer learning, and in Bitcoin: the continued integrity of the protocol.

https://twitter.com/pierre_rochard/status/1137789958478057472

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good morning WO. Bitcoin @ $7,648

Waking up at the early morning still continues 🙂

[Lauda]

Weekly close looks very ugly and points to a trend reversal.

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.

You know nothing, but might end up being temporarily right just out of sheer luck. Cute.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.

6k or 10k or 20k does not matter much for me. I am a long HODLer and I am hodling my coins until we are going to the moon.

[nutildah]

ok can't bear this any more
isn't theymos (very marginally) late with the DT1 list?
what's he cooking up now?
because this has to happen http://loyce.club/trust/ranking/1067333.html  
any of our posh friends hear anything on the grapevine? LFc, nutildah, bones  

I dunno, that's a good question. He is indeed late. Maybe he's re-jiggering the whole thing to put a cap on the size of DT1. Also, LoyceV didn't advertise his newly-published News of the Screws this week.

[Last of the V8s]

Weekly close looks very ugly and points to a trend reversal.

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.

You know nothing, but might end up being temporarily right just out of sheer luck. Cute.

Gosh uncharacteristicly grumpy this morning. Cute

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.

6k or 10k or 20k does not matter much for me. I am a long HODLer and I am hodling my coins until we are going to the moon.

the hodl life is so much less stressful than trying to predict, let alone trade, what with worries about exchanges and constantly looking at the price; can't sleep in a position, so bad for one's health.
#hodl2019

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

ok can't bear this any more
isn't theymos (very marginally) late with the DT1 list?
what's he cooking up now?
because this has to happen http://loyce.club/trust/ranking/1067333.html  
any of our posh friends hear anything on the grapevine? LFc, nutildah, bones  

I dunno, that's a good question. He is indeed late. Maybe he's re-jiggering the whole thing to put a cap on the size of DT1. Also, LoyceV didn't advertise his newly-published News of the Screws this week.

The loyce.club site is down. Is this me only or anyone else too seeing the same for the site.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

the hodl life is so much less stressful than trying to predict, let alone trade, what with worries about exchanges and constantly looking at the price; can't sleep in a position, so bad for one's health.
#hodl2019

I am in peace.
When price spikes I feel excitements and happy
When price falls I fell nothing knowing that this is the part of the process and if I have spare fiat I take the opportunity to buy more.

[Last of the V8s]

is down
whole world has come crashing down
what might have been may not be
cypto is done

[Last of the V8s]

yup, re-jiggering, he did warn

the hodl life is so much less stressful than trying to predict, let alone trade, what with worries about exchanges and constantly looking at the price; can't sleep in a position, so bad for one's health.
#hodl2019

I am in peace.
When price spikes I feel excitements and happy
When price falls I fell nothing knowing that this is the part of the process and if I have spare fiat I take the opportunity to buy more.

Nice. yup all fiat is 'spare' and should be spent on bitcoin and loved ones.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

is down
whole world has come crashing down
what might have been may not be
cypto is done

Crypto is rising (seriously) loyce.club is tried 🤣

Thanks for letting me know.

[nutildah]

ok can't bear this any more
isn't theymos (very marginally) late with the DT1 list?
what's he cooking up now?
because this has to happen http://loyce.club/trust/ranking/1067333.html  
any of our posh friends hear anything on the grapevine? LFc, nutildah, bones  

I dunno, that's a good question. He is indeed late. Maybe he's re-jiggering the whole thing to put a cap on the size of DT1. Also, LoyceV didn't advertise his newly-published News of the Screws this week.

The loyce.club site is down. Is this me only or anyone else too seeing the same for the site.

Yep, I noticed that. Down for me too. I suspect some sort of major changes are afoot.

Though not entirely related, Vod launched an interesting new tool on BPIP that keeps track of DT1 include/exclude changes:

https://bpip.org/r/dt1changes.aspx

[Last of the V8s]

oh of course.
https://reason.com/2019/06/05/if-we-told-you-neal-stephenson-invented-bitcoin-would-you-be-surprised/
everything makes sense now

Fall may not be Stephenson's best novel, but it might be his most Stephensonian.

At roughly 900 pages, it is a smorgasbord of acronyms and ideas, action and exposition, characters and subplots.

ps xhomex10 how are your Stephensonian studies coming along? Have you passed the Cert. Wafflology part yet?

[Ibian]

oh of course.
https://reason.com/2019/06/05/if-we-told-you-neal-stephenson-invented-bitcoin-would-you-be-surprised/
everything makes sense now

Fall may not be Stephenson's best novel, but it might be his most Stephensonian.

At roughly 900 pages, it is a smorgasbord of acronyms and ideas, action and exposition, characters and subplots.

No, I am absolutely not surprised at clickbait.

Why do you people keep talking about this shit?

[Last of the V8s]

oh of course.
https://reason.com/2019/06/05/if-we-told-you-neal-stephenson-invented-bitcoin-would-you-be-surprised/
everything makes sense now

Fall may not be Stephenson's best novel, but it might be his most Stephensonian.

At roughly 900 pages, it is a smorgasbord of acronyms and ideas, action and exposition, characters and subplots.

No, I am absolutely not surprised at clickbait.

Why do you people keep talking about this shit?

Ouch. Right in the amygdala, you bastard.
This time it's different? Ok this time it's not different.
But it is more about the Neal, who is of legitimate interest to some. To others, the Neal's star shone briefly and pallidly.
Have you read any?

[Ibian]

oh of course.
https://reason.com/2019/06/05/if-we-told-you-neal-stephenson-invented-bitcoin-would-you-be-surprised/
everything makes sense now

Fall may not be Stephenson's best novel, but it might be his most Stephensonian.

At roughly 900 pages, it is a smorgasbord of acronyms and ideas, action and exposition, characters and subplots.

No, I am absolutely not surprised at clickbait.

Why do you people keep talking about this shit?

Ouch. Right in the amygdala, you bastard.
This time it's different? Ok this time it's not different.
But it is more about the Neal, who is of legitimate interest to some. To others, the Neal's star shone briefly and pallidly.
Have you read any?

It's just weird. We are literally at the forefront of a technological breakthrough that could revolutionize the world, we stand to become filthy rich if things play out as they have been, we are the one percent of the one percent. We know how the tech works. And people keep paying fucking attention to scammers. WHY?!