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You can play bitcoin investment matters however you like but it seems like a decently postured asymmetric bet .....
It has always been an asymetric bet.....but that understanding comes with recognition that it is a bet, and thus has a finite probability of failure.
Going to our probability calculations, I now estimate a 65% chance we are in a bull market. The latest rally ironically reduced that probability, because it deviated so much from the previous shallow waves.
The move to 13.5k can either be seen as a demonstration of relative strength, or as a failed parabolic rally in a bear market, which is a much more bearish signal.
So, bull market 65%, bear market 35%. My breakdown of that :
New AYH within weeks 25%, bounce from support (at $6.5k, $8.5k) 15%, extended sideways consolidation 25%.
Slow grind down from here to below $3k 20%, dump followed by pump to a lower high 10%, crash to deep lows (sub 2k) 5%.
Those percentages are likely not a whole hell of a lot different from my own, but I don't think that we bounce around from bull to bear to bull so easily, but I agree that sometimes it can be a bit difficult to know exactly what we are in, so it might not be that we are bouncing around but just not sure about where we are at.
Anyhow, pretty much after we broke above $4,200 on April 1 and then we went to $6k ish and largely stayed UP for a considerable amount of time, that caused me to conclude, at first tentatively, that we had returned to the bull market. So going back to a bear market would require a decent amount of down for a decent amount of time, otherwise we are merely in a correction of a bullmarket.
So seems to be one of my criticisms of you, majormax, in that you are wanting to pull the bear trigger too quickly, from my assessment.
I find it bullish as fuck that our correction from $13,880 has only been down to $9,614... so damned.. seems to be bullish to me, even if there seem to be some difficulties getting back above $13k and staying there... Could take a few more days, or it could take a month or two to get back above $13,880, but that still seems to be bullish to me, as long as we don't drop below $7k. If we drop below $7k, then at that point, we can start talking about the possibility of bearish.. and even that would not necessarily be a given bearish, depending on context.
OK, fair analysis, I think. Yes, the market is now/still in bull mode, until confirmed otherwise. My posts are usually trying to remind everyone (myself included !) that there are different possible directions at every point in the market ....no matter how sure an observer may be, there are constant surprises.
Sure, but in the past year or so that I have been exchanging post ideas with you, you really do seem to incessantly and even severely gravitate towards bearish scenarios, even ones that seem to be a bit within the extreme and premature arena.
I suppose that there remains an amount of genuine personal variability with these kinds of ideas, and I know some of those kinds of folks in real life too, seemingly like you, they are even more cautious than what seems prudent (from my point of view) to be.... Like extreme cautionary, or maybe more risk averse than I believe to be reasonable... I have already tentatively concluded that you are attempting to post your genuine fears that you have, but I still gotta repeatedly assert that I find you to frequently be prematurely bearish on a regular basis.
I think I am also liable to appear open to bear interpretation :
Yes... exactly....
Admit it. Admit it.
1. As a devils advocate to the perceived bullish consensus.
2. To avoid disappointment .
3. To remind us that patience is required.
I am surely receptive to most kinds of "avoiding disappointment," which seems to be a frequent reason that I never really want to commit to anything much greater than 50/50 suggestions regarding my expectations of price direction. So, yeah, in that regard, if you frequently understate expectations or overly prepare psychologically (and maybe even financially, too), then you are bound to be satisfied when better results play out.
Based on some of your previous comments, we might have some similar practices regarding finances, too.. perhaps? Even if I am considering odds to be decently high for down, I tend to be too chickenshit to sell, so in that regard, my main remedy for such negative feelings is merely to figure out various buying points, in terms of perhaps tweaking quantity and changing buy increments. But, yeah, frequently, BTC HODLers/accumulators will show a decent amount of lacking in psychological preparedness when the negative scenarios do actually play out, and sometimes there could have been some needs to financially synchronize so that you don't feel so bad if the negative does come and if they negative ends up being much greater than anticipated.
I do agree that the action since 13.8k can be interpreted as bullish (although I'm presenting the possible alternative as well).
The level of 13.8k is very important, because, as it was reached in an exponential spike, it forms very strong overhead resistance. A decisive breach of 13.8 is less likely in the short term now.
It seems that I remain a bit more uncertain about whether resistance at $13.8 is either building up or if it really anything much to worry about.
I am hardly at all rattled by either the correction down to $9,614 nor the fact that the price is bouncing around between $10k and $13k, and even if there are several unsuccessful attempts for the price to get above $13k, I consider such lack of success to be a BIG so fucking what? In other words, the 30% correction down to $9,614 was well within a kind of range of reasonableness, and even 50% corrections are NOT necessarily bearish, when we have had a break out above $4,200 that occurred more than 3 months ago, and ain't even close to being revisited, at least up until now.
So, I have some difficulties extracting bearish scenarios out of seemingly normal consolidation that remains more than 2x higher than our $4,200 break out point, and that is likely part of the reason that I mentioned that we should discuss this bearish matter if prices break below $7k, and before then, I am going to remain mostly jubilant - even though I have also reestablished my buy orders down to mid $2,xxx, just in case, on scenarios that I don't consider to be too likely, even though I remain financially prepared for such (and financial preparedness does help to bolster psychological preparations, too.. .even while I am likely going to start to feel concern if prices go back below $5k or even $6k, which I would surely prefer not to happen in this cycle).
However, if price did move strongly above that , it would indeed be the super-bullish signal.
I do tend to think that it could take several weeks to get back above $13,8k, but who knows? Like I said, I think that it is pretty bullish from the mere fact that we are not going back below $9.6k and you are not going to get me to be too concerned in regards to my overall bullish sentiments until at minimum we start to approach $7k..
I am attempting (maybe not succeeding) to present a view which is neither bullish nor bearish. The market is neither of those until proven/confirmed.
I don't know about that. The market seems pretty damned bullish to me.
There is howard zinn expression that seems aprobo for this situation: "you cannot stay neutral on a moving train."
Yeah, lots of us like to present ourselves as neutral, but really sometimes neutrality does not really seem to fit very well, and a stance needs to be taken, which still might be neutral, but it is accepting and recognizing the more telling facts and logic.. which currently seems to be that we are currently in a bull market, until proven otherwise or the facts actually change. Accept, Majormax, and you will thank me later.
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