Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

https://twitter.com/CL207/status/1151229484089012224

Humans have 10 fingers, every time we go up by base 10, it is a new psychological paradigm. It usually take several month to tackle this resistance, we're 1.3 month in so far.

Also thanks to Phil for the commentary on the blow off tops on this view.

 I don't know what humans you know but i have 8 fingers.   

[goldkingcoiner]

Bitcoin going down hard

[JayJuanGee]

Well I did my part guys. Bought a whopping 0.1BTC.
That should stop the rot.

Wishful thinking and delusions of grandeur.

Hey.. .do what you can do.

I think that several of us might be playing around with those kinds of ongoing small numbers that also can add up to a lot of value in the process of stacking.

I recall in about mid-to-late 2015, I was setting up my various buy and sell orders, and even playing around with $5 increments and I could only authorize myself to sell very small amounts, because some of my BTC portfolio had buy amounts that averaged something like $500 which was way more than the then BTC price of about mid $250-ish... so I authorized myself to sell such small amounts that were based on purchases that I had made that were sufficiently below the then BTC price.

My then girlfriend would ridicule me on a regular basis that I was wasting my time with such small amounts of selling and then subsequently buying.   I kept telling her that it adds up, and really I am practicing and also generating a kind of insurance that is based on several calculations that include the size of my total BTC portfolio and also how much I make on paper when the price goes up .. but in the end, the goal was to both provide downside insurance and to stack sats (even though such "stacking sats" expression was not then in vogue).

Yes, and even after my laddered sell/buy apprentiship I kept being careful not to put the stack at risk and also being happy with as I call it, "Dust collecting".   After all, it makes 10% or something like that over a year... .

What do u mean 10% a year?

I don't mean to answer for Ludwig Von, but I believe that I understand what he meant by 10% a year.

Ultimately one of the most common occurrences with bitcoin is that it continues to be volatile to both the upside and the downside, so people who ladder trades tend to be able to stack sats, which can rise to the level of increasing the number of your bitcoins in the neighborhood of 10% per year.. assuming a kind of volatility and assuming that when the price goes up and down that you are measuring, more or less from the same price points during time 1 and time 2.

Of course, these kinds of measurements might need to be averaged over several years because it could take a few years for bitcoin to return to a price point that it was a few years earlier.  Also, if the BTC price goes down, then your value in dollars would likely be higher, but you would also have more BTC, and if the price of BTC goes up you would have more value in dollars because of price appreciation, however, if you engage in a relatively successful laddering, you would have accumulated more BTC overall, since in some manners, you would be attempting to measure your wealth in the amount of BTC that you would be able to accumulate at various price points, even though there remains a bit of a moving target in the measuring, like I already mentioned in terms of how long it might take for BTC prices to return to earlier price points.

Now, if you are merely gambling with your BTC stash or trying to spout out that you can make more money by trying to time the market (as you seem to be describing yourself as able to do.. and likely wrongly, because you come off as a fucking FUD spreading bearass troll), then in theory you might be suggesting that you could make way more money, but in practice, the vast majority of normal people have difficulties either timing the market or being able to meaningfully make money by trying to time the market.

Laddering can be a more assured mechanism to stack sats, whether you are able to achieve 10% in a year or if you might end up with much more modest results.. depending on some of the systematic ways that the laddering might be set up.. in terms of intervals and/or quantities.

Personally, I doubt that I make anything near 10% in a year, and likely my averages would be around 3% to 5% per year depending on how much price movement (especially back and forth) happens during any year and even maybe averaging over several years might give a better kind of overall indication regarding earning performance, consistency of performance or if such laddering might provide some other kind of value beyond mere returns, but instead providing a kind of peace of mind (which tends to be my main reason for doing it) in regards to being better able to deal with what seems to be near inevitable ongoing BTC price volatility.

Well gee thanks that’s a really long answer

I was hoping for something like: i loan out my Btc at xxx exchange to margin traders 😅

Well your "simplified" perspective did not seem to capture the concept very well, now did it?

It's normally a four year cycle, so we aren't in 2017, but we might be rhyming with 2015...

"Normally"

It's only been 10 years.

It seems obvious based on the monthly trend and broken levels that we're not replaying 2015. The window closed on that a long time ago. The closest parallel here IMO is summer 2016.

I been thinking this as well

Well, both of you are vague as fuck.   There is no real directional aspect of summer 2016 because right at the end of May the BTC price shot above $500, which was largely recovering from a previous price point and then surpassing it, and then by the time we reached August, Bitfinex was discovered to have been "hacked", which caused a major ass correction.. and then a period of uncertainty that lasted a couple of months.  So, which part of summer 2016 are you thinking about?

If anything, I would suggest early 2016 as an explanatory possibility, even though it is frequently difficult to make any kind of exact parallel because we are at a different point of the river when you get into such river.

[JayJuanGee]

Is it thursday already?

Stop getting so god damned prematurely excited about the possibility of thursday, Hueristic.

Focus ur selfie, focus.   We have more important battles right in front of us at this exact moment, including the possible imminent death of bitcoin.... seriously, this time..  

I'm becoming far too transparent these days.

Bitcoin has died 370 times
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/

Most Recent Death:
July 15, 2019 – Bitcoin buyers are only fooling themselves – again

Yes... but this is the "real" ded this time. Do I need to spell it for you?


This time is different.  Get a grip.

[prophetx]

Well well look not even a dead cat bounce ...

[JayJuanGee]

Well well look not even a dead ded cat bounce ...

FTFY.. smartie panties. 

[bkbirge]

So had the email notice to check my quarterly 401k action and this time I actually looked at it. My YTD earnings is at 25.0% which is flat out amazing for a 401k. And then I looked at BTC for YTD and got 25.9%. BTC continues to beat the street.

[degxtra1]

Most Recent Death:
July 15, 2019 – Bitcoin buyers are only fooling themselves – again

Yes... but this is the "real" ded this time. Do I need to spell it for you?


This time is different.  Get a grip.

Yes, confirmed, this time its officially dead.

RIP BTC

[ivomm]

In 2017 we had multiple crashes that led to 40%+ drop from the previous AYH. And the price always recovered. In the last month we had 2 crashes that led to a 33% drop from the AYH at 13800. Should we be worried? I'd say no! On the contrary, we should continue buying and removing bitcoins from exchanges. I still think that we may cross the ATH of 20K this year, but if not, after the halving this is certain. Therefore have no fear, just BTFD!

[JayJuanGee]

Most Recent Death:
July 15, 2019 – Bitcoin buyers are only fooling themselves – again

Yes... but this is the "real" ded this time. Do I need to spell it for you?


This time is different.  Get a grip.

Yes, confirmed, this time its officially dead.

RIP BTC

the next 40-ish hours (or could it be longer?) are critical to figure out if we get a bounce or whether we can stay above $9k.. then if we do not stay above $9k, what is next?  Is $8k pretty much open for grabs?  meaning is there going to be any support there?  I could not imagine getting below $7,500 without some kind of a bounce.  Would this be the second leg of the overall correction from $13,880?  or is anybody attempting to count legs, besides me?  Usually we would not get more than three downward legs in order to maintain a bull market... but I remain uncertain about what to call this phase of our correction, besides "concerning."

Well my buy order just above $9,200 has NOT filled yet.  I won't be disappointed if that buy order does not fill, but currently, I am thinking that the odds for it filling in the next 40- hours are greater than 50% maybe even close to 60%, and also I am thinking that there is an close to 60% that my buy order just above $9k will fill too.  I hate to call too many odds for down or to get too smug about down, and I don't even know the reason for this debbie downer... except perhaps normal correction momentum and just an opportunity for bearwhales to attempt to push the BTC price down as far as they can and for as long as they can (and the vast majority of other cryptos (aka shit coins) seem to be largely paralleling BTC's current price performance) during the congressional attention on "crypto" or whatever congress intends to look into this week in relation to facebook coin and perhaps corollary matters?  Bitcoin really affected by this except for short-term opportunism?

By the way, frequently when I start talking like this, the bottom is in, but surely no guarantees, that's for sure.  and yeah, ivomm, you are not going to catch me changing any of my ongoing buying behavior.. at least until we reach below $7k.. and hopefully sub $7k is not in the near future cards or in the cards to ever be seen again in bitcoin history....

[rebal15]

Most Recent Death:
July 15, 2019 – Bitcoin buyers are only fooling themselves – again

Yes... but this is the "real" ded this time. Do I need to spell it for you?


This time is different.  Get a grip.

Yes, confirmed, this time its officially dead.

RIP BTC

Don't worry, it is just bots dumping until they get the usd balance positive. Bots don't sleep. LOL

[degxtra1]

Don't worry, it is just bots dumping until they get the usd balance positive. Bots don't sleep. LOL

I'm not worrying to much, just trying to help fill my orders 

[VB1001]

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1151243027018473472

This will end soon, there is only 15% to extract.

Good Morning WO,s

StrongHats/Hodl

[JSRAW]

Kenzy got hacked again!!  already tagged the account, you guys should do the same if you want.

[makrospex]

Good morning @ $9.469.
Signs of recovery (before the next dump?)
Anyone else going to Bitcoin's funeral today?

[JayJuanGee]

Kenzy got hacked again!!  already tagged the account, you guys should do the same if you want.

I see there are a few red tags there already on his trust tab...   Is there any purpose to add more red tags, when the account has already been highlighted as a hacked account?

I hope that his BTC are safe.. and also that he gets back his forum account in an expedited timeframe.

Each of us  should be taking measures (and sometimes even extra measures) to protect our forum accounts, and I am not sure if his opsec is not secure..  

I remember some recent discussion in this thread on the topic of his opsec, and he had claimed to had been taking some decent measures, so sometimes it can be difficult to know what kinds of additional measures might be necessary in his particular situation, especially if it is like you say that if his account had gotten hacked a second time.. so if there was some continued vulnerability that had not really gotten sufficiently plugged up?

Sometimes we also have to take some decent security measures in our lives such as password managers or 2 factor authentication on some of our e-mail accounts.  I believe that some folks had suggested that some kind of additional 2 factor authentication should be added to this forum, too... and I don't claim to know exactly what measures would be helpful for this forum, specifically..   Anyone?

I had only been hacked into one time, but I had also lost access once due to my own making a mistake in how I had attempted to reset my password in a way that caused my account to get automatically locked.

Edit:

Oh fuck... looks like he is having some real issues, and some of his bitcoin accounts hacked, too.. fuck.. .

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5165936.msg51850222#msg51850222

real problems can come when your exchange accounts are hacked too... Frequently, hackers need a couple of forms of identification, and sometimes an e-mail might be enough, but then there can be phone security issues, too... or even issues with 2 factor such as google authenticator or authy.. or even passwords saved in google chrome and stuff like that..  so fuck fuck fuck...

I went through some of that too... and devil could be in the details regarding how the hackers get some of the information to be able to hack and then are able to reset other aspects of the information and passwords  and they work as a team, too.. so accounts can get hacked very fast and frequently any value removed relatively fast, as well... not reversible if they actually are able to make withdrawals of crypto, whether bitcoin or otherwise.. .. and sometimes if withdrawals are frozen by the exchange, they might be able to engage in trading activity on the account that quickly depletes the value of the account.. and I supposed that there are ways that they could profit from merely trading too, if they are on the other side of such trades in some illiquid coin or something like that.

[JayJuanGee]

Good morning @ $9.469.
Signs of recovery (before the next dump?)
Anyone else going to Bitcoin's funeral today?

I am just planning to buy BTC if it keeps going lower in fairly regular intervals (hate to give away all of my specific secrets).. and hoping (praying) for the best in terms of a bounce and then perhaps more convincingly an actual reversal of this so we can return to enjoying more UP, as well as planning our filthy rich futures, anticipating that outcome is still in the futures of HODLers and ACCUMULATors.

[JSRAW]

^ yeah account is already tagged and i agree with you but i felt that i should mention here as well because he hangs out here and his account can use couple of red trust from WO members too along with other community members.

he's in contact with exchange, just talked with him offline and he mentioned that his funds are safe.

[JayJuanGee]

^ yeah account is already tagged and i agree with you but i felt that i should mention here as well because he hangs out here and his account can use couple of red trust from WO members too along with other community members.

he's in contact with exchange, just talked with him offline and he mentioned that his funds are safe.

The headache of sorting through forum accounts and emails and things like that is much better than losing funds, but sometimes you might think that your funds are safe and they are not... so I am not always sure how to resolve that.

For example, I recall that as soon as my sim was ported in early 2017, I had received an email from bitstamp saying that my password had been reset.  I immediately hit the reply button that said "this is not me." but they still got the funds.  I actually did not freeze some of my other accounts right away, but I got lucky to save some funds from some accounts in spite of my slowness.

Regarding persistence of hackers, those fucks can frequently continue to try over and over and over through various means, which seemed to have happened to me for a while after I had been in the process of securing various accounts.  Kenzawak may have some of those same issues if he has a compromised e-mail and then if they are able to get into a few accounts, then it seems that some more extensive security measures might be prudent to pursue... anyhow, hopefully, a lot of this is able to be sorted out with Kenzawak being able to get his various accounts back and to increase security.  Actually, I recall that it took several months for me to regain access to some of my accounts, and then they wanted me to make sure that I jumped through a variety of extra security measures before they would return me access to my account(s). There are other details, too, but sometimes it might not be prudent to get into too many specifics in public either about what measures have been taken or even what the vulnerabilities might have been if it might remain a bit uncertain if some of the holes have been decently patched.

[Phil_S]

What does the 2017 vs 2019 one look like now?

2017 vs 2019 is doing fine.

We even saw similar mid-July drop in 2017.