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Question: When will we see a new ATH? (Credit to: Biodom)
2019 - 14 (8.9%)
Early 2020 - 35 (22.2%)
Late 2020 - 47 (29.7%)
Early 2021 - 14 (8.9%)
Late 2021 - 25 (15.8%)
2022 - 4 (2.5%)
2023 - 0 (0%)
2024 - 4 (2.5%)
After 2024 - 3 (1.9%)
Never - 12 (7.6%)
Total Voters: 158

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21430853 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (129 posts by 23 users deleted.)
VB1001
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July 19, 2019, 04:59:51 AM
Merited by 600watt (1)



Quote
#bitcoin 2012 Stock-to-flow model still works!
S2F model made with 2009-2012 data (only 4 data points, before any halving - green line) correctly predicted 2013-2019 (7 out-of-sample data points + blue line) with 99.5% R2. Current prediction: 2021 $100K, 2025 $1M🚀

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1151854806782361604

Get up and see the graphics of this guy is great. Wink

Apart from the graphic, now we are struggling +/- 10500, but the goal, is 10850 to start climbing again.

Good morning WO,s
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bitserve
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July 19, 2019, 05:08:48 AM
Merited by VB1001 (1)

^
Hi, bitserve, you only go out when there are green dildos. Wink

Sorta Smiley

To be honest I have also posted a couple times lately when the price dipped considerably, which is also somewhat "fine". Other than that I am lately pretty busy IRL renewing my new property as I am trying to do most of the stuff myself (got not much money to spare unless I used my BTC, which I won't). Of course i still try to read all/most of WO daily though just not much time to really participate.

I planned my activity for a longer "crypto winter" and Bitcoin being so much alive sooner came out somewhat unexpected for me. Fortunately I hodled, as always. Would be great if by the time I finish (still 6-12 months apart) Bitcoin would be over previous ATH so that I can celebrate properly. Time will tell.

In the meantime, enjoy summer time!
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yes


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July 19, 2019, 06:55:04 AM

Alrighty guys, tomorrow i will buy my first 50€ worth of Bitcoin. In what do you think should i invest afterwards ? Or should i invest into Altcoin first then when i increase my Portfolio i buy The King BTC?

...  Personally I'd stay away from altcoins.


Indeed, much too early to step into alts. Especially if this is new territory for you. It’s only for crazy gamblers willing to risk a sure loss for a tiny chance on a huge reward.
Pamoldar
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July 19, 2019, 07:07:34 AM

So this is what I see:

Today:  $10,610
1 October: $13,793 still working
1 November: $20,689.5 working
1 April 2020: $33,103.2 working
1 November 2020: $56,275.4 maybe
1 April 2021: $101,295.7 not working
1 November 2021: $192,462 recovering from a 100K party & traveling

Weeeeeeeeeeeeee

see my interpretation ^^^ above in red

Hell yeah! I mean good morning WOlend 🤪

Observing @ $10,460 and happy AF
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July 19, 2019, 07:22:42 AM
Last edit: July 19, 2019, 09:05:00 AM by wwzsocki

The majority of traders I know use Golden Cross and Death Cross to refer to 50 and 200 SMA crossovers on the daily chart, with confirmation following on the 3 day chart. On the BTC/USD daily we had a Golden Cross back on April 23. On the three day we are close to getting confirmation, not there yet though. You can look at lower time frames sure if you are a day trader but you will be getting a better signal to noise ratio on daily and 3 day charts. We briefly dipped below the 50 SMA on the daily but are now back above.

You are right but not fully. I try always to inform exactly about which time intervals on the chart, I am talking about.



https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deathcross.asp

As you see, there are some variations in opinions as to precisely what constitutes this moving averages crossover.
Depends on the individual trader, how he will interpret them. Of course on a weekly, 3 days or even daily, Death Cross signal is stronger as on 4 hours or hourly chart.
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July 19, 2019, 07:32:28 AM

Storm The Fed, They Cant Stop All of Us


https://www.facebook.com/events/448435052621047/?active_tab=discussion

Friday, September 20, 2019 at 3 AM – 6 AM

Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 33 Liberty St, New York, NY 10045



We will all meet up at the Dunkin Donuts across the street and coordinate our entry. If we naruto run, we can move faster than their bullets. Lets see them internal audits.

via Imgflip Meme Generator
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July 19, 2019, 07:50:35 AM

So this is what I see:

Today:  $10,610
1 October: $13,793 still working
1 November: $20,689.5 working
1 April 2020: $33,103.2 working
1 November 2020: $56,275.4 maybe
1 April 2021: $101,295.7 not working
1 November 2021: $192,462 recovering from a 100K party & traveling

Weeeeeeeeeeeeee

see my interpretation ^^^ above in red

Your interpretation(s) has been lacking, recently.

You know that I am supposed to be trolling you for your having had mentioned on a few occasions, in recent times, the "waiting" for sub $9k BTC prices, don't you?

I am "waiting" for a sign from JSRAW regarding when this particular bottom is "in"... Maybe the two of you have been conspiring on the side, recently... hahahahahahaha... to fail/refuse to respond to trolling?  

Different time zone bro Cheesy and I took your advice on health seriously, reschedule my conjugal visit little early so sorry for the late reply  Tongue
On a side note in a perfect world, no one should be allowed to make fun of my low IQ mind  Cry

@LFC : I am feeling like smarty pants not cashing out my salary  Grin
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July 19, 2019, 07:58:02 AM

Pussy like you have never seen before

https://youtu.be/FtSd844cI7U
serveria.com
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July 19, 2019, 08:10:15 AM

^
Hi, bitserve, you only go out when there are green dildos. Wink

Sorta Smiley

To be honest I have also posted a couple times lately when the price dipped considerably, which is also somewhat "fine". Other than that I am lately pretty busy IRL renewing my new property as I am trying to do most of the stuff myself (got not much money to spare unless I used my BTC, which I won't). Of course i still try to read all/most of WO daily though just not much time to really participate.

I planned my activity for a longer "crypto winter" and Bitcoin being so much alive sooner came out somewhat unexpected for me. Fortunately I hodled, as always. Would be great if by the time I finish (still 6-12 months apart) Bitcoin would be over previous ATH so that I can celebrate properly. Time will tell.

In the meantime, enjoy summer time!

HODL a bit longer and enjoy summer 365 days a year!  Grin
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July 19, 2019, 08:38:20 AM
Last edit: July 19, 2019, 09:24:36 AM by fillippone
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Ouch:
*U.S. REGULATOR PROBING CRYPTO EXCHANGE BITMEX ON CLIENT TRADES

Just rewind a few days ago:
 WAS BITMEX ‘AGAIN’ BEHIND THE LATEST BITCOIN FLASH CRASH?

And yesterday opposite move, a huge jump in minutes.

 Exchanges under fire after suspicious ETH crash and today’s BTC spike

Apparently nobody cares about market manipulation, as Bitcoin isn't even a financial instrument. The point is KYC/AML.
https://twitter.com/HASHCIB/status/1152137255936503808?s=20
Quote
2/“The months-long #CFTC probe is focused on whether BitMEX broke rules by allowing Americans to trade on the platform, which isn’t registered with the agency, said one of the people who asked not to be named discussing the investigation, which hasn’t been made public.”

Back to memes and usual posts, then. Boring news.


ivomm
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July 19, 2019, 08:50:47 AM

Ouch:
*U.S. REGULATOR PROBING CRYPTO EXCHANGE BITMEX ON CLIENT TRADES

Just rewind a few days ago:
 WAS BITMEX ‘AGAIN’ BEHIND THE LATEST BITCOIN FLASH CRASH?

And yesterday opposite move, a huge jump in minutes.


 Exchanges under fire after suspicious ETH crash and today’s BTC spike


Closing this fraud exchange will be quite bullish for Bitcoin. We might have been at 100K already if Bitmex didn't exist.
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July 19, 2019, 08:57:14 AM

@LFC : I am feeling like smarty pants not cashing out my salary  Grin
LFC?
Attention my man attention! 🤪

You are looking at the avatar only 😜
wwzsocki
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July 19, 2019, 09:21:03 AM



Quote
#bitcoin 2012 Stock-to-flow model still works!

From what I see this graph shows only 8000$ at the end of 2017 when there was already a 20000$ price. Today if I can see correctly this should be already around 25 - 30K USD for single BTC.

Still, it could be a good prediction in a very long term, which is a million $$$ for single BTC in the 2025 year and if one doesn't look too much into details.
fillippone
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July 19, 2019, 09:27:24 AM
Merited by wwzsocki (1), VB1001 (1)



Quote
#bitcoin 2012 Stock-to-flow model still works!

From what I see this graph shows only 8000$ at the end of 2017 when there was already a 20000$ price. Today if I can see correctly this should be already around 25 - 30K USD for single BTC.

Still, it could be a good prediction in a very long term, which is a million $$$ for single BTC in the 2025 year and if one doesn't look too much into details.

This is a model based on the SF/price BEFORE the first halving.
It's a loose indication, with market price being driven by more "short term" forces.
Nice thing is that historically model undervalued the price by 300% (market price was triple the model value) but never overestimated market price by 100% (market price was never below 50% of model value).

So, basically, model value is sort of, conservative estimate of market price.
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July 19, 2019, 09:29:22 AM

@LFC : I am feeling like smarty pants not cashing out my salary  Grin
LFC?
Attention my man attention! 🤪

You are looking at the avatar only 😜

Okay Bhai, don't want to question your judgement. so i take the blame politely.  Tongue

But I was referring to LFC. We were having small talk about this before.  Wink
Pamoldar
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July 19, 2019, 09:34:25 AM


Okay Bhai, don't want to question your judgement. so i take the blame politely.  Tongue

But I was referring to LFC. We were having small talk about this before.  Wink
Oh! apologies, apologies. 🙂
VB1001
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July 19, 2019, 09:38:11 AM



Quote
#bitcoin 2012 Stock-to-flow model still works!

From what I see this graph shows only 8000$ at the end of 2017 when there was already a 20000$ price. Today if I can see correctly this should be already around 25 - 30K USD for single BTC.

Still, it could be a good prediction in a very long term, which is a million $$$ for single BTC in the 2025 year and if one doesn't look too much into details.

This is a model based on the SF/price BEFORE the first halving.
It's a loose indication, with market price being driven by more "short term" forces.
Nice thing is that historically model undervalued the price by 300% (market price was triple the model value) but never overestimated market price by 100% (market price was never below 50% of model value).

So, basically, model value is sort of, conservative estimate of market price.


Exact.
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July 19, 2019, 09:40:44 AM

Odds that we have left 4 figures behind forever:

Today:  10%
1 October: 30%
1 November: 50%
1 April 2020: 60%
1 November 2020: 70%
1 April 2021: 80%
1 November 2021: 90%

So this is what I see:

Today:  $10,610
1 October: $13,793
1 November: $20,689.5
1 April 2020: $33,103.2
1 November 2020: $56,275.4
1 April 2021: $101,295.7
1 November 2021: $192,462

Weeeeeeeeeeeeee

Most of us will probably be dead from too many hookers, too much cocaine or a Lambo crash before November 2021 Cheesy

Seriously though, I didn’t ever imagine in my wildest dreams those prices would be possible when I started buying in 2015.
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July 19, 2019, 09:43:40 AM

Ouch:
*U.S. REGULATOR PROBING CRYPTO EXCHANGE BITMEX ON CLIENT TRADES

Just rewind a few days ago:
 WAS BITMEX ‘AGAIN’ BEHIND THE LATEST BITCOIN FLASH CRASH?

And yesterday opposite move, a huge jump in minutes.

 Exchanges under fire after suspicious ETH crash and today’s BTC spike

Apparently nobody cares about market manipulation, as Bitcoin isn't even a financial instrument. The point is KYC/AML.
https://twitter.com/HASHCIB/status/1152137255936503808?s=20
Quote
2/“The months-long #CFTC probe is focused on whether BitMEX broke rules by allowing Americans to trade on the platform, which isn’t registered with the agency, said one of the people who asked not to be named discussing the investigation, which hasn’t been made public.”
There is also a small article on cointelegraph about this "breaking" news  
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bloomberg-us-regulator-investigating-bitmex-for-allowing-americans-to-trade
Quote
CFTC wants to know if Americans using BitMEX
According to sources citing people familiar with the matter speaking to Bloomberg, the CFTC suspects that BitMEX, which is registered in the Seychelles, allowed U.S. residents to use its platform to trade.

Under current law, the U.S. is one of the countries excluded from using BitMEX and similar crypto-based financial services, but users may have sought to circumvent the geoblock using services such as VPNs.
fillippone
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July 19, 2019, 09:46:33 AM

Ouch:
*U.S. REGULATOR PROBING CRYPTO EXCHANGE BITMEX ON CLIENT TRADES

Just rewind a few days ago:
 WAS BITMEX ‘AGAIN’ BEHIND THE LATEST BITCOIN FLASH CRASH?

And yesterday opposite move, a huge jump in minutes.

 Exchanges under fire after suspicious ETH crash and today’s BTC spike

Apparently nobody cares about market manipulation, as Bitcoin isn't even a financial instrument. The point is KYC/AML.
https://twitter.com/HASHCIB/status/1152137255936503808?s=20
Quote
2/“The months-long #CFTC probe is focused on whether BitMEX broke rules by allowing Americans to trade on the platform, which isn’t registered with the agency, said one of the people who asked not to be named discussing the investigation, which hasn’t been made public.”
There is also a small article on cointelegraph about this "breaking" news 
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bloomberg-us-regulator-investigating-bitmex-for-allowing-americans-to-trade

They pulled an article from my post! Wink
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