Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Tbh I don't really know what I am doing.

I bet that I have about 20 years on you, especially when it comes to investing.   I certainly am no expert, and bitcoin brought a lot of new experiences to me; however, I started investing more than 30 years ago, and fuck all for the first 10-15 years, I felt as if I was just spinning my wheels in attempting to accumulate in such a slow damned way.  But nothing like bitcoin was available (maybe that is a good thing?  I don't know), but I certainly felt that it was taking for fucking ever for the quantity of my portfolio to grow to such a degree that I was starting to feel a bit comfortable with it and as if I had a kind of decent equity cushion.

So, I was already feeling kind of rich, or as if I had done well for myself about 4-5 years before I got into bitcoin, so bitcoin brought another level of empowerment, but also I was able to take from some of the wealth that I had already built and put it into bitcoin. 

Surely, for a lot of the time that I was investing I was not exactly confident in what I was doing except to understand that dollar cost averaging and continuing to stock away value was going to pay off for me in the long run. 

I think with bitcoin, you and a lot of other folks, are going to achieve a wealthy status a lot more quickly than I was able to, and part of the matter is having access to such a likely to be asymmetric asset... yeah, it might not pay off, but still, it seems to be something that is quite amazing as an opportunity to tailor a reasonable plan around and to have decent chances of profiting immensely.

I just canalize around %20 to %40 of my monthly income to btc.   It just feels right to me that way. %20-%40 monthly is probably what JJG calls "overinvesting" and to mic, I am probably underinvesting.   Last year in Feb I was about to go not all in but I was going to invest %100 of my monthly income and for a few months I actually did it. (now that was overinvesting)

hahahaha

thanks for sharing and for being so frank regarding the situation.  There are probably a lot of guys (and even a gal or two) in similar shoes to you.

You are  correct that I characterize your strategy as overinvesting both in terms of the 20% to 40%, and certainly the 100%, and I am thinking that Mic might be a bit confused, too, about what you are doing exactly.  Of course, he understands that you have an ongoing pool of money that you dedicate to bitcoin, and he seems to be suggesting that you just invest that cashflow that you have already dedicated to bitcoin straight into bitcoin, and that way you are not either second guessing yourself and you are already "in" without having to think about it. 

As soon as the money comes in, invest it into bitcoin right away, according to what seems to be what Mic is saying.  Surely I do not agree with that, and the reality of the matter is that you should be keeping some fiat available, just in case, even if you have already allocated such money to BTC.

I recall that when I was in my BTC accumulation phase in 2014 and even kind of drug out into my maintenance stages in 2015 and 2016, if I ever came across some new cashflow that I had not expected, let's say I came across a $1,500 income that I was not anticipating.  What I would do with that money is that I would divide it into three parts.  $500 I would invest immediately into BTC, no matter what the price.  $500 I would schedule for dollar cost averaging over a period of time, maybe 10 weeks or something like that (which would be $50 per week for 10 weeks), and the third part, I would dedicate to price dips.  So if the price is currently $9,800, I would add that money to my buy orders in some kind of way.  If I did not have any buy orders outstanding then maybe I would figure out what is the lowest reasonable place that the BTC price might go that would cause me to potentially use up the $500.  If my answer was $8k then I might put several buy orders between here and $8k (that could be 5 buy orders of $100 each $350 or maybe I would put 10 orders of $50 each every $150 or some other variation that might depend on my feelings about how far the price might go down and if I felt adequately prepared for such a possible drop, psychologically and financially).  If I already had buy orders outstanding (which was usually the case for me starting in late 2015), I would just weave the $500 into those already existing orders in a way that I considered to be comfortable.

The truth is I don't have many choices.

I don't like to buy stocks and I still wouldn't buy too many of them if they were cheap and luckily for me they are not, which makes my decision a lot easier. Especially in where I live, stocks are a big "NO NO" It is a much bigger casino than Primedice.

Gold? Own a few coins. Which is enough.

What's left? Real Estate? I am not big enough for that stuff and even If I were, I still wouldn't do it. Too much paperwork, to many shit to deal with. Being a landlord of somebody is not something I'd really want but I'll be one eventually if get to my target probably.

Crypto is just so easy. You buy, it goes up, you cash out, pay your taxes and you are free to go. Almost no paperwork, no rules when you trade. Markets are up 24/7 you can cash out any time. It is just great.

Certainly, I agree with you here.  Bitcoin is way more liquid, and surely I would reconsider my thoughts on diversification if I had had access to such a flexible asset when I started investing. 

For me, there was a period of time that I was able to funnel a decent portion of my income into a 401k that had matching employer funds, so that became a decently easy option for me for a period of time, but these days there are a whole hell of a lot of peeps who do not even have access to that kind of an investment option, and even  so, bitcoin might still be more personally empowering than even that 401k investment vehicle, perhaps?

If you have a decent investment idea, you are free to tell me about it. I'll look into it.

My own initial investments on crypto more than doubled itself now. I am quite happy with the results but ofc it is not enough for my targeted "fuck you" status.

I am just trying to get to the double digits with btc. If I get to the "fuck you" price before that happens that's fine. If not I'll just be DCA'ing. DCA'ing feels so good. I became an addict. It is like you are doing some groceries for home every month (or week) but you get bitcoins instead. I feel comfortable that way.

Just be careful when you are stacking so many sats that you are able to feel that you have them sufficiently safeguarded.. at least a portion of them should be in a kind of cold storage.. maybe 80% or more, especially since you don't seem too inclined to trade any of them.

Oh look, I became a wordy man too.

You fuck.... Trying to steal my role in the WO thread scheme?  Did it on purpose, didn't you?

[rebal15]

My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.

The latter.

We've seen this time and time again. The world at large has not yet awakened to the fact that they need a form of money that is not inflationary, and is free from intervening middlemen who can conspire to thwart or devalue their transactions.

You are so funny.
The world is going on the other direction. Boris, trump, marie le pen and all the others.

It could be helpful if even a troll/shill like you were sufficiently competent to at least attempt to follow the topic.. Instead, it is very difficult to understand whether you are making any meaningful point at all, whether connected to the topic of the posts or otherwise.

JJG*, Your answers are always the same,they are "you are trolling+noob+***".  no explication, no reason.

The world would have a form of money if it was united as a country. With all these conflicts; either economic, monetary, technological, religious or others, due to the desire of domination, I do not think the world will have a single currency.
Even if it will happen in the future, I don't think that a software can be a source of international monetary system.

[JayJuanGee]

... what do I know when it comes to gambling based on "solid" market predictions?

I know that you need to shut the fuck up.

I am glad that, currently, you are fewing better about the knowing status of ur lil selfie, so even though you are not able to kick ur lil doggie.. because your poor widdle footie hurties, but you can kick some imaginary figure on the interwebs (aka me).   

Get a grip bawb!!!!!!

At this moment, I really feel like batman slapping you, but since you have a tendency to act out so sensitively, I don't wanna hurt ur widdle feewings.


 

[jbreher]

Events to celebrate:

1. WO page parity
2. 100K BTCUSD
3. WO Post parity
4. Gold Parity (BTC capitalisation equals Gold Capitalisation).

If we are to assume that appreciation in Bitcoin price comes in large part from cannibalization of gold market, you have 3. & 4. reversed.

Early musings:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=152944.0

$800K assumes static gold valuation. If bitcoin purchases are funded by gold sales, the napkinback figures say $400K crossover.

Funny thing, i did the exact same "back of the envelope" calculations years ago, even before joining the forum, but i got quite differnet numbers.
Copying and pasting from vbery old spreasheet:

Circulating Bitcoin   21,000,000
GOLD CAPTIALISATION   7,311,002,497,490.22
http://onlygold.com/Info/All-The-Gold-In-The-World.asp   
   
      
Bitcoin share   50.00%
Equal Share   174,071

So, if Bitcoin Equals Gold to 50% of current Gold Capitalisation, I get the value of a single bitcoin at 175,000 USD.
For Bitcoin to match gold capitalisation it need to get to 350K USD.

All computation made with 21 mios BTC supply (resulting in conservative estimates)

So basically I get half your valuation, with the same method!

Easy to see. The figure I found for above-ground gold was approx 10 Billion oz. I just 'rounded' it to 10.5B in order to divide neater into Bitcoin's 21M eventual count. So there's item 1. I don't know whether your 7.3B is any closer to the truth than is my 10.5B. And for the purposes of this sort of blue-sky figuring, I posit that it really doesn't matter.

I assume the rest of the discrepancy is in the $/oz for gold. When I ran the figures, gold was enjoying a local peak of $1600. I don't see the value you used.

[jbreher]

.... zooming the pic 400%

I don't know why I always seem to see an ironic pun regarding your username in your posts.

I don't know either. But really, always?

Nope, not really always. But twice in a week or two just kinda stuck out.

XD

[JayJuanGee]

This is my 10,000th post, I have had a blast spending so much time with all of you fuckers. This one is for all of you guys and to 10,000 more post to come and hopefully a majority in this thread! The price right now is back and forth around $10k and hopefully by the time it is 20,000 post the price jumps to more than $20,000. (It was $50 when the first post started)

Something seems weird about your profile.  Of course, your registration date goes back to September 2012, but your post history only goes back to early 2014. 

I did a quickie glance at mine too, because I was thinking that maybe all of my posts were not there, but they seem to be there.  My post history seems to go back to my registration date which was February 2014. 

I recall that in my first few months of forum membership, I posted way less frequently than I have been posting in recent times.  In my early days I was posting about 3 posts per day or something like.. maybe even less than that, and those early posts were exclusively in this WO thread. 

Currently, I am probably posting more than 8 posts per day on average, but still most of my posts (more than  80%) are in this thread, even though in the past couple of years, I have been venturing out of this thread into other parts of the forum a whole hell of a lot more.

[jbreher]

My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.

The latter.

We've seen this time and time again. The world at large has not yet awakened to the fact that they need a form of money that is not inflationary, and is free from intervening middlemen who can conspire to thwart or devalue their transactions.

You are so funny.
The world is going on the other direction. Boris, trump, marie le pen and all the others.

it is very difficult to understand whether you are making any meaningful point at all

The world would have a form of money if it was united as a country. With all these conflicts; either economic, monetary, technological, religious or others, due to the desire of domination, I do not think the world will have a single currency.

Bitcoin does not need to be a 'single currency for the entire world' for increasingly large fractions of people in each corner of the world to awaken to the fact that a weightless, invisible, uncensorable, uninflatable, unconfiscatable form of money is A Good Thing.

Even if it will happen in the future, I don't think that a software can be a source of international monetary system.

Hmmm. Good thing Bitcoin is ever so much more than merely 'a software'.

[makrospex]

.... zooming the pic 400%

I don't know why I always seem to see an ironic pun regarding your username in your posts.

I don't know either. But really, always?

Nope, not really always. But twice in a week or two just kinda stuck out.

XD

While ageing, my iSight (pun intended this time) is suffering more and more from astigmatism, so zooming in on pictures with many details got quite a habit. 

[JayJuanGee]

My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.

The latter.

We've seen this time and time again. The world at large has not yet awakened to the fact that they need a form of money that is not inflationary, and is free from intervening middlemen who can conspire to thwart or devalue their transactions.

You are so funny.
The world is going on the other direction. Boris, trump, marie le pen and all the others.

It could be helpful if even a troll/shill like you were sufficiently competent to at least attempt to follow the topic.. Instead, it is very difficult to understand whether you are making any meaningful point at all, whether connected to the topic of the posts or otherwise.

JJG*, Your answers are always the same,they are "you are trolling+noob+***".  no explication, no reason.

Perhaps my posts that are directed towards you have a common theme, and I am not sure whether that is intentional or not.  I have not performed any kind of deeper analysis attempt of myself to see whether my algorithm (whoops, maybe I should not have said that?) is broken.

Your posts tend to be a kind of gobble-dee-gook-gibberish... but every once in a while, you might happen to make some sense.  Go figure?

The world would have a form of money if it was united as a country. With all these conflicts; either economic, monetary, technological, religious or others, due to the desire of domination, I do not think the world will have a single currency.
Even if it will happen in the future, I don't think that a software can be a source of international monetary system.

Case in point.  Abstract gobble-dee-gook that does not really say much if anything beyond that you assertively don't believe in bitcoin - either its present value or its future value.  O.k.  Fair enough.  Good for you.

By the way, who cares in your sharing of abstract principles that you do not believe in bitcoin?  So what?   You believe that your posts are contributing any value to this thread?  I have my doubts, but whatever.   I see that you have earned 4 merits in the past year and a half, so there are likely some like-minded dipwits members**  who appreciate your "contributions."

**before I submitted post, I had to look up who had sent you smerits, hahahahaha, and I see that one of the two is not a dipwit... but I otherwise stand by my assertions...    

[fillippone]

Events to celebrate:

1. WO page parity
2. 100K BTCUSD
3. WO Post parity
4. Gold Parity (BTC capitalisation equals Gold Capitalisation).

If we are to assume that appreciation in Bitcoin price comes in large part from cannibalization of gold market, you have 3. & 4. reversed.

Early musings:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=152944.0

$800K assumes static gold valuation. If bitcoin purchases are funded by gold sales, the napkinback figures say $400K crossover.

Funny thing, i did the exact same "back of the envelope" calculations years ago, even before joining the forum, but i got quite differnet numbers.
Copying and pasting from vbery old spreasheet:

Circulating Bitcoin   21,000,000
GOLD CAPTIALISATION   7,311,002,497,490.22
http://onlygold.com/Info/All-The-Gold-In-The-World.asp   
   
      
Bitcoin share   50.00%
Equal Share   174,071

So, if Bitcoin Equals Gold to 50% of current Gold Capitalisation, I get the value of a single bitcoin at 175,000 USD.
For Bitcoin to match gold capitalisation it need to get to 350K USD.

All computation made with 21 mios BTC supply (resulting in conservative estimates)

So basically I get half your valuation, with the same method!

Easy to see. The figure I found for above-ground gold was approx 10 Billion oz. I just 'rounded' it to 10.5B in order to divide neater into Bitcoin's 21M eventual count. So there's item 1. I don't know whether your 7.3B is any closer to the truth than is my 10.5B. And for the purposes of this sort of blue-sky figuring, I posit that it really doesn't matter.

I assume the rest of the discrepancy is in the $/oz for gold. When I ran the figures, gold was enjoying a local peak of $1600. I don't see the value you used.

The website I used is quite old and don't contains the info anymore, but this more recent article seems to support my evidences:
https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/03/25/bitcoin-price-gold-market-cap/

[rebal15]

My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.

The latter.

We've seen this time and time again. The world at large has not yet awakened to the fact that they need a form of money that is not inflationary, and is free from intervening middlemen who can conspire to thwart or devalue their transactions.

You are so funny.
The world is going on the other direction. Boris, trump, marie le pen and all the others.

It could be helpful if even a troll/shill like you were sufficiently competent to at least attempt to follow the topic.. Instead, it is very difficult to understand whether you are making any meaningful point at all, whether connected to the topic of the posts or otherwise.

JJG*, Your answers are always the same,they are "you are trolling+noob+***".  no explication, no reason.

Perhaps my posts that are directed towards you have a common theme, and I am not sure whether that is intentional or not.  I have not performed any kind of deeper analysis attempt of myself to see whether my algorithm (whoops, maybe I should not have said that?) is broken.

Your posts tend to be a kind of gobble-dee-gook-gibberish... but every once in a while, you might happen to make some sense.  Go figure?

The world would have a form of money if it was united as a country. With all these conflicts; either economic, monetary, technological, religious or others, due to the desire of domination, I do not think the world will have a single currency.
Even if it will happen in the future, I don't think that a software can be a source of international monetary system.

Case in point.  Abstract gobble-dee-gook that does not really say much if anything beyond that you assertively don't believe in bitcoin - either its present value or its future value.  O.k.  Fair enough.  Good for you.

By the way, who cares in your sharing of abstract principles that you do not believe in bitcoin?  So what?   You believe that your posts are contributing any value to this thread?  I have my doubts, but whatever.   I see that you have earned 4 merits in the past year and a half, so there are likely some like-minded dipwits members**  who appreciate your "contributions."

**before I submitted post, I had to look up who had sent you smerits, hahahahaha, and I see that one of the two is not a dipwit... but I otherwise stand by my assertions...    

JJG, you are always out of subject. bots can't understand the meaning.

[rebal15]

My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.

The latter.

We've seen this time and time again. The world at large has not yet awakened to the fact that they need a form of money that is not inflationary, and is free from intervening middlemen who can conspire to thwart or devalue their transactions.

You are so funny.
The world is going on the other direction. Boris, trump, marie le pen and all the others.

it is very difficult to understand whether you are making any meaningful point at all

The world would have a form of money if it was united as a country. With all these conflicts; either economic, monetary, technological, religious or others, due to the desire of domination, I do not think the world will have a single currency.

Bitcoin does not need to be a 'single currency for the entire world' for increasingly large fractions of people in each corner of the world to awaken to the fact that a weightless, invisible, uncensorable, uninflatable, unconfiscatable form of money is A Good Thing.

Even if it will happen in the future, I don't think that a software can be a source of international monetary system.

Hmmm. Good thing Bitcoin is ever so much more than merely 'a software'.

single currency : I mean fiats. Bitcoin and altcoins are sure will never be.
a software: what ever you call it.

[makrospex]

a software: what ever you call it.

software is only one type of handling the (mathematical) algorithm in a convenient, automated way. So in fact "software" is only your name for it.
What it is, i bet you know: a blockchain with a simple, specific usecase. The chain (bitcoin) itself is just "output", coming from the algorithm (used by software).
"Software" is clearly incorrect. Looking at complex things the simple way doesn't make them simple at all.

[rebal15]

a software: what ever you call it.

software is only one type of handling the (mathematical) algorithm in a convenient, automated way. So in fact "software" is only your name for it.
What it is, i bet you know: a blockchain with a simple, specific usecase. The chain (bitcoin) itself is just "output", coming from the algorithm (used by software).
"Software" is clearly incorrect. Looking at complex things the simple way doesn't make them simple at all.

Ok, thank you.
Can Bitcoin be considered as an input to an algorithm (used by software).

[rattle_rattle]

This page on the thread must be one of the longest ever. It took me ages to scroll trough it.

[jbreher]

This page on the thread must be one of the longest ever.

You must be new here.

[jbreher]

a software: what ever you call it.

software is only one type of handling the (mathematical) algorithm in a convenient, automated way. So in fact "software" is only your name for it.
What it is, i bet you know: a blockchain with a simple, specific usecase. The chain (bitcoin) itself is just "output", coming from the algorithm (used by software).
"Software" is clearly incorrect. Looking at complex things the simple way doesn't make them simple at all.

Ok, thank you.
Can Bitcoin be considered as an input to an algorithm (used by software).

Only in the same sense as you yourself can be considered as a specific sequence of cytoseine, guanine, adenine, and thymine, as an input to ribosomes.

[makrospex]

a software: what ever you call it.

software is only one type of handling the (mathematical) algorithm in a convenient, automated way. So in fact "software" is only your name for it.
What it is, i bet you know: a blockchain with a simple, specific usecase. The chain (bitcoin) itself is just "output", coming from the algorithm (used by software).
"Software" is clearly incorrect. Looking at complex things the simple way doesn't make them simple at all.

Ok, thank you.
Can Bitcoin be considered as an input to an algorithm (used by software).

Once you get the grip on computing, that it's just a representation, or "realisation" of mathematical/logical processes, you will see things more clear.
These end users nowadays... The industry needed them to grow, but i remember better times, when computing was a thing you really needed to wrap your head around. No mouse, no touchscreens, -pads, whatever and 56k modem speed, at best  

EDIT: Wallobservers, i recognise ongoing reduction of bitcoin spam in my mailboxes. Not a good sign for 2019, i guess.

[rebal15]

a software: what ever you call it.

software is only one type of handling the (mathematical) algorithm in a convenient, automated way. So in fact "software" is only your name for it.
What it is, i bet you know: a blockchain with a simple, specific usecase. The chain (bitcoin) itself is just "output", coming from the algorithm (used by software).
"Software" is clearly incorrect. Looking at complex things the simple way doesn't make them simple at all.

Ok, thank you.
Can Bitcoin be considered as an input to an algorithm (used by software).

Once you get the grip on computing, that it's just a representation, or "realisation" of mathematical/logical processes, you will see things more clear.
These end users nowadays... The industry needed them to grow, but i remember better times, when computing was a thing you really needed to wrap your head around. No mouse, no touchscreens, -pads, whatever and 56k modem speed, at best  

EDIT: Wallobservers, i recognise ongoing reduction of bitcoin spam in my mailboxes. Not a good sign for 2019, i guess.

what do you mean with "bitcoin spam".
Not good if Bitcoin can be used for spams.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

JJG, you are always out of subject. bots can't understand the meaning.

As if I anyone here is going to give much if any credence to your categorization of which posts are "in subject"....  

Get a grip, rebal15

a software: what ever you call it.

software is only one type of handling the (mathematical) algorithm in a convenient, automated way. So in fact "software" is only your name for it.
What it is, i bet you know: a blockchain with a simple, specific usecase. The chain (bitcoin) itself is just "output", coming from the algorithm (used by software).
"Software" is clearly incorrect. Looking at complex things the simple way doesn't make them simple at all.

Ok, thank you.
Can Bitcoin be considered as an input to an algorithm (used by software).

Only in the same sense as you yourself can be considered as a specific sequence of cytoseine, guanine, adenine, and thymine, as an input to ribosomes.

jbreher is making some decent senses.     

Thanks for that insight, picnic bear.