Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[STT]

I dunno, despite my observation upthread. A standard $1000 face value bag of junk silver is like 54 pounds. So while I wouldn't want that much in a BOB, it might be handy to have at minor-to-mid crunch.

Barring apocalyptic conditions, we wont be walking with silver coins to use in shops.   I agree it is useful if ever totally isolated and 1000 is nothing in the big scheme, no harm to save a bag buried in the garden perhaps.    I just dont think it happens that usefully that likely.
    The sensible route would be for a major government to reissue silver coins in its currency, hard money.   Silver coins can be used to extend the life of a bottle of milk, it was always useful peoples money even just sitting there.  We dont, wont and cant have hard money, we have debts which would collapse upon fiscal budgets if we ever tried that route.   No bravery like this exists which leaves only the collapse scenario resulting from the extreme of no normal trade at all.

No good for gold

its good for gold to be used.   The price might fall in a year which is just a moment for gold but its closer to being used for settlement between nations which is its correct use.   If we fear change and upset prices even then I feel Bitcoin is the wrong choice because it needs change to really be used.  The status quo is more of the same which is debt, printing to serve the debt and new currency given to the most central debt handlers not anyone productive in the economy.   I hope not but we could do this for 40 years, just stupid debt to replace the last debt with more on top and since Japan has done it since the early 90's and we didnt start till 08 on the QE I guess we can do at least another 20 repeating the treadmill.

UK sold their gold at $250  

They bought euros prior to the ECB falling off the rails .   There are worse currencies then Euro but theres better like gold probably is going to be.    That is interesting news on gold holdings, its another step down the road towards instability I think as the gold all central banks hold is a common point of reference that enables trade.   Removing the gold will make Euro less synchronised I think likely.


The BTC price has two trends apparent since mid July with both lower highs and higher lows, we havent yet found which is stronger of the two.   I dont know if price is moving so slowly now because the two sides met and now counteract.

[realr0ach]

We dont, wont and cant have hard money, we have debts which would collapse upon fiscal budgets if we ever tried that route.

Debt monetization is the same thing as reinstating "hard money" - silver and gold.  You can't defeat the invisible hand of the market in the end.  As for platinum which OROBTC mentioned above, platinum is cheap too, but it's never really been a monetary metal and probably doesn't have a lot of hope being recognized as one by most countries when the supply is concentrated in Russia + South Africa.  That and the collapse of new car purchases will really hurt it.  There's a huge glut of new cars sitting around and won't be much industrial or monetary demand for platinum, while silver has high demand in both economic implosions and expansions.

[STT]

Debt monetization is the same thing as reinstating "hard money" - silver and gold.  You can't defeat the invisible hand of the market in the end.

It will likely lead to that conclusion because tides surpass waves but if the population supports the use of debt and the situation is still unclear so they might then we could see it continue many years it seems.    The IMF is very likely to back up the current FIAT situation, even with a big failure we see another revolution of very similar.     I do hope Bitcoin or anything without biased issuance gives the world access back to capitalism where value is traded on efficiency and genuine demand but I doubt it turns out how any of us think it might.

We dont, wont and cant have hard money, we have debts which would collapse upon fiscal budgets if we ever tried that route.

 As for platinum which OROBTC mentioned above, platinum is cheap too, but it's never really been a monetary metal and probably doesn't have a lot of hope being recognized as one by most countries when the supply is concentrated in Russia + South Africa.  That and the collapse of new car purchases will really hurt it.  There's a huge glut of new cars sitting around and won't be much industrial or monetary demand for platinum, while silver has high demand in both economic implosions and expansions.

Platnium is too industrial and centralised in a country like Russia so I've read.    Apparently this is a big point against its use internationally, it favours some over the many and somehow gold does not do this in the same way.
  Anyhow the bigger drawback would be the strong link to certain industry which could make it unreliable for supply and demand.   Ironically gold has no great industry and somehow its a positive not to be used.   I always liked silver ( I also prefer platinum to gold personally) but it has this problem of supply orbiting industry, when they mine many different common metals it can also return silver as well.   I'm not saying it as flawed as debt for currency but it has its drawbacks in its natural economy, the silver coin economy I dont see happening which then has us wanting a greater growing demand for silver to be ever present.   All the metals can all be used at least some and be superior to our current national debt issued for global use.  
   Hard money comes after a collapse or great instability in debt standards, I just dont think we are clever enough to switch in a controlled way.   Greece for example should have defaulted and moved on with a better standard after acknowledging bad debts.    Capitalism has to include the possibility for failure because humans fail so often as well as succeed, thats how we find a better direction ?   If they continually hide bad debts we lose our way.    Politics cannot hold a proper account when its in power over all traded wealth.




A return to the ceiling of the 8 day average, like a fly we are hanging upside down rubbing ours legs waiting for the next action     4hr bar close above this area is bullish for retest of highs I suppose

[lightfoot]

Cool, it's like little buying opportunities. How many "buy the fucking dip"?

[realr0ach]

I always liked silver ( I also prefer platinum to gold personally)

Platinum to me seems to be in the same boat as things like palladium and rhodium.  In a deflationary collapse or hyperinflation causing the banks to implode or a currency crisis to happen, virtually nobody will be doing ANYTHING with palladium.  All eyes will be focused on gold and silver.  Both the acceptability and price discovery of the outlier metals will be non-existent because there will just be nobody doing anything with them.  All the volume will be in gold and silver in the rush to the exits.

The second these problems start to manifest in a major way, the world will also become MUCH smaller and you'll need to have reliable local liquidity.  In order to do anything with things like palladium, platinum, and rhodium, you currently have to do business by mail with some large company many states away.  That's a huge problem.  Most towns and cities already have places you can buy and sell silver and gold before the system blows up, and that will just increase more afterwards, while there will be a big question mark for anything that's not gold and silver.

Gold and silver are the 'alternative' of the current monetary system, and when the main system goes bust, people generally go straight to the alternative instead of going to 'the alternative of the alternative'.  That's bad news for things like platinum, palladium, and bitcoin.  Bitcoin will probably mirror the chart of rhodium when the system blows up because it will have garbage acceptability compared to gold and silver (70% of Zerohege posters voting they have strong negative feelings towards digital shitcoins in the poll) and will not be valid as collateral for anything since it's imaginary to begin with:

[jojo69]

FTFY jojo.

good call

I get the crooks mixed up

[realr0ach]

Trumps new nuclear war idea...

https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/world-news/obliteration-trump-threatens-iran-with-nuclear-strike/

Why it's a dumb idea:

Not really a fan or enemy of Iran personally, but since Iran is part of the Russia/China alliance, randomly nuking someone on their team is going to make them question whether they should first strike before they're next.  

It makes zero sense from any game theory perspective.  If you were to first strike anyone, it would need to be the strongest members of that team, which is also not an option due to the Russia dead hand switches and such.  So, overall it's a very stupid (((neocon))) idea.

[Wilhelm]

Nice green dildo there !

 

[Paashaas]

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1154712314995781634

[realr0ach]

WHAT miner capitulation???  There was no increase in mining when the price was pump and dumped to $20k (probably China mining cartel colluding with Giancarlo at Bitfinex to make it happen and knew it was unsustainable price rigging so why build more miners?).  The price then flopped back down and mining has been mostly the same during this entire series of events.  

There is no "miner capitulation".  If the Bitmain/Chinese mining cartel actually did "capitulate" and turned off their monopoly, the chain would freeze and require a hard fork and the price would be pennies.  What is it?  60% of mining is done at two dams in China?  I think we would have noticed if they "capitulated".

[HairyMaclairy]

The BTC price has two trends apparent since mid July with both lower highs and higher lows, we havent yet found which is stronger of the two.   I dont know if price is moving so slowly now because the two sides met and now counteract.

These are the dog days of summer.  The only trend is malaise.  It is written.  

Go outside, drink and be merry.  For in late autumn, we bull.

[realr0ach]

Go outside, drink and be merry.

Trollgoossens is already drunk and high, that's why he's buying imaginary, valueless, digital timestamps instead of physical silver:

https://usdebtclock.org/

[HairyMaclairy]

Roach - the biggest risk to the global economy is deflation. There is zero need for PMs in a deflationary environment.  PMs are for fighting inflation. But inflation is dead, cremated, buried, gone.  

Production is soaring, and production costs globally are failing through the floor due to technological and social innovation. A PS4 is more powerful than the world’s greatest supercomputer in 1999.  Writ large, Moore’s Law still rules, except it has migrated from the hardware level to the software level.  GitHub was only invented 10 years ago.  The iPhone is only 12 years old.

 No one can raise prices in this environment in the supply chain - they would be destroyed. Deflation is here to stay and PMs have no role in a deflationary environment.  

[criptix]

Hm europe preparing for another round of massive QE, banks preparing for negative interest nationwide in germany :S

[HairyMaclairy]

Australia is moving to zero interest rates for the first time in history (it kept them high post Global Financial Crisis).

[realr0ach]

Roach - the biggest risk to the global economy is deflation. There is zero need for PMs in a deflationary environment.  PMs are for fighting inflation. But inflation is dead, buried, gone.  

Production is soaring, and production costs globally are failing through the floor due to technological and social innovation. Moore’s Law still rules, except it has migrated from the hardware level to the software level.   No one can raise prices in the supply chain - they would be destroyed. Deflation is not going anywhere.  

Your post is completely nonsensical and is like a college freshman talking about theory without actually knowing how things work in practice.  If someone owes $300k for a mortgage and deflation occurs, that amount due may now be equivalent to $600k instead through deflation.  One way or another they're going to default even if you make it illegal to default.  Everyone and their mom is either going to walk away from those loans or be unable to pay and all banks collapse.

A college freshman (the brain of HairyMaclairy) would look at deflation and think it's good for banks because their relative profits from loans should increase.  In reality, they take a bath on every single loan and die.  When the banks implode, fiat then has a value of zero and Exter's Pyramid takes play where the value of all assets on earth is simply divided by the number of above ground ounces of physical gold and silver.  Metals win in either deflationary or inflationary collapse.  Bitcoin is useless in deflationary collapse and it's value would be nothingness.

[OROBTC]

Roach - the biggest risk to the global economy is deflation. There is zero need for PMs in a deflationary environment.  PMs are for fighting inflation. But inflation is dead, buried, gone.  

Production is soaring, and production costs globally are failing through the floor due to technological and social innovation. Moore’s Law still rules, except it has migrated from the hardware level to the software level.   No one can raise prices in the supply chain - they would be destroyed. Deflation is not going anywhere.  

Your post is completely nonsensical and is like a college freshman talking about theory without actually knowing how things work in practice.  If someone owes $300k for a mortgage and deflation occurs, that amount due may now be equivalent to $600k instead through deflation.  One way or another they're going to default even if you make it illegal to default.  Everyone and their mom is either going to walk away from those loans or be unable to pay and all banks collapse.

A college freshman (the brain of HairyMaclairy) would look at deflation and think it's good for banks because their relative profits from loans should increase.  In reality, they take a bath on every single loan and die.  When the banks implode, fiat then has a value of zero and Exter's Pyramid takes play where the value of all assets on earth is simply divided by the number of above ground ounces of physical gold and silver.  Metals win in either deflationary or inflationary collapse.  Bitcoin is useless in deflationary collapse and it's value would be nothingness.

Gold did very well in the deflation of the 1930s.

While gold would certainly be hit in a stock market crash (as everyone would need $ liquidity), it is likely that gold would drop in price less than most other investment assets.

realr0ach is correct that the banks would be in grave danger in a deflationary environment.  Debts are extremely toxic in deflation.  Not to mention derivatives...  We have not had a real deflation in the USA since the 1930s.  Many of the economic rules we (mostly) believe in get turned around 180 degrees in a deflation (look at the perverse effects of NIRP, where you make money by borrowing it in Europe.)

*   *   *

It is, of course, possible that BTC would drop LESS than stocks (etc.) in a crash or extended bearish environment.  BTC has not been around long enough for us to know what would happen in a market event like 2008-2009.

[fabiorem]

All this talk about silver, palladium and platinum made me buy more litecoin today.

[Amateur_]

Australia is moving to zero interest rates for the first time in history (it kept them high post Global Financial Crisis).

Source? This looks to be BLATANT FUD.

All this talk about silver, palladium and platinum made me buy more litecoin today.

I personally find litecoin to be quite an interesting project; it appears to be almost identical to bitcoin, with the exception of developers pushing the envelope with regard to technological innovation and the implementation of new/experimental ideas.

Halving is only nine [9] days away too.

[realr0ach]

Roach - the biggest risk to the global economy is deflation. There is zero need for PMs in a deflationary environment.  PMs are for fighting inflation. But inflation is dead, buried, gone.  

Production is soaring, and production costs globally are failing through the floor due to technological and social innovation. Moore’s Law still rules, except it has migrated from the hardware level to the software level.   No one can raise prices in the supply chain - they would be destroyed. Deflation is not going anywhere.  

Your post is completely nonsensical and is like a college freshman talking about theory without actually knowing how things work in practice.  If someone owes $300k for a mortgage and deflation occurs, that amount due may now be equivalent to $600k instead through deflation.  One way or another they're going to default even if you make it illegal to default.  Everyone and their mom is either going to walk away from those loans or be unable to pay and all banks collapse.

A college freshman (the brain of HairyMaclairy) would look at deflation and think it's good for banks because their relative profits from loans should increase.  In reality, they take a bath on every single loan and die.  When the banks implode, fiat then has a value of zero and Exter's Pyramid takes play where the value of all assets on earth is simply divided by the number of above ground ounces of physical gold and silver.  Metals win in either deflationary or inflationary collapse.  Bitcoin is useless in deflationary collapse and it's value would be nothingness.

Gold did very well in the deflation of the 1930s.

While gold would certainly be hit in a stock market crash (as everyone would need $ liquidity), it is likely that gold would drop in price less than most other investment assets.

realr0ach is correct that the banks would be in grave danger in a deflationary environment.  Debts are extremely toxic in deflation.  Not to mention derivatives...  We have not had a real deflation in the USA since the 1930s.  

I'm not sure an actual deflationary crash will even be allowed to happen like 2008.  If a liquidity event occurs, they might just shut down markets, revalue metals by an obscene amount to re-capitalize the system, then re-open again the next day.  What other reason would Basil III ruling exist?  But they'll probably just keep trying to print more and more money and blow up the system through hyperinflation instead solely to avoid doing any metals revaluation even though debt monetization will automatically cause that to happen anyway.