Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

happy 11k (again)!!!!

Hello eleven.
Sun-temp rises, price follows...
New correlation?

[Findingnemo]

Godbye 4digits  
Frankly, I feel sorry to all this guys waiting for sub 9K. Last seconds to join the train.

Bullet train is waiting there,buy your tickets soon or you won't reach your destination in near future.

$50K is on the way. (seems too much)

[El duderino_]

[El duderino_]

"How do we stop humans from hurting each other?" is the naive question, plus the solution is simple - restrict everyone's freedom to the point it becomes physically impossible.
A more nuanced question would be "how do we prevent humans from wanting to hurt each other?"

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1158037245204619264?s=20

[Torque]

I'd like to see any of these shitcoin lovers that come and grace this thread, answer this one question:

If Bitcoin functions securely, has the most and widest user/broker/exchange/merchant/miner support, and does everything it needs to do for both e-commerce transactions and SoV, why look elsewhere for anything else?

If you can't answer honestly without throwing in " 'cause speculation reasons", then you are full of shit. Because outside of that, trying to get rich on a flyer or something, you'd have no valid reason.

[El duderino_]

Sunday sobered up.
Bitcoin looks good as always.
Fast food here I come....

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, I much prefer incremental steps. I’m not in the mood for unsustainable pumps because we all know what happens after them.

I love unsustainable pumps. Make $ on the way up, corn on the way down. Yummy.

nobody can do it on sustainable basis as it does not tell you where it will go.
sooner or later, you would lose.

For some value of 'lose' that has nothing to do with my personal situation.

Can you elaborate, jbreher? 

I personally believe that with laddering, there is hardly any ways to lose unless you are setting your amounts wrong or if the BTC price goes down.  How else can anyone lose?   Unless you are measuring on a shorter-timeline perhaps and you need the money right away... for example when BTC's price is going down...

I mean if you were to have a 5-year timeline, let's say, and you did not need your invested money for 5 years, then wouldn't it be much more difficult to conceive ways that you could lose with laddering, unless the price of the BTC were lower at the end of the 5 years. 

Of course, you could also conceive that any time that you are buying BTC, that if you give those BTC at least 5 years before you again sell them (even while exercising a laddering type approach), then it is difficult to conceive of ways that you would lose in that system either, unless at any point in time 5 years after any buy that you make, the BTC price is lower than it was 5 years earlier. 

[JayJuanGee]

Happy speculation, I will probably check in after another 3 years.

For you, 3 years might even be too frequently - even though it can be good to get an update from known personalities from time to time.

Someone asked me how come an OG like me is into altcoins.........

Self assigned status.... lovely.  One of your ongoing tone problems.

don't be stuck in that echo chamber of maximalism, be a minimalist on maximalism because it is becoming a cult.

Unsolicited advice is going to get you a long way.

Ask yourself what is the goal behind your involvement in this space, then be agnostic about it.

This, here, unsolicited advice might be a bit more pragmatic, which is to try NOT to get too emotional about your finances.  In other words, if you structure your finances in a certain kind of way that protects you from price movements in either direction, then it is less likely that you will get emotional when the price goes a bit beyond your expectations, because it is also good to protect yourself emotionally (and financially) for extremes, too.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

People tend to forget just how speculative bitcoin really is. Sure it has been around over ten years but it is still a grand experiment and experiments fail sometimes. I tend to think in 5 years bitcoin will be either be worth more than $50,000 or zero. If Wall Street can make money from it that is a powerful force to keep bitcoin alive. Sure it is decentralized but governments can shut down the on and off ramps like Coinbase if they decide bitcoin is a real threat to fiat. Or regulate them to the point price crashes.

[JayJuanGee]

Godbye 4digits  
Frankly, I feel sorry to all this guys waiting for sub 9K. Last seconds to join the train.

JSRAW?   Can you confirm this assertion?    If JSRAW does not confirm, I cannot put much higher odds than 50% that we will never see 4 digits again.

Of course, the lower you go, the less probable... So yeah there have been quite a few people looking for below $9k, and jesus, we were already at $9,049 which would have been about a 35% correction from our $13,880 local top.  Why the fuck expect more than that?  Yeah, sure a larger correction can happen and it still can happen, but it becomes a bit more difficult to happen when the gap is becoming BIGGER in the UP direction rather than approaching those various hopium buy points that are sub $9k and even going below $5k.. maybe, maybe, but I would not be putting too much expectations in the "necessity" of those kinds of down plays.

[Globb0]

How long do I need to watch it for?

you'll know

I do feel fitter.

I imagined all sorts of exercises.

[Lambie Slayer]

I suspect the domestic terror threats of the next decade will be incel shitcoiners (every coin but Bitcoin) killing innocent nocoiners for not adopting their shitcoin.

Bitcoiners wont be affected bc of the ability to afford the best security sound money can buy.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[romneymoney]

I'd like to see any of these shitcoin lovers that come and grace this thread, answer this one question:

If Bitcoin functions securely, has the most and widest user/broker/exchange/merchant/miner support, and does everything it needs to do for both e-commerce transactions and SoV, why look elsewhere for anything else?

If you can't answer honestly without throwing in " 'cause speculation reasons", then you are full of shit. Because outside of that, trying to get rich on a flyer or something, you'd have no valid reason.

BTC isn't ideal for small/fast transactions and has proven to be conservative as far as making changes to address such problems.  Waiting around a random amount of time from a few minutes to much longer for a single confirmation is awkward and confusing in a world where most things are nearly instantaneous.  I feel like that at least leaves the door open a bit.

[JayJuanGee]

People tend to forget just how speculative bitcoin really is. Sure it has been around over ten years but it is still a grand experiment and experiments fail sometimes. I tend to think in 5 years bitcoin will be either be worth more than $50,000 or zero. If Wall Street can make money from it that is a powerful force to keep bitcoin alive. Sure it is decentralized but governments can shut down the on and off ramps like Coinbase if they decide bitcoin is a real threat to fiat. Or regulate them to the point price crashes.

First you seem to be giving way too much probability to the possibility of zero in such a short period of time.  Of course, some governments could start shutting down on ramps, but how the fuck you going to get all governments to cooperate in that direction?  Governments do no necessarily agree with each other, and you think that they are going to agree with any figure head like The donald?  Furthermore, even if there were a more likeable and agreeable figure, there is still likely going to be localism battles that are not going to necessarily go along with the shutting down bitcoin theme that you imagine to be possible in the next 5 years.

Regarding your point about bitcoin being highly speculative, this has been my point all along about why it seems to be NOT necessary to diversify too much into other coins.  Bitcoin is already risky, and the other coins largely just follow bitcoin, and if bitcoin were either to go to zero or get pummelled down into a lot lower market cap (in other words more underground), then it would be difficult to imagine a world in which other coins would still be able to prosper in such a system in which bitcoin is not able to.. .because it seems that so far bitcoin is the only one that really has any kind of degree of decentralized secure mining that would be sufficiently resilient to really back up potential grandiose attacks, were they to occur in any kind of systematic way from BIG players such as governments.

[JayJuanGee]

I suspect the domestic terror threats of the next decade will be incel shitcoiners (every coin but Bitcoin) killing innocent nocoiners for not adopting their shitcoin.

Bitcoiners wont be affected bc of the ability to afford the best security sound money can buy.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

I hope that the world does not deteriorate further in that direction... though I do agree with you regarding the likely transfer or wealth from nocoiners to coiners, so in that regard, it is not too late to join the world of coiners if you happen to not be one, yet.  Surely there is some benefits to getting into BTC earlier.   Is there a saying about when is the best time to get into bitcoin?  yesterday.  When is the second best time to get into bitcoin?  today.  

I think that there are at least a few more 10x price runs (maybe even up to 5) before the wealth transfer from no coiners to coiners has largely and mostly taken place.

Many of us who are mostly not easily shaken from our coins will be decently rich, maybe even approaching "filthy" level with one or two more 10x price surges.  One 10x surge puts prices at $100k and 2 10x surges puts prices at $1million.  Most others participating in this thread with lower BTC holdings should be able to achieve such status by the time three 10x price surges occur.. that would be $10million a coin, so in those circumstances, even .5 BTC would be decent, but a whole coin would be even better... and you guys holding 5 or more coins will be sitting pretty... problem is that $10million per coin seems a bit of a stretch of the imagination, even if it is after 2028 or so?  there are quite a few participants in this thread that have at least until 2028 to stack their sats, no?

[mindrust]

I'd like to see any of these shitcoin lovers that come and grace this thread, answer this one question:

If Bitcoin functions securely, has the most and widest user/broker/exchange/merchant/miner support, and does everything it needs to do for both e-commerce transactions and SoV, why look elsewhere for anything else?

If you can't answer honestly without throwing in " 'cause speculation reasons", then you are full of shit. Because outside of that, trying to get rich on a flyer or something, you'd have no valid reason.

Horrible privacy, Horrible scaling at the first layer, unreliable for microtransactions...etc, and now toxic community that has cult-like features.

Beam is everything that Bitcoin is not that is why I say it is not a zero-sum game.

Also, ain't no one telling me about how is the code is great, I worked for a company that basically made shitcoins for other companies (private blockchains), it is so much insulting to hear about how much talent Bitcoin devs have, other industries have thousands of better-talented people that you can't even start comparing.. I cringe so hard every time I hear this especially because most of the time it comes from noobs who have no idea.

You found the next bitcoin killer fine.

We get it.

Now go away and watch how your shitcoin collapses like others but do it elsewhere.

Just when I thought Bcash morons were impulsing now we have to deal with Beam shills.

Centalized taxcoin scam, that's what beam is. It isn't like Bitcoin that's the only part you got right. It is complete shit.

[JayJuanGee]

I'd like to see any of these shitcoin lovers that come and grace this thread, answer this one question:

If Bitcoin functions securely, has the most and widest user/broker/exchange/merchant/miner support, and does everything it needs to do for both e-commerce transactions and SoV, why look elsewhere for anything else?

If you can't answer honestly without throwing in " 'cause speculation reasons", then you are full of shit. Because outside of that, trying to get rich on a flyer or something, you'd have no valid reason.

BTC isn't ideal for small/fast transactions and has proven to be conservative as far as making changes to address such problems.  Waiting around a random amount of time from a few minutes to much longer for a single confirmation is awkward and confusing in a world where most things are nearly instantaneous.  I feel like that at least leaves the door open a bit.

Fast transactions do not have to happen on 1st layer, and there seems to be a lot of building of second layer solutions in bitcoin, so if it is not broken, it is still in development.  Perhaps bitcoin could also absorb some other coin that might be better at transacting quickly as a second layer solution... although it does not really seem necessary to have any other second token for that... but whatever, who the fuck knows... things develop as they develop and there is a kind of snowballing effect anyhow that comes out a bit differently than expected and with variants of unexpectedness.

[mindrust]

I'd like to see any of these shitcoin lovers that come and grace this thread, answer this one question:

If Bitcoin functions securely, has the most and widest user/broker/exchange/merchant/miner support, and does everything it needs to do for both e-commerce transactions and SoV, why look elsewhere for anything else?

If you can't answer honestly without throwing in " 'cause speculation reasons", then you are full of shit. Because outside of that, trying to get rich on a flyer or something, you'd have no valid reason.

BTC isn't ideal for small/fast transactions and has proven to be conservative as far as making changes to address such problems.  Waiting around a random amount of time from a few minutes to much longer for a single confirmation is awkward and confusing in a world where most things are nearly instantaneous.  I feel like that at least leaves the door open a bit.

Fast transactions do not have to happen on 1st layer, and there seems to be a lot of building of second layer solutions in bitcoin, so if it is not broken, it is still in development.  Perhaps bitcoin could also absorb some other coin that might be better at transacting quickly as a second layer solution... although it does not really seem necessary to have any other second token for that... but whatever, who the fuck knows... things develop as they develop and there is a kind of snowballing effect anyhow that comes out a bit differently than expected and with variants of unexpectedness.

You should think bitcoin as a Swiss bank account in your pocket. Best security, best liquidity, most known, best store of value. But you can't buy that goddamn coffee with it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

LN is not perfect but at least somebody is working on it. Will it solve the problem completely? Who knows...

Till then use doge, ltc, xmr or whatever you like.

I believe for what it can do right now, Bitcoin is unrivaled: Security, Liquidity, SoV. If you just tune it to make it coffee-ready, the system collapses. I am fine with that. I can still use my CC or Doge for $1-10 purchases. Bitcoin is for > $100 payments and keeping your wealth secure away from banks.

If it was possible don't you think ETH, bitcoin's closest rival, would have solved it first? There isn't a magical solution to that problem.

ETH collapsed under heavy load too, no blockchain can carry the world demand. You can't expect the impossible from blockchains. If the blocks are full go use something else. I don't see anything wrong with that because there isn't a known safe solution, if there was one, BTC devs would have implemented it already.

[serveria.com]

I have called every bottom and top since 2012

I sold most around $9K bought back with some of my stash around $4500

Muahaha just for your info, $9k was not the top and $4.5k was not the bottom  

I will probably check in after another 3 years

Please check in... never

[Biodom]

I hope that the world does not deteriorate further in that direction... though I do agree with you regarding the likely transfer or wealth from nocoiners to coiners, so in that regard, it is not too late to join the world of coiners if you happen to not be one, yet.  Surely there is some benefits to getting into BTC earlier.   Is there a saying about when is the best time to get into bitcoin?  yesterday.  When is the second best time to get into bitcoin?  today.  

I think that there are at least a few more 10x price runs (maybe even up to 5) before the wealth transfer from no coiners to coiners has largely and mostly taken place.

Many of us who are mostly not easily shaken from our coins will be decently rich, maybe even approaching "filthy" level with one or two more 10x price surges.  One 10x surge puts prices at $100k and 2 10x surges puts prices at $1million.  Most others participating in this thread with lower BTC holdings should be able to achieve such status by the time three 10x price surges occur.. that would be $10million a coin, so in those circumstances, even .5 BTC would be decent, but a whole coin would be even better... and you guys holding 5 or more coins will be sitting pretty... problem is that $10million per coin seems a bit of a stretch of the imagination, even if it is after 2028 or so?  there are quite a few participants in this thread that have at least until 2028 to stack their sats, no?

To me current probabilities look like this:

Within 3 years (2022), I estimate the probability of $100K at 50%

If 100K is achieved on schedule, $1mil probability in 2026 might be 20-30%

It is also possible that $300-400K (roughly a marketcap of gold) would be a longer term maximum for a decade or a bit longer.

TL;DR 10X surges will not continue for multiple cycles, maybe only 1-2 such cycles left.