Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[makrospex]

Last time I started to be worried and depressed we rallied from the bottom. Not sure if I feel depressed enough already... but it's not that far.

On the other hand I still think we are somewhat ahead on price schedule and that's probably the reason I am not so much worried.

As soon as I feel like the sky is gonna fall onto my head I will let you guys know so you can act accordingly. DYOR though.

I am starting to think we need one final capitulation event (which doesn't mean a lower bottom) before the halving rally. We will see.

HODL.

Somebody just needs to give away 50 BTC for Kryptonianus, who speaks in plural of himself (like an emperor).
Everything will be fine after!

The poophole references in this post were not intended, btw.

Please don't invoke that clown. It was funny the first few times, but not anymore. And please no more escrow offers either

SCNR, you're right.
I even wanted to instantly ignore the posts from his new account, when i found out it was already deleted after refreshing the page...
Thanks to the mods for the good work!

[1714842408]

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[1714842408]

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[JayJuanGee]

Frankly it is not looking good at the moment, I would even say it's time to sell, and buy back below 8k. I am pretty sure we are heading towards 7k-ish but hopefully we never go back below 6.4k. If we go back below 6.4 there will be a lot of blood (not like the movie).
Then in the middle term there should be a bounce back above 10k (I hope) but breaking above 11k and most importantly above 12.4k will be very tough.
Just hoping the halving will make things move to our advantage, but the technical analysis is looking very ugly in the short term  

You make our current situation sound so dire, Bossian.

Do you remember that on October 25, we had 42% in 12 hours from $7,300 to $10,300, and if we get back to $7,300 over the following month or so (which would bring us to November 25), do you think that we are worse off merely because we went back to the starting point of what had happened in 12 hours?  

Well, we gotta get back to $7,300 first, I suppose, but I doubt that the situation is as dire as you are making it out to be, even if we were to get below $6,400.   What's so special about $6,400?  Remember from April 1, to June 27, we went from $4,200 to $13,880?  $6,400 does not even bring us back down to $4,200, but we would have to get down to $6,400 first, and we seem quite a ways off from $6,400, but hey, things happen fast in bitcoinlandia, so I would be prepared to buy, instead of thinking about selling and then end up being wrong in the even that BTC prices were to stop going down... .and surely we see those kinds of things happening in bitcoinlandia.  

We have jonoiv still waiting for sub $6k for more than a 6 months, and we have some others who are still hoping for sub $3k, which yeah, they might get lucky, but I would rather be buying on the way down rather than taking some actions (such as selling now) and then regret it later.

I was looking closely yesterday at the technical analysis and it's clear the major support is around 6.4k, that's why this price is scary (for me, I may be wrong), on the other hand the price of 12.4k is very exciting. Of course we can go back above 10k, I hope so.

Frankly, I bought at the worst moment (9.3k), if we go close to 10k I will sell. Because right now I am not confident. BUT after selling everything I got at 10k I will wait for 12.4k. If we pass that price then I buy again even more (won't care about the small lack or earning between 10k and 12.4k because it won't matter much. I will feel much better and safer in selling at 10k and then wait, because above 12.4k it's basically free money (strong resistance). If we pass 12.4k then the long term trend is looking crazy good. My personal opinion of course best of luck to us.

If that system works for you, then so be it.  I cannot be a hater, but seems like you are engaging in a lot of reliance on what is supposedly in the charts and your interpretation of that, and again, if you have gotten both good at it, and also able to employ systems in which you profit from either price direction, then you are likely in a good place, yet to me, it seems that you are kind of relying on price movements in one direction or another in the short term and historically, we have seen so many times that a variety of purported experts get the short term wrong - that's why I mentioned those two recent upwards explosive spurts.

Sure it is possible that anything can happen, but betting on down in what appears to be a bull market seems quite risky.

Yeah, I know there are several folks that are asserting that we are currently NOT in a bull market, but seems like wishful thinking to me.  Even bitcoin does not seem to change back and forth from bear to bull to bear to bull... so if you are engaged in defining bear and bull in terms of short swings, I have difficulties relating, especially when it seems that our that there are pretty decent odds that our early 2019 price move from $4,200 to $13,880 had demonstrated that we had gotten out of our 2018 bear market.

Of course, we do not know for sure until after the fact, but if you are trying to predict exactly the correction level in a bull market versus trying to assert that we are in a bear market, and either theory seems filled with lots of risk.

Also, I don't play around with BIG plays like you, but buying at $9,300 might not be so bad if you had sold somewhere in the supra $11k or even higher, but yeah I suppose that there are a lot of scenarios that buying at $9,300 might not seem to be too good, unless you are just getting into bitcoin. 

If you are just getting into bitcoin then buying at $9,300 might not be bad at all.  Just keep buying, and accumulating. Selling above $10k seems quite risky, but then you get into the same issues about trying to figure out what is happening, because there are scenarios in which BTC prices might shoot the fuck past $13,880 and go into the sub $19k arena before correcting all the way back down to $10k, but that does not seem to be a scenario that your system anticipates very well... but surely such a price performance or some other weird and unexpected price movement could happen... bitcoin is known for such weird price movements, and I doubt that it is going to stop with the weird price movements any time soon, at least maybe not until BTC prices are well in the area of gold market cap or even quite higher before the manipulation forces will become more debilitated in their abilities to fuck with bitcoin's volatility.

[Cryptotourist]

Good morning Merit Observers.

[Bossian]

Frankly it is not looking good at the moment, I would even say it's time to sell, and buy back below 8k. I am pretty sure we are heading towards 7k-ish but hopefully we never go back below 6.4k. If we go back below 6.4 there will be a lot of blood (not like the movie).
Then in the middle term there should be a bounce back above 10k (I hope) but breaking above 11k and most importantly above 12.4k will be very tough.
Just hoping the halving will make things move to our advantage, but the technical analysis is looking very ugly in the short term  

You make our current situation sound so dire, Bossian.

Do you remember that on October 25, we had 42% in 12 hours from $7,300 to $10,300, and if we get back to $7,300 over the following month or so (which would bring us to November 25), do you think that we are worse off merely because we went back to the starting point of what had happened in 12 hours?  

Well, we gotta get back to $7,300 first, I suppose, but I doubt that the situation is as dire as you are making it out to be, even if we were to get below $6,400.   What's so special about $6,400?  Remember from April 1, to June 27, we went from $4,200 to $13,880?  $6,400 does not even bring us back down to $4,200, but we would have to get down to $6,400 first, and we seem quite a ways off from $6,400, but hey, things happen fast in bitcoinlandia, so I would be prepared to buy, instead of thinking about selling and then end up being wrong in the even that BTC prices were to stop going down... .and surely we see those kinds of things happening in bitcoinlandia.  

We have jonoiv still waiting for sub $6k for more than a 6 months, and we have some others who are still hoping for sub $3k, which yeah, they might get lucky, but I would rather be buying on the way down rather than taking some actions (such as selling now) and then regret it later.

I was looking closely yesterday at the technical analysis and it's clear the major support is around 6.4k, that's why this price is scary (for me, I may be wrong), on the other hand the price of 12.4k is very exciting. Of course we can go back above 10k, I hope so.

Frankly, I bought at the worst moment (9.3k), if we go close to 10k I will sell. Because right now I am not confident. BUT after selling everything I got at 10k I will wait for 12.4k. If we pass that price then I buy again even more (won't care about the small lack or earning between 10k and 12.4k because it won't matter much. I will feel much better and safer in selling at 10k and then wait, because above 12.4k it's basically free money (strong resistance). If we pass 12.4k then the long term trend is looking crazy good. My personal opinion of course best of luck to us.

If that system works for you, then so be it.  I cannot be a hater, but seems like you are engaging in a lot of reliance on what is supposedly in the charts and your interpretation of that, and again, if you have gotten both good at it, and also able to employ systems in which you profit from either price direction, then you are likely in a good place, yet to me, it seems that you are kind of relying on price movements in one direction or another in the short term and historically, we have seen so many times that a variety of purported experts get the short term wrong - that's why I mentioned those two recent upwards explosive spurts.

Sure it is possible that anything can happen, but betting on down in what appears to be a bull market seems quite risky.

Yeah, I know there are several folks that are asserting that we are currently NOT in a bull market, but seems like wishful thinking to me.  Even bitcoin does not seem to change back and forth from bear to bull to bear to bull... so if you are engaged in defining bear and bull in terms of short swings, I have difficulties relating, especially when it seems that our that there are pretty decent odds that our early 2019 price move from $4,200 to $13,880 had demonstrated that we had gotten out of our 2018 bear market.

Of course, we do not know for sure until after the fact, but if you are trying to predict exactly the correction level in a bull market versus trying to assert that we are in a bear market, and either theory seems filled with lots of risk.

Also, I don't play around with BIG plays like you, but buying at $9,300 might not be so bad if you had sold somewhere in the supra $11k or even higher, but yeah I suppose that there are a lot of scenarios that buying at $9,300 might not seem to be too good, unless you are just getting into bitcoin. 

If you are just getting into bitcoin then buying at $9,300 might not be bad at all.  Just keep buying, and accumulating. Selling above $10k seems quite risky, but then you get into the same issues about trying to figure out what is happening, because there are scenarios in which BTC prices might shoot the fuck past $13,880 and go into the sub $19k arena before correcting all the way back down to $10k, but that does not seem to be a scenario that your system anticipates very well... but surely such a price performance or some other weird and unexpected price movement could happen... bitcoin is known for such weird price movements, and I doubt that it is going to stop with the weird price movements any time soon, at least maybe not until BTC prices are well in the area of gold market cap or even quite higher before the manipulation forces will become more debilitated in their abilities to fuck with bitcoin's volatility.

I appreciate your opinion.
I first got into Bitcoin in July 2017, was very lucky that year obviously. But since February 2018 I am more into technical analysis and trading. What I saw in 2018 was mostly the price of Bitcoin dictated by trading tools and not much else. But well of course nothing is written in the stone. I am just very confident about this 12.4k price that we need to break. I am curious to see how it unfolds.

[Alexander_Z]

Anyway, for me things are quite simple at the moment. Bear market is clear now. It's not the time to buy, just monitor, maybe even sell and buy back below 8k. There is nothing to indicate we break that white line. It is just gambling at this stage.

Agreed. Of course, bitcoin is unpredictable, so I do not sell (and will not sell) anything from my main stash (most of which was acquired long ago), but buying now is not a good idea. It is probable that in the coming months there will be a lot of opportunities to buy. $6.4K is possible, maybe it even revisits the $5.8k-6.0k zone. I can only hope that it will not go lower than that and that $3k was indeed the bottom.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I appreciate your opinion.
I first got into Bitcoin in July 2017, was very lucky that year obviously. But since February 2018 I am more into technical analysis and trading. What I saw in 2018 was mostly the price of Bitcoin dictated by trading tools and not much else. But well of course nothing is written in the stone. I am just very confident about this 12.4k price that we need to break. I am curious to see how it unfolds.

Of course, part of the purpose of this forum and this thread is to bat around ideas related to bitcoin, and surely whether to trade or how to trade or strategies to increase your wealth seem quite relevant discussion points.

Also, you likely realize that even though we might not really know the trend until looking at the price movements retrospectively, but any of us would have been quite profitable to have been a buyer and accumulator in 2017 and would have had much better odds to short or to sell in 2018, although any of us could have gotten caught on the wrong side of any trade because even in early  February 2018, bitcoin had already corrected all the way down to $6k from its $19,666 December 2017 highpoint.

In the end, also there might not be as much of a certainty to BTC price direction as there is seemingly more certainty that bitcoin is going to continue to be volatile, just as it has been volatile for its whole life.  So, any way to either take advantage of price volatility or at least to have strategies that provide some practices that provide some price volatility insurance, can be very good practices in bitcoin, even though in the very longer term, if BTC investors are able to hold onto their investments for 3.5 years or longer, then those have also ended up being decently profitable strategies, and even more profitable if there is a longer timeline in which BTC investors are ready, willing and able to hold onto their BTC.

Regarding your confidence about some kind of resistance at 12.4k, maybe you are right, but surely I personally am taking such number with a decently sized grain of salt regarding the extent to which such a number is significant of anything.  We will see.  We will see.  At least we can agree on that part.  The wait and see part.     Continue to talk smack, too,... no problema.   

[Last of the V8s]

BTW for any of you guys that didn't see the end of the Steelers/Browns game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iT_EjH1_xZc

thanks that was ... fun? we'd call it 'handbags', short for handbags at dawn, the idea is grown men behaving like little old ladies fighting with their purses.
would love to know who gets what sort of penalty.

[STT]

It's not the time to buy, just monitor,

I dont disagree exactly, I might be one of the most negative observers as I thought since July once we leave the direct uptrend that oh it'll go down now.   Its never that simple, its done alot since then with plenty of opportunity both directions.    
    Every time its been in this quiet phase though the price can be declining I wouldnt say its as negative as people might feel.   The dangerous point to buy is in the peak prices, people feel confident but 13k was where the worst returns were but now its far more reasonable.   What differs is the time frame people consider, any idea of buying in this environment where we track sideways and price is consolidating I think the buy has to be on a regular basis.   So a buy in November should pair with a buy possibility in April or May , just like a year ago did not appear to be the time to buy either (+ it did fall further still) but in retrospect we see most of the negative was already in the price.
   I've made this mistake before of being too negative when it was quiet and idling, if anything the averaged flat line type of action (rather then in trend moves) is just the marathon stretch to price action more then the sprint but doesnt mean BTC isnt moving forward still.

Crossing 8820 is a negative I think as its relates to ATH and top pricing in May and very roughly 2018 but better guidance near term is 50 day average.   We havent yet closed the weekly bar below 8820 since the last big rise so theres that to watch.

[Last of the V8s]

I am new to the internet so forgive me if this is an old'un. It could equally go for the parties in my country.

The modern usages though deserve a grumble like.

[ivomm]

It's not the time to buy, just monitor,

I dont disagree exactly, I might be one of the most negative observers as I thought since July once we leave the direct uptrend that oh it'll go down now.   Its never that simple, its done alot since then with plenty of opportunity both directions.    
    Every time its been in this quiet phase though the price can be declining I wouldnt say its as negative as people might feel.   The dangerous point to buy is in the peak prices, people feel confident but 13k was where the worst returns were but now its far more reasonable.   What differs is the time frame people consider, any idea of buying in this environment where we track sideways and price is consolidating I think the buy has to be on a regular basis.   So a buy in November should pair with a buy possibility in April or May , just like a year ago did not appear to be the time to buy either (+ it did fall further still) but in retrospect we see most of the negative was already in the price.
   I've made this mistake before of being too negative when it was quiet and idling, if anything the averaged flat line type of action (rather then in trend moves) is just the marathon stretch to price action more then the sprint but doesnt mean BTC isnt moving forward still.

Crossing 8820 is a negative I think as its relates to ATH and top pricing in May and very roughly 2018 but better guidance near term is 50 day average.   We havent yet closed the weekly bar below 8820 since the last big rise so theres that to watch.

In early 2019 the same 'experts' said it is not the time to buy at 3100. When we were at 5K, they said: it will come back to 3100, we will buy then. At 6K: it will come back to 4k, we will buy then. At 9K: it will come back to 6k, we will buy then... Well to the surprise of all, we went to 13800. Then we went back to 7400. And they still  said it is not the time to buy. Then we had the historic 42% pump in 12 hours. Now, they say the same. My point is that obviously all these people don't have enough respect and belief in Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not like some shitcoin that will certainly die in 2-3 years. Bitcoin will be still here and sooner or later the price will surpass 100K. If you don't belive that you can set a lower target - 50K, or 30K. But you have to believe. Otherwise, you have no chance in this game! And if you set your profit in terms of 5-fold, 10-fold, etc. why risking waiting for 10% drop to enter? I don't get it. Really! It is like the diet - I will start from tomorrow. And tomorrow never comes!

[El duderino_]

^
To many people wanna get a grip on BTC and be the one that predicts the outcomes or whatever and many wanna spread fear, but from years of being involved I just figured out no one will be able to tell you the sure things and we can only rely on the fundamentals and long term perspective which are amazing ....

I do like some sober approaches by some guys, and yes I have some fun and hopium injections out of the permabull predictions

[El duderino_]

Btw way whadd'up and who's in for a ^

Lets hope

[LUCKMCFLY]

If the best option is HODL!

When in doubt? #HODL.

Not holding #Bitcoin on Dec, 7 2017 means you would have missed its largest daily absolute gain of $3,608 (25%).

The chart below (from May 2013, when $BTC hit $100) to now shows the impact of the best performant days on the annualized avg. daily returns.

Source: https://twitter.com/BinanceResearch/status/1194919127065878529

[DeathAngel]

Btw way whadd'up and who's in for a ^

Lets hope

The DeathAngel is always ready for a weekend pump. Bring me 5 figures, if there’s any whales listening.
Let’s fast forward to the halving and $20,000 per BTC, I’m bored of this 8k, 9k crap now.

[bitcoinPsycho]

HODL mother fuckers

[jojo69]

well

at least we have each other...

[bitcoinPsycho]

well

at least we have each other...

and bitcoins lol

If it keeps dropping I'm going to have 2 dip into my Christmas fiat stash fomoing all over the place

[Dabs]

You can use Escrow with other people just not with our group ( Escrow has no future )

I beg to disagree, but feel free not to use escrow. No one is going to send up front, the era of "pre orders for miners" is over. Results first. Then you get paid.

No work. No pay. I think it's quite simple and fair.

Anyway, you can continue as you wish. Maybe look for another way of getting funded, another group, ...

[xhomerx10]

.. genius, Hueristic. ...

Hey u used an oxymoron!

But, I was thinking that BTC prices could go up, but on the other hand they could go sideways or down, in the event that they do not go up.  but in the event that they do not go either sideways or down, then surely the odds are considerably high that they must go up. 

Surely any of us is correct in our BTC price predictions, so long as we make sure that we cover all possible BTC price directions.  But then are we saying anything?

unequivocal Logic there.



BTW for any of you guys that didn't see the end of the Steelers/Browns game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iT_EjH1_xZc

 The Steelers are my team but I missed the game last night. Based on what I see in the video you posted, Myles missed reading his horoscope yesterday too.



credit: https://www.horoscope.com/us/horoscopes/general/horoscope-general-daily-yesterday.aspx?sign=9
 
 

[Icygreen]

Last time I started to be worried and depressed we rallied from the bottom. Not sure if I feel depressed enough already... but it's not that far.

On the other hand I still think we are somewhat ahead on price schedule and that's probably the reason I am not so much worried.

As soon as I feel like the sky is gonna fall onto my head I will let you guys know so you can act accordingly. DYOR though.

I am starting to think we need one final capitulation event (which doesn't mean a lower bottom) before the halving rally. We will see.

HODL.

Somebody just needs to give away 50 BTC for Kryptonianus, who speaks in plural of himself (like an emperor).
Everything will be fine after!

Please don't invoke that clown. It was funny the first few times, but not anymore. And please no more escrow offers either

....snip....

Well now that this scammer is around again, was listening to some podcasts on YT and autoplay regurgitated a recent one between Richard Heart and John McAffee. Before my ears start to bleed, I found it very interesting that RH thinks Bitcoin's price will not rise without a strong advertising team. Sound familiar?