Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Alexander_Z]

Frankly it is not looking good at the moment, I would even say it's time to sell, and buy back below 8k. I am pretty sure we are heading towards 7k-ish but hopefully we never go back below 6.4k. If we go back below 6.4 there will be a lot of blood (not like the movie).
Then in the middle term there should be a bounce back above 10k (I hope) but breaking above 11k and most importantly above 12.4k will be very tough.
Just hoping the halving will make things move to our advantage, but the technical analysis is looking very ugly in the short term  

Posted 10 days ago.

I was talking about this 6.4k price, not surprised at all we went towards this price, thought it would be in December though.

Quite confident there is a bounce back from there though. It is a major and strong support.

Yes, I remember this post. The current situation is very ugly, looking more and more like the end of 2018. I would not be surprised if we go to 5.2k to form inverse head and shoulders. Cryptowinter is not over yet. Even 3k (and double bottom) is not impossible.

[Majormax]

Frankly it is not looking good at the moment, I would even say it's time to sell, and buy back below 8k. I am pretty sure we are heading towards 7k-ish but hopefully we never go back below 6.4k. If we go back below 6.4 there will be a lot of blood (not like the movie).
Then in the middle term there should be a bounce back above 10k (I hope) but breaking above 11k and most importantly above 12.4k will be very tough.
Just hoping the halving will make things move to our advantage, but the technical analysis is looking very ugly in the short term  

Posted 10 days ago.

I was talking about this 6.4k price, not surprised at all we went towards this price, thought it would be in December though.

Quite confident there is a bounce back from there though. It is a major and strong support.

Yes, I remember this post. The current situation is very ugly, looking more and more like the end of 2018. I would not be surprised if we go to 5.2k to form inverse head and shoulders. Cryptowinter is not over yet. Even 3k (and double bottom) is not impossible.

Yes. It was looking bad after 13500 failed, as I posted at the time. The 10500 failure was even worse, as I also posted.

The loss of 7300, and the way it happened, now leaves open the possibility of a new low for the bear move (3k) sometime in the next year.  (This is, of course just chart-reading, which may or may not apply to BTC).

The real test now (and also arguably the biggest test of BTC's life) will be the halvening.  If the price does not show very considerable strength in the next year, that would be a sign that the whole game has changed.

Unfortunately, the outcome will take around a year to define . As always, it will be a test of faith, so doubters should sell now (although better during the expected bounce to 7.5k) , and hodlers should find some other diversion for their interest !

[hnbdgr]

Hu guys! I have a big respect for all who post here!!! I am a new generation honey badger and learned a lot from you! I am contemplating to take a bank loan equal to 2 year salary. My bank has some good  5 year credits (about 12% interest for the whole period). Even if the price falls to the 3100 bottom, it will recover soon, I have no worries about that. This is probably the last chance to increase my stash with several whole coins before the halving.

P.S. My friends who were afraid to buy at 3100 earlier this year, are now planning to invest serously. Bull sign that good times are ahead!

[JayJuanGee]

Frankly it is not looking good at the moment, I would even say it's time to sell, and buy back below 8k. I am pretty sure we are heading towards 7k-ish but hopefully we never go back below 6.4k. If we go back below 6.4 there will be a lot of blood (not like the movie).
Then in the middle term there should be a bounce back above 10k (I hope) but breaking above 11k and most importantly above 12.4k will be very tough.
Just hoping the halving will make things move to our advantage, but the technical analysis is looking very ugly in the short term  

Posted 10 days ago.

I was talking about this 6.4k price, not surprised at all we went towards this price, thought it would be in December though.

Quite confident there is a bounce back from there though. It is a major and strong support.

Yes, I remember this post. The current situation is very ugly, looking more and more like the end of 2018. I would not be surprised if we go to 5.2k to form inverse head and shoulders. Cryptowinter is not over yet. Even 3k (and double bottom) is not impossible.

Yes. It was looking bad after 13500 failed, as I posted at the time. The 10500 failure was even worse, as I also posted.

The loss of 7300, and the way it happened, now leaves open the possibility of a new low for the bear move (3k) sometime in the next year.  (This is, of course just chart-reading, which may or may not apply to BTC).

Exactly.  Your being wrong may apply to BTC, which means that BTC did not fail to break above $13,500 or $10,500 or $7,300.  Finding those as meaningful resistance areas rather than the tops of local tops are merely bad readings of the charts.

The real test now (and also arguably the biggest test of BTC's life) will be the halvening. 

No need to be soooooo dramatic Majormax.  The halvening is not a BIG test, but it is a restriction of the new supply that could take 6-18months or even longer to play out.

Of course, many of us are thinking, based on a seemingly front running of the four year fractal that BTC could be front running such price run, but surely such physical pressures could possibly be staved off for a longer period of time to try to shake more weak hands and to shake folks from believing in the four year fractal or whatever.  Nonetheless, it is not really as much of a BIG test as it is merely a waiting and seeing how all of the many factors play out including how BIG players attempt to use some of the new financialization tools at their disposal and whether BTC's hard supply limits are going to make it much more difficult to use such tools to keep king daddy down.

If the price does not show very considerable strength in the next year, that would be a sign that the whole game has changed.

I doubt it.  There could be efforts to keep king daddy bitcoin down for a period that is longer than one year, and maybe even two years, but seems also that the limited supply is going to be a problem for anyone attempting to keep her down for too long, and especially if more and more people move to managing their own private keys and refusing to sell which shrinks even more the amount of BTC supply that is available for trading or creating the appearance that BIG players are not engaging in fractional reserves- or they may just admit that they are engaging in fractional reserves, which might cause even more push towards keeping your own keys and causing a premium on those who are keeping their own keys.

Unfortunately, the outcome will take around a year to define .

Could take longer if such shenanigans are attempted during this fractal cycle to attempt to demoralize those who are believing in the 4-year fractal cycle.

As always, it will be a test of faith, so doubters should sell now, and hodlers should find some other diversion for their interest !

You said that a few times before, especially in late 2018 before it was confirmed that we had been in a bear market (after the November halvening of BTC price), and so far currently, since about May, we are still confirmed to be in a bull market, so there could be some fireworks here that people interested in BTC would like to witness... and yeah we could go back down to a bear market, but probably we would need to get down into the sub $5ks and likely even below our April 1 breakout price of $4,200.. which could be a bit of a challenge to get there.  NOT impossible, but surely a challenge.

[Majormax]

.....since about May, we are still confirmed to be in a bull market, so there could be some fireworks here that people interested in BTC would like to witness... and yeah we could go back down to a bear market, but probably we would need to get down into the sub $5ks and likely even below our April 1 breakout price of $4,200.. which could be a bit of a challenge to get there.  NOT impossible, but surely a challenge.

Agree with most of your points.

Just one question : How are we confirmed to be in a bull market ?   ( Empirical evidence) 

The shape of the chart looks to me like a rally in a bear market. It has that sort of shape, with the rises sharp, and the falls grinding and waterfall-like.

The shape was like a bull market up to June this year, but suddenly everything changed with that spike to 13500.

[JayJuanGee]

Why doesn't anyone talk about Snowden an his tweet, which probably caused the pump from 7.4k to 10.3k? That picture could be a signal that he wanted to say he is the ANON who predicted 16k by october 2019. And after october ended and didn't bring 16k it slowly dumped even lower than before.

What do you have to say about this?

correlation is not causation. 

[Majormax]

We are all attempting a brave technical analysis of the price, but I have to accept that it is difficult to put any real short term meaning into these charts.


The two camps of Technical vs Fundamental analysis are at odds with each other most of the time, as has always been the case with stocks and commodities trading.

[JayJuanGee]

.....since about May, we are still confirmed to be in a bull market, so there could be some fireworks here that people interested in BTC would like to witness... and yeah we could go back down to a bear market, but probably we would need to get down into the sub $5ks and likely even below our April 1 breakout price of $4,200.. which could be a bit of a challenge to get there.  NOT impossible, but surely a challenge.

Agree with most of your points.

Just one question : How are we confirmed to be in a bull market ?   ( Empirical evidence) 

I will agree that not everyone is confirmed, but the move up from $4,200 and then staying above $6k for a decent amount of time in May confirmed tentatively the entering into a bull market, which has not been subsquently refuted by further market performance which would likely need to bring us quite a bit below $6k. and to stay there... of course, passage of time should be considered too, but part of the underlying presumption is that we do not bounce in and out of bull market, bear market, bull market so easily... and sure sometimes we might end up being in one or another but not able to really confirm what we are in for many months after we are already in it... 


 

The shape of the chart looks to me like a rally in a bear market.

Yes, we have differing conclusions.  Of course, with subsequent BTC price performance you could be correct, even that the rally to $13,880 did not bring us out of the bear market, we just had a bit of a fake out that lasted more than 7 months...blah blah blah... but I doubt that we are there, yet.

 

It has that sort of shape, with the rises sharp, and the falls grinding and waterfall-like.

The shape was like a bull market up to June this year, but suddenly everything changed with that spike to 13500.

Do you really believe that BTC bounces in and out of markets in less than year time frames?   Doesn't seem to be the case in bitcoin, at least currently.  You will concede that October 2015 to December 2017 was a bull market, and I will concede that January 2018 to December 2018 was a bear market.  So we agree on those time frames?  Accordingly, we are trying to figure out where we are at currently, and maybe you are correct to suggest that it is no longer unambiguously a bull market, but I would assert (like I already did) that we gotta get much lower to get removed from having had tentatively converted into a bull market as of May 2019... which would end up getting retrospectively labelled back to January-ish.. and of course, we can have some differences of opinions on those matters too... regarding relevant break out points or the foundational points from which we would like to measure.

[HairyMaclairy]

Excellent capitulation by the crowd in here. 5/7. 

[Majormax]

Excellent capitulation by the crowd in here. 5/7. 

Hopefully, yes. At least for a short term bottom.

What matters more is how the actual traders are responding. The only indicator of their state of mind is price and volume.

[somac.]

Hu guys! I have a big respect for all who post here!!! I am a new generation honey badger and learned a lot from you! I am contemplating to take a bank loan equal to 2 year salary. My bank has some good  5 year credits (about 12% interest for the whole period). Even if the price falls to the 3100 bottom, it will recover soon, I have no worries about that. This is probably the last chance to increase my stash with several whole coins before the halving.

P.S. My friends who were afraid to buy at 3100 earlier this year, are now planning to invest serously. Bull sign that good times are ahead!

Fortune favours the bold my friend. But, if your are going to do something like that make sure you can afford a 100% loss. It's not just the price going down. Exchanges can be hacked (lose coins if kept there), private keys can be misplaced, hardware wallets can be lost, 24 word seeds written down could be found by others.

So if you are going to take a loan, make sure that all your bases are covered first.

Good luck!

[bitebits]

Just stacked some Sats (am I doing this right?). Could not resist. Holdings at another ATH, which is easy when never sold any or attempt ‘storing’ them on an exchange.

All this fuzz about price fluctuations. How come this is still surprising after an almost 11 year track record doing so?

[JayJuanGee]

Excellent capitulation by the crowd in here. 5/7. 

Are you suggesting me?

If we go below a certain price and stay there, then I might conclude that we are no longer in a bull market... but we still seem quite a way off from that kind of concession from me.

Or are you referring to the capitulation of some other WO peeps?

I saw several of the regulars such as LFC and Mindrust saying that they are buying, biodom no longer blurting out bearish baloney and instead a bit more ambivalent and maybe d-eddie saying that he had failed to short sufficiently... and even bob has not really been complaining too much, in this correction.  Sure V8 has some end of life chantings, but he's been doing that for quite a while, too... By the way, Lambie had been calling for a correction ever since about May when we went above $6k or so, so I am not sure if he would count for anything merely because he is getting cocky and acting like he was right all along while conveniently ignoring the fact that he had been calling for down since about May-ish. 

Anyhow, I am a bit unclear from where you are getting our capitulation because we are all over the place.. even while maybe a bit resolved that we had reached close to 65% down from our $13,880.  What else can be done?

[El duderino_]

^
F*** Y** JJG what about me, what am I doing ?   

Will give a hindsight me is HODLing as always, HODL through every singel bump that our precious narrative writes us   

[Majormax]

Excellent capitulation by the crowd in here. 5/7. 

Anyhow, I am a bit unclear from where you are getting our capitulation because we are all over the place.. even while maybe a bit resolved that we had reached close to 65% down from our $13,880.  What else can be done?

Looking back at the last 5 pages, that's true, a very split opinion.  The poll results show that as well.

[P_Shep]

This is fine.

[Phil_S]

Someone woke up and started to abuse the buy button.

[dragonvslinux]

I think we're done here. It's taken more than two months, but the original bearish target looks complete, at least by a margin or error being $116.



Now we just need a strong bounce back above $7400-$7500 and we're good in my opinion 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Personally, I suspect that it is not easy to see s-curve adoption while in the midst of it, but jeez, just mentioning the $300 to $500 price range was about where we were bouncing around during early 2016 - right before that particular halvening.

Couldn't between a 13x ($500) and 22x ($300) price increase from our current $6,600 in 4 years serve as a kind of ballpark indication that we might possibly remain within a kind of s-curve adoption?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?

Even a 10 x appreciation from here would put us at an amazing figure JJG.

[HairyMaclairy]

Excellent capitulation by the crowd in here. 5/7.  

Anyhow, I am a bit unclear from where you are getting our capitulation because we are all over the place.. even while maybe a bit resolved that we had reached close to 65% down from our $13,880.  What else can be done?

Looking back at the last 5 pages, that's true, a very split opinion.  The poll results show that as well.

The vibe I have been getting is strongly sookie la la.  Exhibit A is SuperTA directly above me. Which is a good sign.  

It feels a bit early for us to rally back from here but we might possibly have front run the Thanksgiving funk this year.  I still think more likely a few days of pain left but let’s see.