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Question: Next Bubble Top (resulting in a new ATH):
Will never reach a new ATH - 10 (8.5%)
$20,000-$49,999 - 24 (20.3%)
$50,000-$99,999 - 29 (24.6%)
$100,000-$149,999 - 23 (19.5%)
$150,000-$199,999 - 9 (7.6%)
$200,000-$249,999 - 7 (5.9%)
$250,000-$299,999 - 2 (1.7%)
$300,000-$350,000 - 1 (0.8%)
>$350,000 - 13 (11%)
Total Voters: 118

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21505105 times)
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Alexander_Z
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November 28, 2019, 12:44:50 PM

Halving either won't have an impact, or it will but certainly not before 2 or 3 years. If only it was that simple, everyone would be making money with the halving coming soon. That's extremely simplistic to think this way.

Exactly. It probably will have an impact, but not like the previous two halvings.
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November 28, 2019, 12:47:51 PM
Merited by LUCKMCFLY (1)

Hi WO!!

Bakkt update ..

Quote
Daily summary of Wednesday's Bakkt Bitcoin Monthly Futures:

📈 Traded contracts: 5671 ($42.52 million, +148%)  (New ATH 🚀)
🚀 All time high: 5671 (11/27/2019)
💰 Open interest: $4.16 million (+6%)

Follow
@BakktBot
 for updates - Sats welcome @ https://tippin.me/@BakktBot

Source: @BakktBot

We are discussing this news here on this semi-neglected thread:
Bakkt


Halving either won't have an impact, or it will but certainly not before 2 or 3 years. If only it was that simple, everyone would be making money with the halving coming soon. That's extremely simplistic to think this way.

Exactly. It probably will have an impact, but not like the previous two halvings.

I disagree. HAlving impact has been constant (in log terms)

I follow this model:
Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity



Last of the V8s
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November 28, 2019, 01:01:37 PM
Last edit: November 28, 2019, 01:15:31 PM by Last of the V8s

another day another lie

@hernzzzzzz https://twitter.com/hernzzzzzz/status/1200033576818864128?s=20
Quote
"The bitcoin cash community" managed to get on the TV again. Made it 20 seconds before this gem...

BCH is up a couple thousand percent over the last 5 years - @rogerkver



Quote
Roger Ver, CEO of Bitcoin.com, said on CNBC's "Fast Money" that for years he's recommended investors not hold bitcoin on exchanges, which can be hacked.
But right now, he said, investors may want to keep their holdings on an exchange so they can easily transfer their funds into another digital coin in case bitcoin falls out of popularity.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/20/bitcoin-jesus-says-investors-should-be-ready-in-case-bitcoin-falls-out-of-favor.html
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November 28, 2019, 01:06:49 PM
Last edit: November 28, 2019, 01:20:47 PM by goldkingcoiner
Merited by El duderino_ (4), vapourminer (2)

Sunlight is literally ionizing radiation

I don't like the word ionizing in the context of people using it like 1% power below ionizing (i.e. instantaneous damage) is somehow safe.  The word ionizing implies there are somehow two entirely separate categories of energy:  one safe, one unsafe.  When it's just a single, sliding scale and the higher you go, the more dangerous it is, as it pertains to humans at least.  I personally even use wireless G (2.4ghz) instead of AC:

Quote
In 2010, the German media reported that cancer rates in Germany have increased by 90% in men and 40% in women since 1990, an era when Germans began using wireless phones with a vengeance.

Well, the meaning of ionizing is not really defined by your own subjective understanding of it. Science says yes, there are safe and unsafe energy levels. The electromagnetic radiation from wireless phones is safe because it cannot ionize other atoms. Neither can your microwave do this... Yes, it can excite atoms aka "heat it up" but it is not nearly powerful enough to knock particles out of the atom itself. You're comparing the wrong things. Think of it this way: You can fill a cup with coffee only to a certain point. After that point it will 100% overflow and stain your signed copy of Mein Kampf.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binding_energy

This is my domain. If you're going to spout bullshit, back it up with actual science. Show me your math. I am not going to accept the statistics you pulled out of your butt as evidence.
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November 28, 2019, 01:10:02 PM

Buying at 6.5k is certainly good for a short term profit. If not too greedy of course, I mean small profit like 20-25%, 6.5k is a very strong support for now.

20-25% is fine, I plan to play with some small amounts first to augment my current inclome. Shorting and/or margin trading is too risky for my taste, so "buy low, sell high" is the only strategy left.

About next year, "bouncing off 5.2k" well the ABC correction clearly shows we will go below 5k, but perhaps we will stay around 5.5k for a while but for me we definitely go below 5k at some point next year.
I am curious to see how 2020 unfolds. If this prediction becomes true then we'll use the same tools for 2021-2025.


About the chart posted by alevlaslo, I like it.




I like it because it confirms the bearish trend for 2020 but it's a more a long term prediction anyway which looks bullish. I am convinced Bitcoin price will be very good in 2025 but there should be a lot of blood in 2020 and 2021 which many holders losing hope.

Crashing below 5k would be truly spectacular. But it seems to me that such a long basically sideways trend presents some good trading opportunities. My Plan B, since Plan A (holding) will take years.
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November 28, 2019, 01:22:21 PM
Merited by VB1001 (1)

Just a matter of time before Ripple overtakes Ethereum for good, I mean for real with no coming back.

I even think Ethereum will eventually die while Ripple will remain on the market. Just think how much money Eth holders have lost last 12 months, especially those who bought exactly 12 months ago  Roll Eyes

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November 28, 2019, 01:33:17 PM

Exactly. It probably will have an impact, but not like the previous two halvings.

I disagree. HAlving impact has been constant (in log terms)

I follow this model:
Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity


Thanks for the link, I know about the model, but not in detail. Its main problem, from my point of view, is that there have been only two halving events, too few for more or less solid statistics.
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November 28, 2019, 01:33:44 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzFR2I3TKyk
footage has been found of LFC_Bitcoin hunting down innocent newbies. notice how he silently encourages the onlookers to lure the noob with pieces of bread
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November 28, 2019, 01:41:50 PM

Twisted way to feed alligator.....
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November 28, 2019, 01:43:21 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzFR2I3TKyk
footage has been found of LFC_Bitcoin hunting down innocent newbies. notice how he silently encourages the onlookers to lure the noob with pieces of bread

The video made me really crave some nice pork....


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November 28, 2019, 02:22:11 PM

........but for 2020 no reason to be optimistic. I will personally sell at 9k and wait for another buy point which would be around 4k next year.


PS: there is nothing "trolling" about calling bear trends. It is crystal clear the trend is bearish right now and will last for at least 6 months. 

I would say that scenario is pretty bearish.  Of course, you are not calling for zero, but you are fairly strongly asserting that $6,515 is not our bottom for this part of the correction.  I actually am o.k. that $6,515 might end up getting tested again, and part of the reason is that we are still within pretty close striking distance of that price.

So, $4k scenario is another thing, which seems difficult to get to, especially since we already had about 85% correction and then another 62% correction which seems more than sufficient in order to largely resume up, but to perhaps again challenge the 62% part of it.... but $4k would bring us pretty damned close to challenging the 85% which seems to ignore a lot of the development and even the scarcity aspects of bitcoin, including that some people coming into bitcoin largely remove their coins from liquidity and they do not trade them or even put them in a place that is tradeable.

Regarding your not to be optimistic about 2020 assertion, perhaps there could be some sense that any additional attempted testing of the bottom could carry on and take a decent while to resolve, yet the halvening brings strong physical pressures on supply, that will likely become stronger and stronger felt, especially as time passes after the halvening.... and even players like BAKKT seem to be making certain demands of some of the BTC supply, and some of those likely larger players getting into bitcoin through BAKKT are going to become enlightened to bitcoin, but also learn about the direct buying of bitcoin and holding their own stash, which means more BTC removed from the market... so we will see, we will see.  I think what you are describing is in the lower than 25% probability area rather than really any kind of scenario that should be treated seriously in terms of more probable paths that are surely less bearish, and really more bullish... which does seem to be the more likely path that we are on... we are in a bull market, by the way, so there is that, too... and we would have to get out of the bull market before bearish scenarios would approach 50/50 probabilities.   Tongue
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November 28, 2019, 02:24:01 PM

Finally a place where the assholes of the world can unite and talk about.. uhm.. their assholes ?  Undecided
Do we get a new poll about this new topic as well ?

Edit : mmmm maybe we should first address current poll.
question : does Mic own a boat ? Could help with the voting....

He don't like boats, so there's that.

You see what happens......

hahahaha...

Moral lesson.


Stop doing the things that you do not like.   Angry Angry Angry


lol
where the hell is Bob?

Packing for vacation. Rick and I are heading to Turks and Caicos tomorrow to tan our assholes. Will be back early next week.

Pics or it didn't happen!

STFU JJG ...... Thursday is here thank youuuu

Since so many peeps had been suggesting that they could have their own day in the week, I though that I had been forgotten. 


Thank you so very much for remembering.....  Tongue Tongue Tongue Tongue Tongue







In other words, get a life..., and go look for either 1) your nano or 2) the back-up seed!!!!!!!


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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November 28, 2019, 02:38:34 PM
Merited by VB1001 (1)

I will be having busy evening today. My baby just girl turned 1 year. I remember in the same day last year I was stressed. They took the mom in the OT and after half an hour the doc said we had a baby girl. Our first baby and she is my world, she is my bitcoin girl!

There will be a small session between me and my bitcoin girl, exclusively for WO brothers. Of course you lot are one of the part of my world too.

Keep my girl in your good wishes.

Observing @ $7,468
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November 28, 2019, 02:39:45 PM
Merited by fillippone (1)

Someone betting on GOLD going to $4,000:

Bold Bets That Gold Could Triple to $4,000 Trade in New York

Quote
Around noon in New York Wednesday, 5,000 lots of a gold option giving the holder the right to buy the precious metal at $4,000 an ounce in June 2021 changed hands. The bets were sold at $3.50 an ounce.



First thoughts:

  • If gold goes to $ 4,000, what happens to digital gold?
  • Might be something hedging their short positions on gold (like, but opposite to, Ray Dalio buying puts on the S&P?)


Sounds like a lot of hopium to me...




Goldbugs have been wishing for something like that for more 10 years.  Instead, we have bitcoin... The gold thing is way inferior to bitcoin in a lot of ways and a more than doubling does not seem to have more than a 10% of happening, so we should NOT be taking such pie in the sky scenarios in regards to gold more than doubling in the next couple of years too seriously.
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November 28, 2019, 02:47:56 PM

The halving is in 6 months Bossian, you’re either trolling or totally retarded if you think $4,000 is likely with a block reward halving imminent. That’s a 50% drop from here. It just isn’t going to happen.

Look at the price movements leading up to & following the previous block reward halvings.
You clearly have no idea what you’re doing or you’re trolling & I can’t figure out which.
 
Halving either won't have an impact, or it will but certainly not before 2 or 3 years. It only it was that simple, everyone would be making money with the halving coming soon. That's extremely simplistic to think this way.

Want to put your money where your mouth is?

0.05BTC bet?

  • I say we see a new ATH before 2022
  • You say we won’t?

Deal.

We won't see 19k again in 2020 or 2021, book it.

Hope you will honor this bet Smiley I will if wrong.

Deal!

I’m a man of my word!
 

I trust LFC.. for it, but seems like an escrow deal to me because Bossian is the way more likely to lose the bet (especially out to 2022... holy fuck) and has not been around for very long.

https://archive.is/tilzS

here's your silly bet archived by a fourth party

note that LFC has far more to lose in terms of reputation than Bossian

Bet has been archived. It will stay there, no need to do anything stupid like a contract. Let’s just see how it plays out, pretty sure I will win Smiley

Now when 8k Wink
Agree, I will be there too and will keep my word no matter what. 0.05 is not that big anyway with the trading profits made since last year.

But But what about the trading losses by the day of payment.......... we Wall Observers think about all possible scenario's in order of payment and keeping word etc  Tongue

Who knows.

Another possible scenario, Bitcoin price is below $1 at the end of 2021, in that case no one needs to honor his bet at such ridiculous price (that's a very unlikely scenario though).

By the way that goes without saying but considering price fluctuation I would expect a payment within 3 business days starting from January 1, 2022, hope LFC is fine with these terms.

Bet is likely to be resolved in LFC's favor way before 2022... perhaps early 2020... but could drag out to 2021.. surely there are a lot of days in 2021... 365 if I remember my maths correctly.

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November 28, 2019, 02:52:23 PM
Last edit: November 28, 2019, 03:04:47 PM by VB1001



Fantastic.



Antonopoulos: Cash-Settled Bitcoin Futures Traders Face ‘Black Hole’

Quote
Bitcoin (BTC) educator Andreas Antonopoulos says that while futures markets may indeed place a damper on the cryptocurrency’s price, the stakes are different to what you might think.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/antonopoulos-cash-settled-bitcoin-futures-traders-face-black-hole

We continue with the black holes. Cheesy
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November 28, 2019, 03:10:36 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Exactly. It probably will have an impact, but not like the previous two halvings.

I disagree. HAlving impact has been constant (in log terms)

I follow this model:
Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity


Thanks for the link, I know about the model, but not in detail. Its main problem, from my point of view, is that there have been only two halving events, too few for more or less solid statistics.

The model has been working even BEFORE the first halving. So the number of halving is pretty irrelevant.
Model parameters considering 2009-2012 data points (before first halving) are very similar to ones obtained considering the whole BTC price history.
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November 28, 2019, 03:20:29 PM

Nice face!

Quote
BTC/USD | $BTCUSD | $BTC $USD

BTCUSD Is Smiling With It's H&S Bottom

Long or short it on WCX: http://wcex.com/trade/BTC-USD


Source: https://twitter.com/IdeasPrime/status/1200068331144962048

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November 28, 2019, 03:58:10 PM

Halving either won't have an impact, or it will but certainly not before 2 or 3 years. If only it was that simple, everyone would be making money with the halving coming soon. That's extremely simplistic to think this way.

Exactly. It probably will have an impact, but not like the previous two halvings.
Buy the rumors and sell the news. As simples as that, no need to overcomplicate the news trading. The party will start early and the late participants will start to dance when the music stops.
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November 28, 2019, 04:01:29 PM

Just a matter of time before Ripple overtakes Ethereum for good, I mean for real with no coming back.

I even think Ethereum will eventually die while Ripple will remain on the market. Just think how much money Eth holders have lost last 12 months, especially those who bought exactly 12 months ago  Roll Eyes



Does this altcoin portfolio comes under NSFW  Wink
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