Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Someone betting on GOLD going to $4,000:

Bold Bets That Gold Could Triple to $4,000 Trade in New York

Around noon in New York Wednesday, 5,000 lots of a gold option giving the holder the right to buy the precious metal at $4,000 an ounce in June 2021 changed hands. The bets were sold at $3.50 an ounce.

First thoughts:

• If gold goes to $ 4,000, what happens to digital gold?
• Might be something hedging their short positions on gold (like, but opposite to, Ray Dalio buying puts on the S&P?)

Sounds like a lot of hopium to me...




Goldbugs have been wishing for something like that for more 10 years.  Instead, we have bitcoin... The gold thing is way inferior to bitcoin in a lot of ways and a more than doubling does not seem to have more than a 10% of happening, so we should NOT be taking such pie in the sky scenarios in regards to gold more than doubling in the next couple of years too seriously.

[1714141967]

1714141967

[1714141967]

1714141967

[JayJuanGee]

The halving is in 6 months Bossian, you’re either trolling or totally retarded if you think $4,000 is likely with a block reward halving imminent. That’s a 50% drop from here. It just isn’t going to happen.

Look at the price movements leading up to & following the previous block reward halvings.
You clearly have no idea what you’re doing or you’re trolling & I can’t figure out which.
 

Halving either won't have an impact, or it will but certainly not before 2 or 3 years. It only it was that simple, everyone would be making money with the halving coming soon. That's extremely simplistic to think this way.

Want to put your money where your mouth is?

0.05BTC bet?

• I say we see a new ATH before 2022
• You say we won’t?

Deal.

We won't see 19k again in 2020 or 2021, book it.

Hope you will honor this bet I will if wrong.

Deal!

I’m a man of my word!

 

I trust LFC.. for it, but seems like an escrow deal to me because Bossian is the way more likely to lose the bet (especially out to 2022... holy fuck) and has not been around for very long.

https://archive.is/tilzS

here's your silly bet archived by a fourth party

note that LFC has far more to lose in terms of reputation than Bossian

Bet has been archived. It will stay there, no need to do anything stupid like a contract. Let’s just see how it plays out, pretty sure I will win

Now when 8k

Agree, I will be there too and will keep my word no matter what. 0.05 is not that big anyway with the trading profits made since last year.

But But what about the trading losses by the day of payment.......... we Wall Observers think about all possible scenario's in order of payment and keeping word etc  

Who knows.

Another possible scenario, Bitcoin price is below $1 at the end of 2021, in that case no one needs to honor his bet at such ridiculous price (that's a very unlikely scenario though).

By the way that goes without saying but considering price fluctuation I would expect a payment within 3 business days starting from January 1, 2022, hope LFC is fine with these terms.

Bet is likely to be resolved in LFC's favor way before 2022... perhaps early 2020... but could drag out to 2021.. surely there are a lot of days in 2021... 365 if I remember my maths correctly.

[VB1001]

Fantastic.


Antonopoulos: Cash-Settled Bitcoin Futures Traders Face ‘Black Hole’

Bitcoin (BTC) educator Andreas Antonopoulos says that while futures markets may indeed place a damper on the cryptocurrency’s price, the stakes are different to what you might think.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/antonopoulos-cash-settled-bitcoin-futures-traders-face-black-hole

We continue with the black holes.

[fillippone]

Exactly. It probably will have an impact, but not like the previous two halvings.

I disagree. HAlving impact has been constant (in log terms)

I follow this model:
Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

Thanks for the link, I know about the model, but not in detail. Its main problem, from my point of view, is that there have been only two halving events, too few for more or less solid statistics.

The model has been working even BEFORE the first halving. So the number of halving is pretty irrelevant.
Model parameters considering 2009-2012 data points (before first halving) are very similar to ones obtained considering the whole BTC price history.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Nice face!

BTC/USD | $BTCUSD | $BTC $USD

BTCUSD Is Smiling With It's H&S Bottom

Long or short it on WCX: http://wcex.com/trade/BTC-USD

Source: https://twitter.com/IdeasPrime/status/1200068331144962048

[PuertoLibre]

Halving either won't have an impact, or it will but certainly not before 2 or 3 years. If only it was that simple, everyone would be making money with the halving coming soon. That's extremely simplistic to think this way.

Exactly. It probably will have an impact, but not like the previous two halvings.

Buy the rumors and sell the news. As simples as that, no need to overcomplicate the news trading. The party will start early and the late participants will start to dance when the music stops.

[Tronx]

Just a matter of time before Ripple overtakes Ethereum for good, I mean for real with no coming back.

I even think Ethereum will eventually die while Ripple will remain on the market. Just think how much money Eth holders have lost last 12 months, especially those who bought exactly 12 months ago  

Does this altcoin portfolio comes under NSFW 

[Last of the V8s]

Honestly I don't mind having my face ripped off. Just go for it, see if I care.

[jojo69]

On this day, in some parts of North America, we celebrate the technological inferiority of the original inhabitants at first contact, in particular their total lack of gunpowder and resistance to certain European diseases, by eating large birds until we are physically ill.

Cheers WO.

[xhomerx10]

Just a matter of time before Ripple overtakes Ethereum for good, I mean for real with no coming back.

I even think Ethereum will eventually die while Ripple will remain on the market. Just think how much money Eth holders have lost last 12 months, especially those who bought exactly 12 months ago 

 Restored.

[VB1001]

(.)(.)
^

It will be interesting to see the result of the poll, thx infofront

nohomo, of course

StrongHats & Hodl

[VB1001]

Bitcoin Analysis.

- Bull cycles are getting longer.
- ROI since bottom are decreasing.

Conclusion of cycle IV:

Next top: ~ 1400 days since bottom. ETA December 2022
ROI: ~40X since bottom, ~120k $.

https://twitter.com/IamCryptoWolf/status/1199703369880915969

[Last of the V8s]

Happy

celebrate the technological inferiority of the original inhabitants at first contact, in particular their total lack of gunpowder and resistance to certain European diseases, by eating large birds until we are physically ill

day to all.

[fillippone]

Guys,
I have heard the most bullish news since a long time:

From 2020, the sale and custody of Bitcoin will be allowed to all German banks

So far, there was a clear legal separation between the normal regulated banking and crypto transactions. The custody and trading of Bitcoin and Kryptos has until now always been outsourced to specialized partners or subsidiaries with appropriate licenses. By 2020 all German banks should be redeemed.

If all German banks can suddenly sell bitcoin to their customers with a few clicks from 2020, that is a big digital transformation of the traditional banks. It could finally enable the bitcoin and blockchain industry in Germany to compete on equal terms with other states. Although the Federal Council still has to approve the new law, the approval is considered certain.

I opened a thread about that here:
From 2020, the sale and custody of Bitcoin will be allowed to all German banks

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

There will be a small session between me and my bitcoin girl, exclusively for WO brothers. Of course you lot are one of the part of my world too.

There you go!
Short session only for WO!

[Biodom]

Bitcoin Analysis.

- Bull cycles are getting longer.
- ROI since bottom are decreasing.

Conclusion of cycle IV:

Next top: ~ 1400 days since bottom. ETA December 2022
ROI: ~40X since bottom, ~120k $.

https://twitter.com/IamCryptoWolf/status/1199703369880915969

Merited because of an interesting opinion, but i don't really fully buy the thesis that cycles are bound to increase in length since they are being driven (apparently) by halvings. In addition, if ROI are decreasing, but drawdowns stay the same (around 85%), then I just don't see whay it would continue in this pattern. I would reluctantly agree IF drawdowns were smaller, but so far they are not (to a significant degree).

It's like saying that since this summer was unusually long because of balmy weather it would mean that the next one would be longer still.

[Wendigo]

Swear words at 1 y.o. That kid is going places 

[Globb0]

 cycles are bound to increase in length

[mindrust]

Bitcoin Analysis.

- Bull cycles are getting longer.
- ROI since bottom are decreasing.

Conclusion of cycle IV:

Next top: ~ 1400 days since bottom. ETA December 2022
ROI: ~40X since bottom, ~120k $.

https://twitter.com/IamCryptoWolf/status/1199703369880915969

I didn't like this chart.

This says I gotta wait nearly 3 years for next big boom. 3 years to get 10x profits (from 10k to 100k) is actually not bad but I don't know. It is kinda too late I feel. I don't have enough patience left to get rich and that's why this chart has big chances become real. It is because it is actually painful. Somewhere around mid 2020 or mid 2021, (or from, till) after seeing btc going nowhere, people will say fuck this shit and dump their coins. Then we will go to the next moon. This is how the whales work. They'll only make you rich if you endure the pain long enough.

This bear market, it wasn't long enough.

I prefer masterluc's or filbfilb's charts over this piece of shit any day but life is a bitch.

[HairyMaclairy]

There is no sign the cycle is getting longer.  We are exactly on track.