Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

By the way, I am still on the lookout for a reliable dead man switch arrangement. I'm afraid if anything happens to me, my family won't be able to collect. Any tips? Should I open yet another thread "out there"?

The best way I can see this working is by already transmitting the transaction, to a wallet that your family already own, but with a time delay of anywhere between a few months and a decade (depending on your desire for maintenance). I'd like to think this can be done by transmitting into a specific block in the future with nLockTime (discussion here), but I may be wrong. Possibly there are features within the lightning network that can facilitate this as well but again not sure.

This would act as the most reliable insurance for worst case scenarios, and don't already have shared custody set up, but more importantly would guarantee that your family get your Bitcoin, at an eventual date of your chosing - without the need for the switch, which is a single-point-of-failure in itself. What if you don't have access to your switch for example? Pragmatically speaking this is what you want I believe, a permanent solution dependent only on the variable of time, as opposed to your access to a switch.

Hope that helps with the brainstorming.

Thanks for your reply, dragonvslinux.
Unfortunately, your proposed solution doesn't cut it for me.
My family are mostly nocoiners.
Besides, I don't like to set up a transaction to a different address. IMO, the coins shouldn't move if there is no need to cash out.
What I would like to do is send an encrypted email with instructions on redeeming a wallet through its seed - and send it NOW.
The dead man switch I am imagining would just send the key to decrypt the email containing the seed.

You better hope that those lame heirs of yours do not delete the email or fail to keep that e-mail account active.

In late 2014, I recall that the price of Bitcoin was around $385 at the time.  I had verified an e-mail address of a friend and his son.  I told the dad that I was sending bitcoin to both him and to his son, and I wanted to make sure that I sent the bitcoin to a properly valid e-mail address.  He verified the e-mail addresses and I sent the bitcoin to each address.  I believe that I confirmed with him a couple of times soon after sending the bitcoins and then again about a year after I had sent the bitcoins. 

Then in about January 2018, he "became aware" of bitcoin, and realized that the value that I had sent him had gone 50x at some time towards the top of BTC's price move but he had not opened either of the e-mails.  He said that he no longer had access to those e-mail accounts because they were tied to a family domain name and account that had been closed. I told him that there was nothing that I could do about it on my end.  Maybe I was acting as if I was dead, and I had already done me part, including reminding verifying with him and reminding him on a couple of occasions, but he did not take any action at all to secure the value (the e-mail), until it was too late.

I could think of other scenarios too, in which using an e-mail address might not be so great, and it might not even be the fault of the intended BTC recipient - third party risk that involves them continuing their services.  Remember in the early 2000s, so many people built websites on geocities, and sure they announced that they would be closing down, before they did close down, but a lot of people lost their data if they did not back that data up when they did actually pull the plug from their services.

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[JayJuanGee]

Makes me think we're about to strike upwards

Im a Debbie Downer then, thinking to be looking for some ironic bearish twist where we top out in positions held.   Just like alot of shorts in a price is a time to consider the opposite ?

From your post, I cannot really determine who you are quoting STT, but I gather that you are proclaiming that BTC shorts are starting to pile up, currently?  or they are not?  A little unclear. 

I would recognize that there does seem to be some incentive or fuel that can help to inspire the REKKING of either BTC shorts or longs when they become overly exuberant in their chosen bet direction and they fail or refuse to hedge the opposite direction, and since we cannot track each of the BTC margin traders it is hard to determine if the same traders are getting REKKT over and over again or if the causing of REKKT is a phenomenon that more experienced traders largely employ against the novice traders who want to get rich quick, and even if such novice traders might learn lessons from their gambling too much on one BTC price direction, there tends to be little to no shortage of new novice traders coming into a space, such as bitcoin, in order to try their luck in the margin trading game.

[JayJuanGee]

Looking for the beginning of the hats, written directly, highlighting, the most interesting, just trying to tell this beautiful story:

When reviewing the pages of 2018, the first publication that refers to a hat is a Last of the V8s publication, it seems that it was the trigger of the WO hats at the HairyMaclairy appointment.

From my recollection, this early hat history conversation goes back before October 15, 2018 - because I believe that the main reason that V8 was razzing Hairy so much about hat eating was because months earlier Hairy had said that he would eat his hat if there was certain BTC price movement.  I can't remember exactly the bold prediction, so I went back and looked at Hairy's posts for many months before October 15, but I could not find such post.. so I cannot exactly refresh my memory with an actual post.

I don't know, this morning I arrived until October 10 and I didn't find anything about it and the phrase V8 have you ever eaten a hat?
It refers to the previous publication of hairy for BFX deposits 15 Oct.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg46903711#msg46903711

I do agree that it can be quite funny or ironic how each of us can have differing recollections of aspects of history, and even which parts of the history had pushed forward the dominance of a certain kind of narrative.

Of course, not too much unlike the blindfolded folks assessing what is an elephant from their various perspectives.



Or, perhaps more accurately, like two elephants wrestling?



The one on the bottom is me... hahahahahaha:  "I give up.  I give up."   The one on the top is VB1001.  

[JayJuanGee]

Gann's theory suggests buying the possible dip before the angels touch the next spectrum which will follow the price after the $11250. The Gann theory is widely used in stock and forex technical analyze, is it same for BTC charts? Any ideas?



P.s: Photo is from Twitter.

Yeah, but where is the twitter link?  or the twitter user.  It is better practice to attempt to give appropriate credit, even to the re-tweeting of the ideas came from someone else.

By the way, the Gann theory visual looks quite pretty on that graph, but I am a bit unclear what the theory would be saying in that particular visual.

Members attempt to employ all kinds of technical analysis that involves the drawing of lines, and surely there are going to be times in which the lines help to bring the matter of BTC price performance into perspective, yet with any theory, we have to take them  with grains of salt, and surely there are a variety of theories in bitcoin that attempt to combine technical analysis and fundamentals in order to come up with relatively convincing price description and prescription models... of course, we don't know for sure if any of the models or theories are going to play out in the longer term until time passes that might lend more or less credibility to the model, theory or even tools that might be employed to come up with theories and models.

[mindrust]

Gann's theory suggests buying the possible dip before the angels touch the next spectrum which will follow the price after the $11250. The Gann theory is widely used in stock and forex technical analyze, is it same for BTC charts? Any ideas?



P.s: Photo is from Twitter.

Yeah, but where is the twitter link?  or the twitter user.  It is better practice to attempt to give appropriate credit, even to the re-tweeting of the ideas came from someone else.

By the way, the Gann theory visual looks quite pretty on that graph, but I am a bit unclear what the theory would be saying in that particular visual.

Members attempt to employ all kinds of technical analysis that involves the drawing of lines, and surely there are going to be times in which the lines help to bring the matter of BTC price performance into perspective, yet with any theory, we have to take them  with grains of salt, and surely there are a variety of theories in bitcoin that attempt to combine technical analysis and fundamentals in order to come up with relatively convincing price description and prescription models... of course, we don't know for sure if any of the models or theories are going to play out in the longer term until time passes that might lend more or less credibility to the model, theory or even tools that might be employed to come up with theories and models.

Technical analysis in a nutshell:

-It will go up, down or sideways.

I am yet to see a TA which says something different. It is always the same. May go up, may go down, may go sideways.

*Alright sometimes they say it can go backwards too.

[jupiter9]

Lol you never saw any TA where they predict tops or bottom prices?

[mindrust]

Lol you never saw any TA where they predict tops or bottom prices?

I did.

They also say the same thing.

Just because some TA expert pointed out a bottom price, doesn't mean it can't go to zero.

[Wekkel]

We need to have patience. Current tech wasn't built in a day either. On the contrary, watching this old show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tx6Cq2ZU_ps
is a nice example of tech being there for 10-20 years already before it really takes off.

The hard part is the waiting.... 

[JayJuanGee]

I don't want to mention any alts, but it is a bit strange that AA starts talking about multiple chains forming the "Internet of money". Here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VG-zln3TUg

The only current weakness I see in bitcoin is a potential for a sudden fee increase, which should be alleviated by the LN in principle, however, it's the details that matter. Not a problem right now.

VCs will be hyping other chains, that's beyond the question. SEC tackled telegram for now, but there will be others.
Anybody knows if is there a vehicle that trades bitcoin dominance? It could be an interesting hedge trade.
PlanB, incidentally, thinks that dominance is about to spike higher ("Guess, what's next" twit)
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1203012308513017856

Regarding your first link to the about 20 minute Andreas Antonopolis YouTube video presentation, I don't conclude that AA is really changing his position very much, but he does seem to come out fairly strongly in his ongoing tolerance for a multi-coined future, which seems to give more free market credit to a lot of the shitcoin projects than they likely deserve. 

So, he does seem to kind of come out swinging in his assertion that he has been misunderstood and mislabelled into the maximalist camp (suggesting that the bitcoin community likely has been assigning him as a bitcoiner) and he wants to argue and set the case clear that he is not a maximalist anything.... blah blah blah...  which he makes a lot of references to various ethereum projects and suggesting that those shitcoin projects have some kind of meaningful contributions to the world of crypto.. blockchain.. internet of money.. blah blah blah.

So, yeah, he has been criticized for tolerating and/or enabling too much shitcoin pumpenings and sometimes adopting and accepting too much of the shitcoin propaganda language through his seemingly ongoing enamor of the tech contributions of various shitcoins - even though he does seem to understand concepts of sound money, he also seemed to be downplaying any attention to sound money ideas in this particular presentation and seems like he did not even mention bitcoin one time in the presentation (likely on purpose because he is having an internal struggle against king daddy... hahahahahahaha). 

[JayJuanGee]

IIRC the first hats were not specifically intended to be worn as an avatar. Maybe xhomerx could clear this point and... WTF was he thinking when he came up with the idea

Also was it Hairy the first one to wear his (Genesis) hat as an avatar or was it Rosewater? Were it had been Rosewater that would surely reinforce the cap-itulation meaning of it.

There are also some semi hat related anecdotes like when Vod decided it was a good idea to poke/mess (presumably just for fun) with Mic and it was like the first time a thread out of WO got quickly filled with hats: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5065375.0

I actually liked that thread a lot and the HAT invasion though JJF***G must appear in his classic style of-course  
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5065375.msg47695534#msg47695534

But overal it was a fun moment at that time ....

Gosh you are a hater!!!!!!!

 


I tried to use this meme against someone else, but it ended up backfiring to resemble my avatar too much.  

So I am going to have to embrace such meme, and apply it here in regards to the ongoing hate of the micgeese.

IIRC the first hats were not specifically intended to be worn as an avatar. Maybe xhomerx could clear this point and... WTF was he thinking when he came up with the idea

Also was it Hairy the first one to wear his (Genesis) hat as an avatar or was it Rosewater? Were it had been Rosewater that would surely reinforce the cap-itulation meaning of it.

There are also some semi hat related anecdotes like when Vod decided it was a good idea to poke/mess (presumably just for fun) with Mic and it was like the first time a thread out of WO got quickly filled with hats: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5065375.0

I actually liked that thread a lot and the HAT invasion though JJF***G must appear in his classic style of-course  
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5065375.msg47695534#msg47695534

But overal it was a fun moment at that time ....

Really funny yeah. Somehow the thread got locked after several JJG walls of text and before I could post some memes about Vod "throwing gas to a fire.gif".

I must have ruined dee moo, like a real party poop.   

[Icygreen]

Here's one for the play list. Tim Draper's 250K prediction for 2023, a Dec 31st prediction & a few more gems.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H6Xz4luFb2c
Surely this guy has a massive book to talk and still seems genuine. Credit for being one of the first to call 10K.

[Hueristic]

Mah Patriots look horrible today!

[JayJuanGee]

Here's one for the play list. Tim Draper's 250K prediction for 2023, a Dec 31st prediction & a few more gems.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H6Xz4luFb2c
Surely this guy has a massive book to talk and still seems genuine. Credit for being one of the first to call 10K.

Overall, he comes off as a true believer, and of course, with his purchase of the 30k coins in 2014 for about $640 per coin, he is in 10x floating profits to the extent that he still holds those coins.

I did think that he could have addressed the spiraling mining valuation a bit better.  Of course, he mentioned that mining would be up and down and up and down, but overall profitable, but I think that Draper missed out talking about the difficulty adjustment mechanism that seems to self-correct many of the questions regarding the stability of mining or even the fact that fees are going to have to go shooting way the fuck up in order to incentivize miners.  Neither the question was clear nor the answer, but I am suggesting that he could have touched upon the difficulty adjustments that continue to incentivize miners and will even cause lower hash power miners to come into mining bitcoin in case a bunch of miners were to shut off their mining machines.

[Icygreen]

^
Perhaps keeping it simple for the general audience.  Lots of folks will stop listening if they don't understand what's being said. He appeals to a large group of investors I'd imagine of which most probably won't understand mining.

[JSRAW]

First BTC node in space.

Points to note:
1. Jeff Garzik Bitcoin core developer, possibly This Guy
2. Space agencies for satellite launch Nasa > SpaceX > Chinese (CNSA) then followed by Indian (ISRO) in future.

A Bitcoin Wallet Is Orbiting the Earth at 5 Miles Per Second

CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA – At exactly 12:29 EST on Thursday, a crypto wallet built by developers at SpaceChain hurtled into the stratosphere aboard a Falcon 9 rocket.

When it arrived at the International Space Station, the 1kg node – only a fraction of SpaceX CRS-19 resupply mission's 2,600kg payload – became the first active bitcoin node on the ISS.

For SpaceChain, the launch is a step forward in its mission of building out a robust, decentralized blockchain infrastructure high above the Earth. The wallet will be beyond any country’s jurisdiction – and well above the reach of any physical hardware hacks.

SpaceChain sees its nodes as a radical new way to make crypto transactions more secure. This is the three-year-old company’s third launch and its first from American soil. The other two launches blasted off from China.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Could it be repeated again?

Some patterns are often repeated and stories may be repeated sometimes, but the current circumstances are different.

In a few hours’ time, Bitcoin’s weekly chart is expected to print a golden cross of the 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages, with the former crossing above the latter. As an analyst recently pointed out, the last time this was seen, BTC surged by 75% in the four to five weeks that followed the cross.

The much anticipated weekly candle close for $BTC

The 50/100 MA golden cross is all but confirmed & we're closing on a bounce above fibonacci support from the December bottom in 2018 to the 2019 top

The last golden cross on the weekly led to 75% gains in the following weeks 🚀

Source:https://twitter.com/LilMoonLambo/status/1203726586488508417

On the other hand..


Source: https://twitter.com/crypto_birb/status/1203343292915687424

This difference seems to imply that Bitcoin is unlikely to see a 75% gain, which would bring the cryptocurrency to $13,000 from current prices, in the coming weeks.

Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/12/09/last-weekly-golden-cross-led-bitcoin-rally-75-same-happen-now/

Important movements are expected in 2020, as we are close to the Bitcoin halving, trade war between the U.S. and China, Stablecoins, the largest adoption of Bitcoin, I think all this adds up and will affect Bitcoin positively.

[kellrobinson]

Speaking of parabolic...

[xhomerx10]

Mah Patriots look horrible today!

 Ah you're too hard on them.  They looked really good for the first 3-4 minutes...
Steelers had it easy today - they played the Cards.   Hard not too look good but they tried anyway

[akhjob]

@VB1001 Nice history on the WOhats. I'll be glad if I got one of xhomerx10 hats in future.

I'm glad you liked it, as far as I'm concerned, I only collect information, the hats are xhomerx10 designs he decides when and how.

Oh sorry for the misunderstanding. The 1st sentence was an appreciation for your extensive search. The 2nd one is for xhomerx10
Maybe be I should have separated them with a line 

[jupiter9]

Gann's theory suggests buying the possible dip before the angels touch the next spectrum which will follow the price after the $11250. The Gann theory is widely used in stock and forex technical analyze, is it same for BTC charts? Any ideas?



P.s: Photo is from Twitter.

Yeah, but where is the twitter link?  or the twitter user.  It is better practice to attempt to give appropriate credit, even to the re-tweeting of the ideas came from someone else.

By the way, the Gann theory visual looks quite pretty on that graph, but I am a bit unclear what the theory would be saying in that particular visual.

Members attempt to employ all kinds of technical analysis that involves the drawing of lines, and surely there are going to be times in which the lines help to bring the matter of BTC price performance into perspective, yet with any theory, we have to take them  with grains of salt, and surely there are a variety of theories in bitcoin that attempt to combine technical analysis and fundamentals in order to come up with relatively convincing price description and prescription models... of course, we don't know for sure if any of the models or theories are going to play out in the longer term until time passes that might lend more or less credibility to the model, theory or even tools that might be employed to come up with theories and models.

Technical analysis in a nutshell:

-It will go up, down or sideways.

I am yet to see a TA which says something different. It is always the same. May go up, may go down, may go sideways.

*Alright sometimes they say it can go backwards too.

I googled Gann theory and it says that the 9th year is the most bullish year. Bitcoin 9th year was 2017! Year 10 is a bear year (2018). We are at the end of 11th year. It's interesting. Important days from the tops 90 days there is a bottom at this day and 150 day from the 14k top. The next important day is around 22th of December when bitcoin gets to the important 180th day from the 14k top and Gann theory says that 22th Dec is important no matter if it's the 180th day or not.