Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

There is a formula (Klein Kelly criterion-see wiki) which describes the % of portfolio one should dedicate to a bet.
The problem is-it involves assigning a probability to a trade success, which is almost always an impossible task.
Example: on a trade with 60% success one should invest 20% of the portfolio; trade with 70% success, 40% of portfolio, etc, etc.
Mind you, these %% are "real" numbers, not imaginary ones.
Also, NO MARGIN.

EDIT:
Formula...Fraction of portfolio to invest (in decimals)=[2X(chance of trade success in decimals)]-1
Therefore, 0% to invest when 50:50 (or lower) and 100% to invest when 100% chance of success.
Everything else-in between.

Actually, at 50:50 Klein Kelly says "invest nothing", right - but if the odds are under 50-50, the Klein criterion suggest the opposite bet should be taken, with an amount again determined by the formula you quoted (it will come out as a negative fraction).

Example: on a bet with 40:60 odds (that's less than 0.5), the criterion suggests 2 * (0.40) - 1 = 0.8 - 1 = -0.2,
that is, invest 20% on the OPPOSITE bet (if anything like that exists).

Thanks, great qualification (re the opposite bet)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

The Kelly criterion applies to "simple bets with two outcomes, one involving losing the entire amount bet, and the other involving winning the bet amount multiplied by the payoff odds" (quoted wiki)

The Kelly criterion may be used in investing, but its application there is much more involved than the simple betting forumula.  Wiki has more info.

you're right, bro (re name).
I have some kind of 'last name dyslexia' or something...and I 'infected' d_eddie with it, lol
the formula was right, though.

Darned it, maybe it is another case of "Berenstein Bears" or was it "Berenstain Bears"?
https://news.avclub.com/how-you-spell-the-berenstain-bears-could-be-proof-of-1798282836

<foreboding music>

[JayJuanGee]

Actually more reason that you should not either push the red button or employ option 3.

Hey, mindrust, I think that you already know that I don't give two shits about what you do,...

It just adds entertainment to the thread I believe.

Like the guy who sold his house and bought bitcoins back in the day, when did that happen in 2013?... Lemme check google...

Aaand found it:

I'm All In - Sold My House! I was close it was from 2014.

Dude is a multimillionaire now, if he hedl.

At that time he didn't know what was waiting for him neither... just like me or any other people right now. He did something crazy. It was entertaining. It happens that I'm kinda in a mood for some extreme sports too.

Elwar did something very similar in about mid-2016 if I recall correctly, which involved using the proceeds from his house to buy a decent stash of extra BTC, exponentially increasing his BTC stash at that time... when BTC prices were in the mid-$600s, if i recall correctly, and soon thereafter bitfinex crashed, and many people were calling him stupid for several months; however, by the time we got into early 2017, BTC prices never returned to those $600-ish prices, and his gamble paid off quite handsomely, as we know how the remainder of 2017 ended up playing out.. even with all of the ongoing proclamations of BTC's imminent death through that time.

[JayJuanGee]

Thank you heslo and somac, Fuck you makrospex.

huh?
WTF?!
We all three said the same: Set it to zero.
 

You didn't spoon feed him and were late with the details  

Alright, i see...
I typed my reply in a hurry while the other two WOs were posting already.

EDIT: Backread the thread now and it obviously was the step-by-step google selfhelp instructions from me that set him up.
However, that's how the pro's do it 

If you don't want to help that's fine, but in that case, just don't reply.
Using your precious time to mock me for asking instead of using the same time to answer my question is an asshole move in my book.
I know very little about computers and need to bee spoon fed to get it right, I don't know what I'm doing and really don't want to do something wrong. I can't tell if a online tutorial is correct or not, but I do trust the people in here, that's why I ask. If you knew of any good tutorial, why didn't you direct me to it instead of being a dick?
I don't really see people saying "google it" whenever someone asks about something non computer related so I'm assuming that it's just you computer nerds that have that special asshole gene.

How to win friends and influence people by Arriemoller... read above.     

[JayJuanGee]

CSW fork steal accident is conveniently timed close to the don't know when he will get the keys to the secret locked up money.


Hmmmm   I wonder.

I bet CSW shows up with 100k of a worthless BSV fork to pay out the judgement in the Kleinman court case.

Would not put it past him, and an assertion that Bcash SV is the real bitcoin. 

Accordingly, Wright may end up behind bars sooner than he would have wished.

[VB1001]

Using @100trillionUSD's model, @coinmetrics's data, and @hamal03's codebase, I made a graph of the difference between the stock-to-flow model price and the actual price.
Seen below is using the 14-day moving average for the actual price.

Thoughts below

https://twitter.com/bitstein/status/1200274021348196353

Eventually S2F will be infinite (no producer sell pressure)

And reservation demand will be (if not already) the highest of all assets on the planet (least willingness to sell by prev buyers)

This means price will rise until absolute full adoption in a virtuous cycle

Simple

https://twitter.com/parabolictrav/status/1211117270027493376


I have to admit that I am a bit skeptical that this model is 100% compatible, but neither did I expect the ATH 19K and I arrive.

Anyway, if we are really going in that direction, we should schedule a monthly investment plan to buy a bitcoin amount, no matter how small. (don't wait to buy when the knife is falling.)

If the S2F model is fulfilled in the future, the vast majority can only buy satoshis.

[realr0ach]

bitcoin

Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme.  Anything based on artificial scarcity is a Keynesian scam by default.  As per the Aristotle definition, money is required to be a physical commodity rescource.  Plato claimed money can be an imaginary widget, but Plato was an authoritarian statist who believed the state should control and run everything.  

So Bitcoin doesn't even make sense when Plato's only reason for making imaginary widgets money was to give the state more power.  That's what eventually does happen in Bitcoin too, though.  Because tokens are non-fungible and transaction validators are designed to centralized, making it a permissioned ledger, Chinese social credit score, cashless society slavery system that abolishes the 5th amendment with everything you do being tracked and monitored in real-time.  Good work, slaves.

[realr0ach]

If the S2F model is fulfilled in the future, the vast majority can only buy satoshis.

You debunk yourself with your own posts.  Stock to flow only works on real commodity resources with inelastic demand.  Like, you know, things involving Maslow's hierarchy of needs - objects contributing towards food, clothing, shelter, etc, and on up the pyramid.  If the price of Bitcoin is low, nobody needs it for anything.  If the price is high, they still don't need it.  There is absolutely nothing that's going to cause poor people to form lines to pay you highway robbery prices for imaginary timestamps should you succeed in manipulating the artificial exchange value higher.

Even when the price of Bitcoin was $1000, most boomers looked at it and said "Welp, that ship already sailed.  No way am I going to get ripped off and pay some fool who paid ten cents per coin $1000 each".  The price of Bitcoin going up doesn't increase demand, it decreases it if anything in most cases.  The simple fact that everyone knows people paid either nothing or $2 for their imaginary timestamps they're trying to dump on other people means the price can only go so high before everyone refuses to touch it.  

[VB1001]

Thank you heslo and somac, Fuck you makrospex.

huh?
WTF?!
We all three said the same: Set it to zero.
 

You didn't spoon feed him and were late with the details  

Alright, i see...
I typed my reply in a hurry while the other two WOs were posting already.

EDIT: Backread the thread now and it obviously was the step-by-step google selfhelp instructions from me that set him up.
However, that's how the pro's do it  

If you don't want to help that's fine, but in that case, just don't reply.
Using your precious time to mock me for asking instead of using the same time to answer my question is an asshole move in my book.
I know very little about computers and need to bee spoon fed to get it right, I don't know what I'm doing and really don't want to do something wrong. I can't tell if a online tutorial is correct or not, but I do trust the people in here, that's why I ask. If you knew of any good tutorial, why didn't you direct me to it instead of being a dick?
I don't really see people saying "google it" whenever someone asks about something non computer related so I'm assuming that it's just you computer nerds that have that special asshole gene.

How to win friends and influence people by Arriemoller... read above.    

I'm sure maskorpex just wanted to help him, but at that moment he didn't have time.
It also irritates me when someone tells me to look for the solution on YouTube or Google.

[VB1001]

^^
RR

I suggest for the next year that you achieve some goals:

- Recover your legendary account
- Read the Bitcoin technical document carefully
- Read Frederick Hayek

I think with this you will understand where we are going and something else, HODL

[JayJuanGee]

^^
RR

I suggest for the next year that you achieve some goals:

- Recover your legendary account
- Read the Bitcoin technical document carefully
- Read Frederick Hayek

I think with this you will understand where we are going and something else, HODL

Roach does not want to learn.

He is not here to learn.

He is here to teach us about topics that are largely irrelevant to this thread and/or wrong.

Hopefully, he is getting paid for his efforts, and hopefully, he does not believe the nonsense that he stubbornly and repeatedly repeats here for his troll/shilling thrills.

[Arriemoller]

Thank you heslo and somac, Fuck you makrospex.

huh?
WTF?!
We all three said the same: Set it to zero.
 

You didn't spoon feed him and were late with the details  

Alright, i see...
I typed my reply in a hurry while the other two WOs were posting already.

EDIT: Backread the thread now and it obviously was the step-by-step google selfhelp instructions from me that set him up.
However, that's how the pro's do it  

If you don't want to help that's fine, but in that case, just don't reply.
Using your precious time to mock me for asking instead of using the same time to answer my question is an asshole move in my book.
I know very little about computers and need to bee spoon fed to get it right, I don't know what I'm doing and really don't want to do something wrong. I can't tell if a online tutorial is correct or not, but I do trust the people in here, that's why I ask. If you knew of any good tutorial, why didn't you direct me to it instead of being a dick?
I don't really see people saying "google it" whenever someone asks about something non computer related so I'm assuming that it's just you computer nerds that have that special asshole gene.

How to win friends and influence people by Arriemoller... read above.    

I'm sure maskorpex just wanted to help him, but at that moment he didn't have time.
It also irritates me when someone tells me to look for the solution on YouTube or Google.

He had time to write this.

"OK, here we go:

1. Open google in a browser.
2. type "how to disable superfetch" (omitting the quotes), followed by your windows version
3. hit enter
4. read the first few linked articles and follow the tutorial(s)
5. reboot "

[Icygreen]

^^
RR

I suggest for the next year that you achieve some goals:

- Recover your legendary account
- Read the Bitcoin technical document carefully
- Read Frederick Hayek

I think with this you will understand where we are going and something else, HODL

Roach does not want to learn.

He is not here to learn.

He is here to teach us about topics that are largely irrelevant to this thread and/or wrong.

Hopefully, he is getting paid for his efforts, and hopefully, he does not believe the nonsense that he stubbornly and repeatedly repeats here for his troll/shilling thrills.

I think he might actually believe his ramblings, if so and possibly even if not, mental health risks and concerns should be obvious to any reader.
Perhaps he is being paid, actually, speaking of which, I've always wondered if you are or have been paid to post?
I can't recall the topic ever but it must have been discussed, you know, paid by word perhaps?      Not that you don't come across as genuine, or even helpful, just curious and of course I'd respect your right to privacy.

Edit: goddammit, was that a dick move to ask? Sometimes my filter isn't tuned the same as others.

[fillippone]

Slowly, but steadily.

#bitcoin 200 week moving average has never gone down, currently increasing at $150 (3%) per month

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1210984765739941888?s=21

[JSRAW]

hahaha Icy, let's wait for JJg

[Findingnemo]

Slowly, but steadily.

#bitcoin 200 week moving average has never gone down, currently increasing at $150 (3%) per month

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1210984765739941888?s=21

Another proof for, why should we HODL much longer.
New year is just ahead couple of days,what you guys are planning to do on the beginning day of 2020.

Don't say bang bang.

[Globb0]

Welcomed everyone with rosé Dom Perignon 2005....

Omg... please tell me that isn't Dom P in those glasses with those 3 small ice cubes in each.... (it doesn't appear to be)

You want to use no ice or BIG ice on anything that's over $100 a bottle.

I personally use round ice balls... they are always a bigger hit than the juice inside the glass because people are monkeys.

These are what I use and strongly suggest https://pappyco.com/products/sphere-ice-molds-set.

I also STRONGLY suggest DomP's 1996 rose. 

You can make these ice shapes in a childs water bomb balloon. just freeze a handful.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Another proof for, why should we HODL much longer.
New year is just ahead couple of days,what you guys are planning to do on the beginning day of 2020.

Don't say bang bang.

[Arriemoller]

Bom bom then?

[Findingnemo]

Another proof for, why should we HODL much longer.
New year is just ahead couple of days,what you guys are planning to do on the beginning day of 2020.

Don't say bang bang.

LFC's gf is tempting already for that special bang bang  

Bom bom then?

Possibly because I am kind of guy likes to bang in the ass, let's try something new this year bom bom on her big B**BS.

[Globb0]

I wish, it keeps going offline at the moment.