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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21576665 times)
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Millionero
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December 29, 2019, 03:01:32 AM
Last edit: December 29, 2019, 03:15:00 AM by Millionero

There is a formula (Klein Kelly criterion-see wiki) which describes the % of portfolio one should dedicate to a bet.
The problem is-it involves assigning a probability to a trade success, which is almost always an impossible task.
Example: on a trade with 60% success one should invest 20% of the portfolio; trade with 70% success, 40% of portfolio, etc, etc.
Mind you, these %% are "real" numbers, not imaginary ones.
Also, NO MARGIN.

EDIT:
Formula...Fraction of portfolio to invest (in decimals)=[2X(chance of trade success in decimals)]-1
Therefore, 0% to invest when 50:50 (or lower) and 100% to invest when 100% chance of success.
Everything else-in between.

Actually, at 50:50 Klein Kelly says "invest nothing", right - but if the odds are under 50-50, the Klein criterion suggest the opposite bet should be taken, with an amount again determined by the formula you quoted (it will come out as a negative fraction).

Example: on a bet with 40:60 odds (that's less than 0.5), the criterion suggests 2 * (0.40) - 1 = 0.8 - 1 = -0.2,
that is, invest 20% on the OPPOSITE bet (if anything like that exists).

Thanks, great qualification (re the opposite bet)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

The Kelly criterion applies to "simple bets with two outcomes, one involving losing the entire amount bet, and the other involving winning the bet amount multiplied by the payoff odds" (quoted wiki)

The Kelly criterion may be used in investing, but its application there is much more involved than the simple betting forumula.  Wiki has more info.
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December 29, 2019, 03:59:05 AM

1... Bitcoin, legacy.
3... Bitcoin, can be multisig legacy or wrapped segwit, still bitcoin.
bc1.. Bitcoin, segwit, still bitcoin.

All Bitcoin.
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December 29, 2019, 04:08:59 AM



Trying to make any sense out of this clusterfuck. So apparently (and I forgot about this) Bitcoin SV did fork from Bitcoin Cash. Now, on BCH addresses:
Quote
When Bitcoin Cash (BCH) was created, it shared the same address format as bitcoin. In an effort to alleviate any confusion for users of both digital currencies, BCH developers later proposed a new unique format for BCH addresses called CashAddr. This new address format will help users more easily distinguish between bitcoin and BCH addresses. The updated format only changes how BCH addresses are displayed, not the underlying private and public keys.

Each BCH address also has a “legacy address,” which is its corresponding bitcoin address. Going forward, the Blockchain wallet will only display the corresponding CashAddr addresses. Users can continue to send and receive using legacy BCH addresses, but we recommend using the new format for an optimal user experience.

So the way I see it is that, people affected by this, will be the ones that had unclaimed BCH which remained in legacy addresses, but only the amounts that be sitting on p2sh... so to put it simple, any unclaimed amounts sitting on addresses that don't begin with 1 can be stolen. This proves in practice, an scenario in which the schelling point to hold your coins is addresses that begin with 1, and nothing else. Nobody will ever be stupid enough to break backwards-compatibility with addresses that begin with 1 (the original format) so seems reasonable to hold your coins in such format.

Now, if you bother with the clusterfuck that is claiming coins from a fork, then go for it, but a lot of people may simply don't even care they lose those coins all things considered. I mean, I would hate giving those guys "free money", but at this point I can't be fucking bothered with any of this nonsense, im trying to relax and enjoy the holidays, last thing on my mind is having to deal with this insanity to be frank. Remember that it requires that you move the entirety of your holdings, then download some dodgy software, then have to sync the entire blockchain of said altcoin, copy the empty wallet after you've moved your funds in there, and finally dump the damn thing. All of this without screwing up in the process.

Personally, pereira4, it seems to me that in your assessment of the circumstances, you are giving way too fucking much credit to the value of any fork that Bcash SV or any other possible future dweeb might engage in.  They can make any fucking rules that they want regarding their future fork of a fork of a fork.  Who cares?  You still have your bitcoin and your bcash, and your other forks.  The only ones that you do not have are the ones related to whatever fork the forkeners are working from and whatever value (hopefully gravitating towards zero) that fork might have currently or at some future time.  Best to dump it as soon as possible if you have not already dumped it, but like you also suggested, it might not even be worth claiming it. If you have bcash regular (aka abc) that you still have not claimed then why the fuck would you try to figure out those bcash abc in order to figure out the bcash sv portion of that?  Makes little to no sense.
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December 29, 2019, 04:48:55 AM

Some criteria about Bitcoin bullish ..

Quote
Are we in a $BTC bear market?

No, we are in the re-accumulation phase of a bull market.


Source:
Quote

Quote
History repeating per Woo’s analysis will mean Bitcoin will burst higher by the second half of 2020, meaning BTC is likely to set new all-time highs a few months or a year after tha



Quote
BTC is showing signs that it will soon undergo a second mark-up rally ahead of May 2020’s halving.

Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/12/29/bitcoin-midst-bull-market-on-chain-analysis-suggests/
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December 29, 2019, 05:34:07 AM
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There is a formula (Klein criterion-see wiki) which describes the % of portfolio one should dedicate to a bet.
The problem is-it involves assigning a probability to a trade success, which is almost always an impossible task.
Example: on a trade with 60% success one should invest 20% of the portfolio; trade with 70% success, 40% of portfolio, etc, etc.
Mind you, these %% are "real" numbers, not imaginary ones.
Also, NO MARGIN.

EDIT:
Formula...Fraction of portfolio to invest (in decimals)=[2X(chance of trade success in decimals)]-1
Therefore, 0% to invest when 50:50 (or lower) and 100% to invest when 100% chance of success.
Everything else-in between.

Actually, at 50:50 Klein says "invest nothing", right - but if the odds are under 50-50, the Klein criterion suggest the opposite bet should be taken, with an amount again determined by the formula you quoted (it will come out as a negative fraction).

Example: on a bet with 40:60 odds (that's less than 0.5), the criterion suggests 2 * (0.40) - 1 = 0.8 - 1 = -0.2,
that is, invest 20% on the OPPOSITE bet (if anything like that exists).

I had not heard about these various Klein formula calculations, yet after your discussion of the formula, d_eddie, it causes me to believe that inadvertently I had been following some kinds of similar formula calculations, and yeah it is really difficult to place odds on expectations of events in terms of how far up and how much time that it might take to achieve certain ranges of upside possibilities. 

Frequently, i suggest that in the short term I don't know about bitcoin's direction and it could be 50/50, for either direction, but surely I am not asserting to make short term BTC bets. 

But in the long run, I gravitate towards the bet on bitcoin as an UP, meaning that in my thinking the odds for UP are more favorable than the odds for down, but still my assignment of probabilities are relatively whimpy and I am also still whimpy about the timeline, even though there have always been some discussions of the Garner Hype cycle that have been more organized into stock to flow models and four year fractals and s-curve adoptions that are largely just continuing to build on past models. 

So, if any of us HODLers are suggesting that others (no coiners, and precoiners) consider getting off zero, and that they consider 1% to 10% in bitcoin to be relatively prudent allocations, they still would not be assigning high value to its likely long term success, but maybe gravitating towards 52% to 70% confidence when they are assigning within that kind of range.  I am thinking that my investment into bitcoin in the early stages had gravitated towards 13.5% investment which would have been around a 77% confidence in the long term success of bitcoin?

I am not sure if this is making any sense, and so maybe I have said enough because, even if we frequently have a variety of models that provide us both confidence levels and numbers to shoot for, we are also frequently just ballparking our estimations anyhow based on a variety of longer term factors, to the extent that we are attempting to focus on longer rather than shorter term BTC investment horizons.

Furthermore, once my bitcoin portfolio became decently profitable, I no longer considered my motivations for my initial BTC investment because my views of the fundamentals did not really change, but I suppose going from an accumulation stage to a maintenance stage can also be factored into considerations of future BTC performance probabilities, too.... and odds for which whether a position will become unprofitable at some point in the timeline of possible cashing out.

And my assignment of future success probabilities did not really change either, except that I gained some additional confidence with the passage of time, Lindy effects and also just getting through certain attack vectors such as the late 2017 hardfork threats that ended up really not being much of any kind of meaningful threat to bitcoin, and of course, there continues to be FUD spreading and other allegations of competition from various other shit projects, such as ETH camps.

Calculations about the future do seem to change when in maintenance or even maybe going into liquidation phases and maybe there continue to be calculations of any risks that the value of my BTC holdings could go back into an unprofitable of less profitable range which could motivate some cashing out in the short term....   
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December 29, 2019, 05:39:32 AM
Last edit: December 29, 2019, 05:52:17 AM by Biodom

There is a formula (Klein Kelly criterion-see wiki) which describes the % of portfolio one should dedicate to a bet.
The problem is-it involves assigning a probability to a trade success, which is almost always an impossible task.
Example: on a trade with 60% success one should invest 20% of the portfolio; trade with 70% success, 40% of portfolio, etc, etc.
Mind you, these %% are "real" numbers, not imaginary ones.
Also, NO MARGIN.

EDIT:
Formula...Fraction of portfolio to invest (in decimals)=[2X(chance of trade success in decimals)]-1
Therefore, 0% to invest when 50:50 (or lower) and 100% to invest when 100% chance of success.
Everything else-in between.

Actually, at 50:50 Klein Kelly says "invest nothing", right - but if the odds are under 50-50, the Klein criterion suggest the opposite bet should be taken, with an amount again determined by the formula you quoted (it will come out as a negative fraction).

Example: on a bet with 40:60 odds (that's less than 0.5), the criterion suggests 2 * (0.40) - 1 = 0.8 - 1 = -0.2,
that is, invest 20% on the OPPOSITE bet (if anything like that exists).

Thanks, great qualification (re the opposite bet)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

The Kelly criterion applies to "simple bets with two outcomes, one involving losing the entire amount bet, and the other involving winning the bet amount multiplied by the payoff odds" (quoted wiki)

The Kelly criterion may be used in investing, but its application there is much more involved than the simple betting forumula.  Wiki has more info.

you're right, bro (re name).
I have some kind of 'last name dyslexia' or something...and I 'infected' d_eddie with it, lol
the formula was right, though.

Darned it, maybe it is another case of "Berenstein Bears" or was it "Berenstain Bears"?
https://news.avclub.com/how-you-spell-the-berenstain-bears-could-be-proof-of-1798282836

<foreboding music>
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December 29, 2019, 06:08:52 AM


Actually more reason that you should not either push the red button or employ option 3.

Hey, mindrust, I think that you already know that I don't give two shits about what you do,...

It just adds entertainment to the thread I believe.

Like the guy who sold his house and bought bitcoins back in the day, when did that happen in 2013?... Lemme check google...

Aaand found it:

I'm All In - Sold My House! I was close it was from 2014.

Dude is a multimillionaire now, if he hedl.

At that time he didn't know what was waiting for him neither... just like me or any other people right now. He did something crazy. It was entertaining. It happens that I'm kinda in a mood for some extreme sports too.




Elwar did something very similar in about mid-2016 if I recall correctly, which involved using the proceeds from his house to buy a decent stash of extra BTC, exponentially increasing his BTC stash at that time... when BTC prices were in the mid-$600s, if i recall correctly, and soon thereafter bitfinex crashed, and many people were calling him stupid for several months; however, by the time we got into early 2017, BTC prices never returned to those $600-ish prices, and his gamble paid off quite handsomely, as we know how the remainder of 2017 ended up playing out.. even with all of the ongoing proclamations of BTC's imminent death through that time.
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December 29, 2019, 06:36:32 AM

Thank you heslo and somac, Fuck you makrospex.

huh?
WTF?!
We all three said the same: Set it to zero.
 Huh
You didn't spoon feed him and were late with the details  Roll Eyes

Alright, i see...
I typed my reply in a hurry while the other two WOs were posting already.

EDIT: Backread the thread now and it obviously was the step-by-step google selfhelp instructions from me that set him up.
However, that's how the pro's do it  Grin

If you don't want to help that's fine, but in that case, just don't reply.
Using your precious time to mock me for asking instead of using the same time to answer my question is an asshole move in my book.
I know very little about computers and need to bee spoon fed to get it right, I don't know what I'm doing and really don't want to do something wrong. I can't tell if a online tutorial is correct or not, but I do trust the people in here, that's why I ask. If you knew of any good tutorial, why didn't you direct me to it instead of being a dick?
I don't really see people saying "google it" whenever someone asks about something non computer related so I'm assuming that it's just you computer nerds that have that special asshole gene.

How to win friends and influence people by Arriemoller... read above.     Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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December 29, 2019, 07:09:30 AM

CSW fork steal accident is conveniently timed close to the don't know when he will get the keys to the secret locked up money.


Hmmmm   I wonder.

I bet CSW shows up with 100k of a worthless BSV fork to pay out the judgement in the Kleinman court case.

Would not put it past him, and an assertion that Bcash SV is the real bitcoin. 

Accordingly, Wright may end up behind bars sooner than he would have wished.
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December 29, 2019, 07:15:06 AM





Quote
Using @100trillionUSD's model, @coinmetrics's data, and @hamal03's codebase, I made a graph of the difference between the stock-to-flow model price and the actual price.
Seen below is using the 14-day moving average for the actual price.

Thoughts below
https://twitter.com/bitstein/status/1200274021348196353



Quote
Eventually S2F will be infinite (no producer sell pressure)

And reservation demand will be (if not already) the highest of all assets on the planet (least willingness to sell by prev buyers)

This means price will rise until absolute full adoption in a virtuous cycle

Simple
https://twitter.com/parabolictrav/status/1211117270027493376


I have to admit that I am a bit skeptical that this model is 100% compatible, but neither did I expect the ATH 19K and I arrive.

Anyway, if we are really going in that direction, we should schedule a monthly investment plan to buy a bitcoin amount, no matter how small. (don't wait to buy when the knife is falling.)

If the S2F model is fulfilled in the future, the vast majority can only buy satoshis.
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December 29, 2019, 07:15:20 AM

bitcoin



Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme.  Anything based on artificial scarcity is a Keynesian scam by default.  As per the Aristotle definition, money is required to be a physical commodity rescource.  Plato claimed money can be an imaginary widget, but Plato was an authoritarian statist who believed the state should control and run everything.  

So Bitcoin doesn't even make sense when Plato's only reason for making imaginary widgets money was to give the state more power.  That's what eventually does happen in Bitcoin too, though.  Because tokens are non-fungible and transaction validators are designed to centralized, making it a permissioned ledger, Chinese social credit score, cashless society slavery system that abolishes the 5th amendment with everything you do being tracked and monitored in real-time.  Good work, slaves.
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December 29, 2019, 07:50:22 AM

If the S2F model is fulfilled in the future, the vast majority can only buy satoshis.

You debunk yourself with your own posts.  Stock to flow only works on real commodity resources with inelastic demand.  Like, you know, things involving Maslow's hierarchy of needs - objects contributing towards food, clothing, shelter, etc, and on up the pyramid.  If the price of Bitcoin is low, nobody needs it for anything.  If the price is high, they still don't need it.  There is absolutely nothing that's going to cause poor people to form lines to pay you highway robbery prices for imaginary timestamps should you succeed in manipulating the artificial exchange value higher.

Even when the price of Bitcoin was $1000, most boomers looked at it and said "Welp, that ship already sailed.  No way am I going to get ripped off and pay some fool who paid ten cents per coin $1000 each".  The price of Bitcoin going up doesn't increase demand, it decreases it if anything in most cases.  The simple fact that everyone knows people paid either nothing or $2 for their imaginary timestamps they're trying to dump on other people means the price can only go so high before everyone refuses to touch it.  
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December 29, 2019, 07:52:11 AM

Thank you heslo and somac, Fuck you makrospex.

huh?
WTF?!
We all three said the same: Set it to zero.
 Huh
You didn't spoon feed him and were late with the details  Roll Eyes

Alright, i see...
I typed my reply in a hurry while the other two WOs were posting already.

EDIT: Backread the thread now and it obviously was the step-by-step google selfhelp instructions from me that set him up.
However, that's how the pro's do it  Grin

If you don't want to help that's fine, but in that case, just don't reply.
Using your precious time to mock me for asking instead of using the same time to answer my question is an asshole move in my book.
I know very little about computers and need to bee spoon fed to get it right, I don't know what I'm doing and really don't want to do something wrong. I can't tell if a online tutorial is correct or not, but I do trust the people in here, that's why I ask. If you knew of any good tutorial, why didn't you direct me to it instead of being a dick?
I don't really see people saying "google it" whenever someone asks about something non computer related so I'm assuming that it's just you computer nerds that have that special asshole gene.

How to win friends and influence people by Arriemoller... read above.     Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy



I'm sure maskorpex just wanted to help him, but at that moment he didn't have time.
It also irritates me when someone tells me to look for the solution on YouTube or Google. Wink
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December 29, 2019, 08:14:41 AM
Last edit: December 29, 2019, 08:35:31 AM by VB1001

^^
RR

I suggest for the next year that you achieve some goals:

- Recover your legendary account
- Read the Bitcoin technical document carefully
- Read Frederick Hayek

I think with this you will understand where we are going and something else, HODL
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December 29, 2019, 08:38:42 AM

^^
RR

I suggest for the next year that you achieve some goals:

- Recover your legendary account
- Read the Bitcoin technical document carefully
- Read Frederick Hayek

I think with this you will understand where we are going and something else, HODL


Roach does not want to learn.

He is not here to learn.

He is here to teach us about topics that are largely irrelevant to this thread and/or wrong.

Hopefully, he is getting paid for his efforts, and hopefully, he does not believe the nonsense that he stubbornly and repeatedly repeats here for his troll/shilling thrills.
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December 29, 2019, 09:02:57 AM
Merited by VB1001 (1)

Thank you heslo and somac, Fuck you makrospex.

huh?
WTF?!
We all three said the same: Set it to zero.
 Huh
You didn't spoon feed him and were late with the details  Roll Eyes

Alright, i see...
I typed my reply in a hurry while the other two WOs were posting already.

EDIT: Backread the thread now and it obviously was the step-by-step google selfhelp instructions from me that set him up.
However, that's how the pro's do it  Grin

If you don't want to help that's fine, but in that case, just don't reply.
Using your precious time to mock me for asking instead of using the same time to answer my question is an asshole move in my book.
I know very little about computers and need to bee spoon fed to get it right, I don't know what I'm doing and really don't want to do something wrong. I can't tell if a online tutorial is correct or not, but I do trust the people in here, that's why I ask. If you knew of any good tutorial, why didn't you direct me to it instead of being a dick?
I don't really see people saying "google it" whenever someone asks about something non computer related so I'm assuming that it's just you computer nerds that have that special asshole gene.

How to win friends and influence people by Arriemoller... read above.     Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy



I'm sure maskorpex just wanted to help him, but at that moment he didn't have time.
It also irritates me when someone tells me to look for the solution on YouTube or Google. Wink

He had time to write this.

"OK, here we go:

1. Open google in a browser.
2. type "how to disable superfetch" (omitting the quotes), followed by your windows version
3. hit enter
4. read the first few linked articles and follow the tutorial(s)
5. reboot Grin"
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December 29, 2019, 09:15:09 AM

^^
RR

I suggest for the next year that you achieve some goals:

- Recover your legendary account
- Read the Bitcoin technical document carefully
- Read Frederick Hayek

I think with this you will understand where we are going and something else, HODL


Roach does not want to learn.

He is not here to learn.

He is here to teach us about topics that are largely irrelevant to this thread and/or wrong.

Hopefully, he is getting paid for his efforts, and hopefully, he does not believe the nonsense that he stubbornly and repeatedly repeats here for his troll/shilling thrills.
I think he might actually believe his ramblings, if so and possibly even if not, mental health risks and concerns should be obvious to any reader.
Perhaps he is being paid, actually, speaking of which, I've always wondered if you are or have been paid to post?
I can't recall the topic ever but it must have been discussed, you know, paid by word perhaps?  Wink  Cheesy  Not that you don't come across as genuine, or even helpful, just curious and of course I'd respect your right to privacy.

Edit: goddammit, was that a dick move to ask? Sometimes my filter isn't tuned the same as others.
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December 29, 2019, 09:24:09 AM
Merited by LUCKMCFLY (1), Findingnemo (1)

Slowly, but steadily.

Quote

#bitcoin 200 week moving average has never gone down, currently increasing at $150 (3%) per month




https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1210984765739941888?s=21
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December 29, 2019, 09:32:39 AM

hahaha Icy, let's wait for JJg
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December 29, 2019, 09:52:10 AM

Slowly, but steadily.

Quote

#bitcoin 200 week moving average has never gone down, currently increasing at $150 (3%) per month




https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1210984765739941888?s=21
Another proof for, why should we HODL much longer. Smiley

New year is just ahead couple of days,what you guys are planning to do on the beginning day of 2020.

Don't say bang bang. Grin
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